Kirby Daley, senior strategist at Newedge Group does not believe the U.S. markets have clocked in at the bottom. Here he tells CNBC how to identify the bottom in the equity markets and the economy.
Daley's bottom line: Recovery hinges on consumer spending. Look for the bottom of the economy to come six months after an uptick in consumer spending.
Note that Daley says to check the federal flow of funds report for an "uptick in the annual rate of change of the aggregate net worth of the consumer." You'll find the raw, annual numbers on the Federal Reserve's B.100 Balance Sheet of Households and Nonprofit Organizations, page 102, line 42. The net worth category hasn't been this low since 2003.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis tabulates consumer spending's ups and downs. (Here's its report for October: http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/pinewsrelease.htm.) If you're following Daley's input, then it looks like the economy should rebound after six months of positive numbers in the "Personal consumption expenditures" category. Note that that category hasn't been in the positive since June.