Plug-In Hybrid Leads Toyota's Drive Beyond Oil

Neat!
I've got a Toyota Prius. If I switch to something that plugs in, I'd likely go with Toyota; this car has been wonderful since I've gotten it.

Yes, and gas hitting $5/gal by years end will also heat up this race. There are also companies, such as Hybrid Technologies, that are converting gas cars to electric - claiming this is competitive over the life of the car, due to gas and maintenance savings.

Japanese Automaker, U.S. Firm Team Up To Convert Cars to Electric Power

Watch the video, linked at the end of the article.

Passing through with triple points for you!

Always wanted a Prius but we are tickled with our Aveo. Hearing that SUVs are soon to be considered dinosaurs. Yay!

thanks for sharing good article

Thanks James! I am so relieved some good is coming from these high prices, in spite of the auto industry's recent aligator tears that they just don't know how to meet the recently proposed CAFE standards...

Plug-in hybrids will help. I wish they weren't so expensive. Granted with the cost of gas climbing the up-front expense will probably be worth it, but the upfront costs will probably put them out of my reach for a while.

Good topic, James.
Great link, Steve, thanks for sharing.

I've been waiting for the date -- with the Prius out for several years now, I suspected it would be soon.

Thanks for the information! I wish I could afford a Prius, they would serve my purposes in a really great way. Like all the new technology, it seems dependent on one's purchasing a new vehicle which many of us simply cannot afford to do.

Having spent my career in the automotive field I have little faith in the viability of converting any but the smallest of vehicles over to electricity. The mass of the larger cars makes them poor candidates. Also, on a used vehicle, one could buy a lot of gas, even at $5.00 a gallon, for the cost of the conversion and whether it would pay in the life of the vehicle is questionable. Does anyone know if there is any hybred conversions being done as opposed to straight electric?

I hope to see them make a small, electric, short range vehicle that could go a couple of hundred miles on a charge and recharge on 110 volt service overnight. I should think they could do this in production for $10,000 each for a basic car and it would serve most of us for most of our driving.

interesting stuff james. I own 5k of Toyota stock, bought three years ago when people were realizing that the Prius is for real. I wish them well for that reason, obviously, but also because the human race needs more weapons to deal with energy in transportation, in the face of the menace of climate change.

James: "I have little faith in the viability of converting any but the smallest of vehicles over to electricity. The mass of the larger cars makes them poor candidates."

Of course, lightweighting would make it possible to have a comfortable vehicle, which is not compromised re: size or performance.

James: "...on a used vehicle, one could buy a lot of gas, even at $5.00 a gallon, for the cost of the conversion and whether it would pay in the life of the vehicle is questionable."

This is the logic that one often hears on the pundit circuit re: why a hybrid is not a wise choice. But I would put the issue in a wider context. 1. This logic is based on self-interest, and self-interest alone. It ignores the fact that not choosing the hybrid keeps demand relatively high, contributing to a higher (subsidized) price for a gallone of gas. That affects not just you, but everyone else too. Of course, if "everyone is doing it", you have the illusion of doing little harm. 2. The increased demand doesn't just help drive up the price of a gallon of gas. It requires us to "protect our vital national interests in the mideast," so that you can continue to buy that gallon of gas, even at the subsidized price of $4/gallon. So I can argue against exclusive self-interest, and in favor of a more patriotic attitude. But I guess we all expect that only the "voluntary military" should sacrifice for the good of the country.

James: "Does anyone know if there is any hybred conversions being done as opposed to straight electric?"

How can I Give my Prius a Plug?

James: "I hope to see them make a small, electric, short range vehicle that could go a couple of hundred miles on a charge and recharge on 110 volt service overnight."

See my link in an above comment - "Japanese Automaker, U.S. Firm Team Up To Convert Cars to Electric Power"

Chris: "I own 5k of Toyota stock...."

Good choice. Toyota will begin leasing its hydrogen fuel cell car in Japan this year.

Honda is leasing their version of the hydrogen fuel cell in California, where there are hydrogen stations.

The GM Volt is supposed to be in dealerships by 2010, the same year that Toyota thinks it will have plug-in hybrids on the market.

These are good competitions to have, and they will continue to be "fueled" by $4-$5/gal gas (subsidized) prices.

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Thanks to everyone for the feedback. As always, there are lots of well-informed comments and thoughtful questions.

Steve, thanks for providing such great additional feedback and links. As you mentioned, the questions asked by James are not uncommon, and it is great to see such excellent answers.

James: I hope you feel encouraged by Steve's responses.

Chris: I hope you make a mint off that stock!

