MONEY MATTERS: Water, The Most Precious Commodity

The list of fastest growing metropolitan U.S. cities, since 2000, is topped by Los Angeles. Of the 50 fastest growing metropolitan cities, all but five are in the South, Southwest, or West.  In terms of sheer numbers, Phoenix added more people than any other city - 44,456 new residents, a 3.1 percent rise.

According to Census Bureau estimates, small sunbelt cities dominated the latest list of fastest growing U.S. cities, as a percentage of population. Four of the top 10 cities are in California, three are in Florida, two are in Arizona, and the other is in Nevada.

It's of little surprise. For the past 25 years, the American population has been increasingly shifting from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and Southwest. While states like New York, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Michigan, and Ohio have lost population, sunbelt states such as Florida, Texas, Nevada, and Arizona have all grown considerably.

Arizona is now the fastest-growing state in the country, replacing Nevada, which had held the crown for 19 straight years. Nevada was 2nd in population growth last year and Texas was also in the top five.

This massive population shift is posing a serious threat to the limited water resources of Western states, and this unchecked growth could result in cataclysmic trouble.

California, the nation's most populous state with nearly 37 million residents, is facing a serious water crunch. The Sierra snow pack, the source of most of the state's fresh water, is disturbingly low. The present snow pack is 71 percent below normal, with surveys dating back to 1930.

Said Department of Water Resources Director Lester Snow, "There is no question that these snow pack results indicate the need for conservation and more water storage."

And according to Professor Steven P. Erie, a professor of political science and the director of the Urban Studies and Planning program at UCSD, "Water is a huge problem in Southern California because nearly 20 million people live in a semi-arid desert environment than can only support a fraction of that population with local water supplies. Historically, the region has had to import water from Northern California and the Colorado River in order to prosper and grow. With imported supplies now limited, MWD is encouraging conservation, reclamation, water transfers, desalination, and other local initiatives to diversify the region’s water supply."

The outlook  is worrisome regarding the future availability of water in Southern California. "It certainly is a big challenge," says Erie. "The region likely will add 5 million more people in the next 20 years. With limited imported water supplies, we need to do more with conservation and reclamation. And we need to find new urban supplies, either by purchasing more agricultural water or by desalination."

But California is not alone. Critical water issues are facing many Western states, pitting rural areas against rapidly expanding cities.

Though summer has yet to officially begin, more than one third of the country is experiencing drought. Arizona is experiencing a record dry spell. And even the Southeast has had its driest spring since record-keeping began in 1895. Farmers in Tennessee are calling the current drought the worst in more than a century. In Nashville, the ground is so dry, even the weeds won't grow. In Florida, the massive Lake Okeechobee reservoir is suffering water levels so low that fires recently broke out on the lakebed.

But the problem of drought and limited water resources is particularly troubling for the fast-growing Western states.

Up to 90 percent of the water in some Western states is used for agriculture. But as desert cities grow to accommodate millions of people, enormous demands are being placed on the region's hotly disputed water supply.

Lake Powell, the gigantic reservoir behind the Glen Canyon Dam along the Arizona-Utah border, is at half its capacity. The same goes for the massive lake Mead. And with the Colorado River basin entering its eighth year of sustained drought, it doesn't look like the reservoir will be filling up again soon. Seven arid states use the river. As their populations grow, so do the demands on this limited resource. The river is often sucked dry before ever reaching the sea.

Lake Powell is the second-largest reservoir in the country. It took 17 years to fill after water started backing up behind Glen Canyon Dam in 1963. It has taken only about 8 years for half that water to disappear.

The problem is particularly troubling in Nevada, where the battle over water has already begun. Las Vegas taps groundwater from the valley beneath it and surface water from the Colorado River nearby. But neither is enough for the region's phenomenal growth. The valley has nearly doubled in population since 1991, to 1.5 million. Las Vegas gambling resorts now attract close to 40 million visitors a year.

Farmers in rural areas of Nevada have already begun their struggle against Las Vegas city planners over what is, ultimately, the very essence of life.

Many southern Nevada residents are worried that the aquifers beneath the northern valleys are connected and that drilling and pumping in one place would diminish the flow of water elsewhere. And a recently released draft report from the U.S. Geological Survey provided some reason for those concerns. The report concludes that the underground water system is indeed interconnected, but that there should be enough water for Las Vegas and the rural valleys.

That may be of little comfort to many Nevada residents, considering the latest prediction for the region.

A study published in the journal Science predicts that America's Southwest will be plagued by extended droughts in the coming decades.

Using data dating back to 1860, researchers studied 19 computer models of the climate and made projections into the future, to the year 2100. The same models were used in preparing the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The consensus of the models was that climate in the southwestern United States and parts of northern Mexico began a transition to drier conditions late in the 20th century and is continuing the trend in this century, as climate change alters the movement of storms and moisture in the atmosphere. The models show the drying trend continuing all the way to 2100 — for more than 90 years.

The study leads scientists to believe that the reduction in rainfall could be equivalent to the 1930s Dust Bowl era when thousands of farmers abandoned their parched land and moved away in search of jobs. They predict a permanent drought by 2050 throughout the Southwest.

The process of global warming will cause dry areas to get drier. Though the region will still have periodic wet years that are part of the natural climate variation, they are anticipated to be fewer and farther between.

The seven Colorado River Basin states — Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada, New Mexico, Arizona and California — will likely stage legal battles over the diminishing river flows. It is anticipated that California will come under pressure to build desalination plants on the coast, despite environmental concerns.

The water wars are coming. States may battle each other; agriculture and farming interests may battle urban planners; cities and states may battle residents to get them to stop watering lawns, washing cars, taking long showers, using dishwashers or washing machines with small loads, and otherwise frivolously wasting what is truly a precious and limited resource. 

Restraint and conservation will have to be preached and heeded. The economic well-being, and in fact the very life of many cities and states, will depend on it.

Ultimately development and growth must be sustainable, and they do have limits. That may be a bitter reality for some, but the reality of drought will be all the more bitter.

Sean M. Kennedy, Money Correspondent:

Money Matters, by Gather Correspondent Sean M. Kennedy, is published every Friday to Gather Essentials: Money.

Money Matters is a practical look at money and how developments in the American economy may affect you.

Sean is a freelance writer based in Los Angeles.

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