A new report says that climate change is already happening, and and its effects are on track to get much worse in the coming century. The report, "Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States," was released today (June 16th) by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), which "coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society." Begun as a presidential initiative in 1989 by George H.W. Bush, and then mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606), the USGCRP called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change." Thirteen Departments and Agencies participate in the USGCRP.
Key findings from today's report include:
1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced.
Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. (p. 13)
2. Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow.
Climate-related changes are already observed in the United States and its coastal waters. These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons, lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt, and alterations in river flows. These changes are projected to grow. (p. 27)
3. Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase.
Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. (p. 41-106, 107-152)
4. Climate change will stress water resources.
Water is an issue in every region, but the nature of the potential impacts varies. Drought, related to reduced precipitation, increased evaporation, and increased water loss from plants, is an important issue in many regions, especially in the West. Floods and water quality problems are likely to be amplified by climate change in most regions. Declines in mountain snowpack are important in the West and Alaska where snowpack provides vital natural water storage. (p. 41, 129, 135, 139)
5. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged.
Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. (p. 71)
6. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge.
Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk of erosion and flooding, especially along the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts, Pacific Islands, and parts of Alaska. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. (p. 111, 139, 145, 149)
7. Threats to human health will increase.
Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. (p. 89)
8. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses.
Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. (p. 99)
9. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems.
There are a variety of thresholds in the climate system and ecosystems. These thresholds determine, for example, the presence of sea ice and permafrost, and the survival of species, from fish to insect pests, with implications for society. With further climate change, the crossing of additional thresholds is expected. (p. 76, 82, 115, 137, 142)
10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today.
The amount and rate of future climate change depend primarily on current and future human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases and airborne particles. Responses involve reducing emissions to limit future warming, and adapting to the changes that are unavoidable. (p. 25, 29)
There is a slide show that goes along with the report. Check it out here.
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Comments: 43
I have to say I'm not surprised. This sounds like a pretty comprehensive book.
Eeekkkk - but we need our TVs to work, so burn more coal !!!
(I was being a snot)
Acknowledged, Peter. :)
Check out the slide show that goes along with the report.
A frightening list of bad news for earth and everything on it. I think the disease increase - especially those borne by animals and insects whose ranges will expand - will be the biggest surprise. A scary future.
We often don't consider all of the ramifications of a changing climate.
I seem to remember an old joke about the Sahara "forest."
This one seems like a no-brainer:
10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today.
One reason that many deny that the change is occurring is the money and effort that it would take to slow it.
The other deniers are not well informed.
The science is the science. What we choose to do about it is our decision. Too often people confuse arguments based on an unwillingness to take action with the actual science that concludes a problem exists and some action is necessary.
Eeeek - on BBC TV news I just saw SO MANY filthy smokestacks in China.
They do have a few over there. And guess where much of it ends up? (Hint, think Washington State)
this information is timely- it applies to the argument going on regarding the cap and trade legislation before congress. The denial squad and its lackeys in the Competitive Enterprise Institute say ooh, unbearable expense, american families will all have to spend added thousands per year on electricity, gasoline, etc. It seems like a lie to me, more likely to be a couple hundred bucks a year, less than we spend on lattes and beer. Besides, looking at the mess you listed above, I think, what the heck, electricity prices are the least of our problems.
The denial squad is going to home in on one of your bullets. They are going to see the phrase "longer growing season", and start yelling, see, climate change GOOD! It's absurd.
So what is the solution, David? I think I am doing quite a bit personally. I don't drive and use mass transit here in Costa Rica. I do not have television, washer or dryer, and wash my clothes by hand. I cook from scratch using the delicious fresh meats, veggies, and produce here. I shop at the thrift stores for clothing. Am I just an anonmaly and most Americans think in live caveman style? Not at all I have a very nice apartment and use my crock pot and steamer a lot. I want to know what the solution is on a personal level and not just blaming the government.
The solution is to change the way we do business. Please see www.nopom.info With that solution we will take actions which will help. Without that solution, we will destroy our environment as many societies before us have done and for similar reasons.
climate change is really not a good thing. You recall the seven plagues of Egypt from that old Charlton Heston movie "The Ten Commandments"? Like that, but not so nice.
But it's not like "Day after Tomorrow"- it does not happen overnight. If it did, we would take it seriously. But if it takes a lifetime(it does), it's like HIV- ignore it, who cares, got too much on my plate.
Vincent- you are not living like an american, let's face it. Your carbon footprint in Costa Rica is tiny. The electricity generation per capita is tiny compared to the USA.
problem is, humans of entire planet wish to live like USA folk. Reality: if they get their wish, human race is doomed, not enought resources for that.
What's more worrisome is Chinese pollution. With four times our population, they may have less per capita emissions, but it only takes one-fourth of their population polluting at our per capita rate to equal US pollution levels. Www.Motherjones.com had an excellent article on this subject.
The US is by far the worst in terms of per capita emissions, but China is gaining on us. Its economy is growing faster than any on record, and they are making the same mistakes we did in taking unrestrained growth while ignoring the costs to the environment, long-term sustainability, etc. They show signs of thinking ahead, just as we do, but at the same time they need the rapid growth to continue so their people don't stop to think about civil rights, etc.
