(Author's Note: this is a revised version of a previous article I wrote, entitled "Jump the Shark." The heavy editing and new twists should make it rather interesting for you. Enjoy. -JMC )
A year or so ago, with the approval ratings at an all-time low, conservatives cringed, knowing full-well it was going to get worse.
Sure enough, today, even the incomparable Tony Snow can't bail the ballast faster than it's being pumped into a listing ship by an administration which seems lost at sea.
Congress is out for blood, and the White House keeps handing them new ammo with ScooterGate; a Habeas Corpus-hating Attorney General who can't seem to recall his way out of a paper bag; a trounced illegal alien bill, and so much more.
You know it's bad when the Republicans attempt to defend themselves by reminding folks that the Democratic-run Congress has an even lower approval rating. It begs the solution of tossing out both parties and starting over, doesn't it?
Meanwhile, here sits a President whose approval rating couldn't win him a comped meal at the local IHOP, yet wouldn't have to ask twice for a slice of Impeach-me Pie at Baker's Square.
Shark-Jump, Anyone?
Needless to say, the Republicans have set one ugly table for themselves. Hey, I'm no professional pundit, but I think it's safe to say they probably jumped the shark. They poisoned their own well and lost their loyal audience by allowing Dick Cheney, Carl Rove and George Bush (in that order) to define the party's position and rule the roost, leading the Party into further bloodshed.
Could frontrunner Mitt Romney be the one to bring the ratings back to the Republican Network and re-kindle some semblance of honor to the “R-word" again? It's plausible, but early feedback looks rather lackluster.
Well then, could our favorite New York hero, Rudy Giuliani be the chosen one? No offense, but will someone please remind the Rudy camp that while the Republican tent is a big one, it's not so welcoming of those who have married their second cousin? Then again, maybe there's a strange pity vote which will eminate from that oddity - who knows.
I've written before that Mike Huckabee may be the best of the whole lot. He's the real deal when it comes to conservative thinking. But let's face it, it'll take the hand of God, along with a major lottery win, to bring Huck out of “tier two,” and into prominence.
While the Party tries to figure out how to best rescue itself, some are wondering whether it's even worth the try. Another New York Mayor, Mayor Michael Bloomberg, recently went so far as to renounce his membership.
When it comes to the Republican side, you and I could be front-and-center to witness an interesting evolution of sorts; one that only happens every 150 years or so. It may or may not happen, but it seems two - perhaps three - fellas may have a thing or two to say about where the conservative movement might be headed.
I didn't say "Republican," mind you - I said "conservative."
What's With The Wait-and-See?
Could it be that three major conservative players are steering clear of the Republican Party for a reason? Fred Thompson, Newt Gingrich and Michael Bloomberg have all three mentioned "September" to make their decision to run. We'll see who blinks first.
Maybe they’re playing political Texas Hold-em; maybe they’re all vying for position, to see whether an “all-in” is in order. They’re all three salesmen, after all, and they know that being the last one in the buyers’ (voters') minds is the key place to be. What if it's more to it than that?
They’re smart guys. Could their radar be detecting and predicting a slightly more destructive rumbling on the Richter Scale of partisan politics than FOX News, CNN or even the most celebrated pundits? Perhaps not, but it sure makes for interesting coffee table talk among friends who care to talk politics.
What MIGHT they sense coming? They’re surely not afraid of Mitt Romney or Rudy G. are they? Could it be money keeping them at bay? Uh, no. They've all three got access. Heck, one could finance a small nation on his 401K alone.
The "What if" Scenario:
What if Thompson, Gingrich and Bloomberg sense it's plausible that the Republican Party itself is about to - in essence - declare bankruptcy? Not monetary bankruptcy, mind you, but a total lack of credibility - the most valuable currency a politician needs.
A year ago, the Republican Party seemed teetering. Where does that put it today?
Many like Bloomberg are already cashing out. However, they're not turn-coating to the Democratic Party They're taking a wait-and-see approach. Interestingly, Gingrich and Thompson are taking their own wait-and-see approach as well. Could they be considering another option?
Could these three conservative franchise players be considering a new conservative party?
Few would doubt that a changing of the "Republican Guard" would be a good thing. After all, that's what America's all about - continuous improvement and evolution, right?
Franchise players - especially ones who have been around the block a few times - want to go with a winning team. When you're in the world of the titans - Thompson, Gingrich and Bloomberg - let's face it, a new party - not exactly an unthinkable option.
