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by David K.
Member since:
April 29, 2007

Who will be in Charge of Energy Policy in Congress?

November 09, 2008 08:06 AM EST (Updated: November 09, 2008 08:27 AM EST)
views: 429 | rating: 10/10 (13 votes) | comments: 124

The Executive isn't the only branch of government ordering up moving vans.  A good number of long time members of Congress have retired, and of course there will be turnovers in seats as a result of this past Tuesday's election.  Add to that the fact that President-elect Obama is likely to tap several current members of both the House and Senate to serve in his Administration.  Rahm Emanuel, who just won reelection to the House before being tapped as Obama's Chief of Staff, is just the first to leave an option seat behind him.  So there will be some jockeying for positions going on over the next month or two.

But another trend (okay, not sure if it's a trend, or a couple of cases) is the removal or attempted removal of some of the older members from their vaunted positions of power on various committees.  I had noticed this early on and then this morning saw this article on the Politico web site: No Congress for Old Men.

Mainly the article deals with two high profile cases.  After serving on the Senate Appropriations Committee for 50 years, Senator Robert Byrd of West Virginia has voluntarily stepped down from his chairmanship.  Voluntary is a relative term in government, and it was clear that he would be forced out if he didn't opt to do so willingly.  At 90+ years old, it was time to release the chairmanship to someone who can more effectively run the Committee.  This is arguably the most important committee in the Senate since it handles the money...No appropriations, no program (even if the program exists on paper).  I'm not sure who will take over as chair, though there are quite a few well known names serving on the committee, most of whom are returning for the next Congress (though there are a few others that have either retired or been defeated [or in the case of Ted Stevens, might still win his election only to be forced out]).

The other big case pits one of the most vocal liberal members of the Democratic party (Rep. Henry Waxman of California) against one of the venerable and powerful chairs of the Energy and Commerce Committee (Rep. John Dingell of Michigan).  This particular power struggle is fascinating and has potentially major ramifications for future energy legislation. 

Most will remember Waxman's activism against the tobacco industry and others in his role as Chair of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform.  As might be expected from a California representative, Waxman is very environmentally friendly (according to environmental groups).  He also sponsored the House's version of the "Kid Safe Chemical Act" that would dramatically reform the Toxic Substances Chemical Act (TSCA) [Senator Frank Lautenberg sponsored the original bill in the Senate]. You pretty much know where Waxman will be on any issue.

 

John Dingell, on the other hand, is a bit of a paradox.  He is generally considered a liberal Democrat, and throughout his career he has been a leading congressional supporter of organized labor, social welfare measures and traditional progressive policies.  He also "was a primary force behind enactment of the National Wilderness Act, the Water Quality Act of 1965, the National Environmental Policy Act, the Marine Mammal Protection Act, the Endangered Species Act, the Clean Air Act of 1977, the Safe Drinking Water Amendments of 1986, and the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990."  But Dingell is from Michigan, which has put him in the position of actually thwarting legislation that would increase the CAFE (fuel efficiency) standards, based on his feeling that it would hurt the already limping auto industry that remains a big part of Michigan's industrial base.  Furthermore, Dingell's wife is a lobbyist for General Motors (and actually a decendant of the founders of GM).  While Dingell is considered a reliable and powerful member of the Democratic caucus, he has been at odds with Speaker Pelosi and others on CAFE and climate change issues.

This, of course, has potentially huge ramifications for the prospects of developing sustainable energy policy, which is a goal that President-elect Obama has indicated is high on his list of priorities.  So, would having someone like Waxman (a California, "business-oversight" guy) or Dingell (a Michigcan, "I know the auto industry") guy in charge of the committee that will ultimately play a large role in our energy policy of the future? Would Waxman's views result in push-back from industry? Would Dingell's views put him in a better bargaining position with an industry that will likely be further affected by changes to energy policy?

Thoughts?

Posted on Political Futures, Innovation Futures, and Gather It All and Share It With Your Friends.

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Comments: 124

Kevin Freeman Nov 9, 2008, 8:32am EST
My vote would be for Dingell. It sounds like he has a better grip on both sides of the issues and he is serving his district better. This is great chance for the Speaker to show that she TRULY wants what is best for America. But I doubt that is going to happen, she is whack-job and needs to removed from office.

Show us your TRUE colors Madam Speaker!!!!
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Kevin Freeman Nov 9, 2008, 8:32am EST
Great post!
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 8:36am EST
Dingell certainly has contributed to the Democratic party policies, though he also has held them up on the CAFE standards. Still, the CAFE standards are only one small part of the energy debate. Dingell has been also not particularly forceful in forwarding the climate change issue, which is the source of debate between her and the Speaker. That will play a bigger role I'm sure as the debate continues.
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Debra C. Nov 9, 2008, 9:12am EST
While CAFE is a small part of energy policy, the auto industry as a whole is a vocal part of the line for handouts. Thre is talk of Gov Jennifer Granholm taking some role in the new administration. I can see a nod going to Waxman to help keep a lid on appearances if Congress is inclined to direct some aid to the automakers.
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~Sia McKye~ Nov 9, 2008, 9:44am EST
Interesting David. I'll have to follow the links.
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Chris W. Nov 9, 2008, 9:52am EST
Interesting topic David. The sausage factory will eventually power up and who knows what will come out the other end.
My main concern here is that the environment is likely to end up in second place when the priorities get stacked.
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Steve B. Nov 9, 2008, 9:53am EST
I hope Waxman replaces Dingell. Dingell has protected the auto industry into near financial ruin. The Japanese government, years ago, instituted stringent efficiency standards on the Japanese auto industry. Guess what? The Japanese auto industry is doing relatively well.

