The topic of gasoline has continually bombarded me over the past day. Some of it of course is my own fault: I watched a dvd entitled "The End of Suburbia". But in this morning's newspaper and radio news reports, I am seeing a mix of denial and accpetance of today's new reality that gasoline prices are not going back down, ever.
For many of us of course this reality seems a bit nightmarish, and that explains the denial. One letter in my local newspaper is from a Virginia state government worker who commutes many miles each day to her workplace in Richmond. This is intolerable, she complains, I need a gasoline stipend from my employer so that I can continue with my lifestyle. I don't want to be too harsh, but that one goes into the denial column. There are carpools, there are fuel efficient vehicles to buy. do not ask government to shelter you from economic realities. Did you think cheap gas was a God given blessing guaranteed in the U.S. Constitution?
Another sample of denial was on a radio report about people in Pennsylvannia who are torn between paying mortgages or buying fuel oil. That is going to be a real problem for many people this winter, and the sad reality is that oil is no longer a workable means of heating a home in the winter for those of us who are poor. There was one guy on the radio bit who had been forced into a carpool against his pride. Oh please, what does pride have to do with carpooling? Let's compare needs to wants, and realize that the wants do not matter anymore when it becomes a matter of economic survival.
This morning at my local grocery store I encountered a big display with a young lady handing out flyers for their new "Fuelperks" program. Never pay full price for gas again, trumpets the sign. If you buy $50 worth of stuff at the grocery store, you can then trot over to a gas station that is in collusion with the grocer store and get 10 cents off each gallon of gas. It should be pointed out that this is not exactly a favor to the consumer. No, it is a carefully thought out strategy for the grocery store to compete more effectively against other stores. The underlying reality is that out relationship with shopping is just as dependent on gasoline as our relationship with commuting. Look upon this change as temporary, if you prefer to delude yourself. Maybe a better approach is to start shopping more at your local store and save trips to the Big Store down the Road for rare occasions.
It was funny that I was watching this film last evening, "The End of Suburbia", and a storm passed through and killed our electricity for half an hour. It caused me to reflect that we are actually even more dependent on electricity in our current lifestyle than we are on gasoline. "The End of Suburbia" is sort of a harsh warning that we are doomed, but the reality is more complex. It implies that our current lifestyle can no longer exist after "peak oil" arrives, but that varies alot depending on our position in society. If you are among the super rich, what do you care if it costs a hundred bucks every week to fuel your Hummer, you have the cash. If you are a minimum wage shift worker living twenty miles from your workplace and there are no buses or even anyone else to carpool with, well you are cooked. Start looking for a different job, because you are not going to show a profit this way anymore.
So far in the film (I only managed to watch the first half because of the power failure) there is also no mention at all of renewable energy. Back in 2003 when they made this documentary, nobody really understood that wind turbines and solar panels are for real- that the prices of renewables will inevitably continue to go down while the prices for fossil fuels continue to rise. Nobody knew in 2003 that we would in 2008 be looking forward to 2010, at which time plug in hybrids are supposed to arrive in the showrooms.
In a sort of bottom line mode, this film and the bombardment of news today combine to remind me that change does happen. Our initial reaction is denial, but then we start to negotiate and accept. The problem that really faces us in suburbia is that the housing stock exists and it is where it is. We cannot just say, okee dokee I am boarding up my house and from here on in I live in a tent at the back door of my job. For a few of us, it might make sense to actually trade houses with someone else who lives next to our workplace- but most of us would view that as too extreme. We do not look at homes as just the economic basis of our existence- we also look at friends, family, school systems, shopping, and how we feel about gardening. The impact of gasoline will be substantial- but it may not be revolutionary, especially if the plug in hybrids manage to breathe new life into the commuter lifestyle for those with enough up front $ to afford one. This argument is consistent with the way "the future" has usually operated. "The future" is usually not the opposite of the present. For example, we once expected that by now everybody would commute in the own personal anti-gravity hovercraft, but surprise, that never happened. It is more likely that Americans will find a way to cling to the decentralized concept of suburbia in a somewhat modified form- more jobs moving to suburbia, more public transit, perhaps more people willing to live in urban areas. The idea that it will die in a panicky mass migration is unlikely.
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Comments: 18
Americans have to realize that even though these prices are high for us, we haven't even hit "normal" prices for what consumers pay in other countries and have been paying for a very long time. We actully look pretty stupid to them when we're whining about not being able to afford to fill our SUV's and our wasteful life styles.
I already live close to my job and always have. I'm actually a lot further away from my current job that I have been in the past, I'm 7 miles from my office now. At one point I worked 2 blocks from my home, I walked to and from work and loved it!
You would think so, Chris. Europeans have been living with high gas prices for years and it has changed the way they live. They are much more open to walking and riding their bikes, in all weather.
I know it is unreasonable to ask someone to ride 20 miles to work and back each day, but people need to consider the cost of transportation, support more public transport in their state budgets, trade their big cars in for small, efficient models, move closer to their work if necessary and just start using their vehicles less.
The gasoline crisis is scary for some of us, and I will admit that the finances are somewhat burdensome even to me. But I have not gone out of my way to make our family vulnerable, as some people have done with their trophy homes in the middle of nowhere plus Hummer. I think that there will be adaptations both longterm and short term to lessen the impact, and those with the hardest chores ahead are those who got deepest into denial.
Our best weapons in dealing with peak oil and climate change have always been our brains. Now that the denial phase is dissipating, what a relief that we can get down to the business of using those brains.
Then there is the question of generating the electricity itself. Wind energy in many cases is down to the same price as coal, the cheapest fossil fuel source. Solar is so far around twice as expensive as coal- but the price of solar is headed down, and the price of coal is headed up.
Excellent article with many salient facts! Over time other energies must be incorporated if we are to survive. I believe that solar, nuclear and perhaps hydrogen will be some of the major players in the not so distant future.
Solar and hydrogen are both in the infancy of their development and have miles to go but will develop fairly fast. Solar can be used right now but it is limited and costly. Hydrogen is just beginning to be developed into a viable resource.
It is certain that oil will continue to be a mainstay of our energy repertoire in the immediate future as even the hybrids require some gasoline and the old cars will not leave the market for many years. Too many people must purchase used for financial reasons so the newest technologies are not available to them.
Once all transportation has moved away from gasoline, we will still need oil to make the many things that are composed of oil and to provide lubricants. Yes, there are synthetic lubricants but they are sky high! Tires and a common use of oil as are many of the plastics used in medical equipment, etc. So the oil companies will continue to import or pump oil far into the foreseeable future.
However, it is imperative that we find alternatives for common transportation as soon as possible. And to implement conservation to stretch our supplies. I can't afford a new car to cut my fuel expenses but my motorcycle gets 50mpg!
As Sam points out, the electric car may well be the car of the future. All that is lacking is a battery that will take the car 300+ miles and recharge from any 110 electric outlet overnight. Even the shorter range vehicles will gain in popularity by those who can afford to keep and insure two vehicles, so that they can do their commuting or short trips in an electric and use the gasoline for their long trips. The key to more of them selling for that mode lies in their getting the price down under $10,000, which I'm sure they can do.
In many other countries, there is public transportation to take one to work, shopping, etc. Homes are in tightly congested areas to remain close to work and services. To set the US up in the same manner, if possible, will take generations. We cannot take what the Europeans pay for gasoline as meaningful to anything here in this country! We need to look at the United States and what will work here!