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by David K.
Member since:
April 29, 2007

Global Warming Denialists - The Art of Deception

March 15, 2009 07:11 AM EDT (Updated: August 03, 2009 02:57 AM EDT)
views: 1545 | rating: 7.4/10 (47 votes) | comments: 340

Global warming denialists are carrying on an ideologically motivated campaign to discredit real climate science. And they are doing so by willfully and repeatedly misrepresenting the state of our knowledge. They have several methods that all scientists and every citizen should be on the look out for, and these methods should be exposed for what they are - purposeful deceit of the public.

Some of the more prevalent methods to deceive the public include:

"Global warming is just a theory, and the science is still unsettled"

Denialists are fond of manipulating the public by misrepresenting the meaning of scientific theory. They do this to suggest that the science of climate change is still unsettled. But the science of climate change is clear. The scientific consensus is clear.

"The IPCC is ignoring the science"

Except that it isn't. The IPCC, and the thousands of researchers on whose studies the IPCC relies for its compilation of the state-of-the-science, examine every legitimate study that has been conducted regarding climate science. Any new valid data are also incorporated into the discussion, which is why the IPCC, for example, revises its reports every few years - they are incorporating newer data. Claims of "they are ignoring solar forcing" and others, for example, are patently false, and the denialists know this but continue with their charade.

"Many scientists disagree with the IPCC"

Some legitimate scientists legitimately disagree with parts of the consensus. And as legitimate scientists they present their real scientific data to real scientific peer-review. As yet, the legitimate disagreement has been on specific data or on specific interpretation. But these disagreements have been unpersuasive to the vast community of scientists as far as changing the consensus. It comes down to the preponderance of evidence. And the preponderance of the evidence remains clear. Most of the time these legitimate scientists actually, in the end, provide support to the consensus by helping to fine-tune specific details.

"So and so scientist says that global warming is wrong"

To scientists this is one of the most despicable and deceitful ploys used by global warming denialists. They "quote" a certain scientist to suggest that the scientist agrees with their denialist position. Except they selectively quote to misrepresent the scientist's position. Several scientists have had to issue corrections - often repeatedly - to clarify their position or even to deny that their research says what the denialists say it means. One scientist has been fighting for years to stop denialists from continuing to misquote his research, which they continue to do intentionally to claim the exact opposite of what the scientist's research actually concludes. Another had to issue a statement - and even ensure it was posted on his Wiki biography - to refute the way denialists have mischaracterized his views. A major scientific organization had to issue a press release to warn that denialists had fraudulently mimicked its journal design with the explicit goal of suggesting the organization supported their view. It does not.

"Independent organization scientists refute global warming"

One of the favorite means for denialists to deceive the public is to create a "science sounding" organization and pass it off as independent. This despite the fact that all the funding comes from industry donors, ideological foundations, and "private citizens" (who oddly enough tend to be associated with industry donors and ideological foundations). The claim of independence is farcical, as these organizations are merely front groups for the industrial and ideological firms who fund them. Even the handful of scientists they employ are shared amongst the groups to create the illusion that there are more dissenters than are there in truth. More deceit.

"A conference to present the science refuting the global warmist agenda"

Another trick of the denialists is to sponsor a conference in which will be presented "the real science that global warmists ignore." As noted above, no real science is ignored, so this in itself is deceit. But the deceit goes even further as the conference is billed as a scientific conference when in fact it is nothing but an advocacy meeting designed to confuse the public and influence politicians. The recent conference sponsored by the conservative Heartland Institute is a perfect example of the deception employed by the global warming denialist industry. Besides the ideologically oriented HI, the conference was co-sponsored by 57 other organizations, every one of which were ideological, libertarian, anti-tax, pro-business and free-market organizations. No scientific organizations participated. The handful of "science sounding" organizations (about 6 of 57) were the deceitful front groups mentioned in the last point. No new scientific data were presented, and in fact the only science presented was the same old information that has been repeated for years. Any legitimate science would be presented at legitimate scientific conferences and published in peer-reviewed journals. As such, any legitimate science is already part of the consensus and any new legitimate data will be added to the analysis. The conference was a sham designed to deceive.

"Such and such a source says..."

One common ploy is circular citation. The denialist industry creates a "press release" masquerading as scientific opinion. It then ensures that it circulates to its network of bloggers - some paid, others merely ideological lackeys - for distribution. Call it the "cut-and-paste" method of creating the impression that there is more uncertainty than there is, more disagreement than there is, and more authority than there is. Citing a blog that stole from another blog that stole from another blog that got it from the industry denialist machine is a combination of lazy and deceitful. The intent is to create an implied volume of information when it is in fact nothing more than creative plagiarism. Given that any person with a computer can publish anything they want without any kind of check on its factual integrity, no blog can be used for anything more than ascertaining the blogger's opinion, which by definition is tuned to their inherent biases. That's why you get the same sort of "conspiracy theory" stories showing up on "conspiracy theory" blogs. In short, citing a blog as a source of scientific fact is meaningless, not to mention that it and shows a lack of scientific understanding and/or a willingness to deceive.

"The science definitively says that global warming is not happening"

False. Often this comes in the form of "we know that the temperatures are cooling" or "the sun is causing global warming." These are third-grade level misunderstandings (at best) or intentional misrepresentations (most likely) of the science. But by making the statement definitively the denialists know it sounds authoritative to the public. Just like former vice-president Dick Cheney stating definitively that Saddam Hussein had WMDs (he did not) and that Iraq was involved with the 9/11 attacks (they were not). Being authoritative does not change a lie into the truth, but it does cynically take advantage of the natural tendency for people to assume forceful statements represent reality. This is deception and should be called deception.

"Global warmists are pushing a political agenda for the funding"

This is a clear case of the pot calling the kettle black. Climate scientists toiled for decades doing research, generally with very limited funding. Anyone who knows how much scientists get paid know they don't do it "for the money." In fact, for the denialist industry (funded lavishly by some of the biggest corporations on the planet) to disingenuously suggest that the science is political and their obvious political is science is, well, audacity at its most cynical.

"Al Gore's theories..."

One common ploy - called misdirection by public relations firms and professional magicians alike - is to suggest that Al Gore "invented" global warming, and thus it is a political rather than scientific consensus. Al Gore is a former politician and now businessman who also just happens to have a three decade interest in science issues. His "Inconvenient Truth" presentation is designed to communicate the long-time research of climate scientists. He didn't invent global warming, he is merely a messenger. The science itself has nothing to do with Al Gore, and the denialists know this. They merely use Gore in their sleight-of-hand attempts to misdirect attention away from the fact that there is a clear scientific consensus on global warming.

"Repetition"

Repetition ties all the previous deceit together into a continuous stream of "information" that by shear volume and tenacity is designed to create the illusion of authority. The same handful of "points" are repeated over and over again long after they have been discredited as false, illogical, or just plain silly. The same "experts" are trotted out even though it has been shown that their scientific credibility and integrity is equivocal (to be clear, some of these are legitimate scientists who legitimately disagree, but many are being used as shills by the denialist industry and others are mere charlatans selling snake oil for the industry money). The same "science is being ignored" line is repeated even after it has been shown that the science has already been incorporated into the consensus (even, in fact, after pointing to a specific set of pages in which this point is discussed). The repetition of falsehood is part of the ploy. And it is dishonest.

"Global warmists only demean the "skeptics" because they can't discredit the science"

This is a favorite tactic. As noted above, all real science is presented to the scientific community for peer-review and discussion. Most of the "science" of the skeptics has been shown time and time again to be spurious, incorrect, or irrelevant. Much of it is deliberately misleading, misrepresented, or outright fraudulent. Many scientists and others have spent considerable time evaluating the "cut-and-pasted from blog" science of denialists, and even after their contention is shown to be false and/or completely uninformed or illogical, they continue to repeat the same untruths.

As scientists, and as human beings, we must ask ourselves whether it is "unkind" to call a liar a liar. Should we ignore dishonesty by the denialists because to point out their dishonesty might hurt their feelings? But think about this. Would one not call a murderer a murderer because it would be "unkind" to the murderer? Is it not unkind to the victims to not stand up for their rights? Is it unkind to call Bernie Madoff a swindler, when he in fact is a swindler? What of the rights of his victims? Is it unkind to refute deception?

Should we not call a deceiver a deceiver?

The denialist industry has undertaken a campaign of deception that follows the same playbook as the "smoking isn't addictive and doesn't cause cancer" playbook of the past. Even some of the players are the same. So should a scientist, or a non-scientist who also lives on this planet, stand back and allow the denialists to deceive the public for their own ideological profit?

I think the answer is clear.

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Comments: 340

Sam Carana Mar 15, 2009, 7:39am EDT
Well said, David. Allow me to add a punchline. It's time to stop giving deniers further undeserved attention. It's time to look at what needs to be done about global warming.
Rude D. Mar 15, 2009, 7:42am EDT
Exactly, the deniars are insignificant.
pamela r. Mar 15, 2009, 7:54am EDT
sounds like all the same tactics used by the powerful to keep control of the masses that have been used thru the centuries--sad things is--the masses still suck it up like gospel--we've become a species that has forgotten how to reason/think etc for ourselves--most would rather receive the daily portion of pablum fed to them by the media etc.
Jack E. Mar 15, 2009, 8:26am EDT
Global warming that has been proven by scientific fact is not theory its plain fact. I have not found any deniers that have shown any proof that global warming enhanced by human activity is a scare tactic.
Nick Howes Mar 15, 2009, 8:34am EDT
I always found it amusing that people believe Gore the ultimate source of wisdom about global warming when, as a politician, he's not believed about anything else. At least some of the evidence he quotes is, at best, questionable. There does appear to be global warming, but there are those who believe that it is a natural process. By the way, since we're talking about "follow the money"...how about the businesses that supporg lobal warming and what it'll do for them?
Chris W. Mar 15, 2009, 8:40am EDT
Snap, David! That was well done, especially that bit about lying. Is it unkind to refute a lie? No, indeed it is unkind to allow a lie to stand unchallenged, because kindness in the cause of deception is no virtue, and unkindness in the cause of truth is no vice.

A world of niceness and monumental ignorance and deception is not the world that I crave.
Connie H. Mar 15, 2009, 8:42am EDT
Yes the answer is clear, people should point out when denialist are deceiving the public for their own benefit. It is wrong and people deserve to know the truth.
Chris W. Mar 15, 2009, 8:43am EDT
Nick, so Gore is "note believed about anything else", huh? I remind you that he received several hundred thousand more popular votes in 2000 than the other guy did, so somebody "believed" him then.

But as David pointed out, it's not about Al Gore, it's about science, and those like yourself who seek to make it about liking or disliking Gore do us all a vast disservice.
Poliwonk USA Mar 15, 2009, 8:48am EDT
"Global warming denialists are carrying on an ideologically motivated campaign to discredit real climate science"

There is NO Real Science in global warming. The Glonbal Warming Alarmists would have you think otherwise. There is equal credibility proving against it. Much of what is occuring is cyclical climatic changes. There is not one undeniable proof of global warming, It is all "a reasonable guess" and hypothesis.
Joan D. Mar 15, 2009, 8:51am EDT
.peace Pictures, Images and Photos.
Commenting & Speeding Away..
Chris W. Mar 15, 2009, 8:51am EDT
Poliwonk, nice try, I think you prefer the "repetition" technique that David mentions. By the way, IPCC science is not "undeniable" to you simply because you have do not wish to accept the science, for political reasons.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 8:54am EDT
Thanks Poliwonk. I'll let others say which of my bulleted points your response falls into (multiple answers are allowed).
("Gather Site Street-Walking Cheetah")Dorian T. Mar 15, 2009, 8:58am EDT
One of the most creepy things about these anti-reality troopers is that if it wasn't for their ready-made and/or home-made indoctrination, they would see that this is not a joke and this not a game show where they might win or lose a question.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 9:18am EDT
I don't normally even notice what ratings I get on articles, but apparently some denialists don't like having their deception exposed.
Purrrrrrrrrrr~Genki dashite~Nantoka naru-yo! S. Mar 15, 2009, 9:18am EDT
They are a curious breed of thinkers who have conveniently pocketed their vision behind blinders.
Global warming is a theory? Um, yeah, okay, they should go hang out with the polar bears for a month and then have an opinion.
Felix R. Mar 15, 2009, 9:31am EDT
Hey, climate change...in my neck of the woods we get that 4 times each year. Exactly when is the sky scheduled to drop on us 'scientific' goobers and gomers. chicken Pictures, Images and Photos
Peter Joseph Swanson Mar 15, 2009, 9:36am EDT
Some people have no time for such mainstream science.