The American auto industry is asking government for a "bailout". Any assistance given to the American auto industry has to be tied to serious efficiency standards, and preferably to production of new types of cars/trucks - plug in hybrids, electric cars, fuel-cell cars, etc.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 9:58am EST
Debra - I was interested to see that Granholm was in Obama's economic advisory group, so we may see her in the Administration.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 10:01am EST
Chris - I'm concerned as well that the environment will have to take a back seat to dealing with the financial meltdown and economy, as well as two active wars. But, the environment and the energy debate are massively intertwined. A comprehensive evaluation of our energy needs has to also include impacts on the environment, most obviously CO2 emissions and climate change, but other aspects as well. So we'll see what happens.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 10:05am EST
Hi Steve - Waxman certainly has been an activist, though Dingell also has had a significantly positive impact on environmental regulations over the years. Perhaps the issues have evolved so that a change in leadership would be appropriate.

The auto industry is a poster child for old technology that is in need of some dramatic "creative destruction." Hasn't Amory Lovins looked at this issue? I'm sure he has a few good ideas that can make the industry more efficient. It's a start.
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donna h. Nov 9, 2008, 10:06am EST
good post
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 10:17am EST
Hope you'll read and comment
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Sam C. Nov 9, 2008, 10:22am EST
My vote is Waxman. The American auto industry needs conversion into a eco-friendly 21st century center of American industry. Obama has signaled as much, stating autos are the "backbone of American industry" and his emphasis upon a renewable energy driving economic development. Obama also owes a political debt to unions everywhere, as does every Dem.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 10:27am EST
Sam - There's no question that we have to find alternatives to our oil addiction, and the auto industry relies on oil (and refined gasoline, etc.) for its internal combustion engines that they have to be part of the solution. If Dingell can be convinced to in turn convince the auto industry that they can be more competitive and also greener, then we could go a long way to changing the mindset.
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Chris W. Nov 9, 2008, 10:31am EST
I realize that Waxman is just too liberal for many americans, but I think he has done excelent work with his investigations of tobacco and the Bush administration politicization of science.
I also think that our energy and environmental problems go far beyond the car industry. No, I do not want to un-employ 2 million people, but we need imaginative solutions to Detroit's demise, not just yesterday's answers.
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Karen E. Nov 9, 2008, 10:45am EST
I do not have a problem with change nor do I think that coming of a old age should target you for replacement. The qualifications of the individual are of critical importance. We need leadership that can bring our country out of this dive.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 10:47am EST
Chris - There's the rub. A lot of people rely on the auto industry for jobs. And not just the guys who make the cars, also the entire supply chain that make the parts, run the gas stations, repair cars when they break, etc. And with respect to the wider question of our oil addiction, it's not just gasoline but heating oil and jet fuel (here in Europe the "taxes and fees" more than double the cost of the airline ticket). And oil is also the basis for most plastics and most chemicals by volume. So this whole process is a really big deal.

I have tangential (not personal) ties to both Waxman and Dingell (I even saw Waxman on the Metro one day, though I didn't speak to him). A long time ago (when I was a budding marine biologist) Dingell was very influential in passing legislation funding fisheries projects, marine mammal protection, etc. Now I work mostly in the chemical industry evaluating health and safety of chemicals, and Waxman's "Kid Safe Chemical Act" is potentially a major focus of the future (hearings are already scheduled for the spring). Overall, I think both have done a good job, but when it comes to the auto industry I'm still uncertain whether Dingell's ties will be more helpful, or less helpful.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 10:51am EST
Colin - I've never been a big proponent of term limits in Congress, mainly because the voters can vote anyone out after only 2 years (for Representatives) or 6 years (for Senators). If they're doing a good job I see no reason to lose that on a technicality. On the other hand, there are definitely some members who have long overstayed their usefulness. Unfortunately, people like Robert Byrd and Strom Thurmond got reelected long after they should have been replaced, mostly out of loyalty by the voters. Given that the voters seem to vote on comfort rather then effectiveness, perhaps you're right that term limits would help. I'll have to think about that some more.
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Paul M. Nov 9, 2008, 10:54am EST
I was disappointed to hear of this infighting so quickly. The Dems need to get it together and move forward as one to enact an agenda that will benefit most Americans. That's how they'll keep their seats in the future.
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Brain W. Nov 9, 2008, 11:26am EST
What I want is to have Gore put into the EPA. Just imagine what those industry polluters and lobbyists will do knowing now Gore will be running the EPA. lol.. That will roll their noodles.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 11:32am EST
Brain - Do you really think Gore would want to be head of EPA? Seems to be doing okay on the outside.
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David Evans Nov 9, 2008, 11:32am EST
Whichever one takes up the reigns, I think it is obviously important that they hold their ground and not give in to the vested industries. From what you have described, David, I'm not sure I trust Dingle on that account. Fishery Legislation is a sticky wicket, balancing commerce with sustaining/conserving/preserving resources like habitat and fish stocks. The National Marine Fisheries agency is in fact part of the Commerce department and given the continuing declining state of the Nation's fisheries resources I'd say even the latest Magnuson-Stevens Fisheries Act leaned more toward the Commerce side (vested fisheries interests) than the 'Sustainability' side. The decision is indeed a sticky wicket in that it is not only because it is a matter of keeping a constituent/lobbying block "happy" in order to keep a seat in Congress (the cynical but accurate view) but because it also really does involve the lives, livelihoods, and culture of a segment of the population (though that segment needs to not be propped up by artificial means at the expense of destroying the "bigger picture").

There seems to be a similar analogy with the auto industry.

And over all the Fisheries Management Question seem to be an excellent analogy to the Energy Management Question.

We need someone who will not sellout to 'short sighted' or 'self-oriented' Vested Interests (i.e., the energy companies).

Though it is important that either one be able to work with and talk to them (the vested interests) as partners rather than antagonists, the Congressman needs to maintain the core purpose of his position by being the Lead (representing ALL interests, not just vested ones) and not be used as Dupe. Right now, it seems they act more as dupes for industry than as leaders of congress with wider responsibilities.

Personally, I think Waxman, in the House is more suited to that role and independence.

Waxman, however, has been doing such a great job on the Oversight committee I'd hate to lose him at that position (Can the chair more than one committee?).

