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Shaheen 2 launch |
Pakistan is preparing its next-generation of nuclear-capable ballistic missile for deployment. A satellite image taken on June 5, 2005, shows what appears to be 15 Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) for the medium-range Shaheen 2 fitting out at the National Defense Complex near Fatehjang approximately 30 kilometers southwest of Islamabad.
The vehicles were discovered as part of preparations for the latest Nuclear Notebook on Pakistani nuclear forces published in the May/June issue of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. The Notebook is written by Hans M. Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists and Robert S. Norris of the Natural Resources Defense Council.
The authors estimate that Pakistan currently has an arsenal of about 60 nuclear weapons. In the last five and a half years, Pakistan has deployed two new nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, entered the final development stages of a potentially nuclear-capable cruise missile, started construction of a new plutonium production reactor, and is close to completing a second chemical separation facility. As Pakistan completes development of two more nuclear-cable ballistic missiles and a cruise missile in the next few years, the nuclear arsenal will increase further.
The main driver for Pakistan's nuclear modernization appears to be India's nuclear build-up, although national prestige probably also is a factor. The two countries appear to be entering a new phase in their regional nuclear arms race with medium-range ballistic missiles gradually replacing aircraft as the backbone of their nuclear strike forces. In contrast to aircraft, ballistic missiles have a very short flight time and cannot be recalled once launched.
National Defense Complex Activities
The National Defense Complex (NDC) was established in 1993 and has since expanded into a center for the development of Pakistan's missile force. The main facilities are spread over a 6x2 km (4x1 mile) area on a ridge, and include what appear to be administrative buildings, missile assembly halls and garages. At two locations, several large six-axle vehicles are clearly visible on the satellite image, as are several smaller four-axle vehicles.
Approximately 1.5 km (0.9 miles) northwest from the main building is a cluster of what appears to be five recently constructed garages. Parked in front or partially inside the two largest garages to the west are 11 vehicles that clearly show the characteristic six-axle design of the Shaheen 2 TEL, indicating that the launcher itself has not yet been installed (see figure 1).
Figure 1: Shaheen 2 TELs Awaiting Assembly |
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| These 11 trucks at the northern part of the National Defense Complex may be Shaheen 2 Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) awaiting installment of missile launcher. |
The second facility is located just south of the main building and includes what may be four large assembly halls where the missile launchers are installed on the vehicles. One six-axle vehicle (as well as one outside the frame of the image show here) appears to be about to enter the hall. Outside the other end of the building are what appear to be two Shaheen 2 TELs that have completed installment of their missile launcher, thereby obscuring the axles of the vehicles. Two four-axle vehicles are also visible, which may be Shaheen 1 TELs awaiting assembly.
Figure 2: Shaheen 2 TELs Undergoing Assembly |
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| This part of the satellite image appears to show Shaheen 2 Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) in the process of having their missile launchers installed. Possible Shaheen 1 TELs are also visible. |
It is important to stress that the satellite image is not of high enough resolution to make it possible to identify with certainty the vehicles and the buildings. But the image is good enough to determine that the large vehicles strongly resemble the six-axle Shaheen 2 TELs photographed at Pakistan Day parades. Each six-wheel vehicle is 16-17 meters long with a drivers compartment that covers the front axle (see figure 3).
Figure 3: Shaheen 2 Launcher |
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| The blurry six-axle vehicles (bottom) detected at the National Defense Complex strongly resemble the frame of the Shaheen 2 Transporter Erector Launcher (top). The front axle is not visible in the satellite image because it is covered by the drivers compartment. |
Shaping the Future
Although the Shaheen 2 launchers appear to be fitting out at the National Defense Complex, the missile they are intended to carry is not yet through to be fully operational. Three test-launches of the 2,000+ km missile have been conducted since 2004, the most recent in May 2006, and a couple more are probably needed before the missile can be deployed.
Once Shaheen 2 does become operational, it will give Pakistan the ability to target facilities across most if not all of India and hold all of India's major cities at risk. As such Shaheen 2 will be Pakistan's response to India's long-awaited deployment of the Agni II missile. The race is on.
Republished from the Strategic Security blog at http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp, a project of the Federation of American Scientists. Discuss the social, security and political implications of science and technology at the Science Policy group on Gather, at FAS.gather.com
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China Test-Launches New Ballistic Missile
China has test launched a DF-31 long-range ballistic missile, according to a report by the Russian news agency ITAR-TASS. The missile was said to have been launched from the Wuzhai launch site on Monday night.
The DF-31 has been under development since the 1980s and Monday's flight test appears to be the sixth flight test of the missile since 1999. The U.S. Department of Defense predicted in 2002 that the DF-31 would be deployed "before mid-decade," but that didn't happen. The current DOD prediction is that deployment may happen this year. Some web sites erroneously say the missile is already operational.
The DF-31 forms the core of China's current modernization of long-range nuclear ballistic missiles. Two modifications of the DF-31 are under development. The road-mobile DF-31A has a longer range (possibly up to 12,000 km), and the 8,000+ km range Julang-2 is intended to arm China's next generation of ballistic missile submarines (Jin-class).
There is considerable confusion and uncertainty about the capability of the DF-31. Early reports predicted a range of at least 8,000 km (4,875 miles), but the latest DOD estimate is 7,250+ km (4,500+ miles). China has not yet tested the DF-31 to the full range reported by the DOD. Tuesday's test launch impacted in the Takla Makan Desert some 2,500 km west of Wuzhai. If the range is 7,250+, the DF-31 will not be able to target the entire continental United States, only the most northwestern parts. Its main role may be against Russia, India, as well as U.S. facilities in the Pacific including Hawaii and Guam.
Another confusion concerns the payload. Despite widespread speculation among private analysts and media that the new missiles will carry multiple warheads, the U.S. intelligence community anticipates that all three missile types will carry a single warhead each.
Later this month (September), FAS and the Natural Resources Defense Council will publish a joint report about Chinese nuclear forces and U.S. nuclear targeting of China. The report uses high-resolution satellite images and declassified documents to describe the nuclear relationship between China and the United States.
See also: Elusive Chinese Submarine Cave Spotted | Nuclear Notebook on Chinese Nuclear Forces