The Middle East Times ran a "special report" November 12 saying that while some not-so-welcome endorsements for an Obama presidency came in after the November 4 presidential election, including support from Hamas and Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, one actor that was notably silent was Al Qaeda.
The Times says, "The total absence of comments from the United States' number one enemy, whom the Bush administration has been trying to track down and eradicate ever since the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon in Washington, is somewhat strange. One would think that this might have been a good opportunity for bin Laden to gloat. After all, he outlasted his nemesis."
But then the report offers an explanation for the silence: that al Qaeda might be "at a loss for words." It is unlikely that bin Laden's terrorist organization would openly support a candidate (I'm talking top leadership like bin Laden and Zawahiri, not lower level commanders or foot soldiers). Kim Ghattas, a BBC correspondent, told the Times that "Al-Qaida's top leaders have been silent so far though some expect them to claim Mr. Obama's election as their victory, and a defeat of President Bush's policies." But, Ghattas says, al Qaeda "...may have to rethink how they deal with the ‘Great Satan,' if global goodwill persists."
It is unlikely, in my opinion, that bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri are at a loss for words. It is much more likely that they are weighing their options and evaluating their strategy. Bin Laden's original intent was to draw the United States into a major conflict in the heart of the Middle East. He succeeded in that endeavor. The second part of his strategy, though, was to effect a mass uprising of the ummah, the Muslim community, against secular governments in the region allied with or cooperating with the Americans. This part of the strategy has failed. I have no doubt that the way ahead is being reviewed.
The Times mentions Vice President-elect Joe Biden's warning of a "test" in the first six months of an Obama administration, but that timeline is flexible depending on al Qaeda's planning cycle. Al Qaeda's senior leaders are incredibly patient. The attacks on the World Trade Center in 1993 and 2001 were meticulously planned for years. The other factor to consider is the operational capability of the senior leadership. For the last 7 years, bin Laden and Zawahiri have done little more than look over their shoulders for American troops hunting them down.
Al Qaeda as it existed on 9/11 is no longer. The terrorist group has decentralized into regional and local groups and cells that are largely disconnected from the original al Qaeda leadership.
Does this mean al Qaeda will not launch an attack on the United States proper? No one knows for sure. But attempting to read bin Laden's intent is a bit off base without considering fully the current strategy and capability of the original al Qaeda.
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Comments: 10
Though they have taken a licking in recent years, if given the opportunity and funding, they (or similar) will try again in some manner to hurt us as big as they can.
They said it, not you, Greg, but the effort--whether measured in troops, lives, or billions of dollars--has flagged considerably since 2003. We're escorting convoys around Iraq, in the main, not confronting the enemy on the Pakistani frontier. In numbers.
MET (your quote): "After all, he outlasted his nemesis."
Do we really know that? Some observers are pretty sure he's dead, because we haven't seen or heard any credibly-recent AV from the little s*** for years.
Greg: "The terrorist group has decentralized into regional and local groups and cells..."
Always was. It is the ability of OBL to connect and provide top-level financing and assign operatives like KSM to engineer selected attacks. I don't see much improvement in the risk, because even one KSM-like goon can do a lot of damage. As much as I want to see al Qaeda eliminated, I see the failure to secure targets of opportunity in the US as contributing the most to the risk equation today.
Greg: "The second part of his strategy, though, was to effect a mass uprising of the ummah..."
This reminds me of the delusional Charles Manson thinking that his violent acts could trigger a race war between Blacks and whites in the US. What these two monsters don't understand is that most people don't hate. Most people want to live their lives and let their neighbors get on with their own lives as well.
"...but the effort--whether measured in troops, lives, or billions of dollars--has flagged considerably since 2003."
Agree, but as I've argued on Gather before, capturing or killing bin Laden won't accomplish anything in a global war on terror. It would be good for national satisfaction, but not much else.
"Do we really know that? Some observers are pretty sure he's dead, because we haven't seen or heard any credibly-recent AV from the little s*** for years."
If I recall correctly, the CIA has verified his voice on audio tapes within the last year. No video, though.
"Always was. It is the ability of OBL to connect and provide top-level financing and assign operatives like KSM to engineer selected attacks."
The key point is that OBO and Zawahiri aren't in command and control of anything anymore. That means there aren't any real (with the exception of Hezbollah in Latin America) strong terrorist groups with global reach.
"What these two monsters don't understand is that most people don't hate. Most people want to live their lives and let their neighbors get on with their own lives as well."
This point is often lost on people who wrongly associate Muslims in general with terrorism. In reality the guys committed to Islamic fanaticism are a tiny, tiny minority of the Muslim population.
quote from a guy thanking somebody who left America in shambles.
"I just don't think about him anymore (Bin Laden) He's not important anymore"
Bush admitting it was just an excuse to invade Iraq.
Do you still think Bush has done a great job?
I think with Bush that we are alot safer as for BIn Laden not commmenting... I dont think it matters to him, who is our president... He will turn on this one too..
Really? How do they know this? Do the soldiers you associate with have access to Bush's inner circle?