A couple weeks ago I wrote a post expressing my surprise that local gas prices had dropped from almost 4 dollars a gallon to 1.66 in my area. (Right now the price is 1.79) I never expected to see these low prices return. Had China and India decided they did not need much oil after all? It just did not make sense to me.
Turns out that it should not have made sense. Back in the summer of 2008 when oil prices were the highest, these were the market conditions:
1. The demand for oil was falling.
2. The supply of oil was growing.
Both these factors should have made the price of gasoline drop, but the opposite occurred. Why? Well, it was supply and demand but not the supply and demand of the product (oil) but the supply of the futures on the commodities market. Sometimes these futures might trade over 20 times in one day.
So why did the price of gas fall? Because when the rest of Wall Street flopped, oil did too. Gas prices went the same direction as the stocks in your 401k folder.
Where will prices go in the future? Of course, I don't know, but my guess is that we will see gas at around 2 dollars a gallon for the next year.
What do you think?


Comments: 37
(Keep in mind, that the majority of global oil production and refining is ultimately controlled by less than 50 people.)
2. Speculation (the other kind): How possible is it that the high energy prices were the "tipping point" for the Crash? I'm thinking as follows:
A. Housing boom = many people's finances "Fully Engaged" buying Big Houses and living fat off of HELOCs.
B. Figure conservatively two (30 gallon) tanks of gas per week in the (leased) Escalade, sometimes three. Fuel prices double adding $500/month to overhead (plus increased utilities, etc.)
C. Consumers living check-to-check start maxing out credit cards, queuing for HELOCs, and inevitably missing payments.
D. Ashes, ashes; all fall down.
I have no intentions of hurting anybody's feeling here.. I am just telling my thoughts regarding this to you.. if you don't like it then feel free to ignore me..
Way to go, drivers.
Another article that I read today said that the prices dropped after talks of investigations started to rise and be seriously considered.
Of course the drop in consumer demand may have had something to do with it also. Oil Futures wouldn't be worth as much as they were paid for, if people continued to lower their consumption.
I like the new gas prices however :)
Thanks for posting to Goldfish Post All!