Last night there was yet another Presidential debate.
PBS sponsored a Republican Presidential Primary debate hosted by Tavis Smiley (Black Entertainment Television host and renowned African American journalist) at Morgan State University in Baltimore, Maryland.
It looked like the standard debate. There was a stage, hot lights podiums and an audience. But what wasn’t standard were the empty podiums. The top four candidates: Former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Former Senator Fred Thompson, Former Governor Mitt Romney and Senator John McCain all had other things to do. Other things to do than to explain to a community of voters why they should vote for you? Isn’t that what you need “to do” in order to get the votes to become the candidate? Shouldn’t “showing up at debates be on the top of your “To Do” list? Apparently not on theirs. Sure the Republican’s do not have as big of an African American base voting in their primaries – but it is still a community many believe they should address. This snub won’t gain points for the party nationally either – the Republican National Committee was none too happy with the broad message it sends to voters countrywide. To be clear – the Republicans aren’t the only ones skipping a debate or two. Last week at the PBS and AARP sponsored debate in the heart of Iowa, Senator Barrack Obama was missing. So the question becomes – in this age of weekly/bi-weekly debates, does it really matter? Will the Republicans absent last night loose the African American vote and will Senator Obama loose the senior vote? Probably not extensively but all the same last night’s no shows brought to light three interesting realities in politics. Theater, Strategy and (missed?) Opportunities.
Theater
I have to hand it to PBS’s staging last night. They left the podiums assigned to Giuliani, Thompson, Romney and McCain on the stage. Just empty…it illustrated something that the candidates that showed up were just as eager to point out – that the absentees simply didn’t care or value these African American voters enough! Former Governor of Arkansas Mike Huckabee was thrilled! He is considered at the top of the 2nd tier in the GOP Primary contest and given that the 1st tier was absent – he was #1 – he was the leader of the race last night. He took the opportunity to show command of the issues and able to get a few digs in to the 1st tier candidates that of course due to their absence couldn’t defend. The others took advantage too. Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas said “You know, you grow political parties by expanding your base, by reaching out to people and getting more people. What they’re doing is sending a message of narrowing the base.” What an opportunity handed to the 2nd and 3rd tiers by the frontrunners and for that I am sure the top tier will be getting mysterious gift baskets this weekend.
Strategy
The top four were missing but still in action last night – raising money. This Sunday at midnight is the close of the third quarter money primary. They have to show significant figures and Thompson has to get on the money radar screen. Also, the African American vote is not a large portion of the Republican primary voters. Taken those two things into consideration – for them the money won out. Whether or not this will hurt them remains to be seen.
(missed) Opportunity
Money or not – there are voters at stake. Sure, the African American vote may not be big in the Republican Primaries but it doesn’t have to be to be taken seriously by the Republican Party. Al Gore won over 85% of the African American vote in 2000 so it is very clear to see the power of African American voters for the Democrats in a general election. But you only have to look to Ohio in 2004 when 16% of the African American vote in that state went to President George Bush. That single state and those 16% basically got him re-elected. Although the African American vote accounts for 6-8% of overall Republican voters nationally – you have to take it as seriously as if they are 100% of your vote. It’s how you value all communities and sectors of voting populations that will especially factor into the General Election. The top tier may have to learn their missed opportunity lesson the hard way – if one of them becomes the nominee will 16% of the African Americans still vote Republican in Ohio?
So what do you think Gather?
Should the top tier Republican primary candidates have participated last night?
Looking forward to hearing your thoughts!
Laura Schwartz
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Comments: 35
Your alot closer to this than I am, but it seems like there has been alot of debates this early in the campaign. I think with the 24/7 media we're in their message will get to the people any way. We've still got a whole year of this. Have a great weekend!
Opportunity lost - absolutely. It was an opportunity to show a segment of the population that the Republicans care about all Americans, not just the "right" ones (i.e., those likely to vote Republican).
As for the number of debates, it must be difficult to have to participate in so many (especially since most of the candidates are supposed to have real jobs). They may have agreed earlier to only do "official" sanctioned debates, but they should have made this decision clear a long time ago rather than appearing to diss any one particular interest group now. In any case, the non-top tier candidates want as many debates as possible, since that is how they get the majority of their (cash-strapped) air time.