They think that we all can pollute and populate and cut down without end, and then Jesus comes back (probably down out of the clouds) and puts them in Heaven and the most of the rest of us in Hell.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 9:40am EDT
I should add "Suggest that the scientists who study the science have missed all the important factors and don't really know anything about the science...at least not as well as a bunch of bloggers."

Also known as "create a straw man to shoot down" as a means of ridicule. The real intent, of course, is deflecting from the real science.
Steve B. Mar 15, 2009, 9:45am EDT
David.

Excellent article!!! It's high time someone confronted the deceit (lies) of global warming denialism. Personally, I find it a complete waste of time "discussing" this "issue" with denialists - and going forward, I plan to focus more on the legitimate science and solutions. Thanks for putting this together.

Sam: "It's time to stop giving deniers further undeserved attention. It's time to look at what needs to be done about global warming."

I second that, Sam. All in favor?
JOHN BECK Mar 15, 2009, 9:47am EDT
David, nobody can fault you for under supporting your position!
Ron Hall Mar 15, 2009, 9:55am EDT
This is clearly written, and thus meets the criteria for being featured in the Sunday Gather Essentials Writing group. I do not mean to say there are no other clearly-written pieces, of course, but rather I mean to encourage clear writing in general, and I can only feature one piece at a time. As a bonus, you have something to say.
Tammy N. Mar 15, 2009, 10:03am EDT
When it comes to global warming/climate change... I'm a simple lay person. Here's my opinion.....

Is the climate changing? Yes. (We didn't move out of the ice-age for no reason.) Will it always change? Yes. Do humans have the ablilty to speed or slow the change? Yes. I actually believe the issue IS that simple.

Where it becomes complicated is when people, government and business attempt to exploit science for personal, political, and/or financial gain. As humans, many of us are naturally skeptical of people that walk to one tune while singing another. This is where the messenger is equally important to the message.

I wouldn't take financially planning advice from a homeless person begging me for a buck to buy food.... and find it absurd to accept environmental/green/climate change advice from a jet-setting, carbon pig (Al Gore). My family (larger than his!) has a considerably smaller carbon footprint. Why should I change? Wouldn't it be easier and more effective for him to change? The assumption that he deserves credit for shedding light on the subject and therefore should be excluded/forgiven for his excesses is ridiculous... and breeds criticism for the cause.

Yes, I understand this discussion is about the science and not Al Gore, but I believe that science isn't the problem. It's science being mismanaged when it moves from the lab into the living room. Simply put, the problem is the disconnect between science and the lay person. Without buy-in from the lay person, little can be done to change the population's habits. How to effectively reach the lay person with unbiased, consistent information is the issue.

Lay people want unbiased, consistent information. Lately all we seem to get is different walks and different talks... and that causes the lay person to tune out!
Larry M. Mar 15, 2009, 10:08am EDT
Well done, David. You clearly know your stuff.
Spartan * Mar 15, 2009, 10:11am EDT
My stock answer regarding people who question Global Climate Change: "They think The Flintstones movie was a documentary"!
Devin Barber Mar 15, 2009, 10:13am EDT
This is scary as hell. We've always had folks who are suspicious of science. And I think it simply comes from that primitive part of human nature that tells us to fear what we do not understand.

I was watching a documentary about the conspiracy theorists who claim the moon landings were a hoax. The self appointed leader of the "we didn't land on the moon" bunch was once a low level technician with one of the contractors who built some of the components that made up the Saturn V rocket. At least that's what he presented as his credentials to make his claims. The documentary debunked the theory succinctly, but the ex-Saturn V rocket technician was not swayed. For him, the bottom line was that since "HE" was not able to work out scientifically exactly how NASA was able to do it, it obviously could not be done. Therefore, based on his understanding, any claim that a man had been sent to the moon had to be false.

The "we didn't land on the moon" conspiracy theorists aren't nearly as well funded as the global warming denialists though. And they don't pose much of a threat either. But theseglobal warming denier folks who would have us sit on our hands and do nothing based on a lie just to protect their financial interests are no better than the cruel dictators who commit genecide to achieve their political objectives.

The uninformed like Poliwonk and Felix here need to wake up and realize that we are in a fight for our very existence. The world economy is already in the ditch. Just imagine what piling on a serious food shortage would do to that bon fire.

Great article...
Dan E. Mar 15, 2009, 10:18am EDT
""Global warming is just a theory, and the science is still unsettled""

Well actually David there are almost none who deny global warming, the idea that man is a significant contributor to global warming IS a theory and the science and research is rapidly disproving that theory.

""The IPCC is ignoring the science""

Our planet has been going through a moderation of temperature for the last ten years or so, about two years ago the IPCC acknowledged that moderation and was going to look into it as far as I know they have made no public statement concerning the ten year temperature plateau or the more recent temperature drop.
So are they ignoring the science or just really really slow in responding to it?

""So and so scientist says that global warming is wrong""

I haven't read that any one has posted anyting like that in your threads David.
However there are hundreds of scientists who dispute the theory of man made global warming.

""Independent organization scientists refute global warming""

Again I don't know of any organizations that refute global warming nor has anyone posted such statements in your threads.

""The science definitively says that global warming is not happening""

Well that's just silly David, no one is saying that.

""Global warmists are pushing a political agenda for the funding""

Wow you finally got one right!

You global warmists have claimed that the skeptics have been funded by the oil industry to the tune of millions of dollars, here's a little research I did a year or so ago, since these numbers are a bit dated you can figure that they have risen substantially.

The Global Environment Facility (GEF), established in 1991, helps developing countries fund projects and programs that protect the global environment. GEF grants support projects related to biodiversity, climate change, international waters, land degradation, the ozone layer, and persistent organic pollutants.

As the financial mechanism of the Climate Convention, GEF allocates and disburses about $250 million dollars per year in projects in energy efficiency, renewable energies, and sustainable transportation. Moreover, it manages two special funds under the UNFCCC — the Least Developed Countries Fund and the Special Climate Change Fund.

Since 1991, the Global Environment Facility has provided $6.2 billion in grants and generated over $20 billion in co-financing from other sources to support over 1,800 projects that produce global environmental benefits in 140 developing countries and countries with economies in transition.
GEF funds are contributed by donor countries. In 2002, 32 donor countries pledged $3 billion to fund operations between 2002 and 2006.
The Global Environment Facility Provides grants up to 5 million.

The Climate Challenge Fund (CCF) provides financial support for communications projects seeking to achieve positive changes in public attitudes about climate change. It is designed to help cover the costs of creating and including climate change messages into existing communication channels.

The CCF will support a wide range of communications projects across the full range of media. We are interested in reaching new audiences and communities so the fund aims to support work at different levels – national organisations and regional and local level organisations, on their own, or in partnerships. The criteria against which we will be judging applications are set out in paragraph 23 of the CCF Guidance Notes.

The CCF contains 6 million pounds, to be distributed by March 2008.
The smallest grant available is £5,000. There is no stated upper limit for grants. Applicants should bear in mind the total amount of money available and the fact that we will be seeking to support a range of projects and to achieve a good geographical spread of activity throughout England.

There are over 12,000 environmental groups in the country controlling over $20 billion in assets, all unified in spreading the climate change gospel. On top of their vast holdings, many of those same groups receive federal grants for “studies” and “reports” on their climate change findings.

MIT receives climate change grants
Lindley C. Huey, Office of Foundation Relations
July 5, 2007
MIT is one of six organizations to receive support in the first round of grants from the Doris Duke Charitable Foundation as part of its $100 million initiative to tackle global climate change.

A new Government campaign is looking to raise the public awareness of climate change, by backing a number of related projects around the country. Fifty-three projects in England will receive a share of £4.6m, it has been announced.

Tribal Environmental Research and Health Promotion: Novel Approaches for Assessing and Managing Cumulative Risks and Impacts of Global Climate Change
Anticipated Funding Amount: Approximately $3 million total for all awards.

From research to spreading the word (propaganda) if it has climate change written on it you can get money for it.

""Al Gore's theories...""

AlGore's fearmongering has been discredited to many times already.

""Repetition""

Problem with that David is that you don't discredit anything, you just claim it's been discredited.

""Global warmists only demean the "skeptics" because they can't discredit the science""

Well that's true David, even in this post you have not included any science or research to validate your belief in man made global warming.

Like this example of research and science;

ACRIM-gap and TSI trend issue resolved using a surface magnetic flux TSI proxy model

Nicola Scafetta
Physics Department, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina, USA
Richard C. Willson
ACRIM, Coronado, California, USA

"2] The contiguous ~30 year TSI database of satellite observations extends from late 1978 to the present includes the maxima and minima of three sunspot cycles. This database is comprised of the observations of seven independent experiments: Nimbus7/ERB [Hoyt et al., 1992], SMM/ACRIM1 [Willson and Hudson, 1991], ERBS/ERBE [Lee et al., 1995], UARS/ACRIM2 [Willson, 1997], SOHO/VIRGO [Fröhlich et al., 1997], ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 [Willson and Mordvinov, 2003] and SORCE/TIM [Kopp et al., 2005] (see Figures S1–S3 of the auxiliary material). None of these independent datasets covers the entire period of observation, thus a composite of the database is necessary to obtain a TSI time series."

Included in the conclusion;
"[24] This finding has evident repercussions for climate change and solar physics. Increasing TSI between 1980 and 2000 could have contributed significantly to global warming during the last three decades [Scafetta and West, 2007, 2008]. Current climate models [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007] have assumed that the TSI did not vary significantly during the last 30 years and have therefore underestimated the solar contribution and overestimated the anthropogenic contribution to global warming."

http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0905/2008GL036307/

"I think the answer is clear."

Me too!
Vivian P. Mar 15, 2009, 10:58am EDT
very good article David

All these deniers make me think of all the people of Washington who didn't believe the scientist that Mt. St. Helens was going to erupt. Especially one Harry Truman who is buried under tons of ash and mud somewhere on the mountain.
From what I've seen in my lifetime I not only believe in global warming. I am sure of it.
Joe T. Mar 15, 2009, 11:14am EDT
I see that there are a few comments attempting to refute the validity of this article, David. It is well reasoned and describes the situation of the deniers. I always call them what they are: LIARS. I can't claim to understand why they are arguing with these scientists. It doesn't make any sense to me. What do they have to gain? Global warming is a real phenomenon and is happening regardless of man's choices to do something or nothing about it.
Bob Cronley Mar 15, 2009, 11:17am EDT
I, too, believe that global warming is happening, but don't believe that mankind is contributing that much to it.

John Coleman on Global Warming

Also, google "ice ages." You will find that we have been in a warming trend for the past 10,000 to 40,000 years, depending on the page you view.

Global warming is inevitable, and we should prepare for it, for sure. But also be forewarned about those who would lay the guilt trip on humans for it happening. These are the same type of people who told our ancestors that cutting a calf and putting it on the alter would keep the thunderstorm away.
Dan E. Mar 15, 2009, 11:23am EDT
Well Joe,

You have to resort to name calling because you can not refute the science that shows the IPCC doctrine invalid.
David K. Jun 7, 2009, 5:28am EDT

"Name-calling is the best you can do?"

Yep, straight out of the "Skeptics Handbook," a comic book created by Joanna Nova, a performance artist who describes herself as "a science presenter: at conferences & dinners; on radio & TV; and in books & magazines."  Apparently does a great children's show in Australia.  Doesn't actually know a lick about climate change, but hey, she can cut-and-paste from blogs.

Nice to see the critical thinking there Dan.  Besides blindly employing the "tips" from the "Skeptics Handbook," your contributions are almost primarily verbatim cut-and-pastes from blogs (sound familiar).  Yep, someone we can rely on for unbiased, well-thought out analysis on this topic.

John S. (arizona) Mar 15, 2009, 11:29am EDT
I can't help but say I think the biggest denial there is, is that somehow the planet climate would remain static if we weren't here. The planet continues to have a dynamic ever changing climate! Always has, always will. Does that make me a denier? I don't think so.
Who seriously thinks if we did not put one ounce of CO2 or whatever in the air, that the climate would remain static just because we are here now? That sea levels will never change just for our convenience? Science says it won't, us being here or not, that's a fact.
I find this fact conveniently left out of almost every debate on this subject I read in here. I see both sides of the argument actually, and find myself in the middle ground. It almost gets irritating to me that people think we have such power to control the climate of this planet at our will! The only reason we are so populace and successful now is that we are in between the harsher cycles.
Now, that all said, I think the real issue is how much are we helping this process along, or speeding it up; and what can we do smartly to help limit our contributions. To me that is the rational approach, not the strict denial angle or the sky is falling angle. Why put more into the air than we have too? Does anybody know just how much we can put into the atmosphere to have no effect? I don't think we have all those answers, but I guarantee it will never be zero as a realistic target. It might be a good idea to put some efforts into actually getting ready for some of this by planning for the future as the worlds population continues to grow... it's coming.
No matter what we do though, the human race is going to have to prepare for what mother nature has in store. People are at some time going to have to move, adapt, adjust... as we have in our beginnings and onward to today. We tend to see time in such small increments... bugs me. The Sahara was a garden not that long ago, but long in a person/our mind's eye.
No doubt some places on earth will benefit, and others suffer... it's called change. People hate/resist change...
Take care, and thanks.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 11:44am EDT
"I think the answer is clear."

