Climate change, or global warming, is a popular topic of scientific debate on Gather. Proponents on either side studiously present their factual evidence supporting their views and....
...sorry, I can't write that with a straight face. The truth is there is no real scientific debate on the issue of climate change here on Gather. On the other hand, there is a lot of noise about the issue.
The fact is that after over three decades of research on the issue, thousands of peer-reviewed studies, and many compilations of the state of our knowledge on the topic, a clear scientific consensus has been reached that climate change is occurring and that human activities are playing a significant role in that occurrence. The debate now is on what policies best allow us to deal with the realities of the science.
But that doesn't stop the denialists from continuing to post their obfuscatory message, largely determined by ideology and then rabidly seeking any information they deem to support the conclusion needed to ratify that ideology. While there are probably many typologies of denialists, there are three distinct forms present here on Gather that seem the most vocal.
The cut-and-paster: This particular form of denialist largely relies on opinions copied verbatim out of blogs. They tend to suggest these blogs are "science" despite the fact that blogs are not peer-reviewed. To date, no one has even attempted to offer a convincing argument for why we should simply accept anything written on a blog as science. For why peer-review is irrelevant. For why having to withstand the scrutiny of the entire scientific community isn't important. For why a blogline known for supporting and being supported by purely ideological funders is science, but decades of scientific study and thousands of peer-reviewed publications is "ideological." These cut-and-pasters are relatively innocuous because they clearly don't understand science, but do tend to get annoying when they use every opportunity to insert their pastings into even totally unrelated threads.
The focused irrelevant: The second form of denialist here on Gather is the kind that latches on to the "Al Gore invented global warming" canard or the "I saw some photographs and now I'm a climate expert" fantasy. Notwithstanding the fact that someone who normally posts non-science (e.g., humor) is an unlikely source for discovering something "that scientists who study climate change somehow missed," the naiveté of the presentation should speak for itself. First, the suggestion that scientists who use the data don't understand the quality of the data is simply silly, as the scientific process verily forces the discussion of every aspect of the related science. All uncertainties are then incorporated into the analysis. And second, focusing on one part of the data input and suggesting that it invalidates the remainder of the data used in the analysis demonstrates a significant lack of understanding of how science works in general and how climate science works specifically. It's like showing photos of a close up of a 2-inch square of plastic that makes up the bumper of a car (without showing the car itself), and saying that a smudge on that 2-inch square allows you to say that the car does not exist. The folks in this type of denialist simply show their lack of understanding by their incessant carping on the one red ball and ignoring all the blue balls as if they aren't there.
The poser: By far the least prevalent, but the most insidious, is the poser. Posers know full well that most people don't understand the science, and so go out of their way to "sound scientific." We are expected to simply ignore the fact that they suddenly have become "climate experts" after only writing fiction in the past (okay, technically they still are writing fiction). We should be taken in by the use of "official looking" but irrelevant (and laughably simple) calculations because, well, because they look official. They look scientific. We should assume that because there are some mathematical formulas in the post that anything and everything said must therefore somehow be accurate. The goal is to look technical, and thus by appearing to "talk over the heads" of most Gatherites, presume an air of authority. [What these posers are actually looking for is the smugness they can assume when someone effectively says "Ooh, he used math formulas I don't understand, so he must be smart, so he must be right."] The poser knows that he is posing, but does it anyway, caring little that he misrepresents the science, or that the "technical stuff" presented is largely wrong or irrelevant anyway. For the poser, the same 2-inch square of plastic is used to state definitively what kind of car it is, what year it was produced, how many miles it has traveled, how tall the driver is, and whether the driver had eggs or waffles for breakfast that morning. The problem is, because the calculations are wrong, the 2-inch square of plastic is not even from the bumper of a car, but from some random pile of plastic that is only barely related to the manufacture of a car. So the whole exercise is meaningless anyway.
Luckily for Gather, these folks mostly just talk to themselves. There is a tendency for them to gather together to mutually stroke each others egos and pat each other on the back for the supposed wittiness of their deceptions.
The point of this article, of course, is to say that science is not actually "debated" on Gather. Scientific debate must, and does, go on constantly in the peer-reviewed literature and at scientific conferences, among real scientists. While there are a good number of actual scientists on Gather, mostly they understand that scientific debate goes on elsewhere. In the past, many of the Gather scientists have confronted the few lonely climate change denialist holdovers, pointing out the inconsistencies in their arguments, the lack of veracity of their sources, and the shear silliness of some of the calculations (I mean really, if you can post a calculation in a Gather article then it clearly is not sufficient to describe the complexities of atmospheric, oceanic, continental, chemical, solar, and man-made influences to climate change). Unfortunately, denialists tend not to learn, and in fact conveniently forget, all of the information presented by real scientists, and thus simply repeat over and over the same points as if no discussion has taken place. Often, when faced with refutation of their posits, they turn abusive (or merely whine). And while scientists are used to arguing over details - after all, that's what we do - we do not suffer gladly those who show a lack of intellectual integrity. After a while scientists simply stop trying to explain to those who actively choose not to learn.
So for the most part scientists ignore the cut-and-pasters, focused irrelevants, and posers on Gather (with occasional forays just to get humor from their silliness) and rely on real peer-review with fellow real scientists doing real science in real scientific venues. Of course, we will still post articles related to science for informational purposes, but the actual scientific debate is done elsewhere.
[Perhaps some day the real scientists on Gather will compile a list of all of our peer-reviewed publications and compare it with the denialists. Might be good for a laugh - I'm sure the humor folks will appreciate that.]


Comments: 345
I got called "Stupid". Haven't heard that since grade school. It was funny, but not enlightening.
So, since I'm only a lowly BA biology and not qualified to add to the discussion (beyond knowing a poser when I see one) I'm going back to writing humor.
