by Patti W.
Member since:
September 8, 2006

Fred Barnes predicts Mccain wins electoral college

November 02, 2008 03:27 PM EST (Updated: November 02, 2008 03:28 PM EST)
views: 805 | rating: 6.9/10 (19 votes) | comments: 59
Fred Barnes was a white house correspondent for 10 years and is the cheif correspondent on the PBS series National Desk. He has written for  Reader's Digest, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Spectator, Washingtonian, The Public Interest, Policy Review and both The Sunday Telegraph and Sunday Times of London.

The Media Guide gave Barnes four stars - its highest rating ,and said he is"a great political reporter-columnist" whose material is "exquisitely timed."

Barnes is a graduate of the University of Virginia and was a Neiman Fellow at Harvard University.

 

He has predicted a win in electoral votes for Mccain-

Obama 252

Mccain 286

 

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Comments: 59

Kay & Snowy Cat Nov 2, 2008, 3:56pm EST
Is Fred back on the sauce?
Carla G. Nov 2, 2008, 4:43pm EST
This is ludicrous. Obama is far ahead in the electoral college.
Lisa C. Nov 2, 2008, 4:44pm EST
I would love to see how he came up with this.
Carla G. Nov 2, 2008, 4:44pm EST
Kay, I think you may be right.
Charles Temm JR Nov 2, 2008, 4:45pm EST
Sorry, I like Barnes at times but there is now way that any win by McCain will not be a tiny, narrow one. I wouldn't put much money, even at odds of McCain winning at this point.

Obama will win but maybe by only 20 or so electoral points.
Robin"Buffy's Stunt Double" D. Nov 2, 2008, 4:47pm EST
This goes against just about every model prediction out there.
Patti W. Nov 2, 2008, 4:59pm EST
There are a few predicting it,John Zogby(one of the leading pollsters),Bill Kristol,Gov.Crist,Limbaugh(but he's a nutcase),Kellyanne Conway,the winner of the Washington Post’s Crystal Ball Award. Nine days before the election, she predicted the precise outcome in the popular vote — 51 percent for George Bush and 48 percent for John Kerry. And she is ceo of Polling Co.,to name a few
Sam C. Nov 2, 2008, 5:01pm EST
Barnes was an editor of The Weekly Standard. That's like Bill O'Reilly predicting a McCain win.
Tim Nelson Nov 2, 2008, 5:07pm EST
I'm predicting a "worse President ever" crown to whoever wins.
Patti W. Nov 2, 2008, 5:10pm EST
Well they will have to wrestle it away from Bush
Adele G. Nov 2, 2008, 5:50pm EST
Fred Barnes has it right more times than wrong.
Carla G. Nov 2, 2008, 6:04pm EST
Bush has that title, hands down, Tim. No contest.
Don(time to open them FEMA camps) S. Nov 2, 2008, 6:24pm EST
Yeah riiiight

Photobucket
Amy H. Nov 2, 2008, 6:57pm EST
Thanks for posting your content to the Group: We comment back
Elaine B. Nov 2, 2008, 7:02pm EST
Obama will win as McCain is behind.

Obama/Biden '08'
Jerry Gloucher Nov 2, 2008, 7:07pm EST
If you look at the recent polling data for OH, PA, MO, NC and now VA (the Richmond Times-Dispatch calls it a dead-heat as of today), you'll see that Barnes' predication isn't all that crazy. Toss in NV and possibly IA -- where Obama was inexplicably campaigning just yesterday -- and it's easy to see how McCain hits 286. I personally think McCain will win -- but only by single digits -- but to accuse Barnes of hitting the sauce based on his prediction is a bit off the mark. I think there are going to be a lot of pundits -- who are now predicting a landslide -- with egg on their collective faces come Nov. 5. Like any speculative bubble, when this many people have a "buy" on Obama, it's probably time to sell.