No question that they and India (and others) need to be part of the solution as well as the US.
worrisome, James. but not more worrisome, equally worrisome. We have the power to control our carbon emissions. we lack the power to control theirs. if we do not lead by example, they will not follow our example.
I don't understand why so many people are denying climate change and global warming. The proof is staring jus right in the face.
Wow... some good information. Thankyou David.
his one seems like a no-brainer:
10. Future climate change and its impacts depend on choices made today.
yes indeed David, and in that regard here in Virginia we just started building another billion dollar coal fired electricity plant, and are talking about building another. If we follow through on those, wasted money. Just going to have to knock them down in a couple years and replace them with solar or wind or nuclear.
Unfortunately coal is vey plentiful, and still makes up about 50% of our energy source. I'm not convinced that "clean coal" is actually clean, but coal is something we have to deal with one way or another.
Well yeah, sure, but hey, you know, what about our rights as Americans to pollute the planet as much as we like? I'm pretty sure that's in the Constitution or something. Whichever amendment that guarantees my right to pursue happiness, no matter what.
I always marvel at the idea of "my rights" without regard for how those rights also apply to everyone else. So my right to build a junk car storage area on the front lawn of my house is limited by my neighbor's right to "pursue happiness." We don't exist in a vacuum, and even if we think no one has a right to tell me how much I can pollute the planet, the Constitution protects my neighbors right to continue to have a planet on which to live.
Well said, David! Everyone should remember that!
right Wil- that is god given, I think.... I did catch your sarcasm, and I share your view. I think some of the anti-China and India stuff is from that. We have the right, they don't. If we had the right, so do they.
Unfortunately, if we all do it, goodby third rock from the Sun.
Reminds me of "Tragedy of the Commons."
where do we go for our polution gas masks???
Thanks!
Grasshoppers in the Alaskan tundra...imagine that
Have these scientificos been to Jersey lately...as lately as, say...yesterday?
"Powerful storms carrying rain and hail pounded the Tri-State area Monday, dropping inches of ice and snow in the suburbs -- even requiring a snow plow in some parts of New Jersey.
A massive hail storm blew through Washington Township, N.J., forcing residents to break out their shovels to clear driveways and streets of the dime-sized pellets.
A flood advisory is in effect for Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens Counties in New York until 7 p.m. Minor flooding is expected in poor drainage areas.
June has logged a soggy and cold start to the normally hot and humid New York City summer. Central Park has recorded more than 5 inches of rain already this month."
http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/June-Feels---and-Looks----A-Lot-Like-Winter.html
"Have these scientificos been to Jersey lately...as lately as, say...yesterday?"
If I recall my geography, New Jersey is the Northeast region as defined by the report. You'll find that your weather reports don't contradict the predictions for the northeast at all.
Northeast region
But as you know, Felix, any particular day's weather isn't relevant to long-term climate changes. Just because today is rainy doesn't mean tomorrow can't be sunny, and vice versa.
Well, that certainly explains nothing.
Felix - Your comment lists weather reports for New Jersey and New York, which are not inconsistent with the report I cite. Perhaps you can explain why you think the weather reports you cited somehow disagree with the scientific report, because it isn't evident.
I think it's hard to believe all this considering the local weatherman is usually wrong 90% of the time. ;)
Well, Mary, I think you'll find that the local weathermen (who generally simply read the information provided by the national weather services), are actually correct the vast majority of time for short-term predictions.
That said, any particular day's weather isn't meaningful to long-term trends. Today could be quite sunny and tomorrow quite rainy and it would mean nothing with respect to the average trends 1, 10, 50 or 100 years from now. Climate is a function of those long-term trends.
For an excellent recent power point lecture on the worsening climate emergency by top US climate scientist Professor John Holdren (Professor of Environmental Policy and Professor of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University; Director, Woods Hole Research Center; former president, American Association for the Advancement of Science, AAAS; President Barack Obama’s chief science adviser), see “The Science of Climate Disruption” (2008) – a summary of the basis of man-made global warming and the climatic disruption that has already occurred [32 pages]: http://www.usclimateaction.org/userfiles/JohnHoldren.pdf .
For a detailed course on global warming (and incorporating data from Dr Holdren and other top climate scientists) by Dr Gideon Polya (biochemist, teacher, La Trobe University and U3A, Melbourne) see “Global Warming, Climate Emergency Course” (2009), 52 pages of detailed course notes for an 8 x 2 hour course on global warming, the present climatic disruption and what we can do about it : http://sites.google.com/site/yarravalleyclimateactiongroup/global-warming--global-emergency-course .
Thanks for the links, Gideon. Holdren has been speaking about the fact that climate change has already been occurring for some time, well before his appointment by Obama as science advisor. Based on his appointments, Obama has recognized the issue and put people in place with the experience needed to help determine the best policy options for dealing with it. More easily said than done.
Rita- agreed. This will take time. It sort of makes the task of steering the Titanic away from an iceberg look easy by comparison. All the more reason to be ashamed of the fact that we wasted the last 8 years.
It's a scarey thought, but we only brought it on ourselves. Now it's up to us to at least try to fix it- if we possibly can...
Certainly there is a lot to be done.