Russia thought it had tamed the Muslim regions on its southern flank when it quelled a rebellion in Chechnya, but trouble is brewing again.
Barely noticed by the outside world, increasing violence and clashes between federal forces and rebels in Ingushetia, just west of Chechnya, threaten to destabilise the north Caucasus.
Ninety-three people were killed in clashes in the year to the end of August, the local branch of human rights group Memorial says -- a big death toll for a region with a population of only 470,000
If you think we are averse to to using militant Islamists for our own aims you just haven't been paying attention the last 30 years.
As Stratfor noted in its latest weekly Intelligence Guidance:
A civil war in Chechnya is building up between the Kadyrov and Yamadayev factions. We need to see if the Kremlin can clamp down on this quickly enough to prevent another full-blown Chechen war and to prevent outside powers from jumping into the fray. If a war does erupt, what's the potential for it to spread to Dagestan, Ingushetia and Georgia in the northern Caucasus? Most importantly, will the United States see instability in Chechnya as an opportunity to tie Russia's hands? We need to look for signs of U.S., as well as Saudi, involvement in Chechnya. The Kremlin will be moving quickly to try to lock the situation down.
Two can play the game the Russians are playing, and the US by 'possibly' bringing Dagestan and Ingushetia into the 'Kavkaz mix' makes life miserable for Putin and Medvedev in Moscow, believe me.
Nota bene: This is just analysis. I am not saying it is morally right or morally wrong. I'm just simply pointing out what might be. Are we clear on that?
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Comments: 13
Featured in the Triple Name Club.
The Russians have been choking on the Caucasus for over a century. If you ever run across it, read "The Sabres of Paradise," which is the story of Shamir (yes, no coincidence that the Chechnyian rebel calls himself that), who held off the Tsar's forces for more than thirty years in the mountains of the Caucasus. It's a fascinating book that illuminates much about the present conflict...and it reads like a dime novel!
Now 41!
Russia is too militarily powerful at the moment to be seriously threatened by Iran, and arguably too powerful to be threatened by China, but much of Russia's military power is 'fossil' military power, left over from the Cold War. Russia doesn't have the economy over the long term to replace it as it wears out, much less expand it. Of course that's at least partially true of US military and especially economic power too, and it is part of the reason why China, Russia and Iran have more to fear from each other in the long run than any of them have to fear from the US.