"Me too!"

Thank you for providing an exemplar of virtually every point in this article.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 11:51am EDT
Bob - Can you explain the significance of your link, since it leads to an incomplete Snopes page. It doesn't actually reach a conclusion, it merely reprints a supposed email message from the founder of the Weather Channel. Emails are even less reliable than blogs as a source of information, which we all got ample examples of in the last election campaigns. But even if the email message is in fact from Coleman, it still has no scientific meaning. It would be akin to the "we didn't land on the moon" argument that Devin presents above. One person's opinion is meaningless. It is the prepoderance of the evidence that leads to consensus.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 11:58am EDT
I could add "Global warming doesn't exist because the planet warms and cools naturally."

Except the planet's cycles occur in 10,000 or 100,000 or even 1,000,000 year time frames, not 50 years like we are observing. And the planet back then didn't have 6 billion people (and growing exponentially) pumping CO2 into the air. And China and India (1/4 of that total so far) are just now beginning to pump CO2 into the air at the rate that Americans or even Europeans have been doing it.
Dan E. Mar 15, 2009, 12:00pm EDT
"Thank you for providing an exemplar of virtually every point in this article."

Using your own unique dictionary again David?
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 12:21pm EDT
The standard one seems to work for most people, as everyone else apparently comprehends quite clearly.
Dan E. Mar 15, 2009, 12:21pm EDT
"Except the planet's cycles occur in 10,000 or 100,000 or even 1,000,000 year time frames, not 50 years like we are observing."

Ah yes,

As the earth's temperature rose in conjunction with the amount of C02 in the atmosphere (supposedly) year by year you global warmists claimed 'see there's proof' global warming is caused by man.

But now that the earths temperature has stopped warming, you guys say' 'we can't look at those same time frames'.

Besides that hypocrisy, the earths fluctuations occur in much shorter time frames than you claim,
the peak of the medieval warm period and the dip of the little iceage is around 400 years which BTW is the dip we are climbing out of from some 400 years ago.

"not 50 years like we are observing"

Although it doesn't seem to be historically consistant, it does seem that there has an increase in sun spot activity at about 50 year cycles for the last 2-300 years.
Dan E. Mar 15, 2009, 12:24pm EDT
"The standard one seems to work for most people,"

But apparently not for you.
Glome . . . Mar 15, 2009, 12:25pm EDT
and even ensure it was posted on his Wiki biography

Who is that picture? Is that the scientist of the one that wrote the article? I couldn't find the name of the author any place. There was a link saying to join him in Gather but the link didn't work. I am in the process of researching on my own since I think it is a natural cycle. I want to be sure I don't let that blind me & am trying to genuinely learn truth.
You mention wrong quotes etc but don't give names of scientists or the misquotes.

"Independent organization scientists refute global warming"
Where are the names and links? I really want to read them.

"The handful of "science sounding" organizations (about 6 of 57) were the deceitful front groups mentioned in the last point"
Who are they David? I keep thinking I'm going to get something I can sink my teeth into but you don't give me any meat. I need names and places so I can check them out; I don't want to just take your word that these people are deceitful.

I was truly excited to see your article & give an honest fight FOR global warming to myself but so far, (I'm not finished :) I've pretty much gotten name calling with no facts. You did mention (Which I appreciate) "...conference sponsored by the conservative Heartland Institute is a perfect example of the deception employed by the global warming denialist industry."
I'm somewhat familiar with Heartland ... I'm going to check them out. But why do you throw everyone that disagrees with you in the same pot of 'deception' and 'denialist industry?' I know you are a person of high standards but I don't think you are displaying an attitude of integrity toward many of us that disagree that man has a significant role in the warming.
I'm still very happy that the enthusiasm of the 'global warming' side has made us clean up our air. I do believe they are sincere in their beliefs. I think some of them are deliberately dishonest (like Gore; although I believe it is his sincere belief in man's part that motivates his dishonesty.)

Oh my gosh David, I think you are so filled with disdain for us that you can't hear if we do bring any facts to the table.

I keep reading a paragraph then coming down to comment. I just read the paragraph,
""Such and such a source says...""
I'm not reading any further. Scanning the titles on the way down it's obvious you're goal is to trash the opposition; not point us to informative articles or truths. It is true we get our material from others. So do you. We must lean on the work of many scientists and put it together the best we can. Quote what we consider good material to back up why we believe what we do. There's nothing wrong with that David. That's the reality of how we all form opinions about most things.
You haven't given us scientific reasoning's ... all you've done is trashed us. I'm not sure why you wrote this.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 12:49pm EDT
David, I am curious what you think the consensus is. Another tactic you failed to mention is the continued and annoying tendency of denialists to link their assertions with evidence that should meet your approval.

I for one have cited disclaimers in the IPCC reports. The IPCC assessment report states that inconsistent methods are used to make projections and that future events such as flooding, heatwaves, and extreme weather are poorly known.

Now, here's the thing: if you and your zealot friends here ignore the disclaimers in the IPCC reports, then it is you who are in denial. I always read the fine print of any report, not just the hype. What are you gonna do?
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 12:55pm EDT
"They are a curious breed of thinkers who have conveniently pocketed their vision behind blinders.
Global warming is a theory? Um, yeah, okay, they should go hang out with the polar bears for a month and then have an opinion."

You should read the disclaimers in the IPCC reports then have an opinion. I have provided a link in my previous comment. I am curious though; have you actually spent time with polar bears? LOL!
Ralph Protsik Mar 15, 2009, 1:02pm EDT
Two questions I ask of the nay-sayers, both of which seem to stop most in their tracks, or at least call out their true colors, are -- (1) what would it take for you to change your opinion? and (2) assuming you are right and the preponderance of scientists are wrong, what changes would you make in US government policy and the global response to global warming? The answer to the first is usually some variant of, "Won't happen." The answer to the second gets to the real real they are saying "nay," namely it affects their pocket books, either as lobbyists, corporations with a strong interest in conventional energy sources, or someone who makes money off the first two.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 1:05pm EDT
"I always call them what they are: LIARS. I can't claim to understand why they are arguing with these scientists. It doesn't make any sense to me. What do they have to gain? Global warming is a real phenomenon and is happening regardless of man's choices to do something or nothing about it. "

Joe, let me see if I can resolve your apparent misunderstanding. I would exhort you to read the disclaimers contained in the IPCC reports before resorting to calling people liars. That namecalling is undoubtedly based on your ignorance, not any science. All scientific conclusions, by the way, are tentative, so you can expect scientists to argue amoungst themselves--that is how science progresses. It is not a religious or political movement. I know you won't take my word for any of this, so I have posted the link and sections below for your reference. Read and weep.



The IPCC itself makes the following admissions within their assessment report: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter2.pdf

Under section 2.4.1:

"...but these methods have not been defined consistently across different research communities." (In other words, methods used to make climate change projections are not consistent, so the so-called "consensus" view is a myth.)

Under section 2.4.4 there is the admission that the likelihood of future extreme events is poorly known. These extreme events include heat waves, storms and flooding.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 1:17pm EDT
"Two questions I ask of the nay-sayers, both of which seem to stop most in their tracks, or at least call out their true colors, are -- (1) what would it take for you to change your opinion?"

My opinion is based on the IPCC report disclaimers. I have posted links and references to those disclaimers above. What will change my opinion? When consistent predicions or projections are made. No one to my knowledge denies the climate changes. When has it not changed? The question is why does any change in climate necessarily spell doom and gloom? The IPCC reports freely admit that the nexus between doom-and-gloom scenarios and climate change are poorly understood. (See section 2.4.4 of the IPCC assessment report.) http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter2.pdf

"(2) assuming you are right and the preponderance of scientists are wrong, what changes would you make in US government policy and the global response to global warming?"

What the media says about the preponderance of scientists and what is actually true, are two different things. (See IPCC reports.) That being said, I would exhort the government to use those allocated funds to find a cure for cancer and aids.

"The answer to the first is usually some variant of, "Won't happen." The answer to the second gets to the real real they are saying "nay," namely it affects their pocket books, either as lobbyists, corporations with a strong interest in conventional energy sources, or someone who makes money off the first two. "

Have you done a survey or are you just talking smack?
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 1:22pm EDT
And even more examples. Thank you.

I'm not sure if "don't understand how science works" is explicitly covered in my article, so we'll just add it here for completeness. It's corollary, "misrepresenting science" is already there.

For example, Gary's cut-and-paste from a blog that conveniently extracts two sentences from their context...and low and behold...the "IPCC document" discredits itself. Except that's not what the two sentences you snipped say at all (even if you ignore the annotated biased interpretation). You have created a false conclusion from your creative snipping. That is dishonesty. Either by yourself if it was you who did it, or by your crime of omission if you simply believed some blogger from which you copied.

Thus, it would seem that Joe's characterization is appropriate.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 1:34pm EDT
BTW - For your list of organizations, see "One of the favorite means for denialists to deceive the public is to create a "science sounding" organization and pass it off as independent."
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 1:34pm EDT
"For example, Gary's cut-and-paste from a blog that conveniently extracts two sentences from their context...and low and behold...the "IPCC document" discredits itself. Except that's not what the two sentences you snipped say at all (even if you ignore the annotated biased interpretation). You have created a false conclusion from your creative snipping. That is dishonesty. Either by yourself if it was you who did it, or by your crime of omission if you simply believed some blogger from which you copied."

Ahhh, OK. So you are the one in denial. Thanks for clearing that up. Anyone who actually reads the references I posted here will see that there are in fact disclaimers in the IPCC reports. I am curious why you deny their existence? You also deny that the projeciions made within the reports are probabalistic and not factual. What do you gain by all this denial, David? Then you accuse those who read the fine print of the IPCC reports of denial. LOL! I am in denial because I read the fine print and you don't? That's rich!
James C. Mar 15, 2009, 1:41pm EDT
David,

An extremely well written and developed discussion of the detractors of global warming and their various arguments! Those who deny seem to have ore of a vested interest in their position than those who believe. Most of us who believe know full well that the correction, if possible, is not going to be cheap and that most of us will not profit from it. Our progeny will however, reap great benefits if we are successful.

You did a great job of putting together the facts and trends of thought here. Thanks!
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 1:46pm EDT
"Well Joe,You have to resort to name calling because you can not refute the science that shows the IPCC doctrine invalid. "

Hi Dan, I will add that the IPCC reports' disclaimers also acknowledge the invalidity of methods used to make projections. (See links I posted above.)
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 1:51pm EDT
"Most of us who believe know full well that the correction, if possible, is not going to be cheap and that most of us will not profit from it. Our progeny will however, reap great benefits if we are successful."

James, you believe? Sounds like a religious sermon. LOL! Have you read the disclaimers in the IPCC assessment report? I posted a link above. However, if it will screw up your religious or cult belief, don't read the disclaimers. I wouldn't want you to be upset.
James C. Mar 15, 2009, 1:51pm EDT
Tammy,

Why shouldn't the "jet-setting, carbon pig (Al Gore)" change instead of you? The best answer I can give you is that you have absolutely no ability to change any other person, only yourself and if you wish to be a part of the solution rather than a part of the problem, it will require that you change you. If, of course, you suddenly have the ability to change Gore, then more power to you but I'm not holding my breath. We all have a tendency to think we can change others instead of ourselves but it is false and extremely deceiving thought, at best.

Your statements "Without buy-in from the lay person, little can be done to change the population's habits. How to effectively reach the lay person with unbiased, consistent information is the issue.

Lay people want unbiased, consistent information. Lately all we seem to get is different walks and different talks... and that causes the lay person to tune out!" are really quite accurate. That is what make this entire issue a frustrating one for those with sincere concerns for the future of our planet and for the potential lives of our great grandchildren.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 1:52pm EDT
Gary - See my article to see which rules in the playbook you've been following.

For example, you lied by selectively cutting and pasting sentences taken out of context to suggest that they say something other than what they say. Anyone who actually reads the link to the IPCC report will see you how you misrepresented - repeatedly - those two unrelated sections of the report.

"I am in denial because I read the fine print and you don't?"

You didn't "read the fine print." You selectively extracted sentences from two pages of one section of a multi-section report and then added commentary to create a conclusion that was in line with your predetermined bias. That is called dishonesty.

As for the projections being "probabilistic and not factual," now you are also showing your ignorance of how science - and climate science in particular - is conducted. Tell me, how many measurements of next year's temperature have you taken recently?
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 1:59pm EDT
"Lay people want unbiased, consistent information."