But you really called it here. I don't regret the experience - I learned a lot - but it sure is a waste of time trying to educate the willfully ignorant.
I admire what you do - I wish I were a more scholarly writer. The truth is I *don't* have your capacity for beautifully researched, balanced and thoughtful articles - and I never will.
As you have noticed, I tend to write fairly lengthy articles and comments. Their scholarship value varies, but I do at least think them through. I'm, perhaps unfortunately, a stickler for logical argument, so I try to keep that in mind for my own writing and expect it in others. Gather is an interesting laboratory for demonstrating that this thinking is not always the case.
Science does not lend itself to answers written on stone tablets. Every answer leads to several more questions. Only when all the facts are allowed free and open debate can we hope to come up with reasonable approximations to the answer. But when science is controlled by special interests (on both sides) we do not get science; we get dogma.
Spartan - This presents an interesting thought. With the internet these days it is virtually impossible to be completely uninformed about any topic. The problem, as you note, is that much of the information on the web is garbage (hence, see "peer-reviewed" in the article above). So we could give some leeway for saying that people are misinformed rather than uninformed.
But again this removes the responsibility of the opiner. Frankly, if someone is going to offer an opinion on something they have an obligation to at least try to become informed enough on which to base that opinion. Many choose not to actively become informed, but to actually actively seek misinformation. It is those who actively seek ignorance, and then to disseminate it, that we should not give leeway to.
For instance?
This is very true. Which is why scientists debate the facts. Denialists don't debate facts.
Again, for instance?
I'm curious, Vincent. Could you describe your thoughts on why the Permian-Triassic extinction event, which occurred over a one to several million year period, relates to the current trends being shown within the time frame of a century?
I mean, while a few million years is probably quick in geologic time, I'm not sure how we can suggest that what we are seeing in a 100 year window is comparable. But I would be interested in hearing your thesis. Thanks.
Some day,
But you won't will you David, nor will David E or Stephanie nor any of the other self professed "scientists" or the Climate Changists here on Gather.
But unlike the scientists here on Gather Dr. Roy Spencer is not afraid to put forth the research that supports his position.
How many peer-reviewed papers do you have, Dan?
Global warming deniers are posting personal opinion based mainly on political and corporate propaganda that tries to convince the public global warming is a hoax so they can rake in more profits at the public's expense and welfare.
I'll bet he is.
Jack,
"Global warming is based on scientific fact over a certain number of years and record keeping as well as the condition of the present day earth and atmosphere and prevailing conditions."
Well congratulations for posting the obvious Jack....But what IS questionable is the claim by the IPCC,yourself and the climate changists of society is that man made C02 is to blame.
The current condition of our planet casts doubt on that IPCC theory and shows the models that the IPCC relies on to be unreliable.
Logically speaking, it certainly would seem possible that putting enormous amounts of pollutants in the air would have an effect. And it seems it does.
I'll bet he is.
Wonderful!! That means any legitimate peer-reviewed scientific work he has done is already being considered in the analysis. So why do you keep bringing him up as if this is some sort of revelation?
Based on what?
Been posted dozens of times David....cause and effect and all that stuff you know.
More C02 is supposed to make the planet warm even more according the the IPCC models....but it ain't happening.....the planet has even cooled a bit in the last couple of years.
Gary, in my opinion, fits beautifully into your category #3, the poser. If I did not know better, I might actually think that he knows something about climatology. I have asked him what he does for a living, and I do not expect to ever get an answer to that one. He piles massive mountains of pseudo facts together, with lots of cute mathematical symbols and formulas. OOOH, he must know something that we don't know. It's so pretentious. He is dealing with a lay audience who are obviously not climatologists, he is not a climatologist either, and yet he presents mock-science papers in order to baffle us into accepting the incorrect notion that he is no bullshitter.
It nauseates me, intellectually speaking.
I don't bring him up as "some sort of revelation".
I bring him up as a U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite.
A reciepient of NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal.
In other words beyond your dismiss and demean tactics.
But as we see in your post you transition into your 'it has all been taken into account' mode, which of course if it had indeed all been taken into account the IPCC's predictions would not be so in error.
Sorry David,
There is a difference between the rationalizing that you try to do and logical thinking.
I bring him up as a U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite.
A reciepient of NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal."
Which means he has already had his say, right? He has already contributed his science, right? He has already contributed the data for the consensus, right?
So why do you keep suggesting he is being ignored?
Go ahead, explain how he is being ignored? Explain why this one person is more important than all the other people. Explain why his handful of papers are important, but the thousands of other papers are not important.
Go ahead. Give it a shot.
While you're at it, go ahead and explain to us "what I am trying to do." Since you mentioned logical thinking, you might want to try your hand at explaining the logic behind saying that one scientist who has already contributed his little bit of data to the vast amounts of data compiled, reviewed, and discussed for the last 30 years, is somehow the linchpin in this entire climate change discussion.
Go ahead, we'll wait.
Been posted dozens of times David....cause and effect and all that stuff you know."
You've pasted the same blog dozens of times, Dan. Now explain what it means.
I concur with your assessment.
Actually David it means he IS having his say, he is bring to light research that contradicts the IPCC's.
He is having his say that the IPCC's contention that C02 is the culprit in global warming is not correct.
"Now explain what it means. "
You don't know what cause and effect means David? I'm sure you do! And I'm more than willing to read your explanation David.
You are putting this man forth as an expert who trumps the thousands of studies and other experts on the subject. Thus, it is up to you to explain why we should ignore the totality of the data because one guy says so.
Go ahead.
