President Obama’s approval ratings continue to decline. I attribute this phenomenon largely to the waning support of two very different groups; moderates and the Democratic Party’s left wing.
Running for president, Obama convinced the former that he was a pragmatist, maybe a Clinton who could keep his zipper up. After eight years of Bush, Clinton looked pretty good. The Democratic left was sure that he would end the war in Iraq and usher in a new dawning of the Age of Aquarius. Both groups thought he would reintroduce transparency and accountability.
Moderates are concerned about never ending record deficits, Obama’s social agenda and Administration intervention in the private sector, particularly the auto and financial industries. This concern was eloquently expressed by David Brooks in The New York times:
“We sympathize with a lot of the things that President Obama is trying to do. We like his investments in education and energy innovation. We support health care reform that expands coverage while reducing costs.”
“But the Obama budget is more than just the sum of its parts. There is, entailed in it, a promiscuous unwillingness to set priorities and accept trade-offs. There is evidence of a party swept up in its own revolutionary fervor — caught up in the self-flattering belief that history has called upon it to solve all problems at once.”
“… We end up with an agenda that is unexceptional in its parts but that, when taken as a whole, represents a social-engineering experiment that is entirely new.”
…
“Those of us who consider ourselves moderates — moderate-conservative, in my case — are forced to confront the reality that Barack Obama is not who we thought he was. His words are responsible; his character is inspiring. But his actions betray a transformational liberalism that should put every centrist on notice.”
At the same time, the left feels betrayed.
The withdrawal from Iraq doesn’t seem to be going much faster than it would have had Bush stayed in office and some claim that Obama is now playing hardball with anti war Democrats. The gay community is particularly angry over Obama’s support of the Defense of Marriage act and his inaction on don’t ask don’t tell.
With great fanfare, the President announced the closing of Gitmo, a move also supported by John McCain, but seems to have a hard time making it happen. The Administration has now admitted that the US will continue to detain some prisoners indefinitely without trial and has argued that detainees held at the Bagram air base in Afghanistan have no right to challenge their detention in U.S. courts.
For all practical purposes, Obama has adopted the Bush Administration stand on warrantless wiretapping.
Meanwhile The Administration’s lapses in transparency have come under attack from the Cato Institute, the ACLU, Amnesty International, the Electronic Frontier Foundation, Salon.Com, Newsweek, the Christian Science Monitor, the Huffington Post and Jon Stewart.
And, of course, there is the economy.
Cato@Liberty: Obama’s Transparency Average Drops
Christian Science Monitor: On White House visitor list, Obama’s ‘transparency’ is murky
The Daily Show: Cheney Predacted
The Daily Show: That's Great, Now Fix the Economy
Electronic Frontier Foundation: Obama's Transparency Promise: We're Still Waiting
The Huffington Post: Obama Whither Transparency?
Newsweek: Obama Closes Door on Openness
New York Times: David Brooks, A Moderate Manifesto
New York Times: David Brooks, And the Angels Rejoyce
New York Times: Obama Poll Sees Doubt on Budget and Health Care
Politicsusa.com: ACLU and Amnesty International Both Hammer Obama for Reversal on Detainee Photos
Rasmussen Reports: Daily Presidential Tracking Poll July 2, 2009
Salon.Com: Obama and transparency: judge for yourself
Wall Street Journal: Public Wary of Deficit, Economic Intervention
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Comments: 20
Why would you want to be wrong?
For the record. I wish he'd back off on the wiretapping thing, and I wish he'd move faster on the Iraq withdrawal, but overall I think he's doing just fine.
Yeah, Chuck thinks he's doing just fine.
I am no fan of polls but they can give some inkling to what people are thinking if doen correctly.
That Obama's poll numbers would shrink of course is normal. Disillusionment, reality, and all normally happen after that short honeymoon. Obama has been luckier than any president in my lifetime in that he has still close to uniform media support. That has glossed over much.
Obama is likely losing moderates/indies. I believed he lost many indies rather quickly with his debt driven plans and economic takeovers but the moderates were willfuly blind I think and only are reluctantly leaving him. No way his hard core fans on the left will levae though, where will they go? They are more wedded to the Dem party than religious fundies to the Repubs. They won't do what many of the religious did in 2008 and stay home out of disgust. This is the first time they have had their hands on the whip for real and they won't let go easily.
The country is not happy and the brief period of hope has crashed rather hard. Unfortunately, most people will stay with their parties rather than realizing those same parties are the source of the problem. Obama is only a symptom.
Ooooh....NOW you like "polls"! ROTFLMAO
Didn't say I liked them Spartan. How would you come up with that? I did say and have never denied that sometimes you can get some inkling of opinions with them but I just don't trust them on principle whether they support a position of mine or not.
According to pollingreport.com, which tracks a number of different polls, Obama's job rating and approvals remain in the very high 50s to mid 60s range while his disapproval rate hover from the mid 20s to the mid 30s. This is significantly at odds with the graph you show above, which only tracks the "stronly approve" and "strongly disapprove" numbers.
While a number of the reasons you provide for why his poll numbers are declining are valid points, I think you have given an exaggerated impression of how much his popularity is declining.
Given the urgency, importance and dire nature of many of the inherited files Obama is juggling, from the wars to the economy, and the historically controversial nature of his health care reform drive, he remains remarkably popular so far.
Rory
I wasn't deliverately trying to understate President Obama's popularity. I picked the Rasmusssen poll partly because it had a nice graphic and partly because it gives a final "score". I am much more interested in the trends and possible expalinations than final score.
One thing that is interesting about President Obama is that he is more popular than his policies. This is reflected in the web site you cited (pollingreport.com) when comparing favorability ratings (63/32) vs Job Ratings (61/37) vs Obama Administration (56/41) and is consistent with David Brooks statement that "His words are responsible; his character is inspiring. But his actions betray a transformational liberalism that should put every centrist on notice.”
And yet, liberals are complaining that he is "Bush-lite".
Yep!
Instead of saying "Rasmussen" you could have just given the truth and said, "Fox News poll"! Rasmussen is the FAVORITE right wing pollster among those just the right of Attila the Hun!
Spartan,
Since I don't watch Fox News, I wouldn't know that.
at least they're meeting in the middle...
Hey, M.M.....
The MONTH-BY-MONTH APPROVAL INDEX is a heck of a lot more interesting......as well as quite revealing....
You are correct!
Well, he did have a long way to go down
Rory what would you think of a president that mimics his predecessor and lies every step of the way? Has anyone seen that transparency yet? Has it come upon us so fast that we can't recognise it?
Jack, I appreciate the reasons for your objections or criticism to the Obama administration. I, however, feel that the ship of state takes time to turn, that Obama has many "urgent" files on his desk and that he has to spend his political capital wisely. I am willing to give him more time before I dismiss him so completely.
The dissapproval rate should be way higher than that. He is spending us to death fatser than Bush was. Of course Congress shares much blame too, which makes me wonder what their approval rating is.