This is true, James, and yet seems so hard to do. It doesn't help to have professional obfuscators getting paid to confuse the public. But then, that is what the denialists hope for - the goal is not to convince, but to confuse to the point of inaction. Delay is money to their benefactors, and more money in their pockets. The sad part is that there are so many ideologically willing lackeys in the blogosphere ready to lap it up on their hands and knees.

Personally, I rely on the science, and the data.
James C. Mar 15, 2009, 2:00pm EDT
Gary,

If you read the disclaimers on the average medical procedure it would probably terrify you. However, that has little to do with the success of the average medical procedure nor does it have a significant impact on the truth of the IPPC report, either. My question to you is have you read the rest of teh report or only the disclaimers?

A religion is not subject to change as it is an article of faith. I believed as you apparently do for many years, and was forced to change by a preponderance of evidence. Should the evidence change I can change my thinking tomorrow as it is not tied to any idealogical dogma. Can you say the same?

Like most non-accepters, you seem to feel that all the evidence with which you disagree is false. That is your prerogative to believe as your faith dictates. It will matter not a whit in the eventual end!

David, Sam and Steve B., have all published a wealth of information on this subject, reaching far beyond what I have time or inclination to duplicate. I hope that most people will read them with an open mind. The polar bears will be pleased to note that the ice is increasing rather than decreasing as they have been thinking!
Nora Davenport Mar 15, 2009, 2:02pm EDT
I don't pay any attention to any of this anymore..........but interesting conversations!
Dan E. Mar 15, 2009, 2:03pm EDT
"Two questions I ask of the nay-sayers, both of which seem to stop most in their tracks,"
Interesting Ralph,
I'll bite.
("1) what would it take for you to change your opinion?"

Conclusive scientific evidence.

"(2) assuming you are right and the preponderance of scientists are wrong, what changes would you make in US government policy and the global response to global warming?"

Assuming I am right, there is no emergency, there is also no action that man can take to influence global warming one way or the other.
We should take an all energy path to keep energy costs low ensuring a lesser impact on the economy, promote alternative energy in a responsible manner providing tax credits to purchasers and investors.
To encourage investment in private alternative energy systems set federal net metering regulations requiring utilities to allow 5% of the households they service to "hook up to the grid".
Sign my petition which asks the congress to do just that:

http://www.rallycongress.com/promote-alternative-energy/1498/tell-congress-to-enact-federal-private-citizen-net-metering-regulations/
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 2:06pm EDT
"Gary - See my article to see which rules in the playbook you've been following.

For example, you lied by selectively cutting and pasting sentences taken out of context to suggest that they say something other than what they say. Anyone who actually reads the link to the IPCC report will see you how you misrepresented - repeatedly - those two unrelated sections of the report. "

Well one of us is definitely a LIAR! So David, time to put up or shut up: tell us what the report allegedly says. Explain those disclaimers to us.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 2:10pm EDT
Just to be clear, this is what Gary cites as "disclaimers" (between the ***********)
***********************
The IPCC itself makes the following admissions within their assessment report: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg2/ar4-wg2-chapter2.pdf

Under section 2.4.1:

"...but these methods have not been defined consistently across different research communities." (In other words, methods used to make climate change projections are not consistent, so the so-called "consensus" view is a myth.)

Under section 2.4.4 there is the admission that the likelihood of future extreme events is poorly known. These extreme events include heat waves, storms and flooding.
***********************************************
For section 2.4.1, look at p. 144 to see how he snipped out one piece of a sentence, and then added his parenthetical comment to help the intended misinterpretation along for the reader.

For section 2.4.4, look at p. 146 to see how he snipped out one piece of a sentence to lie about what the section says.

So, Gary purposely lied about what the report said, then attempted to ridicule anyone who actually did the work to expose his lies.

Yes, I think it's time we stopped letting the denialists get away with their tricks of the trade.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 2:24pm EDT
"Explain those disclaimers to us."

What, Gary, you posted snippets carefully extracted to be devoid of meaning?

Here's the section with the first "disclaimer" you cite:
"Evaluations of future climate change impacts, adaptation, and
vulnerability require assumptions, whether explicit or implicit,
about how future socio-economic and biophysical conditions will
develop. The literature on methods of characterising the future
has grown in tandem with the literature on CCIAV, but these
methods have not been defined consistently across different
research communities. Box 2.1 presents a consistent typology of
characterisations that expands on the definitions presented in the
TAR (Carter et al., 2001), for the purpose of clarifying the use of
this terminology in this chapter. Although they may overlap,
different types of characterisations of the future can be usefully
distinguished in terms of their plausibility and ascription of
likelihood, on the one hand, and the comprehensiveness of their
representation, on the other (see Box 2.1 for definitions). Since
the TAR, comprehensiveness has increased and ascriptions of
likelihood have become more common. The following sections
make use of the typology in Box 2.1 to address notable advances
in methods of characterising the future."

Even here you can't discern the total meaning without reading the rest of the context in the other sections, but it shows how you dishonestly snipped the sentence fragment.

Here's the second part, on another page:
"Temporal and spatial analogues are applied in a range of
CCIAV studies. The most common of recently reported temporal
analogues are historical extreme weather events. These types of
event may recur more frequently under anthropogenic climate
change, requiring some form of adaptation measure. The
suitability of a given climate condition for use as an analogue
requires specialist judgement of its utility (i.e., how well it
represents the key weather variables affecting vulnerability) and
its meteorological plausibility (i.e., how well it replicates
anticipated future climate conditions). Examples of extreme
events judged likely or very likely by the end of the century (see
Table 2.2) that might serve as analogues include the European
2003 heatwave (see Chapter 12, Section 12.6.1) and flooding
events related to intense summer precipitation in Bangladesh
(Mirza, 2003a) and Norway (Næss et al., 2005). Other extreme
events suggested as potential analogues, but about which the
likelihood of future changes is poorly known (Christensen et al.,
2007a), include El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related
events (Glantz, 2001; Heslop-Thomas et al., 2006) and intense
precipitation and flooding events in central Europe (Kundzewicz
et al., 2005). Note also that the suitability of such analogue
events should normally be considered along with information..."

There's more, but this section has the sentence fragment you took out of context so you could create the false impression that it supported your contention.

Of course, I'm assuming that you are the one who purposely extracted the sentence fragments to create the false illusion. It is possible that you merely copied this (repeatedly) from some blogger. But then, as Abraham Lincoln once said:

"I believe it is an established maxim in morals that he who makes an assertion without knowing whether it is true or false, is guilty of falsehood; and the accidental truth of the assertion, does not justify or excuse him."
Dan E. Mar 15, 2009, 2:26pm EDT
Gary, Thanks for the links,

"Personally, I rely on the science, and the data."

But you just can't seem to find any to post huh David?
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 2:27pm EDT
"Gary, If you read the disclaimers on the average medical procedure it would probably terrify you. However, that has little to do with the success of the average medical procedure nor does it have a significant impact on the truth of the IPPC report, either. My question to you is have you read the rest of teh report or only the disclaimers?"

Well you obviously haven't read any of it, James. Get busy. If you actually read the reports you will see that global warming and its consequences are probable estimates, not absolute fact as David would mislead you to believe. Re: medical disclaimers. Nice spin! However, when I had surgery there weren't any scary disclaimers that would suggested that the methods used are inconsistent and that the doctor's understanding or knowledge was poor. No such disclaimers appeared. However, the disclaimers on the IPCC report admit inconsistent methods used to make projections. This is significant! It goes to the heart of the matter! It implies that there is no real consensus among scientists when it comes to making projections! If two or more doctors insisted on operating on me and could not agree as to the procedure, I would not walk, but run from the ER! If those doctors admitted that their knowledge was poor, again, I would not walk but run from the ER! What would you do, James?

"A religion is not subject to change as it is an article of faith. I believed as you apparently do for many years, and was forced to change by a preponderance of evidence. "

Nice platitude, but I can't help but notice you did not provide a link to any evidence or even describe said evidence.

"Should the evidence change I can change my thinking tomorrow as it is not tied to any idealogical dogma. Can you say the same?"

Yes. Back in 1989 I gave up driving to save the planet. What have you done for the planet other than hold up a protest sign? Because many gloom-and-doom predictions made did not materialize by 2000 like they were supposed to, I became a skeptic. I think anyone who paid attention would.

"Like most non-accepters, you seem to feel that all the evidence with which you disagree is false."

Huh? What evidence are you refering to? Be specific.

"That is your prerogative to believe as your faith dictates. It will matter not a whit in the eventual end!"

LOL! So James, do you believe the sky will fall in the end. What is your doom-and-gloom scenario? Just curious.

"David, Sam and Steve B., have all published a wealth of information on this subject, reaching far beyond what I have time or inclination to duplicate. I hope that most people will read them with an open mind. The polar bears will be pleased to note that the ice is increasing rather than decreasing as they have been thinking! "

That's hilarious! Steve B. admitted his posts are worthless. (See David K's Skeptic's Conference thread.) David is a political hack. He rarely links to any evidence to support his outlandish assertions.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 2:32pm EDT
I think you got them all with that last comment.
Randy W. Mar 15, 2009, 2:33pm EDT
David, Ah, now I get it. If a scientist you agree with advances a theory that is tested by scientists you agree with then is it "settled". But, the scientists have to be "legitimate" (in your opinion) instead of "denialists.

I'm sorry, but I have finally caught on. Your are playing the same old ideology game, where the folks and the organizations you agree with are "legitimate" and once they declare a theory settled, it is "settled".

On the other hand, those who advance theories you don't agree with are not "legitimate" (nor are the organizations they belong to) and so you can denigrate them by name calling, like "denialists", and engage in a PR game to get a theory you favor accepted by the public.

Nice try. Close, but no cigar! To my knowledge, those who don't buy the theory of global warming have never claimed it is settled. They have claimed it is not settled.

Scientists from both sides of the issue have supported the need for additional data. However, a group of "legitimate" scientists has declared the matter settled because they claim it is settled and because they are "legitimate".

That leaves only one question. Who decides which scientists are "legitimate, and which are not?
Mark M. Mar 15, 2009, 2:36pm EDT
I don't see how anyone with a nose can be a global farming denialist. It smells something awful right now here in Lancaster County!

-Mark

P.S. "While the earth remains, Seedtime and harvest, And cold and heat, And summer and winter, And day and night Shall not cease."
Genesis 8:22

P.S.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 2:40pm EDT
"David, Ah, now I get it. If a scientist you agree with advances a theory that is tested by scientists you agree with then is it "settled". But, the scientists have to be "legitimate" (in your opinion) instead of "denialists."

Sorry Randy. Others already beat you to the punch and provided numerous examples of the bullet points in my article. But your exemplars illustrating my points are welcome as well.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 2:54pm EDT
"If a scientist you agree with advances a theory that is tested by scientists you agree with then is it "settled". But, the scientists have to be "legitimate" (in your opinion) instead of "denialists."

Randy, in all fairness, I should respond to your comment seriously. For example, let me take the piece I've copied above. I would rephrase this to more accurately reflect my opinion on this:

"If a scientist advances a theory that is tested by scientists then is it "science". But, the scientists have to be scientists (in the opinion of the scientific community and with the proper training) instead of bloggers."

How's that? The point is that all the relevant and valid scientific data are included in the current consensus and any new relevant and valid scientific data will be evaluated and included in future analyses. In fact, the new data suggest that the worst case scenarios actually underpredicted the timing of the effects, and that the rate of the impact has accelerated. We'll know more once all the new data are incorporated. So make sure to tell any of your skeptic friends that have real data to submit it to scientific peer review and incorporation into the analsysis.

The further point is that I find it rather difficult to rely on people who get their information from ideological and conspiracy blogs, and then purposely misrepresent any scientific sounding data they can get their hands on with the express purpose of obfuscating the science.

You tell me, Randy. Who would you rely on - the people who have been studying something for decades, or a blogger, or someone who willfully and repeated misrepresents the data? Your choice - the scientist, the ideologue, or the liar?
Dan E. Mar 15, 2009, 2:57pm EDT
Gee David,
I thought you were going to explain sometning to us....you know how Gary's cherry picking changed the meaning of what was presented in the report.

"Note also that the suitability of such analogue events should normally be considered along with information"

David,
your copy & paste seems to have gotten cut off;

Let's look at the rest of it.

"Note also that the suitability of such analogue events should normally be considered along with information on accompanying changes in mean climate, which may ease or
exacerbate vulnerability to extreme events.