Whoever gets the chair, I think it is VERY important that they look into Cheney's Energy meeting he held in the early days of the Bush administration's first term. To go forward with wise energy policy, we Need to know what the Policy blue print has been for the Past eight years. I think Waxman would be best at getting that as well.

Thanks for this discussion David... Very important!

Best,
DJE
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 11:35am EST
Paul - It's actually pretty common. The young sprites (okay, so Waxman is something like 69) who have been waiting patiently through the seniority process feel it's time to "encourage" the elder statesman to give someone else a chance. And with lots of new faces, both directly from the election and from replacements as Congressman are pulled into the Administration, there is bound to be some competition. I think it's healthy, actually.

But I absolutely agree with you about how to keep their seats - do the jobs all of us elected them to do, which is govern the entire country rather than just special interests (like only half the country).
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David Evans Nov 9, 2008, 11:39am EST
Also, I think it would be great for Gore to have a position at EPA (top position) and I think it would also be great for Robert Kennedy, Jr. to have a spot too.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 11:45am EST
David - I like you're fisheries analogy (and not just because I worked for NMFS many years ago doing behavioral research on fish). We need to take a long range view of this.

You also raise a good point about Waxman. I'm not sure how many committees (and subcommittees) any one person can chair. Waxman definitely has a "watchdog" type of personality, which may or may not be the best idea for what needs to be done for energy policy development. While I would be interested to know more about the secret Cheney energy meetings, I'm more inclined to focus our sights on the future rather than the past. We need to get on the right track, and soon. I think it's safe to say that oil and gas development have been the focus of the past, so perhaps what we need is to sit down around a table with all of the stakeholders (oil companies, alternative energy companies, auto makers, environmentalists, public advocacy groups [to help us change our day to day energy use behaviors], Republicans, Democrats, etc.) and have a serious discussion of the options and alternatives. Let's do it right and set a policy that will be sustainable. We know we can't fix things over night, so let's be sure we get ourselves moving in the right direction.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 11:48am EST
David - I still don't think Gore would want it, or would even be that good at it. Robert Kennedy's name has been floated as a possible EPA Administrator, and that would certainly signal that the Agency is going to be much more favorable to the environmental side of its often conflicting mandate.

By the way, I have spoken with several EPA people and the general attitude is that they are very happy with the outcome. They tell me that a sense of gloom had settled over the Agency during the current Administration and they have high hopes for the Obama Administration. They may be disappointed - there is only so much one many can accomplish - but for now they seem rejuvenated.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 11:57am EST
By the way, the following comes from the Obama/Biden "Plan for Science and Innovation." It gives a few hints at their attitudes going into the process.

o Restoring integrity to US science policy

o Doubling over a 10 year period the federal investment in basic research

o Making a national commitment to science education and training

o Encouraging American innovation to flourish

o Addressing the "grand challenges" of the 21st century

More details are in the plan, which I think is posted on their web site (Obama Plan

If it doesn't work, go to http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/issues/FactSheetScience.pdf
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Sam C. Nov 9, 2008, 12:24pm EST
In order to protect and recover economic security we may temporarily need to do some outlandish public investments that will cost a lot of money. We may also require some high handed Exec branch interference in markets, especially the energy sector. The economy has to be completely restructured while keeping it working at a prosperous level. This is a terrific job and will take time.
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Sam C. Nov 9, 2008, 12:29pm EST
America need to understand HOW this debacle came to be and the fundemental flaw of conservative governing. Unless the corruption is exposed in nausating detail it will be difficult to develop the political consensus to make the hard and costly choices. America has to know where it is, how it got there before we can go forward.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 12:32pm EST
Sam - You certainly capture the enormity of the situation. I've just finished reading Thomas Friedman's new book "Hot, Flat, and Crowded" and he tells a story of fixing the energy problem while keeping the economy going is like the situation in the movie "Speed" - you have to completely change out the engine of the bus while keeping it moving and in fact never letting it slow down below 50 miles an hour; otherwise it blows up in your face.

It's an enormous task and will take the combined intellect of all of us, no matter what our political views or our country of residence.
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Larry M. Nov 9, 2008, 12:42pm EST
Another outstanding post, David. It makes one think on a number of important topics.

If the Democrats form a united front we are in for the same kind of disasters that we got from the Republican lock-step orthodoxy. Neither the right nor the left (nor the middle) is going to be right about everything. We have to hope that the Democrats have a number of "mavericks" in important posts in government. We need in Congress people who really think about our problems and looming problems in a variety of ways.
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David Evans Nov 9, 2008, 12:47pm EST
David, I think you are probably right about Gore and he is probably best suited to continue doing what he has been doing so far (he seems to have found himself) and would like prefer to continue doing what he has been doing...

I'm not sure the EPA necessarily has a "conflicted mandate" as you said. I think it's mandate is clear as the "Environmental Protection Agency." I think the way it was used by the Bush administration created the conflict by his introduction of politics and industry into the Agency itself.

NMFS certainly does have a conflicted mandate, being within the Department of Commerce and I sympathize with their efforts to run that knife's edge...

(I worked for NMFS too while in college (they call themselves NOAA Fisheries now)).

Agencies in the Department of the Interior aren't supposed to be in bed with the industries...

But yes, it is a fine dance and balance... But that is where the Leadership of the Presidency comes in! (I can well believe the relief of the employees at the EPA!).

Bush put so many Industry people into positions that were supposed to balance and regulate the industries that it was a truly sad joke (literally putting foxes in the hen houses, except with rabid human 'foxes' instead of actual foxes). Kennedy wrote an excellent book about it during the first term (which should be known as the "lay up to disaster" as opposed to the second term that should be known as the "slam dunk of disaster").

I agree with you about looking forward. I also think that we need not give them anymore of our energy than they deserve. But I do think that to go forward sometimes we need to resolve our past. So yes, I don't think that the core Plans and Planning for going forward with wise energy policy need revolve around shedding light on the darkness of Cheney and Bush, but I do think it will be instructive in a constructive way and is important.