Dale: The prices will come down with some competition, at least as soon as production has ramped up. In the meantime, Smartcars are getting 4-45 mpg for about $12,000. So, while not my ideal choice, there are some options that conserve pretty well compared to the norm and aren't too costly. Plug-in hybrids will be a lot better for the environment, with a much higher effective gas mileage (or lower carbon footprint) than the gas-powered cars. However, the 60 mpg VW JettaBlue TDI has a base price of $22,000. Again, you have to be in the market for a new car and able to afford one... (I have been buying used cars for some time, and can't afford a new car now). We are making progress, but it is never fast enough.

Tory- Cool to find you have a hybrid.

Sam, Debra, Ed, Jennifer and Rhonda- thanks for your thoughtful comments!

Best wishes to all.

Terrific article. It is a shame that once again the Japanese are leading the way.

Thanks Kay and Ed.

Kay, in my opinion, our government, our oil companies and Detroit have done all they could to hamper development of electric, plug-in hybrid and hybrid cars (in spite of the Chevy Volt finally being almost ready to make an appearance). I've written about this elsewhere, as have Sam Carana and Steve B. There are a number of plug-in kits and electric cars available in the US now, but they are made by small sized companies that just don't have much production capacity, so costs can be high ($40,000). That seems about to change!

Much of the battery technology used in electric cars, plug-in hybrids and hybrids was developed in the US, it just wasn't commercialized for cars in a timely manner by major US companies. That would have been bad for Exxon, and thus bad for America, the way the current administration thinks (and many past administrations, too).

Sam,

Perhaps you are wealthy but many of us must look at the immediate self interest. I don't have a few thousand to donate to any cause, regardless how much I believe in it. However, the actual usage of gasoline is not what is driving up the prices. Go read Dave McGill's latest article on the subject as he has all the statistics concerning the production of fuel and the pricing. It is the speculation on the futures market for the most part.

I appreciate you posting the links, I've not gone to them yet but will as soon as I get through here.

Sam,

I've been to the links you posted now. What I was asking about was a conversion of say, a Ford Escort to be a hybrid. Is anyone doing those?

James: from my reading of the article Japanese Automaker, US Firm team up... they can concert any gas car to electric. That what I see implied in the following quote, "In the company's plant in Morrisville, North Carolina, many familiar car models are being transformed into electric vehicles: The Toyota Yaris, Chrysler PT Cruiser and the SmartCar." These cars are all made by different manufacturers and have nothing significant in common. The article also describes an electric Jeep. Maybe I'm confused bur I think this is what you are looking for. I'd at least contact the company. It doesn't look like the cost is terribly low, but they talk about recovery of fuel costs over a 10-year period, so if you have a car that will last 10-15 years, it will be a money-saving venture. Please let me know if you read this differently.

Very interesting! I'd love to own a hybrid one day. But I'm not really a fan of Toyota or Chevy.

James C: "..perhaps you are wealthy but many of us must look at the immediate self interest. I don't have a few thousand to donate to any cause, regardless how much I believe in it. However, the actual usage of gasoline is not what is driving up the prices."

Driving electric cars can cost under $1 a day in electricity, while they can generate over $3 a day in credits, as I explained under my article on V2G or even more when powered by solar panels. As you know, you can get solar panels installed without upfront cost.

In my article Cheap electric cars, I described the Tara, a four-seater that needs 8 hours of charging to travel 80 kms and is set to hit the Indian roads next month for a price of Rs 99,000 which was $2,470 at the time I wrote the article. While this car may not pass US standards, it's clear that cost doesn't have to be an issue. Electric cars contain less parts, which reduces both manufacture and maintenance cost.

The main obstacle now is politics, but with a new president and congress next year, I expect a lot of political support (including financial support) for both zero emission cars and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Economies of scale will then produce electric motors, batteries and other necessary parts at prices that will make it financially attractive to convert many if not most existing gas cars.

Toyota and other companies are working on electric cars. Hope that more of these are made available to U.S.

Sam,

I'm with you totally on the desirability of economical electric vehicles! I'm glad the Tara is as far as it is. By the time it is released in this country I'm sure that the price will have to be $10,000 higher to cover the cost of safety measures and the compliance proofs that are involved with any vehicle. If the compliance proofs can be put on a long term basis, they might get by for $5,000 and that would make the vehicle very attractive.

The big key to anything in the electric car market is the battery technology. Your previous posts have indicated great strides are being made in this field. Once the batter problems are attenuated, the vehicles will not only be cheaper with longer ranges, but they will become attractive on the used vehicle market.

People are afraid to purchase these used as they may spend everything they can afford on a used hybrid, only to have the batter fail and have to come up with a twenty five hundred dollar expense they had not expected.