By the way, how do you think Obama's just-discovered commentary on the coal industry is going to play in PA and WV over these next 36 hours?

http://media.newsbusters.org/stories/hidden-audio-obama-tells-sf-chronicle-he-will-bankrupt-coal-industry.html?q=blogs/p-j-gladnick/2008/11/02/hidden-audio-obama-tells-sf-chronicle-he-will-bankrupt-coal-industry
Dorothy H. Nov 2, 2008, 7:08pm EST
Anything can happen.
Tim Nelson Nov 2, 2008, 7:19pm EST
Carla G.

My full prediction is that the next three Presidents will top Bush. Picking the worst of the three is tricky. In Russias case, Gorbachov took most of the heat, even though he did a good job keeping the country solvent. In my expectations, that would be Obama. The next two might have lower expectations on them.
Sam C. Nov 2, 2008, 7:43pm EST
I just the reviews of 19 pundits. 18 had Obama by 310 to 360 margin. The 19th was Barnes, a card carrying member of the extremeist right. Let's talk credibility and odds.
Elizabeth Madrigal Nov 2, 2008, 8:52pm EST
Just because he went to Harvard doesn't automatically make him a liberal, friend. He is deluded and one of those drinking the McCain/Palin koolaid. Obama will win.
sharon SugarMomma is a wise woman, Nov 2, 2008, 9:03pm EST
On the sauce and out of his gourd.
Prima Donna Nov 2, 2008, 10:28pm EST
You neglected to mention that Fred Barnes is a commentator on Fox News. I heard Mr. Barnes last evening talking about how unfair it is that there is early voting -- because there could always be a November surprise in the last couple of days that would somehow sway people in the last hours. They talked of a terrorist incident, almost as though they were hoping it would happen. This is the kind of thinking that comes from Fred Barnes.
Lori F. Nov 2, 2008, 10:31pm EST
Jerry where do you get that Iowa is a toss up? We are firmly behind Obama. People like you and Fred need to share whatever it is you are smokin...it must be good stuff.
Prima Donna Nov 2, 2008, 10:55pm EST
That said, we must work doubly hard to make sure that doesn't happen.
Ellie !. Nov 2, 2008, 10:59pm EST
I'm scared...just like I was 4 years ago, AFTER the election...I knew bad times were ahead. If Americans go stupid again, that's a really bad thing. Read McCain's book...it would being Christian is reason enough to vote for someone.
Ellie !. Nov 2, 2008, 11:01pm EST
...it would be enough...not that being Christian is reason enough to vote for or against for someone.
(MY fingers can't keep up with my brain!)
OK, in order to win, McCain has to win every toss-up state. Lets assume there are 7 of them and he has an even chance to win each. He has one chance in 128 of willing the electoral vote.

It's not impossible, just improbable.
Bruce K. Nov 3, 2008, 4:41am EST
I used to like Barnes when he was a moderate on the McLaughlin Report, now he is just a nobody wacko. I hope he didn't wager his future in Vegas on that prediction.
Patricia I. Nov 3, 2008, 4:53am EST
He may be closer then all these polls that have been tallied.
Time is getting short, soon we will all know for sure!
James C. Nov 3, 2008, 4:57am EST
I can see this happening but I don't think it will. The Obama people know that they have to push right up to the election day. Obama has to have a wider spread than would a Caucasian candidate. I believe he is well aware of that and is working hard to overcome this bias. We'll soon know!
James C. Nov 3, 2008, 4:59am EST
Ellie,

Since both men are Christian, where does this come into play?
Ariel Storm Nov 3, 2008, 5:10am EST
While I may not agree with Fred Barnes' prediction I think this election is going to be a lot closer than many of the pundits are predicting.
Bruce K. Nov 3, 2008, 5:13am EST
I think we are going to be surprised when we find out the landslide. Whether we find out the next day, or after months of legal wrangling is the question.
Prima Donna Nov 3, 2008, 6:27am EST
Let' do our best to make sure Sen. Obama wins in a landslide to make up for any foul play.
Robert A. Nov 3, 2008, 6:47am EST
I have a birthday coming up. I predict on that day I'll win the lottery, Publishers Clearing House drawing and get hit by lightning.

