A Preliminary Analysis of the Hispanic Vote 2008

As part of its ongoing analysis of yesterday's historic election, NDN is proud to release two new memos concerning the fastest-growing voter groups in the United States, Hispanics and Millennials. Each group played a pivotal role in the election of Barack Obama.

This report is a quick, preliminary analysis of what happened with the Hispanic vote in last night's historic election. For further background, please check out NDN's major study of Hispanic voting trends, Hispanics Rising II.

Key Findings:

Hispanics Participation Rates Continue to Increase - Despite an historically high turnout, the Hispanic share of the national vote increased from 8% in 2004 to 9% in 2008. In three of the battleground states with significant Latino populations, the share of the electorate that was Hispanic more than doubled in Colorado, increased 60% in Nevada, and increased almost 30% in New Mexico (see table below).

Hispanics Have Decisively Swung to the Democrats - According to the exit polls, Barack Obama improved Democrats' performance with Hispanics nationwide by 16 net percentage points. In 2004, Senator John Kerry outperformed President George W. Bush with Latinos by 59% to 40%. In 2008, it was 67% Obama, 32% McCain. In the battleground Latino states, there was similar movement, with the vote shift in Florida from 44%-55% Kerry/Bush to 57%-42% Obama/McCain. In each of these four states, the margin provided by the Latino vote played a significant role in President-elect Obama's victory.

Hispanics Provided The Margin of Victory in These Four States - In Colorado, Obama's Hispanic support accounted for 12.4% of the electorate, while Obama only won by 7%. In Florida, Obama's Hispanic support accounted for 7.9% of the electorate, while Obama only won by 2%. In Nevada, Obama's Hispanic support accounted for 12.4% of the electorate, while Obama only won by 12%. In New Mexico, Obama's Hispanic support accounted for 28.3% of the electorate, while Obama only won by 15%.

If These Trends Continue, the National Map Will Continue to Get Harder for Republicans - Of the eight states which flipped from Bush 2004 to Obama 2008, four were heavily Latino states. Just as Pete Wilson's taking on Hispanics in the 1990s contributed to the transformation of California, home of Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan, from a swing to the bluest of blue states, the demonization of Hispanics by the national GOP is turning very critical battleground states much more blue.

What should be most ominous to the GOP is what happened in these four states heavily contested by the Democrats. In this election, the center-left coalition went after the Hispanic vote as never before. It dramatically increased turnout in the southwestern states, and saw an historic shift of the enormous Florida Hispanic vote from Republican to Democrat. Similar investments in future years in states like Arizona and Texas could very well make these states - home to George W. Bush and John McCain - as blue as New Mexico and Colorado are today.

The 2008 election not only marked the election of America's first African-American president, it also saw the strong and clear political emergence of a new, large and dynamic generation and the realignment of American politics for the next 40 years.

The first large wave of the Millennial Generation, young Americans born from 1982-2003, entered the electorate to decisively support President-elect Barack Obama. Young voters preferred Obama over U.S. Sen. John McCain by a greater than 2:1 margin (66% vs. 32%). And, dispelling the myth that young people never vote, Millennials cast ballots in larger numbers than young voters had in any recent presidential election. The overall contribution of young voters to the electorate ticked up slightly from 17% in 2004 to 18% this year, but in a larger electorate, that represents millions more voters. Proving that this generation of young voters is committed to participating in America's civic life, it appears that a majority of eligible Millennials cast their ballot, continuing the rise in the percentage of young people who voted from its low of 37% among Generation Xers in 1996.

The increased size and overwhelming unity of young voters added significantly to Barack Obama's popular vote margin over John McCain of about six percentage points nationally. Without the contribution of young voters Obama's popular vote lead would have been a much narrower 1.5% points. Moreover, it appears that the youth vote was ultimately decisive in Obama's close wins in the formerly red states of Indiana and North Carolina.

As a result of this decisive support from the Millennial Generation, the Democratic Party is likely to be the dominant political force in the United States in the decades ahead. Millennials identify as Democrats by the same 2:1 margin that they voted for Barack Obama. Political science tells us that once individual and generations form their party identification they retain it for a lifetime. This will allow the Millennial Generation to take its place as America's next great Democratic civic generation just as their GI Generation great grandparents did nearly 80 years ago. Welcome to the Millennial era.

These are exciting times. Please look for more analysis from the NDN Team soon and check our blog often for new content and thinking.

Best,

Melissa Merz
Vice President, Communications
NDN