It is clear that Gary did not take anything out of context.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 3:08pm EDT
David, I want to congratulate you for actually posting some evidence. So I will now address it:

"Evaluations of future climate change impacts, adaptation, and
vulnerability require assumptions, whether explicit or implicit,
about how future socio-economic and biophysical conditions will
develop. The literature on methods of characterising the future
has grown in tandem with the literature on CCIAV, but these
methods have not been defined consistently across different
research communities. Box 2.1 presents a consistent typology of
characterisations that expands on the definitions presented in the
TAR (Carter et al., 2001), for the purpose of clarifying the use of
this terminology in this chapter. Although they may overlap,
different types of characterisations of the future can be usefully
distinguished in terms of their plausibility and ascription of
likelihood, on the one hand, and the comprehensiveness of their
representation, on the other (see Box 2.1 for definitions). Since
the TAR, comprehensiveness has increased and ascriptions of
likelihood have become more common. The following sections
make use of the typology in Box 2.1 to address notable advances
in methods of characterising the future."

Boiled down to the small, what they are saying here is "we make assumptions, screwed up in the past (inconsistent methods) but we have made some improvements. So please don't lose faith in us, folks." I guess if you a cultist and have faith, the lack of past performance does not matter.




"Temporal and spatial analogues are applied in a range of
CCIAV studies. The most common of recently reported temporal
analogues are historical extreme weather events. These types of
event may recur more frequently under anthropogenic climate
change, requiring some form of adaptation measure. The
suitability of a given climate condition for use as an analogue
requires specialist judgement of its utility (i.e., how well it
represents the key weather variables affecting vulnerability) and
its meteorological plausibility (i.e., how well it replicates
anticipated future climate conditions). Examples of extreme
events judged likely or very likely by the end of the century (see
Table 2.2) that might serve as analogues include the European
2003 heatwave (see Chapter 12, Section 12.6.1) and flooding
events related to intense summer precipitation in Bangladesh
(Mirza, 2003a) and Norway (Næss et al., 2005). Other extreme
events suggested as potential analogues, but about which the
likelihood of future changes is poorly known (Christensen et al.,
2007a), include El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related
events (Glantz, 2001; Heslop-Thomas et al., 2006) and intense
precipitation and flooding events in central Europe (Kundzewicz
et al., 2005). Note also that the suitability of such analogue
events should normally be considered along with information..."

Yep, just as I asserted! You mislead people when you claim the science is settled. The proceeding excerpt shows that there are poorly known factors which could turn any climate model on its ear.

"Of course, I'm assuming that you are the one who purposely extracted the sentence fragments to create the false illusion. It is possible that you merely copied this (repeatedly) from some blogger. "

I note that you have a low opinion of bloggers, David, but then you are a blogger here on gather. Whoops!

"But then, as Abraham Lincoln once said:
"I believe it is an established maxim in morals that he who makes an assertion without knowing whether it is true or false, is guilty of falsehood; and the accidental truth of the assertion, does not justify or excuse him."

So you are at least willing to concede that my assertions could accidently be true? By the way, Lincoln also said, "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time. ..."

Hence I remain a skeptic.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 3:16pm EDT
"It is clear that Gary did not take anything out of context."

Why is that, Dan? The piece that got cut off was totally disconnected from what Gary offered as proof of his point. He did in fact take his sentence fragment completely out of context on purpose to make a false point. He lied.

But you're correct that the section I copied got cut off because it was the end of the column page. Since Gary's snippet was quite a bit above the end of the page and he didn't seem to think it supported his point, I simply didn't bother to copy the next column as well. But because you made a point of it, here is the entire section:

"2.4.4 Analogues
Temporal and spatial analogues are applied in a range of
CCIAV studies. The most common of recently reported temporal
analogues are historical extreme weather events. These types of
event may recur more frequently under anthropogenic climate
change, requiring some form of adaptation measure. The
suitability of a given climate condition for use as an analogue
requires specialist judgement of its utility (i.e., how well it
represents the key weather variables affecting vulnerability) and
its meteorological plausibility (i.e., how well it replicates
anticipated future climate conditions). Examples of extreme
events judged likely or very likely by the end of the century (see
Table 2.2) that might serve as analogues include the European
2003 heatwave (see Chapter 12, Section 12.6.1) and flooding
events related to intense summer precipitation in Bangladesh
(Mirza, 2003a) and Norway (Næss et al., 2005). Other extreme
events suggested as potential analogues, but about which the
likelihood of future changes is poorly known (Christensen et al.,
2007a), include El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related
events (Glantz, 2001; Heslop-Thomas et al., 2006) and intense
precipitation and flooding events in central Europe (Kundzewicz
et al., 2005). Note also that the suitability of such analogue
events should normally be considered along with information
on accompanying changes in mean climate, which may ease or
exacerbate vulnerability to extreme events.

Spatial analogues have also been applied in CCIAV analysis.
For example, model-simulated climates for 2071 to 2100 have
been analysed for selected European cities (Hallegatte et al.,
2007). Model grid boxes in Europe showing the closest match
between their present-day mean temperatures and seasonal
precipitation and those projected for the cities in the future were
identified as spatial analogues. These ‘displaced’cities were then
used as a heuristic device for analysing economic impacts and
adaptation needs under a changing climate.Arelated approach is
to seek projected climates (e.g., using climatemodel simulations)
that have no present-day climatic analogues on Earth (‘novel’
climates) or regions where present-day climates are no longer to
be found in the future (‘disappearing’climates: see Ohlemüller et
al., 2006; Williams et al., 2007). Results from such studies have
been linked to risks to ecological systems and biodiversity."

Note that the pieces you quoted in your comment don't change anything. Nothing in this passage is any kind of "disclaimer" as Gary puts it. In fact, by selectively quoting two disconnected sentences from this passage you are doing the same thing Gary did - you are creating the illusion that somehow the passage supports your ideological contention. It does not. In fact, neither sentence you quote means anything near what you say it means.

So, are you purposely misrepresenting the information, or just don't understand how science works?
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 3:22pm EDT
"I note that you have a low opinion of bloggers, David, but then you are a blogger here on gather. Whoops!"

I said that bloggers should not be relied upon for scientific data. I have a very high opinion of many bloggers. Usually the ones who don't intentionally misrpresent the facts.
Don(time to open them FEMA camps) S. Mar 15, 2009, 3:28pm EDT
Well how about that.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 3:28pm EDT
"I said that bloggers should not be relied upon for scientific data. I have a very high opinion of many bloggers. Usually the ones who don't intentionally misrpresent the facts."

Of course you never falsely claimed that the science of climate change is settled. LOL! I think you cultists need to read your own bible (IPCC reports). The reports you tout freely admit many unsettled matters. Get used to it!
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 3:31pm EDT
"Let's look at the rest of it.

"Note also that the suitability of such analogue events should normally be considered along with information on accompanying changes in mean climate, which may ease or
exacerbate vulnerability to extreme events.

It is clear that Gary did not take anything out of context. "

Thank you so much, Dan! David is such a LIAR! LOL!
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 3:33pm EDT
"Boiled down to the small, what they are saying here is "we make assumptions, screwed up in the past (inconsistent methods) but we have made some improvements. So please don't lose faith in us, folks." I guess if you a cultist and have faith, the lack of past performance does not matter."

Sorry Gary, that's not what it means at all. You "boiled it down" into your preconceived ideological view, just as you did when you dishonestly extracted the sentence fragment.

"Yep, just as I asserted! You mislead people when you claim the science is settled. The proceeding excerpt shows that there are poorly known factors which could turn any climate model on its ear."

And the second passage also says nothing of the sort. And again not only did you misunderstand (or purposely misrepresent) the full passage, but your continued misinterpretation of what it says doesn't change the fact that you intentionally extracted a sentence fragment and gave it your own spin so as to create a false conclusion.

"By the way, Lincoln also said, "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time. ..."

By the way, he didn't actually say that (did you get it from a blog?). This quote has been misattributed to Lincoln for many years but there is absolutely no record of him saying it. It's also been attributed to PT Barnum. Of course, anyone who knows Lincoln (or did a little research) would know that it is a false quote.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 3:34pm EDT
"Thank you so much, Dan!"

I guess you only read what you want to read.
Dan E. Mar 15, 2009, 3:39pm EDT
"Thank you so much, Dan!"

No problem David,
It's a pleasure to help Gary straighten you out.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 3:45pm EDT
"It is clear that Gary did not take anything out of context."
Why is that, Dan? The piece that got cut off was totally disconnected from what Gary offered as proof of his point. He did in fact take his sentence fragment completely out of context on purpose to make a false point. He lied."

Well David, your whole diatribe with regard to my alleged dishonesty is without merit, since I posted a link and cited the sections where the snippets appear. People CAN READ and make their own conclusions, so any alleged lies on my part would be moot. More importantly, your lies are moot also.

"But you're correct that the section I copied got cut off because it was the end of the column page."

Saved by the end of the column page! LOL!

"Since Gary's snippet was quite a bit above the end of the page and he didn't seem to think it supported his point, I simply didn't bother to copy the next column as well. But because you made a point of it, here is the entire section:"

Again, I congratulate you on posting an entire section.

"2.4.4 Analogues
Temporal and spatial analogues are applied in a range of
CCIAV studies. The most common of recently reported temporal
analogues are historical extreme weather events. These types of
event may recur more frequently under anthropogenic climate
change, requiring some form of adaptation measure. The
suitability of a given climate condition for use as an analogue
requires specialist judgement of its utility (i.e., how well it
represents the key weather variables affecting vulnerability) and
its meteorological plausibility (i.e., how well it replicates
anticipated future climate conditions). Examples of extreme
events judged likely or very likely by the end of the century (see
Table 2.2) that might serve as analogues include the European
2003 heatwave (see Chapter 12, Section 12.6.1) and flooding
events related to intense summer precipitation in Bangladesh
(Mirza, 2003a) and Norway (Næss et al., 2005). Other extreme
events suggested as potential analogues, but about which the
likelihood of future changes is poorly known (Christensen et al.,
2007a), include El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related
events (Glantz, 2001; Heslop-Thomas et al., 2006) and intense
precipitation and flooding events in central Europe (Kundzewicz
et al., 2005). Note also that the suitability of such analogue
events should normally be considered along with information
on accompanying changes in mean climate, which may ease or
exacerbate vulnerability to extreme events.

Spatial analogues have also been applied in CCIAV analysis.
For example, model-simulated climates for 2071 to 2100 have
been analysed for selected European cities (Hallegatte et al.,
2007). Model grid boxes in Europe showing the closest match
between their present-day mean temperatures and seasonal
precipitation and those projected for the cities in the future were
identified as spatial analogues. These ‘displaced’cities were then
used as a heuristic device for analysing economic impacts and
adaptation needs under a changing climate.Arelated approach is
to seek projected climates (e.g., using climatemodel simulations)
that have no present-day climatic analogues on Earth (‘novel’
climates) or regions where present-day climates are no longer to
be found in the future (‘disappearing’climates: see Ohlemüller et
al., 2006; Williams et al., 2007). Results from such studies have
been linked to risks to ecological systems and biodiversity."

"Note that the pieces you quoted in your comment don't change anything. Nothing in this passage is any kind of "disclaimer" as Gary puts it. In fact, by selectively quoting two disconnected sentences from this passage you are doing the same thing Gary did - you are creating the illusion that somehow the passage supports your ideological contention. It does not. In fact, neither sentence you quote means anything near what you say it means."

David, read my lips: the section you quoted states that there are factors that are poorly known. These guys who wrote the report are scientists, they can't bend the facts to your cult. They admit what is true. I give them kudos for that. They don't just blindly assert that the climate issue is settled science. There is no such thing as settled science--except in the dark ages. Science is progressive. It admits its shortcomings and mistakes.

"So, are you purposely misrepresenting the information, or just don't understand how science works? "

David, were you looking in the mirror when you wrote this? LOL!
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 3:54pm EDT
"Boiled down to the small, what they are saying here is "we make assumptions, screwed up in the past (inconsistent methods) but we have made some improvements. So please don't lose faith in us, folks." I guess if you a cultist and have faith, the lack of past performance does not matter."
Sorry Gary, that's not what it means at all. You "boiled it down" into your preconceived ideological view, just as you did when you dishonestly extracted the sentence fragment."

Tell us what you think it means, David. Just for laughs.

"Yep, just as I asserted! You mislead people when you claim the science is settled. The proceeding excerpt shows that there are poorly known factors which could turn any climate model on its ear."
And the second passage also says nothing of the sort. And again not only did you misunderstand (or purposely misrepresent) the full passage, but your continued misinterpretation of what it says doesn't change the fact that you intentionally extracted a sentence fragment and gave it your own spin so as to create a false conclusion."

Yeah, right! I purposely posted the links and section references so people can read for themselves and make their own conclusions. I'm such a conspirator! LOL!

