Even Money’s NBA Picks November 28, 2009: Trail Blazers vs Jazz

Trail Blazers vs Bobcats is my marquee match-up for today’s NBA Picks. It is a battle of size against self-control - featuring Greg Oden and Carlos Boozer. There is disharmony in the Portland Trail Blazers' world, due to roster depth and the roles assigned to players.

Main example: It started this summer when they were unable to garner the services of their targeted free agents, then continued during the summer and then into the season when newly-signed free agent Andre Miller was designated the leader of the second unit. After starting the season on the bench and with the team struggling at 2-3, Miller became a starter. The move made an impact as the team then surged to 7 wins and just 2 losses.

Miller is now back as a reserve and the team is 3-1 since switching back with the wins coming against (Timberwolves, Bulls and Nets); and last night's loss to the Memphis Grizzlies.

Portland fancies itself a championship caliber team but truthfully they are average. Can a 12-win team be considered average? Yes, because Portland has no true impressive win this season, in that they have not beaten a team on an upward swing. Their best wins were early in the season against the Oklahoma Thunder and San Antonio Spurs.

My question mark for the Blazers has to do with their inconsistent scoring output in wins unless playing the Minnesota Timberwolves and a recent running of the Chicago Bulls. They also shoot a low percentage while relying heavily on 3pt'ers and Free Throws. Strong rebounding and excellent shot-blocking offset the scoring droughts.

What does this mean for the Jazz and Carlos Boozer?

Though early in the season, tonight’s is a statement game for the Utah Jazz. They have an ill-fitting roster that became such when Carlos Boozer decided not to opt out of his contract. Things became more complicated when their up-and-coming Power Forward, Paul Millsap signed an offer sheet with the Trail Blazers, which they matched.
Boozer produces at his normal clip of “20-10” for the season. For the Jazz the reality is whether to get value for Boozer by February’s trade deadline or chase the 8th seed in the playoffs.

They have very little depth at the wing positions (shooting guard and small forward), as C. J. Miles, Kyle Korver, and Matt Harpring suffered injuries before season's start. The Jazz have stayed afloat mainly because of their field goal shooting percentage, which is highlighted by the fact that they are last in the league in 3pt'ers attempted.

NBA PICKS:

• Portland, Over - Size matters in this contest. If the Trail Blazers hit their 3pters, it will be a laughter.
• Charlotte, Over - Last night's low-scoring 4th quarter raises my eyebrows but I'm convinced Bobcats will continue to threaten triple digits nightly.
• Dallas, Over - Mavericks will run too much for Shaq and Big Z to be factors.
• Orlando, Under - Bucks are missing Bogut. Look for Dwight, Gortat and any other Magic who wants to score inside to do so.
• Golden State, Under - Lakers are not going to let this be a free for all.

Yesterday’s Results: Spread 5Wins 7Losses; O/U  7Wins 4Losses

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Let’s discuss your picks and/or how you see these match-ups.

http://www.covers.com/sports/nba/nba_main.aspx?t=0 @2:30 pm11/28/09