Dick Cheney: "I cannot think of a time when we have had a region emerge as suddenly to become as strategically significant as the Caspian." (Guardian, 1998)
John J. Maresca, vice president of international relations, Unocal Corporation: "Construction of our proposed pipeline cannot begin until a recognized government is in place... In spite of this, a route through Afghanistan appears to be the best option with the fewest technical obstacles...[The route ] is the one that would bring Central Asian oil closest to Asian markets and thus would be the cheapest in terms of transporting the oil." (Congressional Record, 2/12/98)
When we invaded Afghanistan on October 7, 2001, the objectives were clear. The stated purposes were to capture Osama bin Laden, destroy al-Qaeda and remove the Taliban regime.
The campaign has involved two components. Operation Enduring Freedom is currently reported to involve a total of 20,000 troops, including 18,000 from the U.S. There is also a parallel operation known as the International Security Assistance Force which involves 47,000 troops, of which 17,000 are from the U.S. So, altogether, we have 35,000 troops there out of a total of 67,000. Recently, President Bush and Prime Minister Gordon Brown of the UK committed to sending in thousands more.
Most of the non-U.S. military personnel in the campaign are from NATO countries.
Lately, conditions there have been heating up. Secretary Gates announced that more coalition troops were killed in Afghanistan in May than in Iraq, and Afghanistan has been the subject of most of the Middle East articles this week in the L.A. Times.
Furthermore, the Taliban pulled off a major attack on a prison last week in the southern Kandahar region freeing 900 prisoners, including nearly 400 militants.
And, since then, the Taliban moved into nearly a dozen villages in the area, according to press reports. Taliban fighters were reported to be laying mines, blocking roads and culverts and destroying footbridges, in anticipation of doing battle with Afghan and Western troops who were being airlifted into the main coalition base outside Kandahar.
According to the latest news reports, that battle is now ongoing. And Afghan and NATO forces have seized back four of the villages in fierce fighting.
As far as the initial objectives for the war are concerned, it is evident that the pursuit of Osama bin Laden has been largely abandoned, as he is considered to have left the country. By the same token, al-Qaeda is no longer a significant factor within Afghanistan as it has also concentrated its growing strength in the neighboring country of Pakistan.
So that leaves the elimination of the Taliban as the one remaining obstacle. And this has become a formidable task, as the militant organization, once considered to be on the ropes, has regrouped and grown stronger.
But one might well ask if there is another purpose up the collective sleeves of the policymakers.
This article will make the case that there is, and that, like Iraq, it very much involves the "O" word.
In retrospect, it seems that the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 may have provided the U.S. with a golden opportunity, acting on behalf of "big oil," to create a permanent military and commercial presence in the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia.
Back in 1998, when Dick Cheney, then head of Halliburton, referred to "the Caspian," as he did above, he was talking about this area, the landlocked region immediately north of Afghanistan that is today occupied by several nations sometimes referred to as the "Stans."
At that time, the State Department estimated the Caspian region had reserves of oil and gas totaling 178 billion barrels or more, making it the largest untapped source of these fuels in the world. The problem was, and remains today, that the region is landlocked and lacks an effective means of transporting the oil and gas to market.
The logical route, as described by John J. Maresca above, is through Afghanistan and Pakistan to Karachi on the Arabian Sea.
As significant as this opportunity was in 1998, the area has now grown even more strategic. The potential reserves are estimated to be larger today and the world is in greater need of the resources.
It has now been determined, for example, that Turkmenistan, immediately north of Afghanistan and Iran, contains the world's fourth largest reserves of natural gas within a single national border.
Kazakhstan, however, may be the choicest plum with enormous oil reserves now estimated at 100 to 110 billion barrels. This is approximately 10% of all worldwide oil reserves that were known to exist at the end of 2002, according to Saudi-USRelations.org. Two of the country's recently discovered oil fields are among the ten largest in the world.
And, Afghanistan itself has seen its oil reserves increased by a factor of 18 times, according to a U.S. Geological Survey that came out in March of '06.
Companies reported to have ongoing operations in the Caspian Region include ExxonMobil, ChevronTexaco, Shell, Halliburton, Fluor and Blackwater.
As the region juggles its options for delivering its products to a thirsty world, longing eyes are cast over the most direct route through Afghanistan and Pakistan.
However, beyond the disruptive campaigns that are now ongoing against the Taliban, Afghanistan is handicapped by an ethnic rivalry similar to that of Iraq, but involving the Pashtun in the south, the Uzbeks in the northwest, and the Tajiks in the northeast. Violence between the rival factions, however, is considerably less than in Iraq.
Americans may never forgive the Taliban for harboring Osama bin Laden, and maybe they shouldn't, but arguably, the quickest way to restore some semblance of order and create an environment conducive to building the pipeline that the world so badly needs would be for a negotiated settlement based on diplomacy.
Otherwise, costly violence will continue in the country, and other, far more expensive routes will eventually be developed out of the Caspian Region.
