Whether or not there is an economic collapse for the US may depend mainly on how it deals with the end of the era of cheap oil, coal and natural gas and the decline of the manufacturing and machinery base of its economy.
Jonathan Rynn in How to Enter the Global Green Economy * writes:
"A robust industrial sector is the infrastructure we need for building the tools that will help us to avert climate catastrophe. Think of the industrial sector of an economy as an ecosystem. Instead of the grass and leaves that feed the plant-eaters that feed the meat eaters, a modern economic ecosystem contains industrial equipment that makes production technology that creates the goods and services that people consume. "
He describes how other industrial nations have maintained their industrial sectors and developed new technologies to meet the needs of the new global economy.
Europe and Japan's dominance is rooted in their industrial expertise and infrastructure.
Europe produces almost twice as much industrial equipment as the United States,Japan produces nearly as much the US. The EU, US, and Japan, which produce most of the world's machinery contribute 52%, 27% and 21%, respectively.
Rynn reasons why the United States has failed to keep pace with others:
"The different 'niches' of an economic ecosystem, such as the various machinery and equipment sectors, thrive as a self-reinforcing web of engineers, high-skill production workers, operational managers and factories. As of 2003, Europe's manufacturing sector made up 32% of its nonfinancial economy, while the manufacturing sector of the United States comprised only 13% of its nonfinancial sectors. The decline of American machinery and manufacturing sectors, in conjunction with the on-again/off-again nature of American renewable energy policy, explains why Europe and Japan are so far ahead of the United States in the transition to a more sustainable economy.
And America's decline can be traced to one overriding factor: a military budget that comprises nearly half of the world's military spending. For decades, as the late Professor Seymour Melman showed in many books (such as After Capitalism) ... , the Pentagon has been draining, not just money, but also the engineering, scientific and business talent that Europe and Japan have been using for civilian production. As Melman often pointed out, the U.S. military budget is a capital fund, and American citizens can use that fund to help finance the construction of the trains, wind and solar power, and other green technologies that will help us to avoid economic and environmental collapse. "
* http://www.fpif.org/fpiftxt/5299
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Comments: 20
Direction? Why? In the evolution of the species there are no rules and some fail only because of climate. While others are very successful and then fail because of a very large volcano.
Question - Should we in the US succeed.
And if so why?
What would the purpose of being successful in the US be.
Is it about "success" ? The United States is powerful . It can be a force for good or evil, civilzation or barbarism on a global scale. That is a responsibility for which history will judge impartially.
With all our military spendthrifting, we're operating in the negative interpretation of the 4th Ray (HARMONY-THROUGH-CONFLICT) which Jesus taught as "Love thine Enemy."
I look forward to the day when the awakening masses swing the balance to the point of operating that 4th-Ray energy in the positive.
Is it about "success" ? The United States is powerful . It can be a force for good or evil, civilzation or barbarism on a global scale. That is a responsibility for which history will judge impartially. '
Clarke, George W. Bush will be judged by history impartially?
Yep, for sure.
I mean we don't have the perspective of history. The United States is looked up to by many for its leadership, government and achievements in the past and it can be in future.
We have a serious situation to deal with. Our nation's leaders have squandered our public money on insane and criminal wars and failed to provide leadership for the private sector, instead of building our infrastructure to meet the needs of the new century. We are eight years late, and many dollars short. You can see the same thing in the automobile industry, and a host of other critical business sectors and technologies. This is a major story the two candidates haven't addressed and it doesn't interest the mainstream media.
And that we'll soon stop minting pennies, since they're so expensive.
I'm saving my pennies---------they'll be collectors' items!
(c:*
Remember, there are a couple of different "governments" at work here:
1.The [military-industrial] corporatocracy, which is hell-bent on parasitizing anyone and everyone worldwide;
and
2.The IDEAL of excellent government which we all hold in our hearts, and which many of us support and try over and over again to fully actualize.
Here's a question: Can you find an economist who says that China can maintain double-digit economic growth every year for ten years in a row? When China "hits the wall," so to speak, it will cause problems for the whole world. Right now, the US economy has "hit the wall," and we just have to do what we can do to soften the impact. Remember, also, that China pegs their currency to the dollar, so they're products get cheaper on the world market, just as ours are now.
I see I'm kind of rambling, so I'll just say thanks for a thought-provoking piece, Clarke.
The article rests on the fact other nations are less subject to what happens with our economy then before and because of our foreign debt they can determine the terms of our trade with them more than a decade ago. We have been weighting our foreign policy on Cold War thinking, seeking military dominance in space and maintaining 730 plus foreign bases. We may provoke an arms race with Russia, which would not be in our or their interest. We have to borrow abroad to fund this. Europe (and NATO) have to trade with Russia, China, India , Japan, the Middle East to maintain their economy (as well as Africa and South America and other developing nations). Europe is larger than we are and produces more than we do. China for all its challenges will probably be the wealthiest nation soon and India may surpass it in a few decades. China trades more with others than she does with the United States already. Our dollar is weak because our economy is weak . This may favor our exports but we haven't enough to export. Foreign sovereign funds and corporations of different nations are buying our assets, which is a transfer of wealth.
