The pendulum of popularity has swung back again in Hillary Clinton's favor and Barack Obama could now find himself faced with the biggest political challenge of his life. He seemed an unstoppable force just a week ago, surging in popularity ahead of Clinton. But with loses in the Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island primaries, Obama has faltered and stumbled, unable to deliver the knock-out punch to Clinton's quest for the presidency.
Obama won the Vermont primary and still remains a formidable rival, but analysts are now wondering whether his message of hope is losing its luster. There were indications heading into the primaries that Clinton's aggressive positioning of her experience versus his inexperience was gaining traction. Voters had begun to question whether there was any real substance to Obama's rhetoric, and Clinton was hitting hard on that element of doubt.
Meanwhile, a series of issues have sprung up around Obama about his ambiguous support/criticism of Israel, his odd choice of words addressing foreign policy issues, his seeming unwillingness to completely distance himself from Nation of Islam's Minister Louis Farrakhan, his true religious affiliation, and even something as absurd as the fact that his middle name is Hussein! It is the nature - and danger - of courting voters who respond to shiny words of promise and hope that these same voters can quickly turn against you for the most trivial things.
In the meantime, high profile superdelegates who recently abandoned the Clinton camp to hitch their wagon to a relentlessly surging Obama are now beginning to feel the chill of remorse. They realize they may have torpedoed their political futures and could now pay the penalty for their all too-hasty betrayal of Clinton's confidence in their support.
The Democratic candidates now head for the finish line and the globes are off. For the Democrats, it's anybody's race to win or lose.
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Mario's column, Point of Convergence, published to Gather Essentials: Politics, looks at the American political landscape and the people and events that make the news. Mario is a culture trend expert who frequently speaks on cultural, political and social issues that impact modern life. Keep up with Mario's other postings and Gather activity by joining his Gather network. Just click popculture and select the orange "Connect" button on the left side of the page.
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Comments: 38
Big mistak B.O.
I can tell you that I wouldn't vote for Hillary Clinton if she was the only candidate and I'm certainly not thrilled with John McCain.
I honestly believe that these are the weakest choices we've had for a presidential election since 1976 -- and you know where that one got us.
Resume taking your meds, sheesh!
OH: OBAMA -9
RI: OBAMA -5
TX P: OBAMA -2
TX C: OBAMA +9
VT: OBAMA +3
A net loss of four delegates. He will make this up in Wyoming this Saturday. This is a race for delegates folks. She changes the rules and defines victory as she see fit.
Please he has more delegates, has won more states, and will win more votes when the dust settles.
Political future of Ted Kennedy, Rockerfeller, Chris Dodd, John Kerry. LOL. Are you kidding me? These guys are the DEMOCRATIC PARTY. Teddy Kennedy does not answer to anyone. He is a senator for LIFE.
The other one who rolled with Obama, their districts went Obama way for most of them. If they don't their political future is in jeopardy. They will be voted out if they don't support Obama!
WEAK WEAK WEAK argument, my friend
Alan, you're right, Obama has more delegates right now, but we're talking about momentum; public perception vs. point of fact. If you'll recall, Obama was behind on the delegate count to Clinton, but once he gained momentum, people saw him as the winner and started backing him. That's we're Clinton is now. Despite the fact that he is still clearly ahead, everybody's talking about Clinton's win..the media is already treating him like the loser. The media doesn't work with facts.
It wont cost Kennedy a thing! The Clintons with all influence they've got can't touch Teddy. In fact, Teddy's move gave the others the guts to move. he's been a senator forever, his district loves him and BIG democratic ideas in the senate like healthcare go through Teddy. He is a democratic heavy weight and the Dodd, Kerry, Rockerfeller (Chairman Senate Intelligence Committee).
She's got some mojo because of perception. But at the end of the day it's about delegates and I don't think the people in Wyoming watch much TV. he will win on Saturday, then there is Mississippi. Her campaign is "skipping" those 2, and a mojo cannot last six weeks. Penn is on April 22. No mojo can last that long.
On the subject of Xeroxing, since you brought it up, why can't she Xerox her tax returns?
Her 2006 tax returns. John McCain released his. Obama released his. The Clintons always release theirs before they run for office. Why not this time. It's a matter of transparency, and no small matter, for all candidates to tell us how much money they make, where they invest their money, for conflict of interests (i.e. Having lobbyists in your campaign and you heavily invest in their stocks).
TAX RETURNS YOU CAN XEROX INDEED
Who said this? Do you have sources?
Also, she did say she would release them. Like all of us, she needs time to get all her records together for the accountant, but she's been busy.
Sandy, it's all obviously a game. Superdelegates who very publicly shifted their support to Obama were trying to score some brownie points with him - it's hard to accept they had truly noble motives.