It's good to see that Plan for Science and Innovation.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 1:04pm EST
Larry - I have to hope that the Democrats aren't so short-sighted that they can't see the disaster the Republicans just made when they had both Congress and the White House and pushed their partisan agenda. And I have to hope that President-elect Obama will make it clear that he doesn't want to see just left wing partisan bills crossing his desk. Otherwise this whole election would be for naught.

I saw in a commentary by Roger Simon called "Audacity Wins" that said "Obama’s victory does not signal a shift in ideology in this country. It signals that the American public has grown weary of ideologies."

I agree. My vote for cast not for a particular ideology but for a chance to govern rationally and for all Americans. A chance to see into the future and start preparing properly for it today instead of merely mortgaging it to China. A chance to actually take a stab at addressing the big issues for which we have a federal government.

Good ideas do not come from one party. The parties are there to make sure that multiple viewpoints are heard, that varied points of view are presented, and that the concerns of everyone are at least put on the table for discussion.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 1:06pm EST
David - I whole heartedly agree...this is where leadership from the Presidency comes in. That is something we didn't have with Bush. We could arguably question whether we had it with Clinton, given all the distractions of his two terms. Obama comes into the job with everyone's attention. Let's help him use it properly.
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James B. Nov 9, 2008, 2:18pm EST
I'm not comfortable with Dingell in this position. As others have mentioned, the US auto industry, aided and abetted by the government, has managed itself into irrelevance and failure on a colossal scale. I have no problem protecting auto workers' jobs, but I have a big problem supporting the incompetent management (as judged by the results vs. their competitors).

There is every reason to believe that Detroit auto makers can have a rebirth, and create jobs in the process, by actually paying attention to what consumers want and what is going on in the world. I have neighbors who had bought American cars their whole lives but "broke down" and bought a Toyota because they "couldn't stand the bad construction quality, poor reliability and bad gas mileage" of their last several American cars.

There is plenty of opportunity for job maintenance and creation in well-run auto industry (though the economy isn't a help to any manufacturer these days). How about making a few car models, on a massive scale, that don't look like boxes and that use new energy-saving, cost-effective approaches like plug-in hybrid technology at an affordable price? These cars could stimulate buying and help people with their commuting costs, especially if they are affordable. Also, how about getting rid of the absurdly large number of different models that Detroit makes, almost none of which are wanted by anybody (ignoring pick-ups, anyway)? What can the government do to help? Many things. One would be to offer significant tax incentives for people who purchase the new, energy efficient, gasoline-free (or reduced) cars. If Detroit actually made any (or more than one), this would help the US manufacturing companies as long as they could design and build the cars well.

The problem isn't with the American worker, it is with the idiots who run Detroit's companies from the top.

Maybe we should bail out Detroit under the condition that all management in the top 8 levels is fired (8 is an arbitrary number I made up- I have no idea how deep the purge would really have to be) and the companies are required to hire or borrow executives from Honda, Hyundai or Toyota as CEOs and other top executives for a minimum of 10 years?

Thanks for the post.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 2:33pm EST
James - There does seem to be a lot of blame to put on management. I've heard for years that "we make the cars Americans want." But if that were true, why are they not selling more of them? Why are people switching to foreign cars? And why are people waiting 6 months to a year to get a pre-ordered Prius if they could just go to the local GM dealership and buy "the car they really want.?"

In all fairness, the US auto makers do have another problem that is more historical than anything else, though the management can be blamed for not dealing with it sooner. And that is the same problem that we have with Social Security. The auto manufacturers (and other industries) promised pensions to all their workers, which was fine when there weren't that many retirees and they died within years after retiring. Now that there are more retirees than workers, and now that retirees can live for decades after retiring, there just isn't enough money in the pensions to cover everyone. This fact alone is killing them (though the CEOs still seem to pad their own nest eggs pretty well still).

The industry needs a wholesale retooling. Which takes new thinking...and new blood.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 2:36pm EST
James - Some of the other things you say are critical. I mentioned the Prius in my last comment. Well, the government gave $3000-$5000 tax credits to people buying Priuses (up to a certain number sold). We incentivize those things we want to promote (like mortgages so people can buy houses) and tax those things we want to reduce (like cigarettes). There already exists, but we will have to change, a system of incentives and taxes to make it cost effective to seek alternatives.
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Andrea (Ms. Conservative) L. Nov 9, 2008, 2:50pm EST
If they really want to show true partisanship - they stressed this after the election (remember the press conference?) - they will put a moderate Republican in who knows the business workings and can do the job. But, we all know that won't happen.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 2:57pm EST
Hi Andrea - Actually, it would be illegal (or at least against House rules) for that to happen. The majority party chairs all committees, which means a Democrat is chair of all committees and subcommittees now, just as the Republican was chair of everything when they held the majority. There is a "ranking member" for the minority party in all cases, and the membership is split evenly among the two parties (plus two Independents for the committees on which they serve). The ranking member of this Committee is Mississippi congressman Thad Cochran, a man that doesn't shy away from speaking his mind.

What you're probably thinking of is the make up of the President-elect's cabinet, which can be comprised of whoever he wants. Obama has indicated that likely two of his cabinet picks will be Republicans, along with some of the other appointees he will make. His stated goal is to find people who can do the job that needs to be done, rather than simply handing out jobs as favors.
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Sam C. Nov 9, 2008, 3:00pm EST
One man's common sense policy is another man's extremist ideology. Is lifting the ban on embryonic stem cell research policy or ideology? The Freedom of Choice act? Shooting the rabid foxes in the hen house? There are those in the elecotrate long divorced from reality. The "ideology first, consequences be damned" crowd is still out there. Any deviation from the RW agenda, no matter how valid and proven, will be considered LW extremism, no matter what Obama does or how successful.
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David K. Nov 9, 2008, 3:11pm EST
Sam - Unfortunately way too many people focus on ideology. To me, ideology is adherence to a bumper sticker concept without thinking about it. You can be for or against embryonic stem cell research, for example, after researching what that means, thinking deeply about the potential scientific and religious ramifications, discussing it with others, and then making your decision either way. That is thinking. Or you can be for or against it because "your party" says so. That is ideology.

