Carly Fiorina will challenge Barbara Boxer in California

This wasn't much of a surprise at all, but it does guarantee a very interesting race in California. If she wins the nomination, that is. Assemblyman Chuck DeVore is already in the primary race and although he has never been elected to anything above his current position, he already possesses a significant following in the conservative base. Considering that many conservative activists already feel emboldened to challenge "establishment" Republican candidates (Consider Mark Kirk in Illinois, Rob Simmons in Connecticut, Charlie Crist in Florida, etc) don't expect DeVore to step aside in the face of Fiorina's support and deep pockets. Carly Fiorina has the ability to self-finance a race in a state that is extremely expensive to advertise in and also against an incumbent who already has $6 million in campaign reserves.

One thing the Boxer campaign has made clear: They will make an issue out of Fiorina's turbulent leadership at Hewlett Packard, something that could be a thorn in the side of the Fiorina campaign. But if Fiorina is the nominee, she could give Barbara Boxer her most difficult campaign since 1992 when she was first elected to succeed Alan Cranston in a tight race against Bruce Herschensohn. One of the most aggressive members of the Senate who is known for her fervent defense of women's against an equally aggressive former Silicon Valley CEO who recently survived breast cancer could give politico watchers one of the most entertaining races of the year. Polls currently show Boxer with a double digit lead against Fiorina, but that will no doubt change as the campaign mounts in full swing.

Barbara Boxer has never been a terribly popular politician since her first election and her approval ratings have rarely been above 50% throughout her almost 18 year career in the Senate. On top of that, her last three campaigns have been against relatively conservative white men who had a hard time reaching out to moderate Republicans and independents (Although California is a relatively liberal state, it has one of the more conservative Republican parties in the country). Running against a women who campaigns on her business experience would provide a new test for the aggressive campaign style of Barbara Boxer.

Regardless, Boxer's fortunes will be ultimately based on the state of the economy next year and whether or not Obama's health care bill gets passed (in a popular form). If the economy is still in the stinker, there is a narrow path (i emphasize the word narrow) of victory for Carly Fiorina by emphasizing economic issues and her business background.