Dave McGill, News Correspondent
Dave's column, "The Contrarian," generally published every Friday, to Gather Essentials: News will sometimes present a contrary view to various aspects of the news, or an alternate take on the conventional wisdom of the day, and will occasionally appear on other days of the week
Dave has been a senior officer of an eastern insurance company, involved in economic projections and investment strategy, president of a Midwestern mortgage banking company, and a financial consultant in Southern California, serving clients in the field of commercial real estate development
You can find all of Dave's "The Contrarian" columns at: http://gather.com/thecontrarian...... Keep up with Dave's other postings and Gather activity by joining his Gather network - just click here: http://atadaskew.gather.com........ You'll find Dave and other News Correspondents, plus celebrity content and plenty of other News experts at News.gather.com.
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Comments: 33
Excellent and informative article! Had we not abandoned Afghanistan when we cut and run to hasten the invasion of Iraq, perhaps the situation in Afghanistan would be much more stable at this time. Iraq, at the time, was a stable situation, even though Saddam was a despicable dictator, and could have been left to stabilize the entire Mideast.
I heard there was another successful attack in Afghanistan today. While it all seems to be coming apart, I fear that some see the situation as "all coming together" which is only bad news.
To solve the oil pipeline issue from the Caspian sea areas to some area that would be useful for the US, which is a different solution than a solution for China or Europe by the way, I don't think can be done for many decades, not years.
And the dry run that Israel just completed over the Iranian atomic plant sites will make it much more difficult to complete.
Also going from the Caspian to China won't be a problem, and will also solve the demand for oil issue.
As to OBL. How many times does it have to be said, The Man Is Dead! His son may be carrying on in his stead but OBL himself is dead. We got that news from a woman in Pakastan who was murdered, I think because of that one statement.
Invadding because of a pipeline actually makes more sense as to why invade. It is undrhanded and wrong but it makes more sense than to invade just to apprehend one individual.
As to Oil and Blackwater. I has finally dawned on me why it is named Black water. It is in existence to protect at any cost the Oil industries operations. It is the OIL industries security force.
Col. George W., Jun 20, 2008, 11:05am EDT "
Ahhhhh! I never thought of that, Col. You are probably right.
But I think the real issue is the fact that we need to wein our selves OFF burning stuff to generate energy. If we don't do this, nothing else will matter.
Unfortunately, his legacy remains. His insane followers will fight to the death, every one of them.
The Blackwater theory is exactly what will happen. Sic those guys on anyone who tries to attack a new pipeline, and the body count will be through the roof.
We could have been energy-independent 20 years ago, and a hell of a lot of it would be green. I don't know what the hell's going on around here. I hate to say it, but it's almost Biblical.
Why is it always about the oil. Can't they spend their time and our money coming up with oil alternatives? And how many ...stans are there?
Dave's use of pre-9-11 remarks by Cheney, and his pure speculation about the role that oil played in the decision to attack Afghanistan reflect Dave's continuing partisan bias against the Administration. He is entitled to his biased opinion.
Still, it must be said that oil does drive not only the economies of the world, but also makes our current civilization and all its benefits possible. From the many uses to which we put plastic to the fuel to keep our vast personal, public and commerical transportation networks rolling to the source of energy for our industry and our electronic world, oil is essential to life as we know it. Remove oil from the equation and we wouldn't even be having these discussions over the internet. We even eat the stuff in such products as "Cool Whip", edible petroleum by-products.
As much as I loathe the greed, the megalomania and the bloodlust of the Bushies and their dispicable and despotic coterie of thugs, is it really any wonder that the wars of this century are all focused on the oil rich regions of the world? Wasn't all of this predicted? And wasn't it predictable simply because important resources are always what people have fought over?
I do envision a world of the future wherein we could work collectively in the world to harvest the resources that we could all benefit from. A world in which Iraqis and Afghanis do not have to be the poor and victimized people from whom we basically steal all the oil wealth while playing political shell games with illusory ideals like "spreading democracy" to justify the preservation of our privileged lifestyles. A world in which the well being of all humans is factored into the equation, rather than just the excessive wealth and power of a few.
Not communism, mind you, where everyone is supposed to be equal and have equal outcomes. Rather a blend of democratic socialism and capitalism that allows for competition and excellence and rewards them with riches but not with overflowing oppulence and with respect but not with undue influence. A world in which the common good has meaning and currency in society, not for the citizens of one country but of all the world.
Okay, so I will never live to see such a world. But I do believe it will come to pass. And why shouldn't we dream of such a world and work towards realizing such a dream?
Isn't it worth it?
Once again it is necessary to remind you that OBL had virtually no presence in Iraq under Saddam and Iraq did not sponsor the terrorist attack on the WTC. Saddam, in fact, condemned the actions at the WTC! Saddam hated Osama. Once we took out Saddam and pandemonium reigned in Iraq, Osama's people migrated to Iraq. Now most of them have been ousted since we started collaborating with the Sunni insurgents. Sometimes it pays to negotiate with terrorists!
