by
Bill's Spirit
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March 3, 2006 Monday Report; New Hampshire Predictions
January 07, 2008 03:42 PM EST
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Good - Monday - Everyone!! Tomorrow the New Hampshire Primaries will take place; and many eyes are turned toward the Granite State in wonderment over what might unfold. Whereas Hillary Clinton was expected to carry New Hampshire handily, many are now wondering if Barack Obama may sweep her completely off her feet; and I don't mean that in the giddy romantic fashion. Barack is looking like a mighty force of nature after his dominance in the Iowa Caucus. Apparently his campaign as the "one true candidate for change" is pulling masses of supporters from several demographics; not just the under thirty "new generation" crowd. Some folks are expecting a repeat of Iowa for the Democrats in New Hampshire; with Obama on top, Edwards in the middle and Clinton coming up third. It's hard to call if Edwards will beat Clinton. Hillary is expected to get a healthy share of the now candidateless Biden and Dodd supporters, but Edwards has been pulling up stronger in the media and may snag more of that sect than anticipated. Bill Richardson and Dennis Kucinich will likely grab a few votes. I'll be surprised if Mike Gravel gets more than one. On the Republican side: John McCain looks to win. Mitt Romney's popularity is reported as not being very strong in New Hampshire (neighbor state to where his governorship took place). His overall popularity seemed to slip right before the Iowa straw vote; and having won the Wyoming GOP caucus (Dick Cheney's home state) on January 5th doesn't seem to be helping him much in this run-up to New Hampshire's January 8th. Mitt took a badgering in the televised debates this past weekend. Several of his Republican brethren cat-called and harangued him again and again. Romney tried to hammer McCain up for supposedly wanting to grant amnesty to illegals, but Romney's argument all hinged on what your definition of amnesty is. Romney's nine-figure millionaire, ex-governor status paled in Iowa to Huckabee's Heartland Preacher persona. Now we shall watch and see how it fairs against McCain's POW, old-school conservative Republican stance. Maybe Mitt will pull a rabbit out of his hat, but I doubt it. Mike Huckabee is too unknown in the Granite State; and New Hampshire is not strongly filled with conservative evangelical Christians. Although he looks stylish playing the bass guitar, The Huck is likely to only gather a few New Hampshire votes. Fred Thompson has yet to inspire with anything beyond his TV persona. Despite the high hopes of many, Thompson remains lackluster and seemingly under-achieving. Rudy Giuliani seems to have done little for himself with the New Englanders. It's a wonder how much he could have done. The dark and displeasant side of Mr. Mayor's mayorship seems to be haunting him and doubtless haunts there as well. Ron Paul will collect the proper share of his ardently inspired followers. There may be even more than expected in the "Live Free or Die" state. McCain has been building his reputation up. He's talking a stronger game and disclosing some finer points of some of the policies he thinks need to be placed. McCain is a brand of the established old-school Republican. So, here's my predictions: Democrats -- Obama Clinton Edwards Richardson Republicans -- McCain Paul Romney Thompson We will find out tomorrow. Happy Monday Everyone !! -- 07 January 2008 -- Bill's Spirit is honored to have been selected as a member of Gather's "Election 2008 People's Press Corps" Bill's Spirit is an Artist, Writer, Poet, Philosopher currently wordsmithing from a humble digital forge in small town Ohio. The works of the man behind Bill's Spirit have been published in small alternative and amateur presses since 1986. Before that, they just filled notebooks, took up space on walls and gathered dust in piles and boxes. --
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Comments: 28
Biden as Dem VP ?
This is not a prediction.
I personally don't care what the man says I think he is muslim.
I've also noticed Ron Paul is big here, as is Huckabee lately. On the Dem side, Kucinich is very popular - and Richardson picked up 4 points since the debate.
Thanks for your reporting - and look forward to tomorrow!
Mccain doesn't have a lock on shit. If too many independents decide to go with Obama Mccain will lose NH without a doubt.
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Obama
Other
Kucinich
For the Republicans, I am surprised that you put Ron Paul so far up. He really does not have that much support, does he? For them, I think it will be
McCain
Romney
Huckabee
Paul
So, I'm out on a limb, I guess.
Its an interesting prediction. But you have a point. Plus, you never know with politics.
It will be interesting.
I hope the people of New Hampshire have more sense than to put Obama above Edwards and McCain above Paul but we will know soon.
**CNN last night Lou Dobbs said they polled the young voters supporting obama (which is how he is winning the recent caucuses) NOT ONE COULD SAY WHERE HE STOOD ON ANY ISSUE?? With the country at odds with so many foreign countries, it is horrifying to think of Barrack "Hussein" Obama (Muslim) running our country. You think we are in trouble with bush/Chaney!
OBAMA CHEATED in the Iowa Caucuses. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson placed fourth. But did they really earn their finishing positions? The answer may be surprising. In the last hours before the Iowa caucuses Obama, approached Joe Biden with this, proposal: In precincts where Biden had a local official loyal to him, and if Biden wasn't viable, then Senator Biden would tell his organizers to move his supporters over to Obama,in precincts where Obama had more than enough supporters, he would lend people to Biden to ensure Biden a fourth place finish so that he could continue. Biden told the Washington Post that the strategy could be "viability for victory except when the media found out, Obama's camp admitted that the conversation took place. Biden, who when asked about the proposal at a campaign event said that the deal could "probably" help both campaigns; he rejected the deal on "moral grounds," History recorded that Joe Biden placed fifth in Iowa, and subsequently dropped out of the race. On January 4, the day after the caucus, the New York Times reported Obama made the same deal to Bill Richardson only this time the deal was accepted. The Times article gives an eye-witness account and confession of an Obama official telling Richardson supporters that a pact had indeed been made. Deb Copeland, an Obama volunteer reported by the New York Times. "What we're concerned about hearing people going to Hillary. Volunteers for the Biden campaign told the Rev. Rob Times that Obama organizers used the same speech about a "pact" to lure supporters in at least two precincts. The Effect of backdoor wheeling and dealing between campaigns is that Richardson's fourth place finish and Obama's would not had a victory in a democratic system. Our democracy is based, in part, on the concept of "one man, one vote," and a vote by a secret ballot, free from the judging eyes of neighbors and the media, free from bribery, and free from the influence of political activists. Had the Iowa contest been based on a ballot, and had caucus voters cast a single vote for the candidate of their choice as is the most fair method of picking a president, then Obama may have come in third and Richardson in fifth. Obama's would have placed second to Clinton, and the dynamic of the race would have changed drastically. Edwards, Clinton, and even Biden all would have come out of Iowa in stronger positions. Those who took advantage and exploited it for their own purposes, namely Barack Obama and Bill Richardson, are not without culpability and their misdeeds should be remembered in the minds of voters.
That was my Congressman in Minnesota, who I didn't vote for, and his name is Keith Ellison, a man from New York who converted during his college years.
I don't know Carolyn. I think the fight between Clinton and Obama will be close, closer than the polls suggest. As for the Republicans, I agree. But I think that in the end it will come down to Romney and McCain. Even if Romney loses in NH, he will still have more delegates than McCain or Huckabee.