"By the way, Lincoln also said, "You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time. ..."
By the way, he didn't actually say that (did you get it from a blog?). This quote has been misattributed to Lincoln for many years but there is absolutely no record of him saying it. It's also been attributed to PT Barnum. Of course, anyone who knows Lincoln (or did a little research) would know that it is a false quote."

Well I would compliment you on teaching me something new, but here again you have failed to back up your assertion with any evidence. And so what if I did get it from a blog? You said yourself some bloggers are good.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 3:59pm EDT
"Well David, your whole diatribe with regard to my alleged dishonesty is without merit, since I posted a link and cited the sections where the snippets appear."

You count on people not taking the time to go to the link and read a highly technical report. Most people won't because even if they did, they won't understand it (which you also count on). Which is why you feel confident extracting a sentence fragment and assigning your own meaning to it.

Even still, that doesn't absolve you from your intentional attempt to deceive.

"David, read my lips: the section you quoted states that there are factors that are poorly known."

Yes, I see that. And you then intentionally take that to mean what you want it to mean. All scientists document uncertainties and methods and findings so other scientists can repeat the analysis and see if it pans out. We're talking about future projections here. Of course "there are factors that are poorly known." That doesn't invalidate the consensus, it merely provides full information. Unfortunately, documentation of uncertainty is what the denialists and those who don't understand science use as an opening to create their own ideological conclusion.

"I give them kudos for that."

All legitimate scientists do this, Gary. It's called scientific ethics.

"There is no such thing as settled science...It admits its shortcomings and mistakes."

Of course, when the data tell them so. The data do not tell them so. As you've seen in one of my points above, denialists like to claim that the data are being overlooked or ignored. They are not and to say so is dishonest. All relevant and valid data have been incorporated to date and will continue to be incorporated as new data become available. That means any valid data your skeptic friends scientists have come up with and presented to other scientists have been incorporated or are in the process of being incorporated into the next round of analysis.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 4:03pm EDT
"And so what if I did get it from a blog? You said yourself some bloggers are good."

Do you intentionally try to look like you can't comprehend simple concepts? Is this something you and Dan think gives you leave to misrepresent? How is it possible that you could take something so inherently simple and twist it into your bizarre logic?

Bloggers are good for opinion, not scientific fact. Got it?

Here, reread this part:

"Such and such a source says..."

One common ploy is circular citation. The denialist industry creates a "press release" masquerading as scientific opinion. It then ensures that it circulates to its network of bloggers - some paid, others merely ideological lackeys - for distribution. Call it the "cut-and-paste" method of creating the impression that there is more uncertainty than there is, more disagreement than there is, and more authority than there is. Citing a blog that stole from another blog that stole from another blog that got it from the industry denialist machine is a combination of lazy and deceitful. The intent is to create an implied volume of information when it is in fact nothing more than creative plagiarism. Given that any person with a computer can publish anything they want without any kind of check on its factual integrity, no blog can be used for anything more than ascertaining the blogger's opinion, which by definition is tuned to their inherent biases. That's why you get the same sort of "conspiracy theory" stories showing up on "conspiracy theory" blogs. In short, citing a blog as a source of scientific fact is meaningless, not to mention that it and shows a lack of scientific understanding and/or a willingness to deceive.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 4:19pm EDT
"Well David, your whole diatribe with regard to my alleged dishonesty is without merit, since I posted a link and cited the sections where the snippets appear."
You count on people not taking the time to go to the link and read a highly technical report. Most people won't because even if they did, they won't understand it (which you also count on). Which is why you feel confident extracting a sentence fragment and assigning your own meaning to it."

My, you have a low opinion of the intelligence of your readers. For shame! And you are arrogant enough to think you know my thoughts and intentions when you are not a reputable psychic. I think even the most obtuse reader can make the inference at this point that you are guilty of every charge and insult you pile on to skeptics such as myself.


"David, read my lips: the section you quoted states that there are factors that are poorly known."

"Yes, I see that. And you then intentionally take that to mean what you want it to mean. All scientists document uncertainties and methods and findings so other scientists can repeat the analysis and see if it pans out. We're talking about future projections here. Of course "there are factors that are poorly known." That doesn't invalidate the consensus, it merely provides full information. Unfortunately, documentation of uncertainty is what the denialists and those who don't understand science use as an opening to create their own ideological conclusion. "

Well uncertainty is not the same as "the science is clear or settled." And what better excuse can a skeptic have but uncertainty. Just because the dice favor seven does not mean they have to come up seven.

"I give them kudos for that."
All legitimate scientists do this, Gary. It's called scientific ethics."

Then you're not a scientist. You're a cultist.

"There is no such thing as settled science...It admits its shortcomings and mistakes."
Of course, when the data tell them so. The data do not tell them so. As you've seen in one of my points above, denialists like to claim that the data are being overlooked or ignored. They are not and to say so is dishonest. All relevant and valid data have been incorporated to date and will continue to be incorporated as new data become available. That means any valid data your skeptic friends scientists have come up with and presented to other scientists have been incorporated or are "

So then we both agree that the science is not a settled matter.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 4:25pm EDT
David, you wrote:

"Bloggers are good for opinion, not scientific fact. Got it? "

OK, so your blog here is good for opinion, not scientific fact. Got it!
Dan E. Mar 15, 2009, 4:35pm EDT
How about a little science?

"Cosmic Ray Flux and Neutron monitors suggest we may not have hit solar minimum yet"

"Right now we are near the solar minimum, but neutron counts are still increasing. The current science says that if we had passed solar minimum, neutron counts should be decreasing.

Michael Roynane writes today:

The Bartol Research Institute of the University of Delaware manages five real-time neutron monitors, at widely dispersed locations, all of which indicate that over the last six months cosmic rays are increasing. This would not support the hypothesis that we are past solar minimum and suggests that solar minimum has not yet been reached."

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/03/15/cosmic-ray-flux-and-neutron-monitors-suggest-we-may-not-have-hit-solar-minimum-yet/

More cooling
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 4:42pm EDT
Dan,

How dare you post science to David's blog! LOL! He says blogs are only good for opinion, not scientific fact. Now go back and delete those scientific references. LOL!
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 4:43pm EDT
"The IPCC is ignoring the science"

Except that it isn't. The IPCC, and the thousands of researchers on whose studies the IPCC relies for its compilation of the state-of-the-science, examine every legitimate study that has been conducted regarding climate science. Any new valid data are also incorporated into the discussion, which is why the IPCC, for example, revises its reports every few years - they are incorporating newer data. Claims of "they are ignoring solar forcing" and others, for example, are patently false, and the denialists know this but continue with their charade.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 4:44pm EDT
"Such and such a source says..."

One common ploy is circular citation. The denialist industry creates a "press release" masquerading as scientific opinion. It then ensures that it circulates to its network of bloggers - some paid, others merely ideological lackeys - for distribution. Call it the "cut-and-paste" method of creating the impression that there is more uncertainty than there is, more disagreement than there is, and more authority than there is. Citing a blog that stole from another blog that stole from another blog that got it from the industry denialist machine is a combination of lazy and deceitful. The intent is to create an implied volume of information when it is in fact nothing more than creative plagiarism. Given that any person with a computer can publish anything they want without any kind of check on its factual integrity, no blog can be used for anything more than ascertaining the blogger's opinion, which by definition is tuned to their inherent biases. That's why you get the same sort of "conspiracy theory" stories showing up on "conspiracy theory" blogs. In short, citing a blog as a source of scientific fact is meaningless, not to mention that it and shows a lack of scientific understanding and/or a willingness to deceive.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 4:44pm EDT
I should add "Suggest that the scientists who study the science have missed all the important factors and don't really know anything about the science...at least not as well as a bunch of bloggers."

Also known as "create a straw man to shoot down" as a means of ridicule. The real intent, of course, is deflecting from the real science.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 4:45pm EDT
"Repetition"

Repetition ties all the previous deceit together into a continuous stream of "information" that by shear volume and tenacity is designed to create the illusion of authority. The same handful of "points" are repeated over and over again long after they have been discredited as false, illogical, or just plain silly. The same "experts" are trotted out even though it has been shown that their scientific credibility and integrity is equivocal (to be clear, some of these are legitimate scientists who legitimately disagree, but many are being used as shills by the denialist industry and others are mere charlatans selling snake oil for the industry money). The same "science is being ignored" line is repeated even after it has been shown that the science has already been incorporated into the consensus (even, in fact, after pointing to a specific set of pages in which this point is discussed). The repetition of falsehood is part of the ploy. And it is dishonest.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 4:46pm EDT
"Global warmists only demean the "skeptics" because they can't discredit the science"

This is a favorite tactic. As noted above, all real science is presented to the scientific community for peer-review and discussion. Most of the "science" of the skeptics has been shown time and time again to be spurious, incorrect, or irrelevant. Much of it is deliberately misleading, misrepresented, or outright fraudulent. Many scientists and others have spent considerable time evaluating the "cut-and-pasted from blog" science of denialists, and even after their contention is shown to be false and/or completely uninformed or illogical, they continue to repeat the same untruths.

As scientists, and as human beings, we must ask ourselves whether it is "unkind" to call a liar a liar. Should we ignore dishonesty by the denialists because to point out their dishonesty might hurt their feelings? But think about this. Would one not call a murderer a murderer because it would be "unkind" to the murderer? Is it not unkind to the victims to not stand up for their rights? Is it unkind to call Bernie Madoff a swindler, when he in fact is a swindler? What of the rights of his victims? Is it unkind to refute deception?

Should we not call a deceiver a deceiver?
Bill's Spirit Mar 15, 2009, 4:47pm EDT
Great article, David.

Let me offer some of my third-grade-blogger logic chains which support the notion that humans are capable of effecting (and have effected) some global climate change.

The Home Experiment.

Go outside on a hot summer day.

Put your hand on some grass and feel the temperature.

Then put your hand on some concrete, asphalt concrete and steel to check the temperatures there.

Then stand in the shade of a tree.

Then stand on some asphalt.

No think about the fact that the Earth used to be covered in nothing but grasses, shrubs and trees; and then think about how the billions of acres around the world have had trees and grasses removed and replaced with concrete, asphalt, steel and glass.

If you can experience the fact that asphalt, concrete, steel and glass generate significantly more heat under the sun than grass and trees do, then you might begin to see that human changes to the face of the globe CAN (and likely is/has) raise(d) the temperatures of our thin layer of atmosphere.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 5:02pm EDT
"If you can experience the fact that asphalt, concrete, steel and glass generate significantly more heat under the sun than grass and trees do, then you might begin to see that human changes to the face of the globe CAN (and likely is/has) raise(d) the temperatures of our thin layer of atmosphere."

Obviously it's a lot more complicated than that, Bill, but the idea that human activity impacts the world around us has been shown time and time again. Consider not just the temperature with respect to your example, but the reduction in plant cover relative to before industrialization. Less plants (which have a net intake of CO2) and more fossil fuel burning (which spews out more CO2), and the addition is pretty easy.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 5:03pm EDT
"This is a favorite tactic. As noted above, all real science is presented to the scientific community for peer-review and discussion. Most of the "science" of the skeptics has been shown time and time again to be spurious, incorrect, or irrelevant. Much of it is deliberately misleading, misrepresented, or outright fraudulent. Many scientists and others have spent considerable time evaluating the "cut-and-pasted from blog" science of denialists, and even after their contention is shown to be false and/or completely uninformed or illogical, they continue to repeat the same untruths."

David, I would love to see you do a line by line review of this skeptic report:

http://www.sepp.org/publications/NIPCC-Feb%2020.pdf

And please spare us the ad hominum attacks. Just give us the analysis. From what I have read, the link I provided had a lot of influence on the current IPCC reports. Fred Singer also shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore. And we all know what a legitamate scientist Al Gore is. LOL!
Felix R. Mar 15, 2009, 5:13pm EDT
Have these 'scientists' tried stepping away from their' computer monitors to contemplate the real world? Has any notice how cold it's been lately and for longer periods of time? Have you seen the snow this year or are you listening to 'scientist'?

"Looking back over my (Christopher Booker) columns of the past 12 months, one of their major themes was neatly encapsulated by two recent items from The Daily Telegraph.

The first, on May 21, headed "Climate change threat to Alpine ski resorts" , reported that the entire Alpine "winter sports industry" could soon "grind to a halt for lack of snow". The second, on December 19, headed "The Alps have best snow conditions in a generation" , reported that this winter's Alpine snowfalls "look set to beat all records by New Year's Day".

Easily one of the most important stories of 2008 has been all the evidence suggesting that this may be looked back on as the year when there was a turning point in the great worldwide panic over man-made global warming. Just when politicians in Europe and America have been adopting the most costly and damaging measures politicians have ever proposed, to combat this supposed menace, the tide has turned in three significant respects.

