A new web memorandum from the Heritage Foundation argues that much of what is currently being done in the fight against terrorism will remain in place under the next presidential administration, no matter who is elected in November.
In "Reflecting on 9/11: What the Next Administration Should Do About Terrorism," Dr. Kim Holmes says the first step is the maintenance of "forward pressure overseas." The offensive nature of President Bush's strategy against terrorism should continue no matter who is elected in November, Holmes says. This is a recognition that we will be in Afghanistan and Iraq for some time to come, and that either candidate will be left an ongoing overseas commitment by the Bush Administration.
Next, Holmes says, "...much of the homeland security apparatus created after 9/11-the Department of Homeland Security, the new Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) rules, intelligence apparatus reforms-will continue." The memorandum says neither McCain nor Obama will significantly change what has been done under President Bush, and cites Obama's shift on the FISA issue, his support of the newest counterinsurgency manual, and his advocacy of more civilian manpower in the fight against terrorists as evidence.
Third, according to the memorandum, since terrorist groups are adaptive to American strategies in the war on terror, the next president will have to figure out two things: how to deal with Pakistan and what the end state in Iraq will look like. President Bush is already taking steps to increase pressure on Pakistan, and those measures will likely continue, including cross-border raids from Afghanistan by U.S. forces. Iraq is in a much better state today than it was just a year and a half ago, and no new president is going to want to see those gains reversed by creating a security vacuum that could cause the Iraqi government to implode.
Finally, Holmes says, the threat of terrorist acquiring weapons of mass destruction will be an issue that remains after President Bush leaves office. Since the greatest perceived threat for making such an event a reality is Iran, the next president will likely opt for continuity in the current course, which means maintaining the joint U.S.-European approach, rather than abrupt change that could isolate and estrange current allies.
The memorandum also points out a few differences between the candidates. One such difference, Holmes says, is that Obama would likely focus more on economic aid and the root causes of terrorism than would McCain. Another would probably be a different approach toward nuclear arms control, Holmes says. The memorandum also says that Obama would be less likely to invest in long-range conventional military modernization and strategy.
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