The Power of Three
Three people can do amazing things together, when they put their minds to it. Three courageous rebels in Jefferson, Franklin and Adams formed the triumvirate which ultimately led to the formation of our country. In sports, there's no better example than Jordan, Pippen and Rodman. Unbeatable. Hollywood's Dreamworks Studio's triad? None other than Spielberg, Katzenberg and Geffen.
Thompson, Gingrich and Bloomberg? Hey, it could happen.
Back to the Shark
Jumping the Shark – a term we know well now from when Happy Days overplayed the Fonzie card.
The Republicans could have lost their audience thirty years ago, over Richard Nixon. However, Gerald Ford came to the rescue, and Tip O'Neil gave them a "get out of jail card" by suspending the impeachment proceedings once a pardon was evident.
That said, Americans have not forgotten. That was just a practice run on the shark-jump.
The first Gulf War gave us an example of what true Teddy Roosevelt “Talk softly, big stick” negotiation was supposed to be. Republicans got out of Iraq unscathed. That said, the second Gulf War is another story. By nearly all accounts, it's been a mismanaged war; by most accounts, an unjust war.
Rev up the speedboat and put on the waterskis; the GOP's back on the rope and there's no lifejacket this time. Look ahead, the ramp is in sight. The waves are getting harder to manage:
- Hurricane Katrina
- Gay Marriage
- Illegal Immigration
- Gonzales
- Scooter Libby
- Guantanomo Bay
- Vice Presidency in Turmoil
Perhaps the shark has already been jumped, folks, but for good measure, let's start a pool to see when the impeachment will begin of the Vice President of the United States. Any guesses?
If an impeachment process is forthcoming, it'll be mighty difficult for ANY good leader with the word "Republican" next to his name on the ballot to win. You know this. Fred Thompson knows this. Newt Gingrich knows this. So do the Democrats.
They know if impeachment succeeds, that the proverbial baby, the bathwater and the whole plumbing system will be not just tossed, but pressure-purged right out of D.C. Watergate was a shot over the bow from the People toward the Executive Branch. Tom DeLay's ill-advised vendetta impeachment of President Clinton served as an example of partisanship at its worst, and now provides plenty of ammo for the Democrats to see to it this shot doesn't miss the bow, it smacks the U.S.S. Sharkbait head-on.
Author John Coonen is a Partner in The Coffee Group, established in 1987 as a non-partisan campaign and cause marketing firm in Chicago, Illinois; Greensboro, North Carolina; and Boulder, Colorado.
Photo credit: Freddy Lee/AP; Edward Green; iStockPhoto
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Comments: 14
The last time we got a sea change that destroyed a major party and replaced it with a new one was at the start of the Civil War, when it became obvious that business as usual was not going to preserve our nation as a single entity. Somebody check my facts here, but I think that Lincoln's victory only happened because the Democrats (at that time, the party for slavery) split their vote between a southern slavery wing and a northern union wing.
So in my view, for a third party to come in successfully we would need an existing major party to completely self destruct first. I know that the Republican screwup has been major, but I doubt that it is that major. If they get the right candidate, I think they will be able to re-do their coalition and turn in a creditable performance in 2008. Creditable, i said. I think it is a long shot to think they might elect a president, with the millstones that are tied around their necks.
The theory I'm putting out there suggests there is indeed enough fertile ground and cause to bring evolution to the American political system, and the self-destruction of the Republican Party.
- The utter mismanagement of the Vietnam War and Republicans' cowardly caving-in and departure of American troops, leading to the mass murder of millions of civilians in that country and surrounding region.
- The resignation of a proven criminally corrupt Republican Vice President, Spiro Agnew
- Watergate: A Republican President, Richard Nixon, who committed criminal activities in order to gain unfair advantage over his Democratic adversary, Robert F. Kennedy. Nixon ordered the break-in to the Watergate Hotel to gather campaign secrets.
- The subsequent impeachment of a proven-corrupt Republican President, Richard Nixon.
- Republican Gerald Ford, chosen by Nixon as the replacement Vice President to criminal Republican Spiro Agnew, then PARDONS Richard Nixon for his criminal activity. This proved to many that PARTISANSHIP, not CITIZENSHIP is truly the source of power in the United States. The guilty party: Republicans. The People were never given the chance to see that they, not the President, would be considered the leadership of the Constitutionally-created government. This proved to many that Jefferson's words, "We the People," was for all intents and purposes in the real world, a myth.
Due to this pardon, justice was never served. This pardon set a precedent (which has now been repeated in the Scooter Libby case) and it sent a clear message to others that immoral or criminal activities will not only be accepted as legitimate by Republicans, but it will be publicly and arrogantly "wiped clean" through the stroke of another Republican's pen. The same Constitution which is to be granting the People the power over its government has, ironically granted the Executive the power of pardon, denying the People their power.