I've been tracking the 'alternatives energy industrial sector' now for nearly a year. My interest is in gathering information from worldwide sources in order to get an idea about where the important developmental actions are going on, and also tracking stock market performances (and investing some in both equities, mutual funds, and exchange traded funds (ETF's). The story in the U.S. A. is far less interesting than in some other countries, and I anticipate that the REAL developments in Market Place activities will drag in our USA and it MAY turn out that worthy developments and applications will likely be far better in parts of the WORLD like the Far East and Europe.
However, there may be a lot more activity going along quietly within some of our major USA companies (like the automobile companies, I hope). Also in some large conglomerates like G.E. But this info is far less available easily in the public domain it seems, than info about the smallish (relatively) firms that are doing research and trying to launch productive and profitable NEW products in many, many parts of our planet.
WE THE PEOPLE OF THE WORLD need some solid ideas about what is going on all over the WORLD. This is no time to play games with our Earth's future as I see the chips starting to fall and NOT fall. We need solid and diverse information so that we, and appropriate public governmental sources, can properly begin to assess the RISKS inherent in non-actions and developments as time moves relentlessly on. The stakes are too high for us PEOPLES to accept the secrecies that are normally allowed to dominate our private firms and our venturing folk in our market places and in those activities that have to do with infrastructure needs WORLDWIDE.
The real question in the next few years will be that of assessing whether appropriate and sufficient PROGRESS in applications are being made to avert looming disasters as economic developments throughout the WORLD attempt to move ahead and thus press the natural resourcew bases and thus create price escalations AND accompanying dangerour pollution.MONITORING should become a MAJOR activity for our PRESS and our GOVERNMENTS. We need systematic reports about PROGRESS to avoid tendencies toward panic if events worsen our human anticipations. PROGRESS will be healing; lack of it will TERRORIZE. Politicians must be made to understand these likelihoods.
Dick
We have chosen to spend more money on the military than the rest of the world combined - think about that for a moment. We have allowed our infrastructure to deteriorate, and our research and manufacturing capabilities to wither, and our debt to the rest of the world to reach levels never seen in history. All this at the same time as we have been in a state of denial concerning global climate change. Now in a kind of perfect storm it all seems to be coming due.
This article on NASA yesterday:
Buzz Aldrin: Invest in Nasa to beat the Chinese to Mars
By Tim Shipman in Washington
"Buzz Aldrin, the second man on the Moon, has issued a stark warning that America must invest now in the space agency Nasa, or surrender leadership of space exploration to Russia and China.
In an interview with The Sunday Telegraph, Mr Aldrin revealed that he intends to lobby Barack Obama and John McCain, the two US presidential candidates, in an effort to ensure they find sufficient funds for Nasa's goal to establish a permanent base on the Moon and then send a manned mission to Mars.
Nasa celebrates its 50th anniversary this year but faces grave embarrassment. The ill-fated Shuttle is due to make its last flight in 2010 but it will be a further five years before its replacement, the Ares rocket and Orion crew capsule - also intended for trips to the moon - are ready."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/2211940/Buzz-Aldrin-Invest-in-Nasa-to-beat-the-Chinese-to-Mars.html
As for the effect of the military, we have been suckers admittedly for protecting the Euros/Japan while they were able to shift those funds for other areas. As a factor in our GDP, its smaller than the wealth transfers called entitlements.
Spending a trillion dollars a year on the military , more than all others nations combined , much of it "off- budget," and neglecting our domestic economy has caused a transfer of industry abroad.
Bush represents the worst-performing economy in the G-8 after Italy, with growth of 0.5 percent this year set to lag behind 1.6 percent in the U.K., 1.4 percent in the euro area, 1.4 percent in Japan and 1.3 percent in Canada, according to International Monetary Fund forecasts.
Russia, brought into the G-8 by Bill Clinton in 1998, will eclipse the rest of the club with growth of 6.8 percent this year, the IMF says. Russia's oil and commodity wealth puts it at odds with the western goal of cutting reliance on fossil fuels. China, seen expanding 9.3 percent, has also frustrated the fight against global warming by locking up energy deals in Africa to slake its economic thirst. China will be among eight non-G-8 members that take part on the summit's last day.
America's dependence on imported capital to finance a $9.5 trillion debt -- up from $5.7 trillion when Bush took office -- has driven down the currency. The decline was accelerated by the subprime crisis that plunged the U.S. into an economic tailspin.