In my last article for Tom's Picks for Week 5 in the NFL I said I'd publish an article on how to bet using the point spread. A VERY different thing than just picking the winner and loser.
Below is a table for this week's games with the ODDS as of Saturday OCT 6, 2007 from LEROY's Sports Book in Carson City, NV. There are several oddsmakers that publish odds and I prefer the Cal-Neva of RENO Odds but I was unable to get those in time for this article.
| TEAM | Spread | Total |
| Carolina | ||
| New Orleans | -3 1/2 | 44 1/2 |
| Jacksonville | -2 1/2 | 39 1/2 |
| Kansas City | ||
| Detroit | ||
| Washington | -3 1/2 | 46 1/2 |
| Atlanta | ||
| Tennessee | -8 | 40 1/2 |
| Miami | ||
| Houston | -6 | 43 1/2 |
| Seattle | ||
| Pittsburg | -5 1/2 | 39 |
| Cleveland | ||
| New England | -16 1/2 | 48 |
| Arizona | -4 | 41 |
| Saint Louis | ||
| New York Jets | ||
| New York Giants | -3 1/2 | 41 1/2 |
| Tampa Bay | ||
| Indianapolis | -10 1/2 | 46 1/2 |
| San Diego | ||
| Denver | -1 | 42 1/2 |
| Baltimore | -3 1/2 | 35 1/2 |
| San Francisco | ||
| Chicago | ||
| Green Bay | -3 | 41 |
| Dallas | -10 1/2 | 44 |
| Buffalo |
The team listed second is the home team in each game. The point spreads shown are in line with the favored team. For example, in the hotly debated Chicago - Green Bay game the Packers are the home team and are shown as having a point spread of minus three meaning that the odds-makers favor them to win by at least 3 points.
IF you pick the Packers (and BET on the game) the Packers will HAVE to win by FOUR points or more in order for you to win. If the final score is 27 - 24 the WIN on this card will be Chicago.
The number of games won by 3 points or less is growing each week and each season in the NFL. Close games are becoming commonplace so the odds-makers have been putting the 1/2 point on small point spreads for those casinos that call a tie a push, i.e., no one wins. Most casinos will say if you do NOT beat the spread (whether it is 3 or 3 1/2) you LOSE. In this case if GB wins by 3 although it's a tie, most casinos will say you LOSE.
In games with large spreads, like the Cleveland/New England game it is best to pick the underdog. MOST teams in the NFL sit on a lead with a running game to use up the clock rather than try to pile on the points like some college teams do to get higher rankings. So if NE gets ahead by 14 they may start to use up the clock instead of trying to drive down the field and if they were to win by 14 Cleveland would be the winner on this card.
I'll apply these odds to the picks in Nalita's article:
http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474977138689
When the final scores are in we can see who did well in the picks that are shown. THEN I will apply the odds and see if the totals change due to the point spreads.
I maintain it is much harder to pick the winners when the point spreads are involved.
Lisa: Lisa, aka ladyluna, Frost seems to think this is not a tough task. She says:
Picking against the spread isn't so bad, you just have to decide if they are good enough to pull it off, just like a w/l thing.
OK Lisa, we'll see if it works out that way for Week Five. Who knows, maybe Lisa is a shark?
Thank you Lisa for letting me quote you in this article.
This tomcat would love to dance on the ceiling laughing but he'll settle for rolling on the floor. I call him
DOCLHAO
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Comments: 25
A friend of mine and I used to pick games based on the spread every week (I had cable then, so I got to see more games and had a better idea of the teams) and I had a better record then the guys two years running. Shark? nah, just lucky. It is when money is involved that it gets ugly...LOL
A charm for sure.
Gather you alumnus buddy Jason hasn't been on here. He is a gambler to his heart, will gamble on the time of day. Tom how could you? Couldn't the 49ers have been left out of this?
Haven't they been through enough.
Remember the lyrics,
Where have you gone Joe DiMaggio, our nation turns its lonely eyes to you!
UPDATE!
Where have you gone Joe MONTANA, our nation turns its lonely eyes to you!
Where have you gone Ed De Bartolo, our nation turns its lonely eyes to you!
:=[
Still not deep enough to handle a lot of injuries, or KEY injuries. Smith getting hurt at this point in his development is a real blow to this team. He has been getting better at reading defenses and seeing open receivers and running but an injury is the pro team's downfall in most cases.
We know a Montana or Young comes along only once in a great while so wishing for another QB like one of them is really wishing but Smith can be very good - he has the tools.
Eddie D is the missing MONEY!!!! and the dedication to WINNING!!
Missing ...
Good luck
E.~
http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?articleId=281474977178520
Since everyone (you and me excluded) is into points these days I thought I would bring some your way.
This is your last published article. How about publishing another. This one is very unique and very interesting. We need more like this one, don't you think?
What's up with that Tom?
Tell me?
Inquiring minds really want to know, huh?
We often wonder just who let the dogs out when they should remained tied up!
I am speaking of Lawrence H, and Firesmith!
Tie them up, Tom d.!
Do one of your great articles for us!
Had to get a holler in there from your biggest little admirer!
She is going to be a football player, I think!
Once she gets started, she does not know how to stop!
Sort of like her relative, you know the one -- the NOLA one,
The one you said could not be caught! (not me) the male one!
There is only one person who can stop her, and that is her Na na!
Even then she puts up a good fight,
but she is NEVER down for the count
just when you think YOU have won
you turn around and there she is smiling innocently and says,
"Hello!"
She wants you to know that you have won. . .NOTHING!!!
You cannot let her down, Tom d.
She is only 2 years old and she now looks up to YOU!
Icky goo goo!
Just write the article, Tom d.
Write the article.
Show Lawrence and Firesmith the True Grit!
What is next?
No Santa Claus, Tom d.?
No Easter Bunny?
Will you tell her that her Elmo really does NOT talk and do the hokey pokey?
Or that the Grinch truly did steal Christmas?
Where does this business end?
Just write the article, Tom d.!
Let Lawrence H., and Firesmith be the bad guys to wide-eyed little girls,
but you?
Do not take away their icky goo goo!
Thanx for the comment on the pic! Actually, my friend was REALLY skinny when she got pregnant (after too, impresivly enough). Like, if she was standing away from you, you would guess she was pregnant.
lol