Clinton has huge lead in KY polls

Results below from survey usa

In Kentucky, Clinton 36 Lengths In Front of Sputtering Obama: In a Democratic Primary in

Kentucky today, 04/15/08, five weeks to the vote, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 62% to 26%,

according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WHAS-TV Louisville and WCPO-TV Cincinnati.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released two weeks ago, Obama has lost ground

among men and women, young and old, conservatives and moderates.

In Western KY, Clinton had led by 30, now leads by 43. In Eastern KY, Clinton had led by 52,

now leads by 63. in North Central KY, Clinton had led by 30, now leads by 39.

In greater Louisville, Clinton had led by 12, now leads by 16.

Comments: 5

Patti W. Apr 17, 2008, 10:31pm EDT

Another tidbit of interest is the fact that Puerto Rico is very in favor of Hillary Clinton.This small part of an article comes from usnews and is by Michael Barone
Puerto Rico has 63 delegates to the Democratic convention.But one group of 63 delegates is more equal than another. Democratic delegates are supposed to be allocated by proportional representation. But that notion is alien to highly competitive Puerto Rican politics. In practice, the dominant figure in Puerto Rico identifying with the Democratic Party has seen to it that his faction gets all the territory's delegates. This was true of Govs. Carlos Romero Barcelo and Pedro Rosello of the New Progressive Party (PNP) as well as Gov. Rafael Hernandez Colon of the Popular Democratic Party (PPD). PPD politicians almost always identify with mainland Democrats (an exception was Sila Calderón, governor from 2000 to 2004, who identified with neither party and concentrated, successfully, on persuading Congress and the Bush administration to close the artillery range on Vieques Island). It's not clear to me at this distance whether the current governor, Aníbal Acevedo of the PPD, will have similar clout. He's at odds with Rosello, and the legislature is in the hands of the PNP. But if Acevedo doesn't determine who gets Puerto Rico's 63 votes, someone else will. And they aren't likely to be proportionately distributed.

This means that Puerto Rico is likely to have more leverage in Democratic National Convention votes than any single state, no matter how large. Its leader will be able to deliver a 63-vote margin for the leading candidate. Compare the delegate margins deliverable by the winning candidates in the largest states that have had contests, using realclearpolitics.com delegate counts:

winner loser difference
Puerto Rico 63 0 63
California 101 59 42
New York 127 87 40
Florida 0 0 0
Illinois 79 27 52
Michigan 0 0 0
Georgia 45 22 23
New Jersey 51 37 14

I can imagine the following scenario. Hillary Clinton's delegate margin over Barack Obama rises and falls a bit from week to week, depending on primary results. Her margin among superdelegates, around 100, fails to increase much because party and public officeholders are wary of offending Obama's youth and black constituencies. Then, presto! In early June, Puerto Rico's 63 delegates put her over the top. She has her majority and goes about the business of choosing a vice presidential candidate.