Case in point is a recent interview I saw of "Joe the Plumber" calling Obama a socialist. His rationale was that he looked it up in the dictionary and "that's exactly what Obama said." His sole understanding of socialism comes from an entry in the dictionary and a four word statement made off the cuff by Obama. So despite two years of touting his plans and absolutely no one even suggesting that it was socialistic in any shape or fashion, suddenly based on 4 words not only is the plan socialist but so is Obama. That is blind adherence to ideology (i.e., uninformed acceptance of what somebody tells you is best for you).
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Sy g. Nov 9, 2008, 6:24pm EST
Great article David

I know lots of folks in the EPA, and believe me they are all happy. I think it would be a wonderful thing if Obama would appoint a scientist to head that agency (for the first time) instead of a lawyer or politician. That would go a long way toward reaching the goal of non-ideological approach to environmental issues.
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Charles Temm JR Nov 9, 2008, 9:20pm EST
Interesting times I'm afraid ahead. The paper companies better have lots ready for all the new laws to come...
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Wilma D. Nov 9, 2008, 10:25pm EST
I hope he will start appointing some new faces too.
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David Evans Nov 9, 2008, 10:50pm EST
Sy,
Scientists don't always make the best managers. I'm not saying that they never do or that they don't exist...

The key is a good manager that understands and respects the science...

Wilma, I also agree about new faces, and I don't doubt that they are out there...
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Randy W. Nov 9, 2008, 11:45pm EST
Waxman represents the Hollywood elite, and "stages" Congressional hearings with your tax dollars to deliver predetermined political results. David K. did a good job of describing Dingell's conflicts of interest (that we know about), which are the same as many in Congress from both parties.

This Congressional election only rearranges the deck chairs on the Titanic, and the new members will quickly be inducted into the "go along to get along" system by the old pros like Dingell and Waxman. Initiation into the corrupt system happens in both parties, and until "We the people" send Congress a message by retiring many of the "old pros" the corruption will continue. The people have to decide whether they want earmarks or a Congress that works for them.

They can't have both!
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 1:18am EST
Sy and David - I agree with David that scientists don't always make the best managers, though lawyers don't necessarily either. The problem I think is direction. How much political influence is there from the top that impacts the career professionals.

The current Administrator, Steve Johnson, was a career EPA person. I remember the hope when he reached the upper level appointments was he would use his experience from within the Agency to avoid being unduly influenced politically. The feeling, at least from all the EPA people I know, is that this did not happen. Unfortunately, the Administrator is a politically appointed position, and who the President picks makes a big difference (think Bill Ruckelshaus vs Anne Gorsuch).
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 1:25am EST
Randy - I agree that the people need to decide to reward good work rather than pandering, though I'm not as cynical as you are about the process. Indoctrination and conformity happens in every organization...things just wouldn't work if everyone simply does whatever they feel like when they feel like it. As you suggest, Congress is too often a seniority rules organization, whereas it would be nice if it were "seniority advises." I'd like to see the leadership actively encourage and further the ideas of the new members, vetted by the experience and insights of the longer-term members.

I'm curious as to why you equate earmarks with a non-working Congress, as if you could suddenly eliminate earmarks and everything would be okay. It seems that earmarks are only a small part of the problem.
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Bruce K. Nov 10, 2008, 1:30am EST
Scientist are often the first casualties of politics, and for that reason
it is said they do not make good managers. I think it is BS. I am with
Sy, someone who knows a subject inside and out, and who has learned
to think, and who has the power and confidence of the administration
to act would make a very good EPA head.

One of the reasons we are in such a morass is that our dumb-shhhh
politicians are so ignorant they relied totally on lobbyists to tell them
what to do, and do not have enough background to know if they
are being advised well, and do not have the intellectual rigor or
undderstanding of objectivism to know how to play the lobbyists
against each other to dig into the truth.

This is just my opinion but the hydrogen idea that is being
pushed is way ahead of its time, if there ever will be one, and
politicians do not seem to get it.

Not to mention there has to be some education and give
on nuclear. There is little choice on that.
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Bruce K. Nov 10, 2008, 1:33am EST
Following on, I respect Al Gore, but he was one of the more
rational and scientific people in the government and from
watching his movie it is clear that he made mostly emotional
arguments and was not so clear on what he was saying nor
did he give the other side. He certainly supported the Internet's
design and construction, but if he had a clue he would have
taken up the gauntlet of electronic and digital privacy with
I think will be coming up very soon as a major issue that
Americans are completely clueless about.
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 1:36am EST
Bruce - As a scientist I can say from personal experience that scientists aren't always good managers, but then they aren't always not good managers either. It comes down to having the right person for the job, whether they are career scientists or not. Science many scientists are focused on answering questions they tend to focus in on the details, whereas the job of Administrator entails also seeing the bigger picture. But again, the right person would be capable of understanding the science but also understanding how it fits into the larger world. That would be ideal.