(And partisans WONDER why the People don't vote?)
- The utter failure of a Republican-led administration to listen to intelligence, which ultimately helped to allow for the atrocities on 9-11.
- The totally inept Republican-led war strategy in Iraq, fueled in great part by a Republican President who was hell-bent on revenge against Saddam Hussein. One's natural human response overcame proper policy, and in government, this is unacceptable. This is why in police cases, officers are removed from the case if personal interests come into play in decision-making for the greater good of society.
- The utter failure of MANY governmental departments under the leadership of a Republican Executive. FEMA's inexcusable inhumane response to Katrina continues with ineptitude and discourse, corruption and total lack of energy and mission, even today.
- Florida's "hanging chad" election. A Republican wins in that Republican's BROTHER'S state, making an utter MOCKERY of the United States' most important tool which is to give the People power over our leaders: our ELECTION ITSELF. This shows the utter arrogance that PARTISANS show toward its own citizens. We are not subject as in a Monarchy; we are voting citizens in a Democracy. Yet, Republicans are clearly satisfied with the 1950s technology we're employing to ensure fair elections. Hell, they benefit from the lack of 60 year-old approach.
- The so-called "Patriot Act," and its suspension of Constitutional Law and rights of the People to free speech, privacy and protections, including Attorney General Gonzalez's outright disregard for Habeas Corpus.
- Torturing of enemy POWs, and the total disregard for international treaties and the Geneva Accord.
- The demonstrated failure over SEVEN YEARS of the Republican President and the Republican Party to deliver substantive legislation and policy, with common sense solutions on illegal immigration, health care, social security, welfare reform, abortion and respect for life, marriage and civil unions, gambling, business and corporate ethics, energy independence, compensation and medical care for military veterans, space exploration, technology evolution, education and college reform and affordability, agricultural re-deployment toward biofuel creation...I could go ON AND ON. The Republicans have utterly failed in these departments, and meanwhile, continue with a total disconnect from the American People on these issues.
- A TOTAL inability of Republicans to connect with the media and generate positive relations with the People. Rather, they call them "Liberal Media" and shun them? Well, why should the media HAVE a conservative, or middle-of-the-road approach if they are treated NOT as an extension of the Peoples' right to information, but as the enemy? Republicans are NOT OPEN SOURCE. They are colluders and require confidentiality in order to do their deeds in the shadows. Contrary to their country club elitist thinking, this mentality UNDERMINES legitimate CONSERVATIVE efforts to achieve important advances in America.
- The total ineffectiveness of the Republican Corporation to attract young conservative voters with the energy and drive to make positive change. Why? because of Republicans' rather inept track record at attracting and recruiting the BEST LEADERS in America to participate in the political process, and lead.
* * * * *
Chris, if that's not "self-destruction," I don't know what is.
Now, to top it all off, if we complete the historical re-visit from Nixon-Agnew days, and Dick Cheney does in fact face impeachment, will THAT be the catalyst needed by conservatives to finally wake up and realize the Republican Corporation that is supposed to be representing their interests is totally impotent?
Excellent article! I agree strongly with Chris W. and his comments.
I also see it as very unlikely that any third part effort is going to succeed at this time. It is true that Lincoln's election was a unique situation, after all, how many presidents have had a vice president of the opposing party? I see not opportunity for that today.
Don't sell the Republican party short, however. The are and will always be the party of financial resources and these are powerful in getting persons elected and in discrediting people who might challenge them. Think swift boaters!
Again, the Republicans were not at fault in the Viet Nam war. The country didn't want that war to continue and it was doomed before Nixon took office.
Ford's pardon of Nixon was forced on him by events. His first responsibility was to the duties of his office and he could not fulfill these while the Watergate matter consumed so much of his time. That pardon, unlike the Libby commutation, took an act of courage.
The Republican party, like the Democrat party has plenty of sins of which it is plain guilty, but I do not see that sinking the party or allowing a third party candidacy.
Cheney will not be impeached! He is definitely one of the major skunks in the woodpile but in the time left it won't happen unless something new arises and that's unlikely as long as Bush is going to protect anyone who comes under the gun and might talk.
The Republican party has attracted many young voters. I am appalled at how many young folks don't realize just where the party is leading them into one world corporate governance and reduced freedoms, but they don't. And they vote Republican.
