As a supply sider conservative, I know why the dollar is now rising against the euro and other currencies, do you?
Forex - Euro on back foot as market digests ECB rate stance
The dollar is rising and there are very good supply side economic reasons for this change. I wonder if anyone can tell us what these reasons are, and why the dollar is in a good position.
Can you?


Comments: 16
The euro headed for a weekly decline against the dollar on speculation a weakening European economic outlook will rule out future interest-rate increases. The Euro traded near a one-week low against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said he has ``no bias'' and that economic growth is ``not flattering,'' following the ECB's decision to raise borrowing costs yesterday. The euro touched a one-week low of $1.5675 and is currently trading at $1.5704 as of 7:30 am, GMT. The euro has fallen 0.5 percent this week.
``Trichet has confirmed that the central bank has shifted back to a more neutral stance,'' BNP Paribas SA strategists led by Hans-Guenter Redeker wrote in a research note dated yesterday. ``We believe that interest rates are now on hold, suggesting that further downward pressure on the euro is now likely to develop.'' The euro may fall to $1.53 on a break below $1.5650, according to BNP.
The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose against the euro on speculation the European Central Bank will refrain from adding to yesterday's interest- rate increase, bolstering demand for higher-yielding currencies. The South Pacific currencies climbed the most in seven weeks as ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said he has ``no bias'' on further moves after raising the region's main refinancing rate to 4.25 percent. The Australian dollar headed for a weekly gain as the difference in yield between two-year Australian and European bonds widened to near the most in a week.
The dollar may advance to 107.70 yen, according to charts traders watch to predict price movements, said Tomoko Fujii, head of economics and strategy for Japan at Bank of America Corp., the second-largest U.S. bank. A so-called candle chart that displays a currency's high, low, open and close for each day, indicated traders became bullish on the dollar. The upside target of 107.70 was on its 200-day moving average, she said. The dollar-yen's short-term technical momentum is bullish, and candle charts on July 2 and yesterday showed a so-called bullish engulfing pattern, a formation that shows the buying pressure exceeded selling pressure, reversing the dollar's bearish-trend, she said. In this formation, the first day's body, which is the area between the open and closing price, is engulfed by the second day's body. USD/JPY currently trading at 106.75 as of 7:57 am, GMT.
http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/EUR/USD/G/30
But not Bush. However, the word intelligent has never been used in the same sentence with Bush ever.
Nah! That can't be it.
First, Trichet raised the interest of the Euro bond a quarter point yesterday. He felt the need to do that because of the inflation that is going on around the world and particularly in Europe and by raising the Euro bond rate even a quarter of a point that will make it more attractive to own. Trichet has only one thing to look out after, and that one thing is inflation, while Bernanke has two things to watch out for inflation and the economy of the US.
Second, the Euro was at a high when this was being done. What would an investor do when something is high? Sell it. Which they did but also for another reason which is that the SEC is changing the investment rules. However, for the current time, like over a long weekend most want to park their money in a safe place, like the US Dollar. And when folks buy things the price almost always goes up in value, as it did in the Dollar yesterday.
Now that other thing that is happening, the changing of the rules by the SEC. Those changes were published for comment on June 25, five or so days ago. Those SEC proposed rule changes should be understood by now, and even tho there is a posted comment ending date sometime in September this year, they are now a lot more known by the lawyers in the Broker/Dealer Houses and the Investment Banks, the Banks and the Insurance Companies.
Also of note, over time because Trichet raised the rate of the Euro, the EURO will be more valuable, thus reducing or hopefully at least stalling the inflation rate in Europe.
But in the Euro either long or Short term anyone that held almost any position in the Euro needed to sell it yesterday or they would lose money when the price of the Euro normally will rise in another few days or so.
no one else did...
Sell the rip (Euro)
Buy the dips (Dollar)