Oaxaca: It's Always Politics . . .

Before I departed for Oaxaca I was told, point blank, by several people that I was endangering my life by coming here. I have no doubt that had I wandered into Oaxaca three weeks ago I would have been. But now? Doubtful. (Personally I think one of them had a personal agenda for making sure I didn’t go, but that’s life, I suppose.)

Sure, the Federales have occupied Oaxaca “just like Baghdad” as one local told me, “they take only the city, but the countryside is still ours.” As I mentioned on the radio yesterday the vast majority of illegal immigrants that enter the United States are poor campesinos from Oaxaca so tomorrow I will see the countryside, a village called Teotitlan, for myself. After that I’ll visit the ancient Zapotec capitol just outside of town called Monte Alban. It’ll be nice to get away from the ubiquitous gray uniforms the Federales wear.

Even though one of the more prominent APPO leaders was arrested Monday night the political situation in Oaxaca is still tense. Violent, no. Tense, yes.

“Will the current, albeit enforced, stability remain or will the violence flare up again,” is a question I have asked many people since my arrival. The answers seem to fall in two broad categories. Those who are poor, don’t own businesses, are students or have ties to the villages in the Valles Centrales say “no.” It’s a fake stability, they’ve told me. They are still angry, scared and tired of the constant one-way application of the law, and fed up with being ordered around. In fact, that’s the inside joke here when politicians says, “we want law and order.” When the law applies to anyone around here it is to the poor or defenseless, and it is also the poor and defenseless who are ordered (and frequently forced) to obey. Of course, the basis of their law, the Code Napoleon is a major contributor to the unrest. You see here you are guilty until proven innocent—unlike in America where you are accorded the presumption of innocence until found guilty. One local told me today that up to 50% of those in prison in Oaxaca alone are innocent and their jailors will tell you so. But still, nothing is done.

The other reply to my question comes from the many business owners I’ve spoken too. Almost all of them have told me some formulation of the follwing: yes, the stability will remain because the Federales are here to protect the tourists. (I too had a hard time concealing a grin of disbelief when told this, but hey, I’m just the messenger.) What they meant to say was that they are here to protect their interests, right?

I will, however, say this, as I mentioned yesterday: I haven’t felt unsafe once and I have pretty receptive antennae.

Make no mistake about it the Federales are here in force. I’ve counted at least 500 so far just in the city center. In early November they retook the Zocalo, that picturesque center of colonial Oaxaca filled with jewelry stores and coffee shops. Many of the jewelry stores are shattered glass and boards now. The Federales have also pitched tents in the Alameda de Leon, adjacent the Zocalo, and are headquartered in what once was Hotel Marqués del Valle, the center of the Oaxaqueño hospitality industry with rooms looking right out on the old town square. Some smashed windows are still visible downstairs and some places remain in town where the graffiti hasn’t yet been painted over. While wandering around today I saw a few anarchist symbols, one bit of graffiti calling someone or another a traitor and a rat plus the occasional red swastika here and there. As I see it, this is what happens when the wealthy of a country apply the laws selectively and squeeze the middle class and poor dry. Even conservatives in America agree—but that’s just because they oppose immigration, not out of altruism. They’ll nod their heads and say, ‘sure a little wealth redistribution is a good idea. They need more public services in Mexico.’ Oh, the irony.

I don’t know what will happen in the future. How long are Governor Ruiz and President Calderon willing to pay for the very real and expensive deployment of the Federales here in Oaxaca is anyone’s guess. To me the real danger is boredome on the part of the individual soldiers. Already I’ve seen many of them lounging in the shade, playing the pitiful videogames on their mobile phones, chasing after the local girls. My friend is right. They are like an occupying army. And when occupying armies get bored?

Calderon clearly has a chance to unify Mexico (he'll blow it, if you ask me). The country desperately wants him to lead all Mexicans, not just those of his class. But I fear his appointment of the hardline former Jalisco Governor Acuña to Interior Minister is a bad sign. Acuña’s brand of law and order is beat the protestors first and negotiate with the business leaders in town afterwards.

For the time being, however, the hotel prices can’t be beat. I’m paying $25 a night for a location that can’t be beat. A carpet seller offered me a carpet today (and it was a beauty, I tell you) for $400. The carpet was huge. If you like your tourism a bit on edge, with few fellow tourists around to ruin the peace and quiet, well, Oaxaca is for you. But I can’t guarantee it’ll stay this way for long. It works for me. More locals than tourists is always a plus.

Tomorrow I'm off to Teotitlan and Monte Alban and Friday is a long travel day so I may not post until Saturday. But there'll be more.