* Potential Biases in Feedback Diagnosis from Observational Data: A Simple Model Demonstration November 1, 2008 - by Roy W. Spencer & William D. Braswell
* Satellite and Model Evidence Against Substantial Manmade Climate Change (this article supercedes “Has the Climate Sensitivity Holy Grail Been Found?”) December 27, 2008 - by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
* Global Warming as a Natural Response to Cloud Changes Associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
October 20, 2008 (updated December 29, 2008) - by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
* Cloud and Radiation Budget Changes Associated with Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations August 9, 2007 - by Roy W. Spencer, William D. Braswell, John R. Christy, and Justin Hnilo
Why is this man the only person (other than your bloggers) that we should rely on for information? Why is one study (or perhaps four) more important than the thousands of other studies?
The explanations you refer to are not necessary as long as you continue your practice of not providing anything that remotely resembles the same as you request.
"You can start by explaining how these studies refute the current consensus."
Well David first of all, there is no "consensus" at least not that you can prove outside your own biased mind.
And second,
I am most willing to hear your explanation why the research you have referenced is in error.
"Why is this man the only person"
He is not the only person, there are many well credientialed climate scientists who's research cast doubt on the IPCC doctrine to which you so desperately cling.
They put together the UAH dataset which is universally accepted as the most accurate source of climate data.
Christy was the author of the vital part of IPCC Assesment #1, and because he was highly critical of the IPCC's over dependence on carbon forcing.......he was not asked back.
Try reading again. You presented a alternative. Thus, you must say why your alternative trumps all the other data.
"Well David first of all, there is no "consensus" at least not that you can prove outside your own biased mind."
Well, Dan, first of all, there is a consensus. The fact that you still haven't learned this is testament to your lack of listening.
"And second,
I am most willing to hear your explanation why the research you have referenced is in error."
And second, Dan, I never say it was in error, did I? All I asked is that if you feel that one man's four papers is more important than the thousands of papers and the scientific consensus, then you have to explain why. This is part of the process, Dan. If you have something that refutes all the other data, you have to present it and explain why.
By the way, Spencer's work has been discussed at scientific meetings, right? Seems he wasn't persuasive since the consensus seems to be that the previous estimates UNDERpredicted the rate and severity of the impacts.
"He is not the only person, there are many well credientialed climate scientists who's research cast doubt on the IPCC doctrine to which you so desperately cling."
Wonderful. Assuming you're not talking about your bloggers or shills (or the superconductor guy who had to Google climate change), go ahead and explain for us what papers they have published and how those papers invalidate the thousands of other papers and the consensus.
Your post could be the basis for a Master's Thesis. Of course it would require some comparisons with other cases of denial of science but I am sure the same principles would apply to those other cases as well. If you should ever want to get into social "science" I think you have the mind for it.
The proponents of global climate change have lost the scientific as well as the political battle.
That is why it is now only the skeptics who are willing discuss science.
The proponents of anthropomorphic climate change have crossed over into the domain of personal attacks and name-calling......as exemplified by this piece.
Over the past decade, the Global Historic Climate Network (GHCN) and United States Historic Climate Networks (USHCN) were documented to be emperors without clothes and the climate models have failed to match observable realities.
On the political side, the majority of Americans no longer accept the notion that man is the primary factor in climate change, and with each year, the number of people who subscribe to the fundamentalism of Climate Alarmism is dropping. Even Europe is turning against the over-reach of Environmental Activists..
NASA Climate Report on Global Warming-Latest Version
Graphics Presentations & Speeches
As noted, lack of learning. Apparently lack of awareness as well.
"That is why it is now only the skeptics who are willing discuss science"
That would be Boyle's Law, right?
"The proponents of anthropomorphic climate change have crossed over into the domain of personal attacks and name-calling......as exemplified by this piece."
Whining is also a trait. I admit that I can get quite demanding asking people to actually explain why their photos or their link to one scientist completely invalidates all the other scientists and all the thousands of studies on the subject. Is that really name-calling though? I mean, it's not like I'm calling anyone stupid or an idiot, which is the language that denialists so commonly employ. Whining might count. Except denialists do whine a lot, so that's really more of an observation than an attack.
"On the political side, the majority of Americans no longer accept the notion that man is the primary factor in climate change,"
Do you read the newspaper? Maybe you don't get one anymore, with all the big newspapers folding and everything. Perhaps you should try the internet...I hear they have links to the major news organizations now.
“The truth is there is no real scientific debate on the issue of climate change here on Gather. On the other hand, there is a lot of noise about the issue.” I have gained little scientific facts from discussions on Gather, but I have gain from the variety of perspectives offered. I have gain by forcing myself to work through those ideas and frame my own to share. One thing I like about Gather is that you don’t have to show any credentials to participate.
Just as in this discussion I have gained no facts, but I have gained a new definition of “scientists.” “Actually, if Dr. Spencer wants to be considered a real scientist, then he should be publishing his papers in peer-reviewed journals and attending scientific conferences.” I have always thought that people with an in-depth understanding of science and done extensive work in the sciences could have a legitimate claim to being a “scientist”. Now I must change that to exclude all of those people and consider only whether they have published. I am struggling with this because it seems to exclude so many people diligently working in private industry that are more focused on their science then publishing, and even people doing research in organization that are only part of a team and not the authors of publications.
This also causes me to wonder if the new expectation is scientific discussions should only to be restricted to “real scientists” and that anyone else that offers a thought is simply “noise” and should not be listened to.
“This is very true. Which is why scientists debate the facts.” I had heard that “scientists” actually debate the principles about how the facts are created. I had thought Einstein wasn’t debating the facts he was simply offering a new explanation of what caused those facts.
Yes, we are all waiting for documentation of that.
If Dr. Spencer were a real scientist he would be publishing his papers in peer-reviewed journals. And he is, and he has. But only two of the four cited publications are actually peer-reviewed (and one is a "letter" as opposed to the fully detailed study). The other two are on his blog. But they are well documented so we'll give him credit for all four.
The reason for peer-review is so that other scientists can "check your work." Anyone can say anything on a blog or a social networking site, as some of the ludicrous posts on Gather surely demonstrate. Any scientist must present his work for others to review.