Release 2006 returns now. Before couple of weeks ago they were firm that would not release them until the primary is over? WHY?
Now they pick April 15 by miracle. The GOP would be jumping all over the place if this was in the general election. Obama camp made a big mistake by not bringing this up last week. They wanted to play nice. Done playing nice. No personal/family attacks but the returns need to be released. It goes to the core principle of integrity. As they said, the press needs to press Obama on Rezko too. Everybody comes clean now, NO EXCEPTION!
What makes you say this? It isn't hard at all for me to trust their motives. What exactly makes you think differently? Which of them to you think were trying to score brownie points, and for what would they need those points?
Sandy, it's all obviously a game. Mario, no it is NOT obviously a game to me. Please explain why you say this.
This will be nasty, nasty. Everything is fair game, even old scandals. They went to Indonesia to talk to Obama's middle school teachers. Let's go to Arkansas talk to the rape victim and prosecution of the case where Clinton helped let an ALLEGED rapist walk. Let's talk about Obama's church and statements his reverend made. Let's take another look of the Clintons income, Bill Clinton dealings with Kazakhstan. Tony Rezko. Peter Paul. Bring it all out and let's see if it will serve the PEOPLE.
But no you want the people to assume that Clinton has been vetted (aka we all know she is not a saint). Let's dirty up Obama. NO! Bring all the stories out, simultaneously and let the voters decide who is dirtiest, and let's pick the lesser of two evils. That's fair, wouldn't you say?
If you want to see what's happening with superdelegates and the fact that now they're suddenly having second thoughts, check here:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/bloomberg/ascl6e69rqry
Reading the article, you'll see that their decisions are purely politically motivated.
I think that if Florida gets seated at the convention that Hillary could take the nomination.
When the average democratic voter is made aware of this, Senator Obama and CNN's attempt to pettifog the issue will be exposed for what it is,
sour grape politicking which is fine and dandy but the dog wont hunt for long
The Race is over short of a heart attack, Hillary Rodam Clinton will be the Next President,
If Barack can pull his head out of the clouds, he should focus on locking up the veep spot, and lets not forget people, I was a Joe Biden supporter when the season started and I am just telling ya all the way it's going to be, no need to flame the messenger
What a shock. The democratic party is about to be destroyed and a Clinton is a major player. Surprise, surprise. Who would have thought?
Excellent and well written article! Clinton is still in the game and Pennsylvania could play a big role when they vote. That's about the last big state.
I don't care how nasty it gets, nothing in this race will compare to the nasty that either candidate will have to face from the Republicans and the swiftboaters. The successful candidate better be able to take it!
Hillary's problems and history are pretty well known. The Republicans spent eighty million dollars to dig out any dirt they could find and Hillary was exonerated. Sure, they'll dig that up again but the voters will recognize it as yesterdays news.
Obama is a great inspirational speaker and he can be more effective going solo - in politics and as a private citizen.
Finish your senate term, run for Governor of Illinois, win in a landslide, come back and run for the presidency with the same platform as an outsider. You can even claim that Washington is broken that is why you left it because it needs to fixed from the bottom up.
8 years is not the worst thing. It can be 4 because McCain has good chances. If McCain beats Clinton, nobody will dispute Obama if he comes back. Unless he was on the ticket.
I only see reasons not to join the ticket. You will be blamed for anything bad. Ask Al Gore. The Clintons bring trouble wherever they go along with good stuff. Stay away from them Obama, Stay away.
Obama is at the peak of his personal popularity. That is why he chose to run this time. Like George will said "when you've got the girl up on her tip toes, it's only proper to kess her!" And that is where Obama fit into the picture.
He might well take a vice president position as that may well be the highest office he ever has the chance of getting if he is not nominated this time. And, should he bet the nomination and not win, it will be a long time before either party nominates a member of an ethnic minority again, setting that movement back.
Frankly, Al Gore didn't necessarily loose the 1980 election. He just didn't get the supreme court nod. However, he did win the majority of the votes of the people! And Obama could well run and win following a successful Clinton presidency. You have no way of knowing Clinton would survive even four years, and Obama would be president. Lots of vice presidents have become president due to death.
I think coming back with executive experience instead of just legislative might help. It's a tough bet, but a bet that can pay big if McCain defeats Hillary. The democrats will be power hungry and turn to the guy who almost get the nod last time.
That said, I cannot conceive how he will not be the nominee. Strange things happen and he is running against the Clintons.
I don't think she made a dent at all.
Actually, Hillary might fit the role of VP better. The role of attack dog seems to match her campaigning style. She's a self described "fighter" and could model herself as a Democratic Dick Cheney.