By Joseph D’Aleo
NCDC has compiled the October temperatures and it ended up the 3rd coldest in 115 years. As we have shown it was cold over almost all the lower 48. Indeed only Florida came in above normal. There is no press release out yet but it should be interesting.
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October with a mean of 50.8F was behind only 1976 with 50.7F and 1925 with 49.4F.
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Also the University of Alabama global temperature is out and it is down this month. Hadley came in late for September but it was down. The trends since 2002 continue down for both even as CO2 rise.
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The cold came just a few months after a cold July where 6 states were coldest in 115 years, four 2nd coldest and two 3rd coldest.
US was not alone. In the Southern Hemisphere, New Zealand had the coldest October in 64 years. Hat tip: Rod Van Koughnet, geophysicist and skeptic.
Temperatures may pop globally with the second surge in El Nino the next two months. A warm pool (depression of the thermocline) induced by a westerly wind burst last month with a negative Southern Oscillation Index has been pressing east. A prior surge had produced a first peak in El Nino in July. It weakened after with a cooling of the water in the eastern Pacific as the first warm surge was mixed out and cold water upwelling increased off South America. The same thing will happen after the El Nino comes to a second larger peak in early December. Typically in cold PDO phases, El Ninos, are truncated - that is they end early and tend to be weaker (up to moderate strength). See the similarity to other years in this post here.
When you look at other years in cold PDO with a quiet sun and transition to an easterly QBO (Quasi-Biennial Oscillation) you get a cold winter especially in the east.
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A stratospheric warming is more likely in these conditions, favoring high latitude blocking and cold air intrusions. We have seen much more blocking this year in part due to El Nino, in part to low solar and in part to high latitude volcanoes (Redoubt and Sarychev). See how a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) correlate with winter temperatures.
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Big east coast storms for DC, New York or Boston are very likely in westerly QBO winters but not easterly. Since we will be transitioning from west to east, one might think we may still manage a few decent coastal storms and maybe a blockbuster, if the cold comes early and the QBO is slow to flip. Often in easterly winters, the snow is actually heavier south (like Norfolk).
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A negative NAO though is favorable for east coast storms and snow. This graph is for Boston, New York and DC are similar.
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See more here.
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Comments: 33
8-)
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Lets hope we are not entering into another ice age as we would be much better able to handle warming than cooling! ;-)
Thanks
In other words, they really have no idea what they are talking about.
But it was a propagandist that suggested that they stop calling it global warming and switch to climate change!
They may have no idea of what they are talking about but that doesn't mean that they are stupid.
- and that's a bad thing?
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Not a bad thing at all!
www.Konaweb.com
scroll down to the bottom of the page to see the webcam.
Do I remember something about "Don't mess with Mother Nature?''
I thought your theory interesting so I looked around.
Seems that there are others that agree with you, it's just that in this article they suggest it is when Jupiter is closest to the sun when sunspot activity is at it's lowest due to Jupiter's affect.
If this is indeed the case we can look forward to continued sun spotless years and cooling.
However, I'm aware that Jupiter is beyond the furthest out and headed back closer in the past few years. However the cooling started a bit before the 2007 time frame and is continuing on now because there is a better over-all balance of the four large planets, and both the global warming as well as global cooling take some time, like years here on this Earth of ours.
Nothing in that ballpark will be fast.
Thanks for stopping by.
I still believe the Climate change is a valid theory, not in the way of the warming nut cases, but because it is a natural cycle, and it fits what we are seeing. The Us and a few other Countries are getting cooler, and some others are getting warmer, while others are seeing limited change at all.
The Earth has operated this way well before man, and will continue well after man. The difference now is, we are able to record what is going on, where there are only geological records from before. So many things are new to us, and changing the facts to fit yhour desires is not the way to learn. Thisw is exactly what the Global warming fanatics are doing, because they cannot find the facts to back themselves up.
That is what climate change is all about, the natural cyclical nature of our planet's climate.
The danger we face from the Global warmists is their promoting of carbon taxes.
Be sure to pass this video around, it's one of the best I've seen, it gives a common sense explanation of C02 in our atmosphere, and how silly it is to think that we can effect global warming by restricting our carbon output.
Thanks for your input Dan.
I didn't realize that about water vapor and the carbon count
Thanks
Thank-You for posting this.
You are welcome
Climate Control Freaks!