HAVE THE REPUBLICANS SHOT THEIR BOLT?
My fantasy of the Republicans soon imploding and or exploding looks increasingly on the money. Todays polls indicate that Obama is still a couple of points ahead even after the Pallin enthrallment. The Republicans hoped not onlt to blunt the positive polls of Obama but get an anticipated surge. I think the Republicans may well have shot their bolt.
So lets see - McCain and Pallin have suddenly become the party of change. Experience is out - change is in. It is hard to comprehend how they are going to change as they have probably alienated most of the Democratic congress with their sarcastic, mean spirited disrespectful and often grossly distorted rhetoric.
They are bankrupt on original ideas. There is almost nothing concrete mentioned about how to fix the economy. They lie about Obamas' energy policy saying he is against drilling and neuclear energy. Not true.
They dis Obamas' experience as a community organizer and by extenstion minimize every community organizer in Amercia, I know first hand that these jobs play a crucial role in America.
Sarah Pallin can only duck the mean reporters questioning for just so long and even the fanatic Republican will have to doubt that their politcal rock star is for real.
Meanwhile trooper Gate hangs over her head and could the rumor about her having an affair possibly be true? And if it is I guess there would be universal Republican hand clapping because we all know Sarah Pit Bull is from a normal dysfunctional family just like most Amercians are. Why shouldn;t she be expected to have an affiar on her resume along with all of her other accomplishments. But of course this is just conjecture. I would be amazed if the rumor is true as where would she hacve found enough time from her 17 roles to sneak away to a love tryst. This rumor must be patently false.
However the politcal noose is tightening as we speak.
Fact: The Democrats are only 27 electoral votes away from winning the election as two more leaning to Obama states are now in sure bets for the Democrats.
I think Governor Palin will have to pose for the October issue of playboy or the rumor that the US is on the verge of bombing Iran proves to be accurate.
On top of it Obama is increasingly more pointed and I believe legitimately angry. Apparently alot of Americans like toughness. I predict they will see a side of Obama that will make headlines and blunt Sarah pit bull. It will be interesting to see how she sounds once defanged.
You want style and personality - watch for the debates. I think by the time they roll around the Republicans will be issuing free bottle of Pepto Bismal to all of their workers.
For the reasons described above I think a Republican panic is probable and relatively soon. And if I am right, it couldn't happen to a more deserving group of so called leaders.
Bring on the debates ! and God Bless America. Country First!
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Gallup Poll - Election News
Gallup Daily: Obama’s Edge Shrinks to 2 Points September 6, 2008
Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain has been shrinking since the start of the Republican National Convention, and he now holds just a two percentage point advantage -- 47% to 45% -- making the race too close to call.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. As McCain has begun to chip away as Obama’s convention bounce, most of his gains have come among women voters.
McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of the nation’s voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 57%
Obama/Biden '08!
But it is close.
Let us hope. Check out my article, Gibbs - the Kilkenny letter on Palin.
Now the bloody fight begins.
May the best two men win: Obama and Biden.
What country do you live in Gibbs. Iwould surmise not America as you are to out of touch of the what the effect of Palin has been on the Republican party. Even with blinders on getting information by the slow process of osmosis you can't conclude the Repubs are panicing.
re: " if McCain dies in office would you really feel comfortable with her as the Commander in Chief? "
Thats the most exciting element about Palin as VP. She will be the first electable women to be in the right position to be the first female President.
It is incredibly sad and weird that some people are still attacking Palin personally after Obama even told them to stop--it's reflecting how desperate some people view Obama's chances right now to resort to things like this. So if they don't respect Obama as a political candidate when he said Palin's personal life and her family are off limits (actually trying to do the right thing toward his opponent's VP), why in the world do they want to elect him? Apparently to them he actually meant, "Keep going with this until people are so disgusted they won't vote for me--because they associate me with this mess you're creating!" Normal people from both parties are just tired of hearing it...you're not helping your own party and are making it look bad.
The differences on the issues are enough for people to make a decision. I'm voting for McCain and Palin because of their stances, and I'm confident that our side has a chance of winning because of what was said at the RNC--which you apparently didn't watch. I think McCain laid out a great framework that he can build details on as the election nears.