People keep coming back to the Iraq and 911 as if there were a relationship. Even the president acknowledges that there was no connection and if he'll admit it that is going some! However, now the entire region is destabilized and it looks like we are going to have a Shiite government in Iraq to match the one in Iran. See any trouble on the horizon there?
Why don't people seem to remember that the plane hijackers were Saudis? And the most of OBL's recruits are still Saudi, not Iraqi. Can't people put this together when it is as obvious as it has been?
Saddam was supported by us while he was killing his own people! He was our boy and we liked him because he kept Iran at bay. Now of course, we wanted to hang him because of those same killings which we tacitly approved. If there were no oil under the ground in Iraq there would be no American soldiers on the ground there! That was obvious the day we invaded and remains so.
Good to hear from you, Judi, and I enjoyed being on Bernard's show on KFUN again today. He exhibits a great on-air personality and it is always a great pleasure to interreact with him.
That is a good point, Sandy. Prior to 9/11 we had identified the Taliban as an ally we wanted to covet, in order to facilitate the transportation of the oil out of the oil-rich areas to the north. One might ask, in terms of the situation today, what really has changed?
"Oil and opium," they represent the crux of the matter, as you point out, "Don't Get Me Started."
Thanks for your comment Lisa....Without jumping onto a map, I would say there are about five "Stans," not counting Afghanistan. It is "all about oil" because of the heated competition, internationally. Even though China's usage is only a little over one third of ours, today, it is projected to explode down the road, and India's is also expected to rise.
Yesterday, China announced it would stop subsidizing the price of oil for its citizens, which could serve to reduce the usage there, but some think that is only a temporary move and that the subsidy may be back after the Olympics.
As reported in a Contrarian article last week ("What Oil Crisis?"), the current data regarding oil production, usage and supplies provides no basis for the prices we are seeing.
One must conclude that the crisis is occuring because of speculative investing in commodities by investors who have no interest in actually using the product and that their motives are somewhat influenced by their perception of long term trends but much more by a gambling instinct fueled by greed.
More than twenty years ago, I stood in a garage in Orange County here, and observed (only) this same type of greed, as fifty to one hundred people threw tens of thousands of dollars (in cash) into a pyramid scheme. The same scene was occuring all over California. It was insane, and of course it blew up in the late-comers faces, but it revealed the intense greed that lives under the surface of many people and is the type of greed that has recently been propelling oil prices upward.
Our president, meanwhile, is becoming ever more transparent as an advocate for the oil patch and not for the people. His constant statements, and those of his henchman, indicating that the problem today is one of supply, is totally unsupported by the data put out by a branch of his own administration. We need to drill offshore like we need to drill a hole in our heads.
And yes, Rory, it is worth while to dream of a world where diplomacy actually works, and - in fact - we can do much more than dream, we can vote wisely with that in mind. In the meantime, however, I noticed that the conflagration erupting in Afghanistan is in the area primarily covered by Canadian troops, so current developments might be of particularly interest to those in your neck of the woods.
Devin, in a few words you succinctly expressed the perfect long-term solution - to find alternative forms of energy. However, this is a cry that emerges every time we have this type of crisis and the powers behind the throne always manage to make sure that nothing significant is ever accomplished. I am extremely doubtful that this will be any different as long as our politicians are being paid off to maintain the status quo.
I read comments that we should develop more wind farms and solar installations, but I see with my own eyes that a major wind farm near Palm Springs continues to be woefully under utilized with only 10% of the mills operating on some windy days. There is a major effort in the energy field to suppress factors that might have the effect of reducing the artificially high prices, and we will need a basic change in our political system before anything can be done about it.
James C - Ahhh the power of cheese errr ah um disinformation. Who ever said we weren't good at it.
Randy W.
Taliban were never state sponsor of terrorist activity, they did give OBL a safe sanctuary. But if u study Afghan tradtions & customs... one should not be surprised. OBL fought along them against Russians and helped recruit "Afghan Arabs" & maintain constant flow of arms, etc for the resistance. By their tradition when OBL asked for refuge, they were in debt to him for his services & provided him shelter.
btw, go to any library and dig up newspapers from the time frame of 9/11. Mullah Omar did offer to handover a Muslim country if he was shown evidence of OBL's involvement in 9/11, G.W.Bush refused.
Irony is, we praised these "Mujahideen" when they were fighting the Russians. They r doing the same now in Iraq & Afghanistan. But since we r enemy, it's a crime to resist. Strange!
I stated at the time that most Americans would blame good old Saddam for what happened on that fateful day and it would be the springboard for the invasion of that country and i was proved right.
Propaganda if used right is a wonderful tool and the bush administration used it at its best.
As for Afghanistan no country who has invaded this wild and lawless land as come any where near to conquering it, they have all at one time or the other slipped back to there countries with there tails between there legs .We are seeing more casualties in the British army who are at the front line than any time since the Korean war ,now that tells me something and that something is ,that the Taliban is far from finished and they will continue to attack the coalition forces at will,this fight is far from over and it will get worse far worse than Iraq