"This also causes me to wonder if the new expectation is scientific discussions should only to be restricted to “real scientists” and that anyone else that offers a thought is simply “noise” and should not be listened to."
This is not new. Let me ask you Duane. If you had a brain tumor would you ask for professional advice on Gather? Of course not. It would be highly unlikely that any brain surgeons would be offering advice on Gather (at least advice that you would want to be making life and death decisions on). You would go to the experts for that, not take the word of a bunch of fiction writers on Gather.
The problem with Dan's bringing up Dr. Spencer, is that he presents him as if he completely invalidates all the other researchers and all the other studies. That's ridiculous. Dr. Spencer is one voice out of thousands. His views are known, his papers have been read, his work has been and will continue to be incorporated.
Science is the sum total of all of the work, not just one guy and a few papers just because you think it agrees with your previously defined ideological view of the world.
I agree,
The problem, In the climate change debate, in the political debates, in social/religious debates.
There is no understanding of the difference between fact and opinion.
For the record, I understand a fact to be something that can be verified and replicated, by others (part of the peer review aspect of science)
There is evidence/reason/purpose.
And yes, there is always another question.
As for my thinking on climate change.
I am not a scientist, I do pay attention.
So.
I do believe the planet is warming.
I do believe it is at least in part caused by human activity.
It is sad to note that David will not convert even one Fox Network, Limbaugh/Hannity/LeVin/Beck/Ingram/Cunningham/etc. listener.
These listeners will, contrary to all and any evidence, believe what they agree with when spoken by someone they agree with/admire.
A scientist or anyone who has the slightest interest in knowledge would have instantly Google the question. Here is what they would find Rasmussen Poll: 44% Say Global Warming Due To Planetary Trends, Not People
By the way, here's a hint. Google isn't science either. (and your link doesn't work)
Why?
The reason is simple, David is an activist, a propagandist, what he wants is to argue the politics and popularity of climate change, not the science. Is it any wonder that the scientific debate swirls around him unnoticed?
Not at all.
Here is the link to the Rasmussen Poll
See: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/issues2/articles/44_say_global_warming_due_to_planetary_trends_not_people
Really, where? You don't mean the three posers do you? Let's see, a humor writer, a fiction writer, and a blog reader are suddenly experts in climate change.
Did you read the article?
You aren't debating climate change. You're debating yourselves while the world passes you by.
Sorry. Didn't you know?
I'm sorry, did you actually just suggest that a Rasmussen opinion poll is "scientific publications?"
No, really. You think a Rasmussen poll is a "scientific publication?"
All you guys do is yap, while everyone else cites sources, studies and facts, and you are doing it now.
Here is another fact Gallup Poll: Increased Number Think Global Warming Is “Exaggerated”
Sources to what?
Polls are opinions. Which are pretty much meaningless. The Rasmussen poll for example showed McCain ahead of Obama the day before the election. Wasn't too accurate.
A recent poll had 5% of the US believing that Elvis is still alive. That's 15 million people absolutely clueless according to the poll.
Meanwhile, scientists continue to study. Politicians continue to seek policy solutions. Denialists continue to talk to themselves on Gather while the world passes them by.
Aren't you one of the people who rattles on and on and on and on about "scientific consensus". So how do we know there is a "consensus"?
You think maybe someone had to take "a poll" to establish that "fact"?
(Here is where David spins around and argues the other side of the "poll as science" question)
Their methodology is published, repeatable, transparent and traceable.
Oh, that is right, you are into "Climate Science" where such things as repeatability, transparency and traceability are a foreign concept.
Of OPINION. NOT SCIENCE.
Did you miss the part where I said science is not debated on Gather? Science is debated by scientists. Opinions are as malleable as soft butter.
You really didn't just say that, did you? Because if you did, it would mean you have no clue how scientific consensus is reached.
I have written on science on Gather. I have written on the deterioration of the USHCN network and in the process I directed you to several peer-reviewed articles that are accepted within the climatology community The articles were written by Roger Pielke Sr, et all about the upward bias of Land-use and land-cover (LULC) on the global climate network.
Instead of actually reading the articles, you spun like a top and immediately fell back on personal attacks. In fact, you chased away a number of very knowledgeable people by launching personal attacks.
I would expect no less of an activist. I certainly would not expect an interest in science.
I am not an environmental activist, so I do not confuse OPINION with SCIENCE that is why I am not impressed with "scientific consensus".
For instance, I actually read the pertinent sections of the IPCC AR4 Report. I understand global warming theory. I also read the fine print where the IPCC states the uncertainties in the climate models.
I understand that the IPCC bases most of their projections on the greenhouse effect of humidity in the upper-troposphere.
I can read the small print.
I then read from UAH's Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr. John Christy, the world's foremost authorities on humidity in the upper troposphere that the IPCC's conclusions are exaggerated, that they have overstated their case.
Now, why am I to take the opinion of "a consensus of thousands of scientists" none of whom are authorities on humidity in the upper-troposphere against a scientific assessment from the guys who wrote the IPCC's chapter on humidity in the upper-troposphere?
In other words, it all depends on what one is talking about opinions or science, and scientific consensus is opinion, not science.
CLIMATE ALARMISTS!! TALK ABOUT ANYTHING BUT SCIENCE!! 'CAUSE THE SCIENCE IS GOING SOUR!!!!
According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the Arctic Sea Ice Extent is crashing into the "1979-2000 average" line. That means the sea ice extent is fully recovered and headed into "above average" territory.
The sea ice extent has been in the normal range for weeks.
See link http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_timeseries.png
On the other side of the globe, the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent is running way above normal and has been that way for most of the year. It is now poised to break another all time "most ice record".
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images//daily_images/S_timeseries.png
See David.... see how easy it is to talk about "science" and even provide links!!