Fred Barnes seems to allow more fanciful thinking to enter into his prognostication process than I do.
Kay & Snowy Cat Nov 3, 2008, 7:06am EST
Robert, it will be some really bad luck for you to win the lottery, then get hit by lightening, don't you think? :)
Kay & Snowy Cat Nov 3, 2008, 7:08am EST
Oh Prima, forget the foul play stuff! Obama is going to win....unless...
Robert A. Nov 3, 2008, 7:32am EST
Yes Kay & Snowy Cat, you can't just predict things you want to happen though. Otherwise, if McCain is declared the winner, I'd be likely to move the lightning strike prediction up a few days.
Aunt Boni H. Nov 3, 2008, 7:49am EST
We can't stop now.
OBAMA/BIDEN '08
Kay & Snowy Cat Nov 3, 2008, 8:17am EST
Robert A: LOL!!
Rory M. Nov 3, 2008, 12:07pm EST
The desperate usually grasp at any straw they can.

For every Fred Barnes you can find to quote, there are at least 20 pundits with equally impressive resumes who predict the opposite.

None of them know.

The polls indicated an Obama victory that might even be a massive sweep.

Anything from the "Bradley effect" to massive Republican vote rigging might change that. But anyone using any real electoral predictive acumen would not seriously predict a McCain victory at this point.

I suspect Fred just wants McCain to win, that's all.
Capt Seaweed Nov 3, 2008, 12:40pm EST
It will be interesting to see how Obamas statement about bankrupting the coal industry that surfaced yesterday will play out in Pa. Oh, WVa. etc where the race is tight. But then again if the press refuses to print it as with all the other negative attributes they have over looked in the past it will be one more thing the eltorate can be angry about after tomorrows election. The 2/3rds of the Democratic voting block that thinks "change" means "fix it" are going to be really pissed in the up coming months when the honemoon is over and they start getting the shaft. The rest of us will try not to say "we told you so".
The Obama interview with the coal quote has been available on the SF Chronicle web site since 1/17/08. If anyone's interested the url is .
Sheryl O. Nov 3, 2008, 2:38pm EST
I would say that was much more than a long-shot. That's fantasy at this point. It is telling that he is employed by Fox News, though. They like fantasy.
glenda j. Nov 3, 2008, 3:21pm EST
ok
Robin"Buffy's Stunt Double" D. Nov 3, 2008, 3:30pm EST
I doesn't look likely. Today, the question being asked is if McCain wins, how will they be able to explain it?
Capt Seaweed Nov 3, 2008, 3:55pm EST
Robin,

I assume by "they" you mean the Obama campain staff who ---after running a brilliant campain and covincing 1/2 of America to vote for a canidate who is not qualified, hangs out with men of questionable character and anti American political views, and has promised to change the country from democracy to socialism ---- would have to explian how they failed to deliver the presidency. No credit given to the people of America for waking up at the last minute and coming to thier sences.
Bruce K. Nov 3, 2008, 5:05pm EST
It was very significant when Christopher Buckley endorsed Obama.
Sheryl O. Nov 3, 2008, 5:05pm EST
"coming to thier sences."? What is a "sence"?
Is a "sence" one of those gatherings where people commune with spirts?
Patti W. Nov 3, 2008, 7:03pm EST
On CNN they(Wolf and Stephenopolous?) were just looking at the electoral map and said if Mccain takes Pennsylvania he can win the electoral vote.
Tim Nelson Nov 3, 2008, 8:56pm EST
People commune with spirits at Chuck's Pub and Grill.

Order up.
Capt Seaweed Nov 3, 2008, 9:56pm EST
Sheryl and Nippy,

A "sence" is what intelligent people know is an obvious typo and what decent and fair minded people would never have bothered commenting on.
"...what decent and fair minded people would never have bothered commenting on. "

Exactly.
Andrea (Ms. Conservative) L. Nov 5, 2008, 11:56pm EST
Leaving a 10 as my comment!

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