Iraq – some questions now that the USA is out of there

If they get it together politically it might have been worth it.

Now they are already trying to set up a civil war, and dictatorship again. If that's how they end up in time then it would have been a tragic waste for America ...

The Iraq War could have been a strategic masterstroke if it had been handled differently. It could have proven that you couldn't ignore treaty obligations with the US, or that ultimately you have to be transparent between your dealings with the US and your own people, or simply that if and/or when we want to gain a strategic position, the US can take it by force. It could have accomplished any of these with the right messaging to go along with the declaration of war. Unfortunately, rather than making shrewd policy, President GW Bush worked to confirm his own bias rather than simply explain all of the good reasons to attack Iraq, he chased the only reason he could think of that would motivate all Americans to support an attack.

All of that said, much of these more important messages were conveyed, whether President Bush actually tried to express them or not. As long as we don't end up with a new Sunni dictator, I think we can all be reasonably pleased with the outcome. The Kurds won't allow the Shiites to get too far out of control, and the Shiites need the Kurds to keep the Sunnis in check.

Without the unfortunate and distasteful habit of employing 'consultants' like Blackwater, the US would have had to recruit and deploy tens of thousands of additional troops (a political no-no when Mr Donald Rumsfeld guaranteed we could accomplish the mission with so few). I reserve a special place in my own hell for that man. It simply wouldn't have happened. And the lack of those troops would have been telling.

I think perhaps the one biggest mistake was poor planning in the "what if" category so to say in what happens after the military defeat of Saddam. I think the administration was caught way off guard on the what seemed the complete dissolution/break down of the Iraqi armed forces and law enforcement etc., and the resulting chaos of human nature that followed. Not counting on having to be anything from traffic cops to dispute counselors as it were for everything all at once, with no internal authority figures to lean on, and not having the resources or training for it all with the troops there at the time.

I have said for years (since Day 1 of the US invasion of Iraq, actually), that this war was a cynical use of American youth, blood and treasure for George Bush's personal desire to kill Saddam Hussein. I have also said since Day 1, that as soon as the American Military left, Iraq would come apart like a trick box. Blackwater and other mercenaries be damned... THEY are not a presence that will discourage Shi'ite/Sunni civil war.

Everything Ajatasutra said, above, may be true. It's also irrelevant. Our invasion guaranteed only the ultimate complete and utter destruction of Iraq, and it's dissolution upon our leaving... and it has already begun. The President has had an arrest warrant issued for the Vice President, who, only by the greatest coincidence is of the other RELIGIOUS "party." If the Kurds step in, it will only hasten the shooting part of this horrid business.

Iraq is OVER, DONE, FINI, KAPUT! By this time next year, Iraq will be a stumbling, bumbling nest of murderers, with the general population caught in the crossfire.

Can ANYONE give me a reason to believe I'm wrong in the slightest degree?

The only question is whether the 'suspended animation' caused by threats between the three legs of the stool will prove counterweight enough. The Kurds and the Sunnis are powerful enough together to reign in the Shiites. The Shiites and the Sunnis are powerful enough to keep Kurdistan part of Iraq. The Shiites and the Kurds together will prevent a new Baath party from arising. As long as these alliances work, the state will stay together (albeit completely ineffectual, precisely what all three parties want from a central Iraqi state). If the pressure to 'get something accomplished' ever overcomes this suspension, then we'll see civil war.

I'm not sure we've reached that tipping point yet. All of the major politicians in power now in Iraq are corrupt in some way, shape, or form. If they decide to bring one down, their competition will bring them down in exchange. We'll see a high turnover for a while, but, as long as the big militant players think that this game keeps the state weak, they'll let it go. You'll see bombings by crazies, yeah. But that's never going to stop (it hasn't in the US after all).

thanks for sharing