I like that the problems of jobs and energy can be addressed with the same solution of dometic drilling of oil and natural gas being opened up, that government is being treated as a partner to the American people instead of a solution to all of our problems, and that they're very clear in their policies regarding foreign policy and terrorism. I also like that there's going to be more action in holding education accountable and giving familes more options. I was already going to vote for McCain based on what I knew of him already, but the convention just confirmed (in my mind anyway) that I'm happy with my decision.
We're just going to have to see how things pan out in November--I do think it's going to be close, and there's no reason right now for either side to feel overconfident.
What does this mean? Well, either....
1) The polling formulas are incredibly flawed (and essentially worthless). This view is supported anecdotely by the exit polls of the 2004 election suggesting Kerry was way ahead in states he lost by significant margins. Other anecdotal evidence of this is the many polls that were off during this current primary season.
2) People are fickle. That is, we change our "opinions" based on nothing more substantive than whether someone wore a blue pantsuit vs an orange pantsuit. We listen to the Democratic convention speeches and the polls go up for the Democrats, then listen to the Republican convention speeches and the polls go up for the Republicans. We answer polls based on the "news flash" item of the day. This suggests we really aren't paying attention.
Bottom line is that polls are inherently unreliable, both because of their own inadequacies and because of the inadequacies of the people being polled.
The only poll that counts is the one on November 4th. And frankly, I'm very confident with that one.
Just to add a little more to your analysis of polling. Polls are conducted by people calling from land lines to other people with land lines. I don't know about you, but I don't even answer my home phone anymore. I use my cell phone.
Most younger folks, (Those under 40;-) use cell phones exclusively. It is the younger, more tech savvy crowd who works for and will be voting for Obama. These folks were not even counted.
Obama got an 8 point bounce. So far, McCain has recouped 6 of those.
I also think there is still an "800 pound gorilla" in the room. The polls indicate that Obama's race is not an issue with most of the Democratic voters. But, is there a difference between what they say and how they will vote?
I would hope not but I have seen no analysis or discussion on this.
And of course McCain is speaking also about himself. He authorized 90 percent of what he now says is broken. He has now seen the light and is focusing less on experience than change. However his change is not Obama's change. It is also diificult to discern how - given the Republican rhetorical "shock and awe" kick ass approach this method is going to entice the democrats to cooperate if the Reblicans should win.
Then the electoral map indicates that presently Obama will get all of the electoral votes that Kerry got. Plus there are 15 or so usually Republican states in play.
Additionally there is a huge youth and minority registration progam which draws all Republican attempts to even out the new numbers of voters.
Additionally Obama has more money to spend even though the Republican do have the potential for reducing the gap.
The Democrats have calculatedly allowed Palin to shoot her bolt. Just in the last day has Obama begun to counter attack which is not relfected in the pllls as yet. Since it must be readily apparent that she is running more on style than substance I think the vast numbers of American voters will see through the smoke and mirrors and come back or towards the Democrats.
If you want to view what appears to be a fair and reasonable account of all 4 candidates I suggest you watch CNN's treatment of their biographies which is on running. I, for one, am highly impressed with Obama's management style, his obvious leadership abilities, and his grace and intelligence under pressure. Watch the CNN program - you will see what I mean.
The only real argument the Republicans have is that of divided government helps to preserve actual checks and balances. But here again - there is a problem in that Palin - no matter how taken one is with her personality and style - is simply unfit to step in and be the President.
Putting your hyped up and incorrect polls aside, The election will be won by John McCain with 274 electoral votes to "Barack America's" 264, a totla that is increased to 278 to 260 if McCain picks off New Hampshire.
Furthermore; if you want to focus on polls, you are still wrong because within the next few days you will be seeing non-partisan polls coming out with results that put McCain-Palin ahead of Obama-Biden by 4 or more points and above the margins of error.
This is all a result of the fact that not every American is as gullible as you, Mr. Williams. Most Americans understand real facts and can seperate them from propoganda.