I agree that there is a need for better education of politicians on scientific (and many other) aspects.
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 1:43am EST
Bruce - Gore's role in his movie/slide presentation was to stimulate action, and as such was a bit over the top. But it was needed to get the word out. This actually is related to the scientist discussion above. Scientists are trained to "get the facts right" but also to discuss uncertainties. The public likes certainty (do I use paper or plastic?) and doesn't have enough background to understand all the intricacies of the uncertainties so they can make individual decisions. This uncertainty gets exploited by those who would rather not believe in the overall scientific consensus. When someone like Al Gore, who was VP of the US and known for a long-time as being environmentally aware, gets up and says something, people listen. Otherwise we wouldn't even be talking about climate change outside of scientific conferences.
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 1:44am EST
okay, gotta get to the office
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Bruce K. Nov 10, 2008, 1:50am EST
Let's say all things being equal scientific background, training and methodology is a good thing, and since we need superlative people in this administration it would be a shame not to be able time find something with that.
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Bruce K. Nov 10, 2008, 1:54am EST
Yeah, I think you are expressing the common wisdom David that average people cannot handle nuance, but the test of good understanding is the ability to simplify and analogize - is that a word. I think the copout that people cannot understand is really to keep their noses out of politics. I would be thrilled to see Obama give some fireside chat type talks to get buy in to what is going to be a very tough sell any which way in energy, and also we cannot afford to get it wrong.
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Bruce K. Nov 10, 2008, 1:58am EST
David, remember how Al Gore got gored on his energy hog houses by the Republicans. They discovered and revealed that he was a figurehead and did not really walk the walk. If there is going to be integrity those loose ends need to be tied together. People are wary of politicians, or is it sick? i don't mean to be combative, but I would love to see some levelheaded scientist put through a test drive. Remember how beloved Carl Sagan was and what a great communicator?
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 2:43am EST
Bruce - I agree that oversimplification is part of the problem, as is the lack of curiosity and desire to learn of the public. No one expects the public to be experts in everything, but they should be able to critically think enough to know when they are being shystered. I like your idea of Obama doing some sort of public outreach to help educate people about the issues. Part of the problem is that big decisions are being made in back rooms and the public isn't privy to the discussion until it is given to them as a done deal. Obama promised to be more transparent in deliberations on key issues (as much as is reasonable anyway), so I hope he follows through on that.
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 2:51am EST
As for Gore not walking the talk, the same can be said for virtually all of us. I remember a scientific meeting I chaired a few years ago. We were very careful to make it "green" with recycling, carbon offsets, etc. But one of researchers did a study and found that 99% of the energy usage came from flying 2500 people in from all over the world. No matter how much we think we're doing the right thing, the reality is that we are making only tiny changes compared to what needs to happen.

As for Carl Sagan, I had the privilege of meeting him once (very briefly). He had the unique ability to think on a very technical level (try reading Broca's Brain) and yet talk on a level the public could appreciate. Isaac Asimov was another guy that could do that (perhaps because he also wrote science fiction in addition to hard science).
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Bruce K. Nov 10, 2008, 3:50am EST
I have read all Sagan's books, i think, starting with Intelligent Life In The Universe as a teen. I envy you meeting him, he was one of my major heros. I walked by his office at Cornell once when I was in New York, but he was not there. His son Dorion is really smart and wrote a book that for me bridges science, evolution, God, and Gaia ... it's all about entropy. A read Asimovs stuff as well, his fiction was better, but Sagan's non-fiction was fantastic. Demon Haunted World.

Flying is problematic. With global warming the numbers say we are already cooked. Somehow we need to get everyone onboard with saving the planet, that is job number 1 really.
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 4:06am EST
Bruce - I think you said you had read or were reading Thomas Friedman's new book, Hot, Flat, and Crowded. He mentions in there that some people think we are having a "green revolution" but at best we are having a "green party." We're all looking for the "205 ways to save for planet without breaking a sweat," to paraphrase one of his chapters.

The bottom line is that we need to change our mindset. The whole idea of "drill baby drill" is emblematic of the limited vision we have been employing. I'm increasingly interested in opening up the vision, both in a broader sense (peripherally to see all current solutions) and hyperopically (i.e., into the distance, as in the future).
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Steve B. Nov 10, 2008, 8:11am EST
David: "Hasn't Amory Lovins looked at this issue?"

RMI developed the concept of the "Hypercar" in the 1990s.

More on Lovins' push to "lightweight" cars and double efficiency.
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Steve B. Nov 10, 2008, 8:18am EST
David. Friedman also talks about a grid that is kin to the internet, and how it would work in your home. He gives a fairly long description of this, and coincidentally, RMI has an article on this in the current newsletter.
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 8:27am EST
Thanks Steve. I was fascinated by Friedman's "Energy Internet" - seems pretty implausable at the moment, but I like the concept.

I'll take a look at the RMI newsletter (I'm on a quick break). Thanks for your insights.
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 11:25am EST
Found this interesting item in a newsletter:

Sun, wind power could threaten grid. Adding electricity from the wind and sun could increase the frequency of blackouts and reduce the reliability of the nation’s electrical grid, according to a report by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation. The report, which will be released today, said that unless appropriate measures are taken to improve transmission of electricity, rules reducing carbon dioxide emissions by utilities could impair the reliability of the power grid.
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David Evans Nov 10, 2008, 12:04pm EST
Regarding the Carbon Footprint of flying in relation to the "green factor" of scientific conferences I will throw some scientific observation into it with a dash of the 'politic:'

To some degree the Carbon Footprint of flying to conferences is a bit of a canard (a flying canard??? heh, sorry)...

Look at it from the view of airline schedules and the "as is" situation of airline activity. With a conference held in one country, say the Netherlands for example, and say 500 scientists flying to it from around the world, they will be traveling there from a diverse list of home cities. Unless a group of scientists charter a jetliner to get to the Netherlands, those flights were scheduled to go there already.

Now for the 'politic:' if the conference is not 'frivolous' and truly an important part of the scientific process, and if at the conference a "green" ethic is raised and imparted on the scientists and the purpose of the conference furthers the efforts of "greening" the world, then there is a positive 'trade-back' and 'payoff' to the conference in the direction of "greening" the world.

[The idea of 'tele-conferencing' or 'virtual conferencing, though, is gaining traction and popularity].

Now for a scattering of the "realistic:" aside from the political 'self-justification' of flying to conferences, we do know that it is the little individual things that add up to our overall approach to living that matters. So, long lasting change happens when we choose to do the little things differently as individuals, like flying. And that has to be part of the long term equation.

Bruce, as a scientist I think David said it well regarding scientists as managers and I think I pointed out as well that it is not necessarily always the case.

Respect for and understanding of science is vital either way (whoever/whatever has the top spot in EPA). It was Bush's approach to disregard science that was so destructive and counterproductive.

That is why leadership of the President IS so important regardless of who/what takes that top spot.
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Steve B. Nov 10, 2008, 12:31pm EST
David: "I was fascinated by Friedman's 'Energy Internet' - seems pretty implausable at the moment, but I like the concept."