When last we met we were commenting on a guy who was using high school chemistry and some Wiki cut and paste to snow those who know nothing. I posted a long list of sites. What I got from you was "How can they model something they don't understand" which leads me to believe that you don't understand modeling. No one bothers to model something they *do* fully understand. The whole point of a model is to provide predictions which can then be tested. Once tested, the model either stands, falls or is modified.
So you ignore citations, and you have a fundamental misunderstanding of the tools, yet you keep showing up, repeating your non-contributions. Whose time are you wasting? Yours? Mine? Everyone's? All of the above?
Sorry, but the poser post I last found you on was such a ludicrous example of denial scienciness that just agreeing with the guy puts you in the 'not serious' category for me.
David K. their is nothing laymen like us can do to support global warming fact except to show deniers scientific evidence found by scientific research.
Failing to recognise scientific fact takes us backwards something like Bush did with his torture. I believe he regressed back to the church and witch hunts as a way to put down knowledge and independent thinking. Lucky we didn't make it all the way back to the cave lol.
Actually I don't have to David. All I really need to do is to continue posting scientists like Dr. Roy who's research disputes the IPCC's contentions, I'll just let them argue my points for me.
Sarah,
Dr. Roy's research shows where the IPCC's models are inacurate and that the forcings given to C02 are in error.
I trust you would not see him as a poser.
That was a scientific "debate". I am very good friends with both of my "opponents" and we all respect each other. For some strange reason, this debate never made the press, not is it ever discusses on Gather. There are thousands of such debates going on in hundreds of scientific disciplines all the time. None of them are ever discussed here.
The global warming issue is not a "scientific debate" at all. It never has been. Real scientific debates die out, when one side admits error (like me, in the example above) which usually doenst take very long. I dont see that happening here. So it is no longer in the realm of science, but of faith.
Hello everyone. Good to see you all.
The purpose of modeling is to determine how known variables interact over time. If one does not know the proper values for the variables, how can one model the interactions?
Q: What climate variables does science not know?
A: All the important ones.
For instance, we do not understand the behavior of humidity in the upper-troposphere enough to create valid models, unfortunately, for climate modelers, humidity in the upper-troposphere is THE most important variable in any forcing model.
We do not understand the mechanisms behind El Nino's nor La Nina's nor a long list of multi-decadal climate oscillations.
Sure, you can model what you do not understand, based on variables that you do not understand, but don't try to convince anyone that it is more than speculative curiosity.
However, I love science and I have been blown away by the questions raised by Anthony Watts and Roger Pielke about the Historic Climate Networks. I have been blown away by their documentation of the deterioration of the network.
I have been so excited by the science of Land-Use/Land-Cover issues of historic climate sites that I have been documenting the micro-climate of two site - doing full temperature gradient maps.
What I have found is stunning, the difference of readings between the MMTS site and a similar, better site, (away from asphalt and buildings) is on the order of 5F to 20F depending on wind and surface conditions.
Now that is science.
"people seem to ignore or just do not get the facts about the burning carbon based fuels especially coal and besides the carbon output it is putting mercury, lead and other cancer causing chemicals into the atmosphere for us all to contaminated with."
The problem with that argument is that it just isn't true.
And this is what the global warmists try to do when they face people who don't fall into line with the chicken little global warmists, you all try and portray anyone who disagrees with you as stoopid or uncaring.
You let me know when you actually find one of us who is against alternative energy, a cleaner environment and a responsible movement away from fossil fuels towards alternative energy.
As I said before, modeling is done through successive approximations. You notice that balloons contract in cold, but because you know nothing about the structure of a gas, you don't know why. If you're smart and lucky, you come up with a workable model. You make a model of a bunch of balls zooming around, punching, as it were, the outside of the balloon. OK, well what would the balls do if they had less energy? You ask the model what *it* would do. The model's balls travel more slowly, punch not so hard. The model 'balloon' sags. So you have a model of gas molecules as free particles traveling at various speeds. The speed determines the pressure they exert. You didn't know that.
Now you can ask your model what would happen if the balls had more energy? Still predicts behavior. If they were heavier, lighter, and so on.
That's how modeling works, and it requires both knowledge and creativity to come up with that first good approximation. Otherwise your model doesn't describe what you know, won't predict outcome of experiments you can try. What makes it different from 'speculative curiosity' is the model's ability to predict behavior. And of course, in this case, the model's themselves are hugely complex because the behavior they model is hugely complex. It's really no different from making a model of your dream house and seeing if your furniture will fit - what you learn depends on how accurate your model is. If you get a model house that seems right, but you build it and your furniture doesn't fit - you know your model sucks.
Science has to both explain and predict. I've read enough about the global warming models to know they do both. They're very complex, though.
You may find modeling counter-intuitive, but it *works* and when it works well for a given problem, scientists will agree that it works. (Or at least enough of them to provide a consensus - cause I know you'll find one who doesn't...) All kinds of problems have been solved by modeling. Complaining that there is something inherently wrong with the tool is silly - people use this tool all the time...
Which is why your poser is such a crock. He trotted out some 9th grade chemistry and 7th grade math and thought we would all fall on our knees. I have 9 terms of college chemistry, a year each of physics and calculus - you know what that education tells me? It tells me I don't have anywhere close to the chem/phys/math background to contribute to the global warming science. Not even close.
But I can tell when someone else is blowing smoke - that much education I do have.
You are taking the concept of a model too abstractly. You are confusing “learning something” with predicting outcomes with sufficient precision to affect public policy.
Let's find a more fitting analogy for climate models. Let's say you work for GE and are modeling a new jet engine design. You should know all the variables. You should know the tensile strength of your fan blades, the surface area, the fuel, the apertures, everything. You should know all the known behaviors.
Then you try out the model under different stresses.
Okay.
