Now, Cardboard Boxes Among Many Indicators for Fed (NPR) but what are our indicators? Yesterday Bob Collins took a look at the pocket economy, in which the economic "truth is best uncovered by the worker bees among us." He points not to the professors and economists but to a package delivery driver and a server, two people who shared their daily experiences with the ebb and flow of business. They don't just say business is sllllooooowwwww, they give some examples.
That's not enough for Collins. He's looking for what you discover and asks you to survey the people you meet who take your money in routine business and report back. Think of how many people you deal with on any given day...maybe we can get an interesting picture of the money world around us.
I gave it a spin last night, and my comments below also appear on Bob's News Cut blog:
This is what I found out from a small restaurant owner last night...
The cold weather cut hard into neighborhood foot traffic, and the last few weeks of general and more pervasive inactivity caused him to cut some of his employee's shifts. Breakfasts on the weekend continue to do a good traffic, so people must feel like they can enjoy time during that window.
He didn't give me the nod to release his name :-( He doesn't seem to do much take out, but in retrospect I should have asked him about that. My inexpert assessment was the focus seems to be on shopping, not experiences.
But shopping may not be a good indicator either. When talking about your "assignment" with a gal on the bus, she mentioned that the last three times she's been to the St. Paul Super-duper-Target on University Ave (three visits since Thanksgiving...she may need an intervention) it is hopping, but her weekday stop at the regular-old-Target on Lake St. (granted, one trip) was strangely quiet. As in, "Cashiers were standing at the end of their stations waving people into line." I frequent that Target and I couldn't believe it, the place is usually a total tangle of carts and people.
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Julia Schrenkler
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Comments: 12
Also, we're driving around much, much less as those trips to the pump are so expensive. Granted, this is a good thing but, perhaps, another indicator of the rising cost of living.
When my husband picked up milk the other day, he noted that it was $4.00 for a gallon...
The book is also free (and complete) at http://www.unc.edu/~mason/hand.html without the Gather ads if you prefer it that way.
This will really work and is an idea you have never heard of before, really.
I'm in retail in the 2nd most expensive state to do business in (New York) and I'm seeing a very slow season. Granted, the big box stores just 7 miles away siphon the traffic from my small town Main Street location, but they've been there enough years that I shouldn't be feeling that effect as much now. Compounding that, my competitor down the street is closing, with prominently displayed 40% off signs in all the windows. With that discount, he's selling at cost. I can't compete with that.
Still, I think it's the economy. We coexisted on the same block for at least five years with little effect. Now, his rent increase because of his landlord's real estate tax increase forces the closing. I don't know of anyone who's income is keeping pace with escalating costs, especially those of gasoline and home heating oil. Whatever discretionary income the lower to middle class people (who I routinely see as customers) have is being eaten (literally) or spent on higher energy costs.
I'm a brick and mortar merchant with a busy web presence. The double whammy of bad weather on weekends and a most inopportune web site crash knocked my income down, too. That and the weak economy will leave my bottom line in the sorriest shape in years. But, I'll survive. My frugal nature of only spending what I make and paying off bills as they arrive serves me well this year.
One thing would make a difference. If everyone would just "Turn off the TV and read a Book!" the world, not just my pocketbook, would be in better shape!
Thanks for stopping by, Larry. I see you're publishing your book in chapters. Is there a specific article or two that deals just with reviewing the economy as it is?
Can you weather your competitor's closing? When will he have to actually close doors?
You also brought up a good point: The health of the economy is truly assessed from our own points of perspective and we change - or don't change - our behaviors relative to that perspective.
Interestingly, the bookstore that was in that nearby town and would have been his competition there, just closed after 30 years. The owners said they just weren't making enough money to make it worthwhile, and every year their net went down.
Thomas D, if you don't think the DOW is a good measure... what do you think of the cockroach theory of finance at work?