Snowfall Predictions for This Winter

One of our local TV Meteorologists always makes a prediction for total snowfall amount in our area for the upcoming winter. His goal is to hit the snowfall total of the season within 2.5 inches. Last year he did not do so well. He had called for a total of 53.1 inches, but we ended up with much less, only 34.8 inches. This year he is again predicting above average snow fall amounts. He thinks we will end up at a total of 57.3 inches.; the average snowfall total for the season is right around 40 inches. He predicts most our snow will fall in December, and again in February, with November and January being fairly dry.

He also predicts "cut-off" low pressure systems which played into our weather in September, will affect us again this winter. Cut off lows are storm systems that stay out of the main jet stream, which might normally steer them away from our area, and they usually last several days. So if we can get past December without much snow his prediction will be a bust!

He's going against the grain of some other meteorologists who are calling for less snow and warmer temps. With El Nino playing a factor this year I'm hoping they are right and he is wrong. Normally the El Nino will bring us warmer winters. Ocean temperatures (warmer= El Nino, cooler= La Nina) affect the jet stream, which affects the weather. We've had 18 El Nino patterns since 1951 and about 75 percent of the time it has brought us above average temperatures. The odds are on my side!

C):-)

Comments: 25

Ruthi C. Nov 7, 2009, 11:49am EST

I'll be hopin' for you that he's wrong too!

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Johnice R. Nov 7, 2009, 12:06pm EST

I heard there were not any El Ninos forming off the coast of S. America this season. That was a while ago so things must have updated by now. I try not to register predictions and take each day as it comes. I live in the City I guess that makes the difference. I am inspired by winter weather, that is just me!

Dan (Cowboy Up) V. Nov 8, 2009, 2:04pm EST

The El Nino apparently started back in July according to NOAA's web site, and is expected to continue through the winter. I've lived in this area all my life, and I know from experience winters now days are wimps compared to what we used to have. lol For instance for the 1968-69 snowfall season we had almost 95 inches!

Johnice R. Nov 8, 2009, 2:30pm EST

That is impressive and as for El Nino, I may have confused it with El Nina? !!

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Denise B. Nov 7, 2009, 1:14pm EST

hope he is wrong too - you know I should have been a weather person - where else can you be WRONG 95% of the time and still have a job (except when you work for the government - LOL)

Dan (Cowboy Up) V. Nov 8, 2009, 1:44pm EST

LOL The weather guys are taking a beating in this post!

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**AngelEyez** a. Nov 7, 2009, 1:17pm EST

gosh I hope he is wrong!

Dan (Cowboy Up) V. Nov 8, 2009, 1:45pm EST

Me too!

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Verie Sandborg Nov 7, 2009, 4:47pm EST

In the Chicago area, the past two winters have seen above-average snow for the season. While I don't mind hiking in snowy weather, I hate driving in it. I'm ready for a mild winter.

Dave Sandborg Nov 7, 2009, 6:59pm EST

I don't know the last time we've had a winter I'd really think of as "snowy" here. Certainly since Janna got here from Buffalo she complains about missing the snow. Of course there's no way to live up to that standard, but does seem like most of our winter precipitation for the past few years has been in the form of rain.

Dan (Cowboy Up) V. Nov 8, 2009, 1:43pm EST

I wouldn't mind a mild winter myself. I know my nephew is praying for lots of snow..he's big into winter sports!

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Janet "Jax" B. Nov 7, 2009, 6:29pm EST

And you know, I'm in the wrong business. It must be nice getting paid so much for being wrong so much of the time.

Dan (Cowboy Up) V. Nov 8, 2009, 1:42pm EST

That's true, Jax!

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Jan S. Nov 7, 2009, 9:27pm EST

Last winter brought record-breaking snowfall in Michigan. The only good part about it is that the lake water level is always higher after a heavy snow winter. Sadly, summer was too chilly to really enjoy the high water.

Jan S. Nov 7, 2009, 10:19pm EST

Thanks for posting to Absolutely Everything Winter

Dan (Cowboy Up) V. Nov 8, 2009, 1:41pm EST

Snowmelt is so important to the lakes & streams, not to mention drinking water supply in many areas! Our summer was much like yours unfortunately too .

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Risa G. Nov 7, 2009, 11:10pm EST

I never believe weather men at all. I Like to be surprised as to what will happen. Everytime they say it is going to rain, I bring my umbrella and then it doesn't rain. They say it will be 60 degrees and then I am freezing the next day. This morning they said it would be warm today and it was in the low 50's. It was chilly. Tomorrow is supposed to be just beautiful. We'll see...

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Natalie Neal Whitefield Nov 8, 2009, 11:50am EST

True. El Nino does impact the flow of the jet stream. But one other factor comes into play. The six (6) volcanic eruptions on Kamchatka Peninsula late this summer have spewed tremendous amounts of Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) gas into the upper atmosphere, which tends to remain there and circulate in the northern latitudes for extended periods of time, and which often alters the jet stream, can also contribute to an overall cooling effect. It remains to be seen what the actual impact will be. In the meantime, we here in the Northern Rockies are experiencing a glorious Autumn. Sunny. Cool. Crisp. Plenty of snow already on the mountaintops, but no real accumulation below about 7,000 feet. We're at mile high and can look up at the glorious snow-covered mountains, while enjoying the sunny fall weather here below. Personally, I wouldn't mind having an 'open' winter this year. I like looking up at the snow, but don't much enjoy shoveling it, or driving in it now that I'm not getting any younger!

Dan (Cowboy Up) V. Nov 8, 2009, 1:39pm EST

I agree Natalie, it's much more fun veiwing snow's beauty than it is experiencing it's weight in the business end of a shovel! lol Sounds like your weather is similar to ours right now. Feels like an Indian Summer.