John,
Great article and all good points made here. You say: //The theory I'm putting out there suggests there is indeed enough fertile ground and cause to bring evolution to the American political system, and the self-destruction of the Republican Party.//
Hopefully, you are right and we can eventually [sooner rather than later] say bye bye to the republican AND the democrat party as we have come to know them. All of them are craven greedy cowards while pushing war as a way of covering the deficits their greed and power grabs have created. Both parties have lined up at the trough [WAR SERVICES INDUSTRY] which is bankrupting and destroying this country -- OUR country -- not their FEIFDOM -- our country.
CSPAN covered testimony of the MRAP [Mine Resistant Ambush Protected vehicle] Task Force. 8000 vehicles [to replace the humvees one to one -- we have about 19+ thousand HVs] by cal yr end '07. These vehicles will have to be 'modified' as the enemy adapts and would not be suitable if Chertoff's 'gut feeling' turns in to a venture in Pakistan. As Rummy said, "as the enemy adapts; we adapt." As we've seen the 'enemy' [fill in your own definition] has become mighty adaptable and could conceivably turn guns into butter for a long long time, or so they seem to fervently believe.
The MRAP testimony also covered the plausibility of having a supplier like Ford, GM, or Toyota for example getting up and ready for 'a national emergency.' Why not? they certainly don't have a corner on the auto market. They're in the toilet. [Check todays news about the Wayne, Michigan Ford Truck Plant and the fact that the big trucks and SUV's won't be rolling off the line beyond 2009. What's a poor truck company to do?
The candidates, local and national, who are willing to acknowledge that we've become just as addicted to war as to oil WILL WIN. Those who continue to spin their same old party line are going to go down in flames, soon rather than later.
Anyhoo, big oil, combined with defense contractor $$$ can be beat. The key is making sure the American SYSTEM ADAPTS to give the voter - the People - more say, over the Partisans.
Common sense will return to politicians when they are provided the backing, as well as the check-and-balance, of the voter by his or her side.
1) I don't sell either party short. I've given them more than the benefit of the doubt. I'm in the MOST Republican county in Illinois, yet at 43, I'm often the youngest Republican in the room. I'm the one in my county who is trying to literally carry the water for my generation in a county of 320,000. I think I've done my share at sticking up for partisan politics, and tried to change things for the better. I've been able to recruit Republican VOTERS, but once I bring them to the table to LEAD, it's hopeless. They are treated poorly and come to the same conclusion as everyone else - the leadership is THERE for the leadership. They are NOT there to SERVE THE PEOPLE. I think they are utterly failing. That's a fair assessment.
Folks have been sold a bill of goods who believe either party is out for your interest or mine; or for the "greater good." No. They are there to "beat" the other team. Period. That is now their sole purpose; and what they are designed to do.
Right now, the People are like children who have GROWN UP, yet are not trusted to take the car out of the garage. The Parties take the power because they "know better."
It's time to give the keys BACK to the ones the Founding Fathers said they belonged to in the first place.
"Republican Party will never go away." Uh huh. And the World Trade Center is still standing too? Things change. They had BETTER ADAPT and IMPROVE, or they will be reduced to rubble.
That's why I suggested a triumvirate of leaders could pull off the creation NOT of a "third party," but a VERSION 2.0 of the Republican Party - so much so that it would be a NEW Party, leaving the obsolete GOP to pack up shop and move its records to the Smithsonian for us all to "appreciate" as a once-powerful, once-grand organization which stood up for the GRASS ROOTS. That is how it began, by Lincoln and others. They LOST their way in the 1970's. They are REPEATING the OFFENSE in the 2000s.
Time to go.
My commentary is not to compare one party's lunacy to the others; and say one is worse; my commentary is to say that I SEE AN OPPORTUNITY for three very intelligent, entrepreneurial conservatives to revamp a party that's long overdue for a major tune-up - to the point of a RE-BRANDING of the organization itself, shedding stale skin and growing anew.
Evolution is a good thing, and it's been a long time since the Contract With America.
Michael can finance it;
Fred can sell it and lead it.
The "what-if" I put out there is different than an Independent, striking out on his or her own.
It involves a triumvirate of conservative leaders, sick of the BS the Republicans are shoveling. I think the only way Bloomberg gets consideration is with not just ONE big-name supporter watching his backside, but TWO.
I've only two words for you, good luck! The changes we see in both parties is not for the better, and that has a pretty long track record. I don't know what it is going to take to get our young people to vote regularly and take an interest in what goes on politically. They feel that what they might do would not make a difference. Therefore, we have parties that are controlled, as you state, by a few of the older people. What's the answer?