First, all over the world, temperatures have been dropping in a way wholly unpredicted by all those computer models which have been used as the main drivers of the scare. Last winter, as temperatures plummeted, many parts of the world had snowfalls on a scale not seen for decades. This winter, with the whole of Canada and half the US under snow, looks likely to be even worse. After several years flatlining, global temperatures have dropped sharply enough to cancel out much of their net rise in the 20th century.

Ever shriller and more frantic has become the insistence of the warmists, cheered on by their army of media groupies such as the BBC, that the last 10 years have been the "hottest in history" and that the North Pole would soon be ice-free – as the poles remain defiantly icebound and those polar bears fail to drown. All those hysterical predictions that we are seeing more droughts and hurricanes than ever before have infuriatingly failed to materialise.

Even the more cautious scientific acolytes of the official orthodoxy now admit that, thanks to "natural factors" such as ocean currents, temperatures have failed to rise as predicted (although they plaintively assure us that this cooling effect is merely "masking the underlying warming trend", and that the temperature rise will resume worse than ever by the middle of the next decade).

Secondly, 2008 was the year when any pretence that there was a "scientific consensus" in favour of man-made global warming collapsed. At long last, as in the Manhattan Declaration last March, hundreds of proper scientists, including many of the world's most eminent climate experts, have been rallying to pour scorn on that "consensus" which was only a politically engineered artefact, based on ever more blatantly manipulated data and computer models programmed to produce no more than convenient fictions.

Thirdly, as banks collapsed and the global economy plunged into its worst recession for decades, harsh reality at last began to break in on those self-deluding dreams which have for so long possessed almost every politician in the western world. As we saw in this month's Poznan conference, when 10,000 politicians, officials and "environmentalists" gathered to plan next year's "son of Kyoto" treaty in Copenhagen, panicking politicians are waking up to the fact that the world can no longer afford all those quixotic schemes for "combating climate change" with which they were so happy to indulge themselves in more comfortable times.

Suddenly it has become rather less appealing that we should divert trillions of dollars, pounds and euros into the fantasy that we could reduce emissions of carbon dioxide by 80 per cent. All those grandiose projects for "emissions trading", "carbon capture", building tens of thousands more useless wind turbines, switching vast areas of farmland from producing food to "biofuels", are being exposed as no more than enormously damaging and futile gestures, costing astronomic sums we no longer possess.

As 2009 dawns, it is time we in Britain faced up to the genuine crisis now fast approaching from the fact that – unless we get on very soon with building enough proper power stations to fill our looming "energy gap" - within a few years our lights will go out and what remains of our economy will judder to a halt. After years of infantile displacement activity, it is high time our politicians – along with those of the EU and President Obama's US – were brought back with a mighty jolt into contact with the real world. "

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/3982101/2008-was-the-year-man-made-global-warming-was-disproved.html

I don't know about global warming...I'm too busy watching the ticker tape on Wall Street to a more clear and present danger.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 5:17pm EDT
"Let me offer some of my third-grade-blogger logic chains which support the notion that humans are capable of effecting (and have effected) some global climate change."

This should be amusing.

"The Home Experiment. Go outside on a hot summer day. Put your hand on some grass and feel the temperature. Then put your hand on some concrete, asphalt concrete and steel to check the temperatures there. Then stand in the shade of a tree. Then stand on some asphalt."

OK, I've done all that and I agree the man-made stuff is hotter, but these items you mentioned are not the alleged main culprit in the climate change debate. It is carbon dioxide.

"No think about the fact that the Earth used to be covered in nothing but grasses, shrubs and trees;"

When was that? What about icebergs and deserts? Both natural, by the way.

"and then think about how the billions of acres around the world have had trees and grasses removed and replaced with concrete, asphalt, steel and glass."

OK, but why aren't these things being removed? Why is the focus on carbon dioxide?

"If you can experience the fact that asphalt, concrete, steel and glass generate significantly more heat under the sun than grass and trees do, then you might begin to see that human changes to the face of the globe CAN (and likely is/has) raise(d) the temperatures of our thin layer of atmosphere. "

Thanks. You have just demonstrated that carbon dioxide is not a factor. Here is an experiment you can try at home: Lock yourself in your bathroom with a thermometer. Exhale several times, fill the room with your carbon dioxide. Does the temperature rise or fall? I think you will find that the room temperature does not change in any perceptable way.
Carla G. Mar 15, 2009, 5:19pm EDT
A fantastic article, David, and so needed.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 5:35pm EDT
"Fred Singer also shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore."

Do tell. He does like to say that. Since the Nobel Prize was shared by Gore and the IPCC, what did Singer review? Just curious. Funny how you (well, he) can equate the two.

"David, I would love to see you do a line by line review of this skeptic report: http://www.sepp.org/publications/NIPCC-Feb%2020.pdf"

Actually, I've read the report. You might find this interesting as well:

Fred Singer

And this:

"Independent organization scientists refute global warming"

One of the favorite means for denialists to deceive the public is to create a "science sounding" organization and pass it off as independent. This despite the fact that all the funding comes from industry donors, ideological foundations, and "private citizens" (who oddly enough tend to be associated with industry donors and ideological foundations). The claim of independence is farcical, as these organizations are merely front groups for the industrial and ideological firms who fund them. Even the handful of scientists they employ are shared amongst the groups to create the illusion that there are more dissenters than are there in truth. More deceit.

I marvel at Fred's diversity...an expert on "tobacco isn't addictive and doesn't cause cancer" when tobacco companies were funding him, an expert on how oil isn't bad when the oil companies were funding him, and now an expert on climate change when the denialists are funding him (okay, technically, the oil industry is also funding the climate change denialist industry, so he actually hasn't strayed far).

Fascinating report though. Thanks for the memories and the chuckles.
Bill's Spirit Mar 15, 2009, 5:41pm EDT
David K. -- Yes, the big picture is certainly more complicated than my example; but that does not negate what I've presented. . If I had a PhD. in chemistry I could provide more intellectually astute examples, but I have provided one simple way to PROVE that human activities do cause temperature changes in the environment around us.

People should remember that industrialism continues to mow down millions of acres of trees every year; and continues to replace grassy spaces with more and more asphalt, concrete, steel and glass. We are still creating more HEAT GENERATORS.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 5:55pm EDT
"People should remember that industrialism continues to mow down millions of acres of trees every year; and continues to replace grassy spaces with more and more asphalt, concrete, steel and glass. We are still creating more HEAT GENERATORS. "

Evidence? Links? If you want to play, you need to back your assertions with evidence that we are creating more heat generators.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 5:59pm EDT
Actually, I've read the report. You might find this interesting as well:
Fred Singer And this:
"Independent organization scientists refute global warming"
One of the favorite means for denialists to deceive the public is to create a "science sounding" organization and pass it off as independent. This despite the fact that all the funding comes from industry donors, ideological foundations, and "private citizens" (who oddly enough tend to be associated with industry donors and ideological foundations). The claim of independence is farcical, as these organizations are merely front groups for the industrial and ideological firms who fund them. Even the handful of scientists they employ are shared amongst the groups to create the illusion that there are more dissenters than are there in truth. More deceit.
I marvel at Fred's diversity...an expert on "tobacco isn't addictive and doesn't cause cancer" when tobacco companies were funding him, an expert on how oil isn't bad when the oil companies were funding him, and now an expert on climate change when the denialists are funding him (okay, technically, the oil industry is also funding the climate change denialist industry, so he actually hasn't strayed far).
Fascinating report though. Thanks for the memories and the chuckles. "

David, unsubstantiated ad hominem attacks against Singer is not the same as a point-by-point rebuttal of his work. You may be right about the smoking issue. I have not examined his work there. But this debate isn't about smoking. You have no doubt been wrong about many things but that is not to say you can never be right. So try to focus, David. Give us your point-by-point rebuttal to the NGIPCC report.

One thing I find refreshing about this particular report is the voluminous data on climate change stretching back millions of years, as opposed to the very narrow data set used by IPCC stretching back only decades. If the IPCC was any more skimpy with the data, they would be claiming that winter turning to spring constitutes global warming without any regard to the long-term seasonal cycle.
Bill's Spirit Mar 15, 2009, 6:06pm EDT
Gary J. -- "..these items you mentioned are not the alleged main culprit in the climate change debate. It is carbon dioxide."

No, they are not the alleged main culprit. It is my assertion that these culprits (increased heat generation and lower cooling generation) are under valuated. However, the loss of plants that turn CO2 into O2 is a recognized part of the problem; and (if I am remembering my science classes) heat ADDS to the problem; as in helping more CO2 to be created.


"What about icebergs and deserts?"

I think you meant glaciers rather than icebergs.

Of course there were no forests or grass lands where glaciers and deserts exist; which makes it poignant to note that the number and sizes of the globe's glaciers have been receding. I suppose I should have spelled it out for you, but I was referring to the fact that where our modern cities, towns, farms, roads and industrial parks are located was ALL forest and grasslands just a mere 200 years ago; and the majority of those areas have only changed over the past 60 years.


"You have just demonstrated that carbon dioxide is not a factor."

Actually, I have done NO SUCH THING. What I did was let you in on a little something that no one wants to talk about or recognize as another major contributor to global climate change.


"Here is an experiment you can try at home: Lock yourself in your bathroom with a thermometer. Exhale several times, fill the room with your carbon dioxide. Does the temperature rise or fall? I think you will find that the room temperature does not change in any perceptable way."


I would guess that you have never actually done this yourself. The real life experiences of people who have been trapped in air tight environments shows that room temperatures do go up as the O2 is replaced with CO2.
Bill's Spirit Mar 15, 2009, 6:19pm EDT
Gary J. -- "Evidence? Links? If you want to play, you need to back your assertions with evidence that we are creating more heat generators."

Good for you to want to see evidence.

I don't know about where you live, but evidence is all around me here in Ohio. We have new industrial parks, new housing complexes and new roads going up every day; and those facilities are being built where trees, shrubs and grass had been growing unmolested. Usually, when any city or town on the globe expands, they do so by moving into spaces where only nature (tress and grass) had been having their way. I guess I have to acknowledge that things in California may be different.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 6:19pm EDT
"One thing I find refreshing about this particular report is the voluminous data on climate change stretching back millions of years, as opposed to the very narrow data set used by IPCC stretching back only decades. If the IPCC was any more skimpy with the data, they would be claiming that winter turning to spring constitutes global warming without any regard to the long-term seasonal cycle."

See:

"The IPCC is ignoring the science"

Except that it isn't. The IPCC, and the thousands of researchers on whose studies the IPCC relies for its compilation of the state-of-the-science, examine every legitimate study that has been conducted regarding climate science. Any new valid data are also incorporated into the discussion, which is why the IPCC, for example, revises its reports every few years - they are incorporating newer data. Claims of "they are ignoring solar forcing" and others, for example, are patently false, and the denialists know this but continue with their charade.

And:

I should add "Suggest that the scientists who study the science have missed all the important factors and don't really know anything about the science...at least not as well as a bunch of bloggers."

Also known as "create a straw man to shoot down" as a means of ridicule. The real intent, of course, is deflecting from the real science.
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 6:21pm EDT
"David, unsubstantiated ad hominem attacks against Singer is not the same as a point-by-point rebuttal of his work. You may be right about the smoking issue. I have not examined his work there. But this debate isn't about smoking. You have no doubt been wrong about many things but that is not to say you can never be right. So try to focus, David. Give us your point-by-point rebuttal to the NGIPCC report."

See:

"Global warmists only demean the "skeptics" because they can't discredit the science"

This is a favorite tactic. As noted above, all real science is presented to the scientific community for peer-review and discussion. Most of the "science" of the skeptics has been shown time and time again to be spurious, incorrect, or irrelevant. Much of it is deliberately misleading, misrepresented, or outright fraudulent. Many scientists and others have spent considerable time evaluating the "cut-and-pasted from blog" science of denialists, and even after their contention is shown to be false and/or completely uninformed or illogical, they continue to repeat the same untruths.

As scientists, and as human beings, we must ask ourselves whether it is "unkind" to call a liar a liar. Should we ignore dishonesty by the denialists because to point out their dishonesty might hurt their feelings? But think about this. Would one not call a murderer a murderer because it would be "unkind" to the murderer? Is it not unkind to the victims to not stand up for their rights? Is it unkind to call Bernie Madoff a swindler, when he in fact is a swindler? What of the rights of his victims? Is it unkind to refute deception?
David K. Mar 15, 2009, 6:22pm EDT
"Evidence? Links? If you want to play, you need to back your assertions with evidence that we are creating more heat generators."

Bill, perhaps you can quote from a blog for Gary. He really likes those.
Chris W. Mar 15, 2009, 6:32pm EDT
it would be amusing if it were not so sad. David continues to patiently use facts and logic, and Gary and Dan E persist in bombarding the thread using the same logical fallacies that David criticized so effectively in his original post. David is too classy to delete their posts, which fall flat on the floor due to their lack of merit.