Best option - focused debates on one topic per debate so they could really get into it. May be too late for that now though.
Thanks again.
Thanks, as always, for coming back and commenting – your insight is always appreciated!
You're remark on the validation that republicans are willing to cede the African American vote is very interesting. At first look you cannot help but wonder why they would be willing to cede such a thing. As I mentioned – overall the majority of African American votes do traditionally go to Democrats and the African American vote like that of the Hispanic vote are growing in each election as in eligibility and turn out. But our elections are less about "major majorities" as they are micro-strategies to get enough to win that states electoral votes. I mean just by looking at those Ohio statistics we see that you just need enough to put you over the top versus needing it all. Some would say that argues the point that the debate did not heed necessary attendance. But I'm of the school where you listen to all because of the issues – not just to those you think you need strategically to win.
Thanks Ron!
There have been many debates and early in this season – but then again the whole season has been early for the 2008 Presidential Cycle. MSNBC held a democratic debate last week and it was the 2nd lowest rated Presidential democratic debate of the season! In one way I find that incredibly surprising – all last spring and all this summer we have been told –oh, it's too early to be talking so much politics – that no one will pay attention until after Labor Day. Well, here we are after Labor Day and according to those debate numbers from MSNBC last week…no one is overwhelmingly paying attention! The other way to look at it is that last week was premiere week on the networks premiering exciting new shows and airing part two to the last season's cliffhangers.
Perhaps if the debates become more like American Idol or Dancing with the Stars we'll watch. I mean the concept is already there – we all get a chance to vote them off next year!
Thanks so much David – I appreciate you coming back with your thoughtful comments!
I do believe there have been so many with so little accomplished and like you said – limiting them to one topic for an hour would certainly get more accomplished than the run of the mill hodge podge of questions that doesn't allow candidates to either distinguish themselves from one another or answer questions….But I also believe that this debate would have been a great way to focus in on the issues facing the African American community today. After the devastating let down of eth Bush Administration's reaction to Hurricane Katrina and the video footage we saw coming from not another ravaged country but our own – this is a community that the Republican Party needs to reach out to and not retreat from. The goal doesn't have to be to get this communities vote – the goal should be addressing this community – just like every other community in the country. Hispanic, middle class, seniors, working poor, women – there are issues that are particularly important to them and that our next president will be responsible for. It's the everyday reality I talk about. Don't give me political rhetoric – just tell me how your plans will affect my everyday reality!
Thanks so much!
Sadly, I think Democrats show signs of catching this illness. Someday, the voting may be decided simply on who has the most money collected. Reminds me of those jars in the grocery stores to vote for the Rodeo Queen by dropping in a few quarters.
Question of the Day: Should the winner of a popularity contest among rich people really be the one to run our country?
I haven't decided on a candidate and won't until closer to the primary, even though in my state I'm not allowed to vote in the primary without lying to do so, so I won't be voting then.
As much as I dislike Mr. Bush's policies and such it strikes me as odd that this is the one place he chooses to be honest.
Yes, they should have been there, and they should skip the MSNBC debate, over the Matthews "moderator" issue.
With that said it is quite clear they are only interested in the affluent. Want proof? Just look how quick the response was in Malibu, CA. There are hardly any poor people affected by this disaster yet the response was a lot different than for the folks in New Orleans, wasn't it?
We are being led by the greedy, silver spoon fed crowd.
We are in real danger of losing our country as we know it. Being a child of the 60's and 70's while the Vietnam fiasco was happening. I cannot believe the current state of affairs was what all the protests achieved. What happened to the great America? Greed, Corruption and career politicians that's the real problem. Throw them all out not a one is truly salvageable.
Perhaps, but I doubt it. The Republican controlled election commissions in Ohio destroyed all 2004 ballots against standing court orders in what? 58 of 86 counties? I seriously doubt Bush got re-elected, legally, in Ohio, at all. Period. Blackwell, his dirty tricks, and this little factoid, plus some convictions, already, would seem to at least cast as much doubt over Ohio in 2004 as Florida, in 2000. He may be the only two term president that was never actually elected.