It may be further along than we think. This, from the above referenced RMI newsletter:

"The concept of Smart Garage technology and infrastructure is no longer a futuristic vision. Activities in multiple sectors are already underway -- such as the push for a Smart Grid, and thousands of converted plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are already hitting the road."

David Evans: "...we do know that it is the little individual things that add up to our overall approach to living that matters. So, long lasting change happens when we choose to do the little things differently as individuals, like flying. And that has to be part of the long term equation."

Individual efforts have been necessary, not so much for the actual effect on ghgs, but for the groundswell of demand for public policy that will actually have the desired effect. It will be very interesting to see the approach the Obama administration will take.
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 12:42pm EST
Thanks David for the added insight. I can say that I do a lot more teleconferences, video conferences, and e-conferences (where you phone in AND see the presentations online real time). And I do think that the conferences are useful [at least the ones I attend :)]. The "face-to-face" interaction is invaluable, and often leads to further collaborations. Next week I'll actually miss an annual conference I've been going to for years because of the travel, but the flip side is that I'm chairing a session at the European version of the same society conference in Sweden in May. So I guess there is an up-side to everything.
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 12:44pm EST
Steve - I looked at the RMI newsletter after I left my comment and saw the smart garage. Friedman does say he has chatted with Lovins several times (routinely?) and so that must be where the idea came from. I like the Smart Grid idea...clearly it will take some incredible change in mentality for it ever to happen.
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Bruce K. Nov 10, 2008, 1:33pm EST
The biggest blackout ever occurred a few years ago and was due to wind power not integrating right with the rest of the power grid in europe.

we do have to change our mindsets, and at least part of that is to recognize that with all the troubles we have one thing that has been saving our butts has been nuclear power, particularly in Europe. it can geneate the magnitude of energy we need including growth, it is CO2 free, and it is sustainable for the forseeable future.

considering the CO2 we have already dumped out there is still in the pipeline to alter climate there is not a lot of choice.

changing the electrical grid sounds good ... it is just a few feelgood words, but the reality has to be proven. I don't know why people cannot separate these issues and look at them objectively, you do not need a high level of technical expertise to understand some of these basic ideas.
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 2:00pm EST
I wish I could answer your last question, Bruce "why people cannot separate these issues and look at them objectively..." Perhaps it's just information overload, on top of their already busy lives. It seems we have a hard time thinking rationally and in fact have a proclivity for emotional (usually misinformed) reaction to anything that is remotely different. This communication lapse will have to be taken into consideration with anything we do. That's why I think it's important to have as open a process as possible. Let people be in on the discussions so they can get comfortable with the ideas. Besides improving buy-in, it also provides an opportunity for valuable insights from the public. Too often the "experts" can't see the practical forest for the trees, and interacting with the people that will ultimately use these things can bring out potential implementation issues before we go too far down the wrong road.
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Jenny D. Nov 10, 2008, 2:34pm EST
thanks for sharing!
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David K. Nov 10, 2008, 2:57pm EST
Thanks for coming by Jenny
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Bruce K. Nov 10, 2008, 3:19pm EST
i agree with you david
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Rose H. Nov 11, 2008, 4:12pm EST
Good post and a great discussion. I've been away from gather for a couple of weeks, but I'll come back to your post again to follow the links.
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David K. Nov 11, 2008, 4:21pm EST
Thanks Rose. Glad you're back.
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Steve B. Nov 11, 2008, 10:49pm EST
Repower America has asserted that we can be completely powered by renewables in ten years, given a concerted effort on four fronts: 1. conservation (which is not simply wearing an extra sweater in winter), 2. renewable sources of energy (wind, solar, etc.), 3. a smart grid (including the smart garage - and likely the smart household), and 4. plug-in hybrids and more advanced transportation technology. As T. Boone Pickens has said, "America’s closer to a real energy plan than we’ve been in 40 years. I’m dead serious about this, we just have to stay on the politicians to get it done."

You can sign petitions to "stay on the politicians" at Repower America and/or The Pickens Plan.
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Steve B. Nov 11, 2008, 11:03pm EST
David: "Friedman does say he has chatted with Lovins several times (routinely?) and so that must be where the idea came from."

Indeed, Friedman addressed the 25th Anniversay Conference at RMI.

David: "I like the Smart Grid idea...clearly it will take some incredible change in mentality for it ever to happen."

RMI recently hosted a conference re: the smart garage, including many of the corporations that would be involved in creating/profiting from its development, e.g., GM, Nissan, PG&E, Duke Energy, IBM, P&G, Wal-Mart and Google.
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David K. Nov 12, 2008, 12:20am EST
Steve - I think it's safe to say that such an extraordinary change in thinking is only possible with great leadership from the top. We now have a chance, I think. So we'll have to keep pressing the issues.
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David K. Nov 12, 2008, 12:20am EST
Thanks for all you insights, Steve.
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Steve B. Nov 13, 2008, 12:06pm EST
David. I just ran across this article on the smart garage and the electric vehicle in Forbes.

Electric-Powered Future Two Years Away?

"Automakers, utility companies and others are working together to create a grid that creates one big power source out of electric vehicles. And it's closer to becoming a reality than you might think."
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David K. Nov 13, 2008, 2:52pm EST
Well this is intriguing. Thanks Steve.
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Brook D Nov 15, 2008, 4:08pm EST
By March 2009 60% of Americans will agree that man-made global warming is a hoax, and by March 2010 100% of Americans will agree. It is clear we are now shifting back into a global cooling phase, like the planet has done for millnenia, and there is NOTHING we can do to influence this. Despite what you might hear from Gore, Boxer, Obama and the rest of the global warming hoaxers, they have no ability whatsoever to influence the temperature one way or the other.