Most Americans understand that in the face of events such as 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina, our nation's economy still had it's greates growth in recent history. They realize that although we may now be in a rough patch at the moment, our economy is strong enough to get through it. Furthermore; when we do get out of this patch, most Americans do not want to return to the failed, liberal, economic policies of Jimmy Carter, policies that Barack Obama offers up to us in all his speeches.
It should also be noted that in your attempt to paint Republicans as lacking of ideas, you neglect to honestly look at the history of Republican innovations in policies for the last 30 years. From the creation of urban enterprise zones to the adoption of faith based initiatives, Republicans have been the pre-eminent force behind innovation in governemnt. Democrats simply repeat their tax and spend philosophy and drive to a repeat of the days of malaise brought to us by Jimmy Carter and his liberal leadership.
Most importantly, American's always look for change, especially for the better...hence the much used marketing phrase "new and improved". In the case of Barack Obama's that "new and improved" image has worn off. People have begun to look beyond his pretty words and are looking at their meaning. In doing so they are more and more reluctant to adopt Obama's style over McCain's substance.
People are willing to accept change, especially if it is in the form of reform in government's business as usual practices. That being the case they are becoming more enthusiastic in the McCain-Palin ticket that is comprised of two people who have repeatedly stood up to corruption and their own political party to advance causes that are right for the nation. The only thing that Barack Obama has advanced is his career.
So, where you get the idea that Republicans are in a panic is beyond me becaise they are not panicked, they are emboldened. Which brings me to another error that you articulate.......American's do like toughness. However those who do like toughness are not gravitating to Obama/Biden but actually landing on the side of McCain/Palin.
And during McCain's speech, Obama was being interviewed. They never have said how many people might have watched that.
You forgot the most imortant item to go with that fact. McCains speech was carried on fewer networks/channels than Obama was.
Sept. 3
Warning for College Student Voters
Scenes from St. Paul, Day 3, Sept. 4
The 2008 Republican Party Platform, Sept. 2
Theses are Forever, Feb. 28
Does Clinton Have Copyright Problem?, Feb. 25
The Election Challenge for Campuses, Jan. 28
" Last week, Virginia’s Montgomery County, home to Virginia Tech, issued a press release regarding proper protocol for college students registering to vote. In interviews with Inside Higher Ed Tuesday, it was described by turns as “unsubstantiated,” “chilling,” and (more generously) as not “incredibly encouraging or friendly.”
It reads, in part: “The Code of Virginia states that a student must declare a legal residence in order to register. A legal residence can be either a student’s permanent address from home or their current college residence. By making Montgomery County your permanent residence, you have declared your independence from your parents and can no longer be claimed as a dependent on their income tax filings — check with your tax professional. If you have a scholarship attached to your former residence, you could lose this funding. And, if you change your registration to Montgomery County, Virginia Code requires you to change your driver’s license and car registration to your present address within 30 days.”
There is no way I can possibly grasp the thinking of supporting a repub after what they have done ot this country.
Energized by what? That the repubs have screwed this country royally and now you want to solidify the screwing by installing another yo yo there. Do you not see any signs of reality or do you not give a damn?
Now there's the kind of voters that the Republican party desperately needs! People who don't think, don't look at what is happening in the country or the world. The only thing that is important is...REPUBLICAN. That's all they need to know.
I sure hope there are not a lot of people like that. There are some, probably a lot.
But I hope SOME Republicans will actually THINK before they vote. If they do, McCain is in a lot of trouble.
It reminds me of the line from Gilbert & Sullivan's "HMS Pinafore" when the captain of the Pinafore explains how he got his job:
The Repubs deserve to get shellaced in November because they proved themselves no different than the Dems once in power. The poor ol Dem Congress may have had their feelings hurt by the mean Repub McCain but it has not slowed down their money grasping ways since they took over. The corruption is the same, just now the names have changed. Dodd helping out his friends in Countrywide for a little mutual help was no problem for either his party or the press. Rangel getting sweetheart real estate deals in NYC is ok too because he's part of the party of change.
Yep the more things change, the more they stay the same. The Dems, if they gain total control in November, will prove one party rule is still corrupt no matter who is that party.