But what if you don't know the tensile strength of the fan blades, or even how many fan blades you have, or even if majority of chemicals in the fuel will burn?
That is more like climate modeling.
Sure, you may go ahead and run the model all you want and in the process you can learn a great deal, but don't come out and tell people that your engine is safe or not safe, or try to convince anyone of the ability of the engine to perform.
Climate models simply do not have the precision to support the policies that the IPCC and Obama administration are recommending.
Maybe when we know what causes an El Nino, we will be more accurate with our models.
Maybe when we actually know how to include clouds in our climate models will we approach the precision to make meaningful predictions.
Maybe when we have resolution under 1,000 K grids, we will achieve a baseline of accuracy.
Maybe when we understand whether humidity in the upper-troposphere is a positive or negative feedback will we have climate models with a glimmer of reliability.
But please do not try to convince us that climate modelers can accurately gauge climate sensitivity to carbon-dioxide to a sufficient precision to increase the heating bill of little old ladies living on fixed incomes.
Well Jack,
I can't disagree with you at all on that one...it's just that you would have to include yourself in that list....First on the list.
Stack two pennies one on the other. The height of two cents is 3mm. That is also an accurate measure of how much sea level rises per years, when it rises.
We just had Steve Chu, the Secretary of Energy and a Nobel prize winning physicist proclaim in a conference in Trinidad.There is no basis in the IPCC predictions, or in any peer-reviewed journal for anything so lurid.
If Steve Chu can act like an idiot, I will give Gary a pass.
I do not see you or any of the global warming proponents attacking stupid and outlandish statements made by your ilk.
What is good for the goose, is good for the gander. :)
None of your 'examples' comes within light years of the sort of stupidity Gary exhibited. (Your penny stacking notwithstanding - and don't try to tell me you know the change in rate oceans will rise, nor does Chu give a time frame, which is of course, the crux of the question ) Gary doesn't get a pass because he knows full well he's blowing smoke. You blow better smoke, but you're still blowing it.
And those of my "ilk' (scientists? responsible posters? educated people? uh... just who is my ilk anyway?) who make erroneous statements don't do so knowing they're erroneous, nor do they do it to get attention, a following of woolly-minded people, Gather points or whatever it is Gary gets from this. Honest error is one thing. Preying on the lazy and muddled is another. Not that they don't ask for it.
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Many years ago I published a paper showing that a particular genetic variant led to an increased risk of lung cancer. A bit later, another group published a paper showing no effect of that variant. Then a third group also published a negative result. We continued our studies, and found that our first set of data were not supported by our second set of data. Then we found even more evidence to show that our original finding could not have been right.
That was a scientific "debate". I am very good friends with both of my "opponents" and we all respect each other. For some strange reason, this debate never made the press, not is it ever discusses on Gather. There are thousands of such debates going on in hundreds of scientific disciplines all the time. None of them are ever discussed here.
The global warming issue is not a "scientific debate" at all. It never has been. Real scientific debates die out, when one side admits error (like me, in the example above) which usually doenst take very long. I dont see that happening here. So it is no longer in the realm of science, but of faith.
Hello everyone. Good to see you all.
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Good to see you too, Sy.
He is absolutely correct and the IPCC and climate science concurs. I fail to see why you got so cranked up.
I wasn't following his equation but the gist of what he is saying is right out the climate models that you seem to put so much faith in. According to climate change theory, carbon-dioxide forcing is a catalytic event that sets off water-vapor (humidity) forcing.
Gary was spot on accurate.I am just a humble Gatheritte, who by myself cannot predict future sea rise, for that I refer to the IPCC AR4 which sets as its most pessimistic prediction a rise of 59cm (less than two feet) over a hundred years.
They maintain there is less than a 2% chance of this happening and give a 50% chance of continuing with the present 3mm per year figure.
Saying that Chu did not specify a time range begs the question why he said anything at all. But c'mon, spin all you want, what Chu said was stupid. So are brain-dead comments about polar bears and other lurid fantasies.
I fail to see why skeptics should be held to a higher standard than "scientists" like Jim Hansen who scream that "we only have 93 months left" as they offer less substantiation than Gary.
Of course you as a scientists could explain why, despite the continued C02 output by we humans for the last 10 years that the planet's temperature has moderated and even cooled?
"I have been so excited by the science of Land-Use/Land-Cover issues of historic climate sites that I have been documenting the micro-climate of two site - doing full temperature gradient maps. What I have found is stunning, the difference of readings between the MMTS site and a similar, better site, (away from asphalt and buildings) is on the order of 5F to 20F depending on wind and surface conditions." "Now that is science."
Oh brother. Let me get this straight, you noticed that temperatures vary at temperature monitoring stations? I bet the temperature even varies as much as 50degreesF between night and day, depending on season, latitude, amount of sun, clouds, and a million other things.
You think that climate scientists didn't notice that?
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Sorry, Greg
None of your 'examples' comes within light years of the sort of stupidity Gary exhibited. (Your penny stacking notwithstanding - and don't try to tell me you know the change in rate oceans will rise, nor does Chu give a time frame, which is of course, the crux of the question ) Gary doesn't get a pass because he knows full well he's blowing smoke. You blow better smoke, but you're still blowing it.
And those of my "ilk' (scientists? responsible posters? educated people? uh... just who is my ilk anyway?) who make erroneous statements don't do so knowing they're erroneous, nor do they do it to get attention, a following of woolly-minded people, Gather points or whatever it is Gary gets from this. Honest error is one thing. Preying on the lazy and muddled is another. Not that they don't ask for it.
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The driver is fragile ego. What other explanation is there?
I love it when you talk religious to me. You should get in touch with Jimmy Swaggart. He could learn so much from you.
I guess you missed the word "gradient". You might want to look it up at www.webster.com.
