Election Day November 2009: NY-23rd...

The special election to replace Rep. John McHugh of New York's 23rd congressional district has gotten a great deal of attention - much more than these congressional races typically get. The candidates who will vie for the spot on this November 2009 Election Day are Bill Owens (D), Dede Scozzafava (R)*, and Doug Hoffman (Conservative Party). (McHugh was tapped by President Obama for Army Secretary post, hence the vacant seat.)

For one, Scozzafava dropped out of the NY-23 race a mere four days before Election Day, and did not throw her support to the Conservative (although not Republican) candidate Hoffman but rather to her Democrat opponent Owens.

For another, Hoffman has lead in polls leading up to today - it's rare for a third-party candidate to stand a favorable chance of winning (although obviously special circumstances given Scozzafava's dropping out), let alone be the favorite.

Nate Silver over at fivethirtyeight.com gives the nod to Hoffman, while acknowledging that special elections in general, and this one in particular, are notoriously difficult to predict. Polling is all over the place. Silver's got several excellent posts on this election as well as others.

*Scozzafava dropped out of the race but is technically still on the ballot. Which is odd.

Comments: 5

Erik Edson Nov 3, 2009, 5:36pm EST

Odd but not unusual. I believe that's how it normally works... the names on the ballot really can't change after a certain date. Even when a candidate dies.

Mike R. Nov 3, 2009, 10:30pm EST

I guess since she withdrew so close to Election Day it makes sense she'd still be on there. Still kind of odd that she could be receiving votes as a listed candidate.