SURPRISE! SURPRISE! SURPRISE!
As I am composing this post we are probably within hours of hearing Obama's choice for VP. The pundits and the pollsters and even the New York Times apparently has it all figured out. It is supposed to be Senator Biden. I don't agree.
Let's look at the harsh facts.
Just yesterday the cumulative polls have detected a significant shift of momentum away from Obama to a 5 point lead for McCain. Worse, if you are an Obama supporter, the lead in most of the swing states has either evaporated, even, or in McCain's favor.
In part - although McCain, is not exactly making people swoon, Obama can't seem to dispell doubts about him that make many people feel neutral about both candidates. McCain' s campaign is also working.
- Pandering to groups you have previously derided works.
- Being outrageoulsy negative works.
- Hammering simplistic solutions for complex problems works.
- Sounding as if there is no doubt about any position works.
So here we are ironcially at the same place we were during the last week of the race for the presumptive leader of the Democratic party. At that point Obama was appearing to run out of gas and was limping to cross the finish line. At the same time Hillary was closing fast on his heels. I view McCain as a poor man's Hillary who is capitalizing on Obama losing steam. This is why Obama's choice of VP in this odd election year is potentially the most important judgment he will make. The outcome could literally result in the election being won or lost.
So who will he pick or perhaps it would be better to say should pick? My answer is that the pick is a no brainer - it will be or shoujld be Hillary. Here is my analysis:
- The choice of Hillary would likely be experienced by practically all voters as electric. Few expect it at this point. So this out of the box choice would make an important statement about Obama's daring, imagination, political savvy, pragmatism, conciliatory capacity.
- Hillary would likely galvanize multitudes of women, rural voters who feel hopeless and helpless, and people who admire her practical can do and do do legislative proven abilities.
- She as years of proven experience and would have little difficulty being ready, willing, and able to assume the role of President if something untowards were to happen to Obama.
- She is a tough fighter even to the point of being ruthless. Thus she becomes the perfect compliment to Obama the visionary.
- Hillary has the best of Cheney and overrides the worst.
- Finally there is the force of her husband who is unparalleled in stirring the passions of huge groups of voters.
Of course there are formidable negatives as there are with any choice. But it seems to me the psotives way override whatever negatives there are. As to Bill - assign him a roving ambassador job in Africa.
Ok - so could I be wrong? Of course. But please don't sue me.
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Comments: 50
But there are also better choices.
No...... It will make him look weak and powerless, adding to the current perception put forth by McCain not detracting from it.
Whatever poll your using didn't take into consideration McCain talked about re-instating the draft at a town hall meeting either yesterday or the day before.
Thank goodness, maybe now some people will finally wake up to what's going on in republican playland.
Someone's paying attention. I don't think it matters who's selected though.
Hillary does have her negatives, but I run across both men and women on a regular basis who would definately vote for that ticket.
No. First, I just think there are a lot of lurkers. Second, your article is well written and your arguments are sound. There are fewer holes to plug and its harder to offer cogent opposition. Third, there just may be more people that agree than disagree with your position.
The Bill-Hill connection may be too much for even Obama's charm---but he may just be tempted!
In this context Obama has offered three criteria in his selection of the VP. These are: Presidential candidate Barack Obama says his pick for a running mate — he's made a decision but isn't giving out a name just yet — had to meet three standards to join the Democratic ticket: Prepared to be president, able to help him govern and willing to challenge his thinking.
These four facts reinforce my prediction that his choice for VP will be Hillary.
She has demonstrated her capacity to be President. She has demonstrated a great capacity for managing. And she most assuredly has an independent mind who would welcome challenging him.
Indeed - if this comes to pass - irrespective of one's politics this team really does make sense to me. You must admit it would be a refreshing change to have them versus the ineffective team of Bush and Cheney.
gibbs williams, Aug 22,
No she hasn't! Name one thing that she has ever been in charge of?
A year ago the pundits had all but crowned her the nominee , largely on the basis of her seemingly insurmountable headstart in fundraising. She tried strong arming some of her big doners for even looking at Obama. She and her campaign team made strategic and tactical errors starting in Iowa and she lost.
HC is still mired in about $20 million of campaign debt, $13 million of it her own money. If those 18 million ardent supporters she is so fond of were equally fond of her, they would each send her a buck, which would nearly retire her debt.
BUT, in honor of her "historic", if mismanaged campaign, I sent her $5.00. I would gladly send her $10 more if she would just shut up and go home.
Lastly, if anyone still thinks she can torpedo this election and come back for a second bite of the apple in 2012, take a look at the numbers. $250,000,000 spent in a mis-managed losing cause. A measly $20,000,000 in debt left to clear and in 2 months she has hardly put a dent in it.
Does anybody really think she can raise enough money for another go?
While I agree that an Obama/Clinton ticket would make hard core Clintonites happy, I doubt it would make as much difference in a general election. And I'd also like to point out that the Republicans have been foaming at the mouth for an opportunity to run against her. I think she would deffinately change the dynamics of the election, I'm just not so sure it would be a positive change.
"She has demonstrated her capacity to be President."
- She is still very new to public office. While she has had unique exposure being in the White House, claiming that as practical experience was always dubious on her part.
"She has demonstrated a great capacity for managing."
- Most analysis of what went wrong in her Primary campaign points to a lack of leadership and decision making on her part. She had two warring factions in her campaign that she never resolved. As result, her campaign wandered between messages and lost momentum. This was her nomination to lose! That loss lands squarely on her poor management of her team.
"And she most assuredly has an independent mind who would welcome challenging him."
- All she has demonstrated, from my perspective, has been a willingness to undermine him. Just yesterday, Hillary was still referring to Obama as her 'Opponent'. Bill's comments since the primary ended have not been helpful..."You could argue no one is ever ready to be president..."
Gibbs, I thought the two of them would have been a dream ticket, full of the promise that our nation has come so far with regard to race and gender. However, by the end of the primary season, it was clear the Clinton's slash and burn approach had made this nearly impossible.
It is a shame. If only both candidates could have conducted themselves as historic rival candidates instead of bitter enemies bent on destroying the other...and honestly, I would put the majority of that blame on the Clinton's...your prediction would hold much more water.
www.goclairevp.4t.com
That's Ron Paul's choice.
On to another effort to rally the troops for Obama.... According to fivethirtyeight - an excellent and objective pollling sight - if Obama wins Michigan (and is presently ahead by 7 points) he only needs one more selected state to win the electoral vote. See my new post if you are interested for more details.
The MSM will make it all better ;) They will redefine what 'change' means. Words have no meaning when you're a liberal.
You made a good case. It was a bold call, with all of the campaing rethoic. Now I wonder why the pick was Biden. Was it the fact that he wouldn;t out shine Obama? It surely can be that he will get scrappy so OBama won't, Hillary could fight Biden any day of the week.
I must admit I question wehter either Obama or Biden can stand toe to toe with Putin (Hillary could).
I still remember in the Clarence Thomas hearing when the witness testified about see a pubic hair on a Coke can and Biden could bring himself to ask how she could tell the difference. If he was intimidate by a college instructor what would the head of a beligerent country casue him to do.