Race is blowing wide open - Thanks Sarah!

Don't get too confident. McCain will not roll over, so expect some big all-stops-out show of force.

Minnesota BETTER vote for Obama !!!

Missouri looks way too close to call.

Now it's time for the October surprise.

Virginia (my home for 20+ years) is making me proud right now. I didn't know many there who were not Republicans...

So what is going to change if Obama is elected? Nothing except he will want more corporate bailout by then just like he does now.

It doesn't matter which one gets in it will be the same old screwing for the public.

"Colorado Dems ‘Educate the Idiots Campaign’ Targets ‘Minorites,’ GEDs, Drop-Outs…"

Too bad the site is down... they are getting hammered width traffic. Anywho, typical dems going after their base. Hey -- at least they're honest about it ;)

Colorado Dems ‘Educate the Idiots Campaign’ Targets ‘Minorites,’ GEDs, Drop-Outs -- the site may be down a while since everybody including Drudge is linking to it.

Good to see the polls going in this direction finally.

Palin is beginning to look like the third member of the Democratic ticket.

I'm surprised MO is leaning toward Obama. Don't get me wrong, I'm thrilled, but still surprised. I live in a smallish MO city of 70,000 and nearly everyone I talk to is voting for McCain. I hope Obama continues to pull ahead.

Obama is doing well and needs to go pedal to the metal here on out. Folks are seeing how phony the GOP are this election after years of not being able to.

David- I agree with you. In the words of Han Solo, don't get cocky, kid.

I live in Virginia, and I can tell you that there are a lot of Republicans in the wouth half of the state where I live. It's possible that Obama might win here by an eyelash, if mcCain cannot come up with some good news. But Obama winning here by 7 or 8 points? that is not going to happen.

Of course with have 30+ days to go. Time for Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers ad. I think that will kill them if they go that route.

McCain lost the debate, not because he was not sharp, but people did not like his attitude. People are fed up with ads driven by guilt by association. Besides, McCain has his Keating 5 and pastor associations.

I am optimistic because Obama is fighting in ways Kerry and Gore did not do. This guy is no pushover, he is taking it right to them.

As I said, first indication, we shall see.

The only poll that matters is on Nov 5th...so sleep in the day before and make sure you get to the polls on Wed :)

Very funny Don. This no 1988. Those people are voting right now these days. Ohio is voting already. So, drive by "Make sure you vote tomorrow" on Nov 4th won't work.

McCain lost the debate, not because he was not sharp, but people did not like his attitude.

Maybe, but he also wasn't sharp. Take that debate apart line-by-line (I did, and posted it) and look at the "substance" - well, try. It isn't there.

It will be interesting to see the impact of early voting on the totals. Ohio was one place where minorities got screwed the last election with overcrowded booths and long lines. The Repubs got beat in court trying to stop it.

Watch the debate, Palin will convert millions of uncommitted voters, both democrats and republicans, independents as well. She will win the debate hand down, even with the media already predicting a Biden victory. She will pick up millions of voters tomorrow night and that will swing the election and the polls to McCain.

Sorry Ray - uh that's actually laughable but anyway-
good post, Jared and I agree - thanks Sarah - you really made folks realize that McSame might be a joke after all.
Salud

Palin? The Dumb bimbo? There must be another Palin, the Palin who is running with McLame is just going to sink deeper. Unless science can grow a brain to transplant on that bimbo, she is toast.

I enjoyed your article...a great read.

Watch the debate, Palin will convert millions of uncommitted voters, both democrats and republicans, independents as well. She will win the debate hand down, even with the media already predicting a Biden victory. She will pick up millions of voters tomorrow night and that will swing the election and the polls to McCain.
Ray L., Oct 1, 2008, 10:43pm EDT


You mean like she meet with the World leaders and couldn't use better talking language or remember names??? Also she couldn't even go better in a interview with Couric and she is a woman...what gives? She is a joke when it comes down to hard questions and give answer that shows her intelligence...what isn't she for Intelligent Design now way...

Given the accuracy of the polls in the last election cycle I wouldn't rely too heavily on polls to determine who is currently ahead in the battleground states.

Given the accuracy of the polls? Exit polls were wrong, the polls going in had Bush ahead. I agree with you however. The polls are not absolute predictors of what will happen.

This is way premature. Real Clear Politics shows an average poll result for Florida of Obama up by three, with a range of Obama plus 8 in the Quinnipiac to McCain up 1 in the SurveyUSA.

For Minnesota, the range is from a tie to Obama plus 11 depending on the poll.

For Missouri, the range is from Obama plus 1 tg McCain plus 5.

For Nevada, the range is from McCain plus 2 to Obama plus 4.