I am measuring how the asphalt parking lots affect the micro-climate of the MMTS stations. Oh yeah, and the buildings, and the concrete and the south facing slopes.
You know....all that quality control stuff that NOAA and NASA and all your "scientists who understand their data"......don't know or care about.
You see, David, while you do religion, others do science.
( Jimmy Swaggart is to science what atheism is to fundamentalists.)
You've ceased to interest me. Later all.
It is the skeptics who present evidence, the believers only present belief. As for denouncing you as "heathen", you mistake me for David. He is the religious fanatic who denounces"Denialists".
I accused him of being a preacher, not a heathen.
What is wrong with trying to make the world a cleaner, healthier, less polluted place to live?
Nothing, I just do not understand why it take lies, fear and $Billions to Wall Street firms in Carbon-taxes to accomplish it.
I think we share the same loathing of religion, Elizabeth, I don't believe climate fundamentalists anymore than you believe the Evangelicals. I see little difference between them.
After reading this thread, and seeing some of Sarah's comments I went over to Gary's thread, the one with the "chemistry". Now, I really like Gary, and I think he is a smart guy. But oh my. I am posting this here, because Gary's thread seems to be over, and this is still active. Gary, buddy, no offense, but molecular weights of molecules (using the units of grams per mole) has nothing to do with density, and whether a particular gas will rise or sink. I thought maybe you were joking, but apparently not. Anyway, as Sarah has said, it really doesnt pay to say something that is profoundly wrong. Doesnt do much for credibility.
Okay, besides being delusional, and know nothing about science, at least you have revealed your real motives (other than the fragile ego thing).
And you're right. He's a smart guy, and he knows what he writes is garbage. But he does it anyway. That's why he is a poser. He gets his jollies by purposely playing on the lack of understanding of others. It's his "ooh, I'm so smart to pull the wool over the eyes of all these lesser folk" motivation. And his minions drool over him, which boosts his ego, which is all he really cares about anyway.
And my hypothesis for this thread has been confirmed.
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Oh Dear.
After reading this thread, and seeing some of Sarah's comments I went over to Gary's thread, the one with the "chemistry". Now, I really like Gary, and I think he is a smart guy. But oh my. I am posting this here, because Gary's thread seems to be over, and this is still active. Gary, buddy, no offense, but molecular weights of molecules (using the units of grams per mole) has nothing to do with density, and whether a particular gas will rise or sink. I thought maybe you were joking, but apparently not. Anyway, as Sarah has said, it really doesnt pay to say something that is profoundly wrong. Doesnt do much for credibility.
In my earlier comments, I forgot to say thank you for posting such an excellent and thought provoking article. I would also like to express my respect for Greg, who I believe has often raised some interesting points, and who I believe is serious about trying to get at the truth of things.
What I would like to do is try to reframe the discussion, and re-direct the dialog. The real issue is not whether or not we are in a warming trend. We are. Nor is the issue whether or not fossil fuel burning has contributed to this warming. It has. There is no real argument on these points, although there are some reports (as there always are) that are not confirmatory.
So is that it? Am I saying there is nothing left to discuss? Not at all. Here are the real issues, the questions whose answers are truly unknown, and that should be open to debate. For most of these, the data, including real observations and modeling data, are not yet sufficient to come up with answers
1. How much warming will the Earth sustain over the future decades?
This is critical. I have heard very convincing and terrifying presentations of the consequences of a 10 degree rise in average global temperatures over the next century. On the other hand a 1 to 2 degree rise in temps is a whole different story
2. Are there any positive aspects to warming?
This of course depends on the answer to #1. There is nothing good about a 10 degree rise. But what about 1-3 degrees? I think there may be some beneficial aspects to a small rise in temps. These include the avoidance of the overdue ice age, as mentioned above, longer growing seasons, increase overall liquid water, etc. Of course, this is balanced by more severe weather, loss of low lying land etc.
3. The BIG one. What should be done, and at what cost? I believe some “solutions” are far worse than the problem. Things like putting cooling particles in the atmosphere is a terrible idea. Carbon tax? Well now we are dealing with economic issues that are over my head, but clearly, especially in this period, we must be careful about costly solutions that have a low return on investment.
There are many other important and unanswered questions on this topic. Scientists in the field are actively trying to get answers to them to help guide policy makers. As in all scientific issues (and I know David agrees with me here) the more we can avoid bringing in extraneous political agenda type issues to muddy the waters (or the air in this case) the easier it will be to come up with some good ideas.
1) Obviously this is a complex question, and must include a discussion of the ramifications of whatever changes we make. No change, might mean more rapid increases. Significant change, say to a reduced CO2 output sustainable energy system, could mean significant limits on increases. Some options may have more impact than others.
2) Of course, the whole "average global temperature" metric is only one part of the story. Significant differences in impact will, and are, occurring in different places. Some may not mind it getting a little warmer, while others may find they are under water. Longer growing seasons in some places might mean drought and desertification in other places. We need to see this not just on the "average" but on the regional and local impact levels as well.
3) Aye, there's the rub. The biggest problem with the denialists is that they distract from the debate we should be having, i.e., what policy decisions are necessary? As you note, some options being considered may not only be ineffective, but could make things worse. It is likely that all options haven't even been put on the table yet. This needs to be done.
Bottom line, having an intellectually honest discussion is how we should deal with these issues. I know there are several people on Gather who are actively assessing various options. They are doing this in their real lives, and merely using Gather to communicate. As noted herein, scientific debate does not occur on Gather, it occurs in real life.
See Greg.....Yer "STOOPID"!
And.......OOPS!
Seems your new tactic of reposting posts you see as supportive of your positions or critical of your opponents just got thrown back in your face....by Sy...LOL!
Thanks Sy.
Also, you might want to reread Sy's comment.
Really?
By reading your posts one gets the idea that it's all about the "consensus" and not much else matters.
