the contrarian - THE IMMIGRATION BILL - IS IT AMNESTY?...A CORPORATE PAYOFF?...OR BOTH?

Why the rush?

A tentative version of the new, proposed immigration bill was first made available to the Senators at 2:00 AM on Saturday, and the Senate leaders are pressing for a resolution by Memorial Day. That’s only five days from now and, in its final form, the bill will be hundreds of pages long. What’s going on here?

Under these conditions, One must wonder how many of the Senators will really be aware of the bill’s contents by the time they cast their vote. In previous situations similar to this, important provisions have slipped through the cracks without the consideration they deserve.

Seemingly, the least objectionable measures in the present bill would call for the hiring of some 6,000 additional Border Patrol officers, building more fencing and vehicle barriers and expanding surveillance by adding radio towers and aerial drones. More pressure would also be put on employers to avoid hiring illegal aliens.

But beyond these provisions, which may not be effective enough to even slow down the pace of illegal immigration, there is considerable controversy.

So far, most of the rhetoric is being directed towards the question of whether the bill is actually offering “amnesty” to the estimated 12,000,000 illegal aliens that are now here. President Bush and the framers insist that amnesty is not part of this legislation, basing their contention on the fact that there is a fine involved along the pathway to citizenship.

However, in what has become partly a tussle over semantics, Republican presidential candidates Romney and Huckabee, claim that “amnesty,” by any other name, is still "amnesty."

Regardless of how it’s interpreted, the proposed legislation appears to be in for an uphill battle. Yesterday, lawmakers from both sides of the aisle took shots at it and there were heated exchanges on the Senate floor.

Furthermore, of all the candidates from both parties, McCain is the only one that has come out in favor of it, although Giuliani has safely avoided offering any direct comment so far.

As it is being considered at this time, the bill would provide a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants who were in the country prior to January 1, 2007. In order to qualify, they would have to pay $5,000 in fines and $2,000 in processing fees. Furthermore, the heads of the households would have to return to their home country and then reenter the United States legally. In the process, all family members would have to pass background checks.

Given, the degree of distrust for our government that exists in the immigrant community, common sense would dictate that not too many illegal immigrants would take the United States up on this deal, an estimated 18-month process, even if they could afford it.

Therefore, it seems reasonable to assume that this provision, if approved , would be largely ineffective.

However, while most of the attention is being focused on the word “amnesty,” it’s a good bet that corporate America is holding its breath with its fingers crossed.  In a major concession to the Republicans, the bill contains a significant change in how the immigration process will qualify new legal residents down the road.

With less emphasis on family relationships, future immigrants would be rated by a system based on merit points. Under this new guest worker program, green card applicants would be awarded a maximum of 100 points. Half the points would involve job qualifications with the highest points going to such skills as engineering. Credits would also be offered for a U.S. job offer, U.S. work experience, educational background and the ability to speak fluent English.

Corporations are claiming that this system will keep America globally competitive. Others are saying that this is just another way of sticking it to the American worker.

Whatever the point of view, one thing is clear. Instead of just being limited to cheap, low-level labor, the business community would, under this bill, gain access to cheap, skilled labor.

Democrats in the Senate tried to eliminate the proposed guest worker program yesterday. However, reflecting the clout that comes with millions of dollars in corporate contributions, the effort mustered only 31 votes.

Thus, American workers, already battered by job outsourcing and layoffs, could now be faced with the possibility of a government program that would encourage unwelcome competition from immigrants.

The Center for Immigration Studies in Washington, DC is planning to release a study this week that will show “that foreign, highly skilled workers earn less than Americans with comparable skills and education.”

Meanwhile, corporate America’s claim that it can’t find enough skilled workers simply doesn’t hold water, except, possibly, in isolated cases.

The Carnegie Foundation reported that, for the fall of 2004, there were 17,568,606 students enrolled in American institutions of higher learning. It defies logic to claim that this pool of talent is not producing the graduates that the nation‘s businesses are calling for.

Layoffs, which involve many highly skilled workers, represent another pool of potential job candidates. On February 6^th, the international outplacement firm, Challenger, Gray & Christmas, reported that U.S. companies laid off 275,921 workers in the previous two months alone, the highest two-month total since they started tabulating job cuts in 1993.

What this country needs is legislation that effectively stops illegal immigration in its tracks, and, at the same time, protects the integrity of the American workforce.

What this nation doesn’t need is a hastily contrived bill that accomplishes neither.

Dave McGill, News Correspondent……………….

Dave’s column, “The Contrarian,” published every Wednesday to Gather Essentials: News will occasionally present a contrary view to various aspects of the news, or an alternate take on the conventional wisdom of the day………….

Dave has been a senior officer of a large eastern insurance company, involved in economic projections and investment strategy, president of a Midwestern mortgage banking company, and a financial consultant in Southern California, serving clients in the field of commercial real estate development…………….

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