For Virginia, the range is from McCain plus 3 to Obama plus 9.

The range. LOL.

Would you also point out that the left side of the range is the oldest data recorded and the right side, the most recent. Meaning the trend is with Obama. RCP updates the range every ten days. In a couple of days, the lower bounds of the ranges will be dropped.

After the debate tonight, I predict there will be more Obama supporters.

I hope you are right. Debates are easier. The person asking the question can't stop you and ask you for specificity like in one on one interview. Palin can talk platitude. Such as I read all newspapers, there are a host of Supreme Court decisions I don't agree with. When asked specifically which one, zippo, nada. In a debate nobody will ask for examples.

Actually, the RCP average changes daily. But the trend is clearly toward Obama. The point of my comment is that you can't pick any one poll and derive meaning from it. There is still a wide variance and it's too early to draw definitive conclusions. This is just a snapshot in time.

This has always been Obama's race to lose. The real question is why he isn't running away with this thing.

Letting Palin go ahead with the debate is the biggest throw of the dice McCain has made so far. To bad they'll come up cats eyes.

Every single time Palin has to talk off the hip she blows it. She's not the gal you'd like to have a beer with. She's the idiot that sits at the end of the bar and never gets anyone's jokes.

AC,
According to electoral-vote.com, current state by state polls show if the election were held today obama would receive 338 with McCain receiving 185 and 15 undecided (polls in North Carolina are dead even.)

I'd say Obama IS running away with it.

Great post Jered... a 10

RCP average changes daily because of the daily tracking polls. The polls that are taken to compute that average in itself has a 10-day window.

Oh, if I wanted to take one poll to show some big blowouts, I would have taken Quinnipiac:

PA, Obama +15
OH, Obama +8
FL, Obama +8

RCP dumps the oldest data. Their average include some of the latest. National poll tracks 10 days and state polls only take the last 8 or so (i.e. RCP Florida numbers only account for 9/27 to 9/30). As they dump the oldest the gap will be wider if Obama maintains those numbers.

100% correct Jared.


Bottom line what's the difference between the trend is with Obama and what is said on this article?

Bottom line McCain is tanking. Sarah Palin is hurting him more than she is helping.

1. She can't campaign on her own. Since nominated, Palin has done 5 solo events.

2. Palin bombs one on one interviews.

3. While Biden does the round of the media, Palin is in house arrest learning where Dubai and Abu Dhabi are.

4. Palin rallies the left. No evidence she brings any vote other than the one a republican should get (the base).

5. Last and most important. She is a time bomb that makes everyone nervous. She can blow it up any time. One conservative talk show said a month ago that Palin was a bomb who was going to blow somebody: either Obama or McCain. It looks like it won't be Obama.

Oh, after my last comment I read the following:

Overall, Palin is viewed favorably by 47% of likely voters and unfavorably by 40%. But her numbers are worse among women than men: 45% of all women surveyed have a negative opinion of Palin, compared to 42% who view her positively. Fifty-two percent of men have a favorable opinion, while 35% are in the unfavorable camp.

[...]

Palin's unpopularity with women may prove a drag on the ticket with the very constituency she initially inspired. Obama now leads McCain by 17 points among likely female voters, 55%-38%.

-----------------------------

Regardless of the final outcome, that won't change much. Less than 5 weeks to go. The NEW factor is over. People had a chance to take a look at Palin and they don't like what they heard. You can blame it on the media if you want, but 'charged rape victims', 'Troopergate', teenage pregnancy in your own home while you oppose sex education, 'bridge to nowhere', 'road to nowhere', lies about earmarks requests, lies about selling a plane on ebay, and so is no way to introduce a VP to the country.

True or not is not the issue here. When someone has those issues hanging over their head, you don't pick them as VP unless their is nobody else who has their qualifications. Clearly she is nothing extraordinary on that front.

Jeff could be right.

We've still got those hackable DIEBOLD voting machines, the fact that we have a huge mail-in vote so Republican election officials can make sure those for Obama are dumped in some sewer somewhere, and we still have some sort of October surprise to deal with.

I remember how stunned we were over the Supremes and Al Gore caving to the crocks in Florida, and then we were sure Kerry had won it, no problem...so while I still want to believe there is some semblance of democracy left SOMEWHERE in this pitiful country of ours, we might not see it on election day.

The only thing I'm thinking is that Obama's supporters are generally young and smart. They are VERY tech savvy, as opposed to my 85 year old mother and all her right wingy friends who don't even own a computer, so I would imagine they would have teams out in force on election day to try and keep an eye on some of the most likely trouble spots...

Jared- today's news has mcCain's campaign pulling the money plug on advertising in michigan. Why bother, they figure it's Obama country now so no point to spending any more $ there.