Huck Fanns Settling on Tier Two (For Now)

Will Candidate Mike Huckabee Make the Leap From Infamous Second Tier?

It's plausible. Is it probable? The strongest "Huck Fanns" are hanging in there.  The best chance the good Governor has to make his ascent is - ironically -  after Fred Thompson enters the race. The sooner that happens, the better for Huck.  The longer Thompson holds out, the further the second-tier candidates' campaign funds will go into hock.  

Thompson knows he's the chosen one, which is why he's allowing the lower-tier to exhaust their funds and choke, prior to his official announcement.  Killer strategy, Fred - literally. 

When Thompson enters the race, all those longing for a conservative, charismatic leader will finally be satisfied. That said, they will also read past the fold and dig into the Senator's bio - beyond the Hollywood cover sheet.  Once folks get past the hype, they'll realize that he was an "adequate" Senator, with little or no substantial new legislation to offer.

Consequently, it follows that if elected, he would serve as an adequate President.  Problem:  Americans don't much like adequate. They want a star. They demand excellence and have been denied time and time again of that chance to rally behind a true leader's leader.  This guy's got all the show, but very little "go" on the books.

When voters catch Thompson without the make-up and look at his rather ho-hum voting record, they'll conveniently sidestep comparing the good Senator to the Godfather of the new conservative movement, Ronald Reagan.  Thompson, once thought to be the conservative movement's rising star, proved to fizzle out as a shooting star under the daily grind of politics. He turned to lobbying, and back to the small screen.  Ronald Reagan's deep portfolio of legislative accomplishments as Governor simply crushes Thompson's short bullet-list of legislative accomplishments.

When the McCann-Feingold Campaign Finance bill is the soul piece of substantive legislation offered up by the Senator (a former trial lawyer by the way), I've got to think the authentic leaders, thinkers (and funders) in the room may, upon learning of Thompson's inconvenient truths, quietly duck out of the "Support Fred Soiree" through the kitchen door, and opt for a cab ride home, followed by a rather nervous three-steps-at-a-time dash upstairs with tux still buttoned, up to the laptop. 

There, it's time to revisit the Republican Candidates Online list favorited months ago, pre-Fred.

Maybe, during the Thompsonian fall flurry, it's possible that somehow this influencer missed identifying the candidate with his own portfolio of "genuine article" legislation to match the well-articulated message. 

It will be at that precise moment that it will happen.  A pause; a frantic sigh of deep relief after questioning one's own decision-making when cutting the big check in the den (and whether it'd be appropros to stop payment of said check); and the private ahah-moment where it's OK to say it: "Holy shit. Mike who? How the hell did I miss this guy?" 

Enter Huck, Stage Left.

The influencers will have come to some realizations after getting that face-to-face interview with the Tennessee Senator:

• That the American electorate may not actually want a rock star; however, they may want a Little Rock star.  
• They don't want a  trial-lawyer-turned-Senator-turned-lobbyist-DC Insider-turned-Hollywood; however, they may turn to a quick-witted, action-oriented, legislative consensus-building outsider. 
• Americans don't want a partisan artisan, but how about a straight-talking no-frills conservative who sticks to his principles and makes those principles clear from the outset.
• Americans don't want a leader whose tough talk is starting to sound a lot like a certain South Dakota "second-tier" leader; Americans don't want a repeat of the current power-partisan Executive branch which proved itself unworthy of the self-imposed moniker of "compassionate conservatives."  May that term die a painful death. No, Americans want an approachable, open-source leader who listens and truly understands the complex issues facing this country. They want a leader who doesn't falter when times get tough. They want a leader who IS tough and willing to make progress, not a leader who just talks tough and runs from the bargaining table in an "are you with us or against us" mentality.

Folks, the second-look, after-the-first date reaction to Thompson could be exactly what fuels a second-tier candidate's ascension to the November election. 

Product Placement Isn't an Effective Campaign Strategy 

Senator Thompson's reticence to get into the race might have something to do with the concern that NBC networks won't air episodes featuring actor Thompson in Law and Order - unless the network is willing to feature his competitors under the "equal time" campaign law.

The image of Senator Thompson is a strong one - built to a large extent by the highly rated drama, depicting Thompson as a conservative law enforcement politician who has that John Wayne-esque, "right stuff" look, and the lines to match.  His persona in pre-announcement interviews doesn't depict him in any less positive light. He's articulate, well-mannered, and certainly conservative in his philosophy and beliefs. He seems to have it all.  

That said, he's also managed to display his inability to tackle the highest priorities facing him while Senator. His tough talk was tiger paper thin. Maybe attention deficit seems to have undermined his ability to tackle the deficit while in office.  No grand accomplishments; yet we have a grand orator. 

Americans may be ready to elect a candidate who doesn't fudge the answers and mince the definition of "is."   America may be enthralled with a leader who more than any other candidate has articulated clear solutions for major tax reform (including doing away with the IRS altogether), illegal immigration, energy independence (stating a measurable goal with a deadline? Now that's unique), abortion, and more. Perhaps too much information will divide the electorate; we'll see.

The American electorate may be looking for someone who is in excellent shape to run a marathon; not a leader who swings in after the fall television schedule has dispensed free Fred Thompson product placement.  

Question is, can Huck's miniscule budget carry him till fall?

Somehow, the romantic notion of an authentic leader who can show the world he can succeed on a shoestring budget, while running the mother of all marathons and still show his passion to serve the People has a certain ring to it - especially because it's shaping up to be, well, true.

It's especially fresh against a "Freddy-come-lately" who's funded to the gills, and made it perfectly clear that he's only willing to sprint the last 25 yards in an attempt to win a hard fought campaign that is, in many peoples' minds supposed to help candidates build their strength and endurance for the most powerful seat at the world's table: the Presidency of the United States.  Is the campaign too long? Perhaps.

However, one must admit, a grueling presidential campaign has a major benefit to you and me: it provides a front-row seat to many citizens to not only shake the hand of a potential world leader in a photo op, but to personally put them to task and moreover, capture their personal attention long enough to truly listen to OUR concerns in the heartland, in the bayou, the iron range, on the plains and coast-to-coast.  Once in the Oval Office, the only ones these days with that kind of access carry embossed linen business cards with an understated "Rove and Associates, LLC" logotype pressed into them - as if they need another client.

The honorable Senator Fred Thompson may indeed capture first prize, and perhaps he will deserve it; however, the path less traveled by Mike Huckabee has surely been an honorable one, and this one American Independent gives him a tip of the hat.  Thank you.

Hang in there, Mike. Second tier ain't such a bad place to be - for now. 

Questions:

Will an underdog end up being the victor on the Right Side of the election?

Will Fred Thompson be the pre-ordained winner? 

With billion dollar campaign budgets, can Huckabee generate the funds necessary to make a serious run, or could a grass-roots effort be the answer? 

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Author John Coonen is a Partner in The Coffee Group  a cause marketing firm in Chicago, Illinois; Greensboro, North Carolina; and Boulder, Colorado, established in 1987.