Obama's election gurantees $ 200 a barrel oil. We have to increase domestic oil production and we have to do it now, but Democrats won't budge on this issue, and it will be the reason they are tossed out of Congress within 4 years. Their allegiance to the radical enviornmentalists and their absolute embrace of the ridiculous idea that we can actually control the weather on this planet will be their undoing.
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David K. Nov 15, 2008, 5:43pm EST
Ironically, Brook Brook, the overwhelming consensus of climate scientists and the facts would suggest your assertions as completely unsupportable. In fact, it would seem you are posturing an opinion that cannot be shared by any informed being. Perhaps if you provided some reliable evidence to support your contention it wouldn't sound so contrary to reality. But then, you have no reliable evidence since your entire presence on Gather is to be a contrarian.

And frankly, it's a little hard to take seriously someone who has posted nothing and has no friends...who merely signed up under a silly pseudonym in order to leave unsupportable, uninformed, and often illogical comments that are contrary to thoughtful discourse. At best, it makes you look silly.
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Brook D Nov 15, 2008, 8:34pm EST
Winter 2008 was the coldest in decades and this one will be colder. By next winter you'll realize you've been had, Dave. Look, if we do start cooling demonstrably, are you and Al Gore and all the other warmers going to propose that we need to pump as much carbon in the air as possible to keep a new Ice Age from starting? I mean, the idea is ridiculous. Never in the history of science has carbon been treated as the sole thermostat on this planet -- until Gore and other radicals seized upon it as an idea to create fear -- thus steering people toward their direction. He completely ignores other factors that have far more influence over global temps. Speaking as someone who lives within 5 miles of his huge Nashville mansion and have many mutual acquaintances, we are baffled that the world takes this guy so seriously. The private Gore seems to be a man not completely in tune with reality -- if you know what i mean.

Gore's hockey stick theory has been dubunked, the polar bears dying debunked, seas rising 20 ft in 100 years debunked. Ice core samples from glaciers indicate carbon levels 30 TIMES HIGHER during the Ice Age than they are today. According to JPL Labs Mars and Pluto have both warmed by a degree over the past decade. Hmmmm.... very coincidental, don't you think? Earth warming at the same time other planets in our galaxy -- could there possibly be a correlation? These are inconvenient truths Mr. Gore and others don't want to debate. I could debunk all of them in about 30 minutes in a serious debate.

I just joined a week or so ago, so if you want to be my first Gather friend Dave -- I'm honored.
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David K. Nov 16, 2008, 1:38am EST
BB - What makes you think the world's scientists listen to Al Gore? Scientists have been studying this for decades and come to these conclusions...they didn't all just go to Gore's slide show one day and have an epiphany. In fact it is the reverse. Gore used data that scientists have been building for quite some time. He simply jumped on the bandwagon and became a celebrity spokesperson. So use Gore as a foil all you want, but we both know raising his name is a convenient ruse to distract people from scientific consensus on this issue.
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Brook D Nov 16, 2008, 9:04am EST
I'm questioning the science as well, using some of the arguments I've laid out. As with any theory there are brilliant people on both sides (despite what you wish to present). The skeptics in this debate, however, are not given much due by the media and there is a lot of pressure within the scientific community to go along to get along. Given that scientists are still not sure what caused the Ice Age or it's end, I don't believe for a second they can be absolutely certain of what is happening now.

China has 1200 new coal-fired power plants on the books to build in the next 15 years, which means carbon levels will not be going down, regardless of what we do. Russia, Venezuela, Iran, and Mexico are all declining in oil production rapidly. What does that add up to in 2 years? Answer -- a global energy crisis and prices that will be almost double what we paid last summer. None of the alternatives will be available to prevent this. The ONLY choice we have is to increase our own production by 1 million bpd, and we have to cut through all the red tape to get it done in 2 years.

I keep hearing politicians talking about this like we have a choice -- we don't! We have to do this or we will face the worst inflation this country has ever seen on top of a recession. It is a crisis completely manufactured by Democrats who believe they can control the weather on this planet. Dave, we don't have time to waste. Everyone has to acknowledge the reality and push Congress to act and act quickly.
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David K. Nov 16, 2008, 9:52am EST
BB - The problem with your analysis is that it ignores scientific consensus, gives false importance to the small minority who for varying reasons disagree with the consensus, totally devalues long-term environmental and economic impacts, and arbitrarily inflates the importance of short-term economic development. It also ignores the fact that continued reliance on old technologies only will lead to more acute job losses while an emphasis on developing new energy technologies will expand the workforce and the economy. In fact, your arguments actually accent how important it is to get away from the old way of thinking. Furthermore, your contention that the "ONLY" choice is to increase production of non-renewable fuels is short-sighted at best. We waste a great deal of energy, and many companies have been wise enough to find out that they actually save money by conserving and retrofitting to minimize waste.

The fact that India and China are only now getting geared up in their use of non-renewable resources also emphasizes why reliance on dwindling oil and gas reserves and dirty coal technologies is a losing game.

This is the reality that must be acknowledged.
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Brook D Nov 16, 2008, 11:44am EST
Have you noticed you keep hiding behind "the scientists", Dave. What do YOU think? Scientists change their mind every day over whether coffee is bad for us or not. Do you believe that Barbara Boxer's bill is actually going to bring down global temps and if so -- how much? I mean, let's get real.

I didn't say we don't need to develop alternatives. That is a wise course to chart, but it's not my fault we have wasted 30 years since the embargo of the 70's. I am looking at the situation on the ground and crunching the numbers. Obama's plug-in hybrids are an untested technology that will not even be available for 2 more years, and nobody's going to have the money to buy them. If OPEC takes 2 million bpd a day off the market and continues to divest in future production, they will not have the capacity to ramp up again. Where are we going to get the oil we need, Dave?

We are financing all these bailouts by printing money. This translates into an extreme dollar devaluation within 24 months that will send oil prices sky high. I'm talking about inflation like you've never seen. This is not theory -- it's based on what has happened in the past. Our economy will not be strong enough to stand the shock of this scenario. What good is all this new technology going to do if our economy collapses in the meantime? The situation is dire and people better wake up. We are planting the seeds for our own demise.
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David K. Nov 16, 2008, 11:57am EST