"3) Aye, there's the rub."
Where?..What "rub"? there isn't one except you're looking for some reason to criticize your opponents to dismiss and demean them.
I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't think I'm in the minority in my thinking,
We skeptics are skeptical on only one issue that is the issue of man made C02 being the cause of global warming, we don't deny that global warming might be happening and that action should be taken to help protect lives and property, we/I believe the discussion in that direction would be beneficial much more so than the contentious discussions, the name calling by the global warmists here on Gather.
"Dan - You seem to be obsessed with calling people "stoooopid." Why is that?"
Try as you might to deflect David....You continually refer (imply) to people who oppose you as ignorant, uneducated, defective in some manner.
I just highlight your abuse with the word "STOOPID".
"Also, you might want to reread Sy's comment."
I did, I had to read it a second time cause I couldn't believe that he was dissing you! Thats when I laughed my butt off!
I'm still looking for it! LOL!
Sy,
BTW I know you would never intentially "diss" anyone, it just worked out that way.
Dan E., May 2, 2009, 7:57am EDT
Apparently you are not reading very closely.
"I can't speak for anyone else, but I don't think I'm in the minority in my thinking,"
But you are in the minority in your thinking.
"Try as you might to deflect David....You continually refer (imply) to people who oppose you as ignorant, uneducated, defective in some manner."
Again, you infer rather than I imply. I have never said anyone is uneducated or defective. As for ignorant, as I have stated, the problem is one of actively seeking ignorance (misinformation) rather than knowledge (information).
"I did, I had to read it a second time cause I couldn't believe that he was dissing you! Thats when I laughed my butt off!"
You might want to try reading it a third time.
But I am more concerned with the fundamentals.
The chain goes: data, information, knowledge, wisdom. What I see is public policy being built on biased data, insufficient information, faulty knowledge and precious little wisdom.
I will give you a classic example: the British Met Office has just received funding for "Big Black", a 140 million dollar supercomputer to do climate modeling. NASA has a similar appropriation. Yet, with all this money set aside for modeling, there are no funds to re-site or replace the 70% of surface stations that are grossly substandard by NOAA's own criteria. Yet we will input data from this network into $140,000,000 super-computer models and expect something other than garbage to emerge from the garbage we put in.
The United States Historic Climate Network (USHCN) is substandard, but it is far superior to what we find around the world.
We rely on a mercury in glass thermometer in Russia to gleam the average temperature of an area twice the size of Texas.
There are no rural surface stations in Africa.
There are huge swaths of the earth unmeasured by surface stations or satellites.
This situation has existed for decades with the full knowledge of NOAA, NASA and the IPCC.
To move from data to knowledge we need good data, but we also need repeatability, traceability and transparency in all processes that ultimately result in costly public policy.
These things have been lacking in climate science.
Let me ask you this, as a researcher, do you archive all your data? Do you make publicly funded data, available to the public?
But that is just your perception, not a reflection of reality. The problem is that you see uncertainty in some data and you extrapolate that to say that all the models are wrong, not to mention all the thousands of studies that also have been incorporated into the analysis. Again, your perception is based on the lack of acknowledgment of the totality of the data and how the models work.
"Yet we will input data from that network into $140,000,000 super-computer models and expect something other than garbage to emerge from the garbage we put in."
Again, you presume all that is put in is garbage. You are incorrect in this presumption.
To reiterate my basic point about the one that you constantly repeat, the uncertainty in the data that you mention is only a tiny part of the big picture of climate change research. You point to the smudge on the 2-inch square of plastic of a car bumper, and presume that it invalidates the existence of the car. It doesn't. Nor is the uncertainty in some of the data lost on the researchers, so suggesting that this is some game-changing revelation is simply not demonstrating an understanding of the science.
Try to think logically and precisely. I did not "extrapolate that to say that all the models are wrong". I said clearly and logically, many times in these threads, that MODELS BASED ON BAD DATA CANNOT PRODUCE ACCURATE AND PRECISE RESULTS.
I fail to see why you are having such difficulty with this.
Logically, all models are not based on actual climate data, so logically “all models” could not be wrong. Some may be modeling theoretical aspects of the atmosphere, some may be modeling clouds or the albedo of mature corn fields. I have no problem with these models, however I do have a problem with long-range models based on historical datasets that are biased.
As for the "thousands of studies", I had no idea that the USHCN or the GHCN were subject to such scrutiny. You should inform the climate science community about all these studies, I am sure they will be shocked to learn about this.
Here is what we know, and for all the readers of this thread, here is the history of David's denial of the problem.
- I have directed David to statements by NASA's Jim Hansen where he acknowledged the network was substandard and deteriorating.
- I have directed David to peer-reviewed studies that document the upward bias of LULC conditions on the USHCN network.
- I have posted visual evidence of the network that even a child could detect the problem.
- I have directed David to a database of metadata and photographic surveys of the station that meticulously document the condition of the network.
And his reaction has simply been to deny what can clearly be seen and read.
Unfortunately it turns out that like all other threads posted about global warming The people that support global warming action based on scientific research put up proof of global warming based on scientific research over many years and the deniers just say global warming is just another conspiracy theory and end every one of their arguments with "its a lie" or not true" or "the scientists are feeding us false information" but the deniers never come up with the smallest scrap of proof for their denial and they want us to stumble along in the dark with them.
You have a serious problem with emotion and illogic. You also have a problem with the willy-nilly insertion of the word "all"
I made no such presumption. What said was -- and here is the quote."something other than garbage to emerge from the garbage we put in".
Let's use logic, like how logic is used in science. If bias is input into a system, then logically, the output must contain bias.
Do you know enough about logic, or science to understand that?
I have directed David to peer-reviewed studies that document the upward bias of LULC conditions on the USHCN network.
Here is what I cited.
That was over a decade ago.