I am left feeling both impressed and depressed at the same time. We must move beyond this, but we can't. it's a battle of wits, with one side totally disarmed.
Chris W. Mar 15, 2009, 6:36pm EDT
I get this same stuff on my posts. I get accused of being unwilling to argue specific points on climate warming. What are you afraid of Chris, engage me on Fred Singer, refute every one of his 527 points if you dare.... but I don't wish to play the deniers game. If I waste another hour of my life doing that, it will give the impression to visitors to the thread that there are two sides to the argument. But there are not two sides to the argument, you guys are firing blanks and have been for at least the past ten years. If I am asked to refute a silly idea about an approaching ice age, I just say, read the IPCC reports.
Josette K. Mar 15, 2009, 6:38pm EDT
David - Thank you for another Public Service post! I was naive - and I have been out of the country too much these days - but I didn't think anyone paid much attention to global warming denialists any longer ... I stand corrected by your message stream above (I guess throwing them out of office was not sufficient... ). I am aghast and more than a little discouraged to see the depth of obfuscation still at work in the U.S. (Special interests fiddling on while the planet burns?)

I am just wrapping up an extended trip through the southwestern quarter of Australia – yes, including the state of Victoria where the most devastating bush fires in the country’s history raged last month, and the extreme drought of the past several years is still on-going. Thought you may find interesting the attached story from IPS: http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=45802 (ENVIRONMENT-AUSTRALIA: Bushfires Highlight Global Warming Danger)
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 6:42pm EDT
Gary J. -- "..these items you mentioned are not the alleged main culprit in the climate change debate. It is carbon dioxide."No, they are not the alleged main culprit. It is my assertion that these culprits (increased heat generation and lower cooling generation) are under valuated. However, the loss of plants that turn CO2 into O2 is a recognized part of the problem; and (if I am remembering my science classes) heat ADDS to the problem; as in helping more CO2 to be created."

Assuming there is a problem. If we enter a new ice-age our alleged heat-generators will turn into an asset saving millions of lives from the devasting effects of an ice age.


"What about icebergs and deserts?"
I think you meant glaciers rather than icebergs. "

No, I meant icebergs but glaciers will work too.

"Of course there were no forests or grass lands where glaciers and deserts exist; which makes it poignant to note that the number and sizes of the globe's glaciers have been receding. I suppose I should have spelled it out for you, but I was referring to the fact that where our modern cities, towns, farms, roads and industrial parks are located was ALL forest and grasslands just a mere 200 years ago; and the majority of those areas have only changed over the past 60 years."

Of course there is no data set in past history where these man-made conditions were duplicated, where we can see any negative impact. All we have at this point is speculation. It has been speculated that more global warming will have devasting effects. Yet so far, so good. Global warming over the past 10,000 years has been a benefit not only to humans but life in general. So why then should we assume that more warming is dangerous?


"You have just demonstrated that carbon dioxide is not a factor."
Actually, I have done NO SUCH THING. What I did was let you in on a little something that no one wants to talk about or recognize as another major contributor to global climate change."

Well what you learned in your elementary science classes is no secret, but I thank you for your good intentions.

"Here is an experiment you can try at home: Lock yourself in your bathroom with a thermometer. Exhale several times, fill the room with your carbon dioxide. Does the temperature rise or fall? I think you will find that the room temperature does not change in any perceptable way."
I would guess that you have never actually done this yourself. The real life experiences of people who have been trapped in air tight environments shows that room temperatures do go up as the O2 is replaced with CO2. "

I have done the experiment and saw no rise in my thermometer, but feel free to post some links to what you have described. My mind is open to new information.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 6:46pm EDT
"I don't know about where you live, but evidence is all around me here in Ohio. We have new industrial parks, new housing complexes and new roads going up every day; and those facilities are being built where trees, shrubs and grass had been growing unmolested. Usually, when any city or town on the globe expands, they do so by moving into spaces where only nature (tress and grass) had been having their way. I guess I have to acknowledge that things in California may be different. "

In my hometown there are more trees today then when I was a kid. In fact it looks like a forest with houses interspersed. So that's why I don't lap any claims up like a dog.
Chris W. Mar 15, 2009, 6:51pm EDT
Gary, so your mind is open to new information? Oh please, get serious.l
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 6:54pm EDT
One thing I find refreshing about this particular report is the voluminous data on climate change stretching back millions of years, as opposed to the very narrow data set used by IPCC stretching back only decades. If the IPCC was any more skimpy with the data, they would be claiming that winter turning to spring constitutes global warming without any regard to the long-term seasonal cycle."

See:"The IPCC is ignoring the science"

If you say so. LOL!

"Except that it isn't. The IPCC, and the thousands of researchers on whose studies the IPCC relies for its compilation of the state-of-the-science, examine every legitimate study that has been conducted regarding climate science. Any new valid data are also incorporated into the discussion, which is why the IPCC, for example, revises its reports every few years - they are incorporating newer data. Claims of "they are ignoring solar forcing" and others, for example, are patently false, and the denialists know this but continue with their charade."

Well I know for a fact the IPCC is not ignoring solar forcing, but they may be downplaying it. Further, where in the IPCC reports does it do an in depth analysis of solar forcing and ice-age cycles? Maybe I missed something, but your lack of any references is your typical cultist tactic.

"And:I should add "Suggest that the scientists who study the science have missed all the important factors and don't really know anything about the science...at least not as well as a bunch of bloggers."

Who made this assertion? Is this one of your straw men?

"Also known as "create a straw man to shoot down" as a means of ridicule. The real intent, of course, is deflecting from the real science."

David, your whole comment is a straw man. I am still waiting for your point-by-point rebuttal of the NGIPCC report.
Joe T. Mar 15, 2009, 6:57pm EDT
Gary and the others who are so sure of the notion that man can't do anything about global warming,

Let me address your perusal of the fine print. To illustrate what I am about to say, I will tell you that there are disclaimers with anything of quality. No one has the definitive truth. Scientists only have their observations and evidence upon which to draw their conclusions. They are in a consensus due to the many experiments and data compiled over time. They are in consensus because that is where the evidence led. They are not political. I know several scientists and many are quite ignorant about the politics of their work. They are quite enamored with the work that they do, but they rarely commit to ideology. Frankly, they are too well informed for that sort of thing.

When I broke my ankle last July, I was sent to an orthopaedic surgeon. Because of the work of scientist in this area, they were able to install a metal bracket and nine screws which kept me from losing my entire foot and will forestall possible arthritis. I benefited from the science. My great uncle broke his ankle in a similar fashion over sixty years ago. He never walked with any modicum of normalcy again. Now, If I listen to those who prefer to deny science, I would also have to use a wooden foot for the rest of my life. But, because of where the science brought us, the broken ankle was a real inconvenience, but did not alter my lifestyle very much. The wonders of science work in our lives in more ways than you can imagine. When we choose to ignore science in favor of ideological beliefs, we are always choosing ignorance. I won't tell you how to think, Gary. But, I will tell you that it is folly to ask others to think according to political ideology in favor of science. Our lives have been greatly enhanced through the efforts of the many fine scientists of our day. We are simply lying when we try to sell our wrong headed notions based on nothing more than unproven ideology.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 6:58pm EDT
"it would be amusing if it were not so sad. David continues to patiently use facts and logic,"

ROFLMFAO! CHRIS! WHAT FACTS AND LOGIC? Give one example.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 7:02pm EDT
"I get accused of being unwilling to argue specific points on climate warming. What are you afraid of Chris, engage me on Fred Singer, refute every one of his 527 points if you dare.... but I don't wish to play the deniers game. If I waste another hour of my life doing that, it "

Translation: I got nothing, guys, so pass me another doobie.
Chris W. Mar 15, 2009, 7:14pm EDT
sad little man, enjoy your delusions. At a certain point dialogue becomes pointless.

what's a doobie, by the way?
Georgiana S. Mar 15, 2009, 7:23pm EDT
The proportion of people in denial in this world is daunting! They have denied everything from the Holocaust to wht coffee does to one's body, changes that one weekly! The facts are too hard for some peoples psyches to assimilate I suppose. Natural selection should have weeded them out and culled by now! LOL
Chris W. Mar 15, 2009, 7:24pm EDT
by the way David, your post has the most views today on Gather. Good for you, it is about something important and you have something important to say. Obviously, you would have done much better in terms of ratings by talking about American Idol or some weird sex crime, but I am glad that you have the character to be the voice in the wilderness. It's not always a fun job, but somebody needs to stand up for truth justice and the american way. I am not being sarcastic there, by the way. You deserve praise for what you tried to do here. The fact that fewer people are interested in this than need to be is on them, not on you.
Dan E. Mar 15, 2009, 7:24pm EDT
"The IPCC is ignoring the science"
Except that it isn't. The IPCC, and the thousands of researchers on whose studies the IPCC relies for its compilation of the state-of-the-science,"

David,
Your statment encouraged me to compile a post of the IPCC organization and how it really works.

The reality it is chapter 9 of the report from working group 1 that explicitly states the opinion that man is a key contributor to global warming.

Chapter 9 of the report from working group 1 had 53 authors and a few dozen reviewers, NOT thousands!

anywho to my post;

http://www.gather.com/viewArticle.jsp?memberId=92949&articleId=281474977625964&nav
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 7:32pm EDT
"Gary and the others who are so sure of the notion that man can't do anything about global warming,"

Well we can't stop natural warming or cooling, but I could be wrong so describe how we can stop an ice-age or interglacial period.

"Let me address your perusal of the fine print. To illustrate what I am about to say, I will tell you that there are disclaimers with anything of quality. No one has the definitive truth. "

I am glad you finally see the light and disagree with David's blanket statement that the science is settled on the matter of climate change.

"Scientists only have their observations and evidence upon which to draw their conclusions."

You mean they are not gods? Oh my, delete your comment before David and Chris see it.

"They are in a consensus due to the many experiments and data compiled over time."

Can you give some examples?

"They are in consensus because that is where the evidence led."

Exactly. The consensus is that man-made global warming and its effects are an uncertainty. (See the probability table on the IPCC Synthesis report.)

"They are not political."

Not in a perfect world, but then we don't live in a perfect world, so I think we can make the inference that some scientists are political. If you are right, then scientists like Singer are not political either.

"I know several scientists and many are quite ignorant about the politics of their work. "

They live in a cave? How can they not know about the politics of their work? By the way, thanks for admitting their work is political.

"They are quite enamored with the work that they do, but they rarely commit to ideology. Frankly, they are too well informed for that sort of thing."

So they would have no problem if their work is reviewed by peers who are skeptical? That would be nice, and scientific rather than political.

"When I broke my ankle last July, I was sent to an orthopaedic surgeon. Because of the work of scientist in this area, they were able to install a metal bracket and nine screws which kept me from losing my entire foot and will forestall possible arthritis."

(Cough) Joe, this has nothing to do with climate change, but I congratulate you on your recovery.

"I benefited from the science."

So we should have faith in science? OK, but what if scientists disagree? Like they do with the climate-change issue? How do we determine what the consensus truly is? Do we just read David's blog here or should we dig deeper?

"My great uncle broke his ankle in a similar fashion over sixty years ago. He never walked with any modicum of normalcy again. Now, If I listen to those who prefer to deny science, I would also have to use a wooden foot for the rest of my life."

OK, but what about scientists who deny the opinions of other scientists? Who is denying science? I for one love science. However, I know that scientists can disagree, and when they do that is cause for skepticism. Also when no gloom-and-doom predictions came true by the year 2000, like they were supposed to, that is also cause for skepticism.

"But, because of where the science brought us, the broken ankle was a real inconvenience, but did not alter my lifestyle very much. The wonders of science work in our lives in more ways than you can imagine. When we choose to ignore science in favor of ideological beliefs, we are always choosing ignorance."

Thanks for the update. But it is one big fat straw man! As I stated, I don't have a problem with science which is why I read the IPCC reports and the NGIPCC reports. I like to get a second opinion. You can do that with doctors too. It does not mean you are against science if you do.

"I won't tell you how to think, Gary. But, I will tell you that it is folly to ask others to think according to political ideology in favor of science."

ROFLMFAO! I had one year of physics, chemistry, biology, and three years of calculous, and two years of statistics and probability. I think we can safely deduce that my opinions are not based on ideology. Science is a culture of doubt, not unquestioning loyalty to any null hypothesis--including man-made warming.

"Our lives have been greatly enhanced through the efforts of the many fine scientists of our day. We are simply lying when we try to sell our wrong headed notions based on nothing more than unproven ideology."

I agree 100% and I am still waiting for the evidence that small changes in climate must necessarily cause a gloom-and-doom scenario.
Gary (aka: William Pinn) J. Mar 15, 2009, 7:35pm EDT