http://www.latimes.com/news/nation/nationnow/la-na-nn-hurricane-sandy-heads-to-northeast-20121027,0,3886956.story
So if you are wondering about the notion that Sandy is a bit odd, a hurricane menacing NYC in late October when the seas are supposed to be too cold to keep hurricanes alive, well, stop wondering. the answer is yes, climate change has some bearing on it. the REAL question is actually: how much? Nobody has the answer on that one.
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Comments: 25
Paul Beckwith explains: All storms veer to the right in the northern hemisphere due to the spinning of the earth (1 revolution per day). Except when there is a tilted high pressure region northward and it has to go left and there is a massive low pressure region left that sucks it there as well.
Why the high pressure ridge and massive low pressure? Because the jet stream is wavier and slower, a situation that is happening more and more often, because of massive sea ice decline this summer. Which is due to Arctic amplification feedbacks. Which in turn is due to rising greenhouse gases. Which is due to humans.
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2012/10/hurricane-sandy-moving-inland.html
"He concluded that hurricanes should not be the "poster" representing a human influence on climate. After his talk someone in the audience asked him what is wrong with making a connection between hurricanes and climate change if it gives the general public reason for concern about climate change. Chris responded that asserting such a connection can be easily shown to be incorrect and thus risks some of the trust that the public has in scientists to play things straight."
"Updated WMO Consensus Perspective on Tropical Cyclones"
"The paper reaches a number of interesting (but for those paying attention, ultimately unsurprising) conclusions. On North Atlantic hurricanes the paper states (emphasis added):
Hurricane counts (with no adjustments for possible missing cases) show a significant increase from the late 1800s to present, but do not have a significant trend from the 1850s or 1860s to present3. Other studies23 infer a substantial low-bias in early Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities (1851–1920), which, if corrected, would further reduce or possibly eliminate long-term increasing trends in basin-wide hurricane counts. Landfalling tropical storm and hurricane activity in the US shows no long-term increase (Fig. 2, orange series)20. Basin-wide major hurricane counts show a significant rising trend, but we judge these basin-wide data as unreliable for climate-trend estimation before aircraft reconnaissance in 1944.
The paper's conclusions about global trends might raise a few eyebrows.
In terms of global tropical cyclone frequency, it was concluded25 that there was no significant change in global tropical storm or hurricane numbers from 1970 to 2004, nor any significant change in hurricane numbers for any individual basin over that period, except for the Atlantic (discussed above). Landfall in various regions of East Asia26 during the past 60 years, and those in the Philippines27 during the past century, also do not show significant trends."
Oh! BTW!
Climate and weather are NOT the same.
And yet, scientists who actual study hurricanes, extreme weather, and climate change do, in fact, see a need for special concern over Sandy. These actual scientists also have been telling us for years that climate change is a problem. Unfortunately, there are plenty of non-scientists and fossil fuel supported lobbyists who deny the science.
Denial, however, doesn't change the facts.
The planet is warming and are burning of fossil fuels is the main reason.
As your comment below notes, there is "possible effect", not definite.
Yes I agree Matthew and more importantly so does the WMO.
Did you read the article Chris linked, Matthew? In particular, this part:
“The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question,” writes Kevin E. Trenberth, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo. “All weather events are affected by climate change because the environment in which they occur is warmer and moister than it used to be.”
The fact that the planet is warming is unequivocal. Such warming, especially since we seem politically unwilling to take responsibility for our actions, will continue. It also has significant consequences. Ignoring the reality of the science, and in particular denying the reality of the science by distracting into straw men, is simply irresponsible.
"Climate Extremes: Sandy a Result of Climate Change?"
Notice second peak towards the end of Oct?
a) Total number of U.S. tropical storm strikes: There were a total of 109 October TS or STS systems that made a U.S. landfall (or strike) during the aforementioned 161 year period. This equates to one October TS landfall every 1.48 years. Moreover, a full 36.9% of all "October" Atlantic Basin storms made landfall in the U.S.
Nope...Nuthin special!
I've read many times that weather is not climate, and Sandy is not unusual weather. So I'm not terribly concerned over one hurricane being a sign of harmful global warming. And everyone here seems to agree we don't know how much affect climate change has in the development of this one hurricane.
Indeed they do, Matthew. But since you recognize this point it is curious that you then say:
So I'm not terribly concerned over one hurricane being a sign of harmful global warming.
Recall what Trenberth said:
“The answer to the oft-asked question of whether an event is caused by climate change is that it is the wrong question,”...
Key words = "wrong question."
Scientists, and knowledgeable people in general, don't carp on whether we can attribute direct causation of any particular event to global warming. It simply isn't possible to do so, nor is it possible to deny that global warming has a direct impact on any particular event.
What Trenberth is saying, as does the article Chris cites and Sam Carana's excellent link in the first comment on this post, is that the unequivocal warming of this planet caused by our burning of fossil fuels does have significant impacts on extreme weather events. As the planet continues to warm this impact will become more and more severe and more and more obvious. We already can show statistical correlation. Over time, with no action on the part of humans to deal honestly with the unequivocal science, the correlation and the impacts will grow in significance.
That is the point. Any attempt to distract from that point do a disservice to America and to humanity.
"I've read many times that weather is not climate, and Sandy is not unusual weather. So I'm not terribly concerned over one hurricane being a sign of harmful global warming."
Matthew,
Yes of course weather is not climate and all of the research shows that neither the severity of storms or the frequency of their occurrence has changed much over the many decades.
But they (global warmists) have to point and say 'LOOK! global warming! At nearly every weather anomaly.
Hurricane Sandy is expected to barrel into the East Coast just as a cold front moves in from Canada, creating a hybrid "super storm." The fact that the Atlantic is spawning hurricanes in late autumn may have to do with rising sea surface temperatures, recent research indicates.
Water temperature in the mid-Atlantic this year is in fact 5 degrees Fahrenheit higher than average, contributing to “an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain,” Masters wrote on his blog.
It’s unclear what role, if any, climate change plays in boosting the temperature of the mid-Atlantic waters. But its possible effect on Hurricane Sandy, Masters said, signals what might await the Northeast over the coming years as ocean temperatures rise and hurricane season gets longer.
In other words, it's basic physics.
Lines for hundreds of miles in June 2012. He sees every weather event as an "Isolated" event because he has no memory. :)
From the article:
Hurricane Sandy is expected to barrel into the East Coast just as a cold front moves in from Canada, creating a hybrid "super storm." The fact that the Atlantic is spawning hurricanes in late autumn may have to do with rising sea surface temperatures, recent research indicates.
Water temperature in the mid-Atlantic this year is in fact 5 degrees Fahrenheit higher than average, contributing to “an unusually large amount of water vapor available to make heavy rain,” Masters wrote on his blog.
It’s unclear what role, if any, climate change plays in boosting the temperature of the mid-Atlantic waters. But its possible effect on Hurricane Sandy, Masters said, signals what might await the Northeast over the coming years as ocean temperatures rise and hurricane season gets longer.
In other words, it's basic physics.