Does not matter what month it is, does not matter which election it is, every one has a poll they refer to in trying to convince us they are right, or their party is going to win. So, as we enter the homestretch of this midterm election, thought it would be interesting to look at a few polls, and do some comparisons. I think being able to see the progressions is very telling.
Survey Dates Rep Dems Other Lead
CNN 10/6-8 37 58 5 21 D
CNN 9/29-10/2 42 53 5 11 D
CNN 9/22-24 42 55 3 13 D
This first poll shows some very interesting trends. First, it shows that the Democrats have been maintaining a steady voter majority over this period of time. You can see in the middle survey (just before Foley Gate) that Bush and the Republicans upward trending was not really as positive as they tried to portray. They had remained stagnant while two percent of those polled moved into the OTHER category, verse the Republican category. Most startling is the HUGE jump for the Democrats once Foley Gate hit and took hold. Most telling, is that those supporting others remained constant, which means the five point swing in favor of the Democrats shows a loss in the Republican Base for Bush and Company.
USA Today 10/6- 8 36 59 5 23D
USA Today 9/15-17 48 48 4
This one is startling, because it shows in the 9/15-17 poll that George Bush's assault on the airwaves the week after 9/11 had a positive effect, and that in at least one poll he'd pulled the Republican Party into a statistical DEAD HEAT...then the Foley Scandal hit, and the turn around is devastating for the Republicans. What I find interesting, is this shows the unfair advantage the sitting presidents party has in using the airwaves as a propaganda machine.
ABC 10/5-8 41 54 5 13D
ABC 9/5-7 42 50 9 8D
Again, we see that Foley Gate, the proverbial October Surprise has played a part in a major downward trend in the Republican base. We are only 26 Days away from the elections, and depending on which polls you want to look at, the Republicans find themselves in a situation of needing to regain five polling points a week between now and November to prove the pundits and pollsters wrong. Comparing some 40 polls, the Democrats are up right now by and average of 14 percentage points across America.
The problem for the Republicans though, is that they on average over the past six weeks that I studied the polls tracked on average at only 42 percent of those polled, with the USA Today September poll the oddity in all the polls. Even more disturbing for the Republicans has to be the FOX Poll done before the Foley Gate Scandal that showed Republicans polling at a horrid 38 percent, with the Democrats holding an 11 percentage point lead. FOX is biased in favor of Republicans, and thus perhaps the most important of the polls for Republicans.
October so far is shaping up as one of the worst months ever in Iraq with deaths and maimed Americans being reported in record numbers. Though the report will not be released until after the election, James Baker has already hinted to various news media that the independent group the president put together to make recommendations for Iraq is not going to be kind to the Bush Administration. Reports out of Afghanistan are not good, and for most Americans in the Middle Class, these are not good times as illegals steal our jobs and depress our wages. Perhaps the final straw that will have broken the Republicans back as they say, was their REFUSAL to raise the minimum wage, while giving themselves their traditional YEARLY RAISE.
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Comments: 15
i dislike polls that are referred to by the company that paid for it. polling companies have standards, use different error rates, ask questions differently. so i like it when the polling company is identified, instead of the paying organization or the organization that publishes an article on the results.
but yes, i think the foley stuff dented the republicans but there is time for a backlash. i'm seeing signs of that happening now. they get tired of the foleygate assault.
It stimulates the resolve of the underdog to get out the vote while the competition may sit home election day expecting their vote is not needed.
Ironically, those were the only polls trusted by wingnuts.
"I've talked to a lot of people that have never voted before, and they are going to come out and vote republican mainly because most of them are sick to death of Nancy Pelosi, she scares the hell out people. "
Can you tell me which specific policies of Nancy Pelosi's that you so strong oppose and are terrified of?
Also, FYI, all of my acquaintances are coming out to vote against republicans, because they're so sick to death of the culture of corruption/party of zero accountability, and the fact that they cover up for pedophiles scares the hell out of people.
What would you call them? They're rightwingers and they're nutty.
"Well Clark, for one thing if you watch CSPAN "
I watch CSPAN quite a bit, and I don't know what you're talking about. It's truly one of the last places that we can actually go to hear both sides of an issue.
"may I suggest you go to this website and educate yourself, it's really enlightening; www.congressionalbadboys.com, and then notice that are several Republicans on these lists, but there are many, many more Democrats taht hve been jailed, censured, and kicked out of office throughout history."
Please. Let's not pretend that the GOP is not the current reigning champion of corrupt, shall we? Let's not insult everyone. We've all seen the endless parade of corrupt GOP politicians indicted, arrested, charged, convicted, jailed, or otherwise over the past couple years.
" By the way Clark, I also read the mysteriou IM's concerning Foley and found them disgusting, however disgusting as it is, soliciting from a 16 year old does not constitute pedophilia. "
Interesting spin. You run with that on, ok? In fact, get all of your GOP politicians to run with that one. I bet it'll play REALLY well with Mom and Dad America.
"But maybe you can sdeh some light on Clinton: what did he do in his eight year term that was breathtaking?"
8 years of peace and prosperity really sucked, didn't it?
Created 23 million new jobs
lifted 6 million out of poverty
balanced the budget
erased the republican deficit
Family and medical leave act
NAFTA (you should LOVE him for this one)
Brady bill
Earned income tax credit
Worked to create an Arab-Israeli agreement
"I honestly can't think of anything and that's not just being anti-Democrat."
Right. You're "fair and balanced."
"What dis Jimmy Carter do for the country?"
Made the dept. of energy a cabinet level position
Environmental legislation
Deregulated trucking, airline, rail, finance, communications, and oil industries
Bolstered SS
Camp David Accords
Full diplomatic relations with China
Salt II
"What did Lyndon Johnson do?"
Civil rights Act
Voting rights act
Great society
Federal aid for education
Medicare/medicaid
Equal opportunity act
Man on the moon
"Other that the Cuban Crisis, what did JFK do?
Created Peace Corps
Nuclear test ban treaty
Tax cuts
Federal funding for education, medical care
Launched the apollo project
Howard Dean, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, John Conyers, Barney Frank, John Murtha, Teddy Kennedy, Jane Harmon, Joe Biden, Robert Byrd (Mr. KKK), and a few other choice individuals. Put an American Flag of their backs and send then to Baghdad and soon the world would be a much better place.
Robert S. commented Oct 12, 2006 "
My, how "American" and "fair and balanced" of you. Yes, we can see how much YOU long for intelligent discussion.
Why don't you list your reasons for wanting these politicians to be murdered, and why you think murdering them will make America better?
Says it all, really---- prognosticators are amusing if nothing else.