I share your hope that a new administration will take a much more progressive attitude toward alternative energy sources and applications. They couldn't be much more resistant than the current administration!

Thanks for the comments and feedback, Ashley and James.

James, I think you'll really find that the batteries are here now. The boutique electric car companies, which offer cars and pickups in the $40,000 - $95,000 range in the US today, are listing 25 year lifetimes for the batteries, if I remember right. See Phoenix electric cars, etc. Sam and I and Steve B have discussed these real cars and trucks, all electric and available now, in a number of articles and discussions here, and others probably have, too. The main problem is the low production numbers and consequent high price from fairly small manufacturers (in the US), but there is no evidence that the batteries aren't good enough, today, from what I conclude after reading about these cars over the past year.

See also This story about the new ford plug-in hybrid prototype that just came out. Unfortunately, the stupid thing runs on E85, 85% ethanol. Just what we don't need to be burning (seen the price of corn lately... though to their credit, mention is made of cellulosic ethanol, which is far less stupid, but not unquestionably brilliant). Maybe the new Ford runs on regular gas too, i.e. E0, I'm not sure, but I suppose that is what they mean by flexfuel (definitions in the mirror may be closer than they appear). But, the batteries work fine (Lithium ion batteries in this case, like the all-electric and super expensive Tesla and the new plug-in hybrid Prius).

Here is a relevant quote from the Ford press release: "In addition to taking delivery of the Escape Flex-Fuel PHEV, DOE announced that $30 million will be made available over the next three years to fund PHEV demonstration and development projects with industry cooperation. The goal is to develop PHEVs that can be mass produced, compete effectively in the marketplace, and substantially reduce petroleum consumption."

Thanks again for the feedback!

I have been considering an electric car. The big minus is the high cost to purchase the car.

As some posters have already implied, the batteries need great improvement to make fully electric cars a viable alternative. The lithium-ion battery that they're using is a highly explosive battery too. How is this battery going to be safe in an accident?

Right now, any fully electric cars are not very fast and do not hold a charge for very long. One other concern is the cost of charging it. I've heard it said that it won't be more expensive than running your electric clothes dryer, but it didn't say for how long either. Running an electric dryer can be the most expensive cost on your electric bill minus AC, if you are heating from another source.

Once again, as the electricity supply is more utitlized for car charging, the prices for that electricity can only also rise. Do you really think there is going to be much relative difference in the cost of electricity and the cost of fuel over the long haul?

Thanks for another great article, James.

One more thing...here we are in the summer with electric companies asking us to conserve our use of electricity as much as possible to counteract all the AC usage to prevent brown outs and black outs. If the electric car option should become popular, how will this affect electricity conservation and what will we then be expected to sacrifice?

James,

I've followed some links that Sam provided me and read what was said about batteries. I still haven't seen what I feel is really needed. They are good enough to get by at the present time but I'm still wondering about the used car market being viable with them. What we need is a battery that will sell for under $1,000 for that purpose. Lots of people could fund the under $1,000 battery if necessary but choke on prices over that.

I'm posting a url for a video from one of the news services concerning a car being released in Japan and which runs on nothing but water. Give it lots of time to load. Sounds like the ideal fuel if they can do it. Tell me what you think. The car shown is minuscule but if they can build tiny they should be able to segue to a more useful size for American applications.

http://www.vloggingtheapocalypse.com/viewVideo.php?video_id=615&title=WA

Sue: thanks for your comments, supportive remarks and questions. I'll offer what I hope are some substantial answers for you. I'm really not in the least worried about the safety of car battery technology for use in electric cars. I don't mean that safety is unimportant, and we all know about laptop batteries having safety problems (due to design and/or manufacturing faults). However, we often fail to factor a number of key things into our thinking, because we have grandfathered this stuff into our lives and maintain an illusion that some things are safe.

What do I mean? Well, I don't think it is possible to design a battery that is anywhere close to being as dangerous as a gas tank with gas in it. These tanks are, literally, bombs waiting to explode. In some car accidents, they do explode, or catch on fire, and these are not rare events. So we need to keep in mind that we are willingly riding around on bombs and have been doing so blithely for a long time (this not an exaggeration at all, so please don't test this at home!). And what about our current car batteries? You've heard of battery acid, of course. Well, it is very dangerous and harmful, and people do get injured by it, though not as much as in the past because of modern, sealed battery designs. But, it is there, under the hood. The department of transportation (DOT) would require special labels, containers and shipping if you wanted to send a container of battery acid by truck to another location, but the truck used for transportation would have the same acid in its battery, being driven around connected to a gasoline bomb (the old gas tank again). This is one of the strange paradoxes that lead to the illusion of safety in our current world, making us very skeptical of changes that seem dangerous. The dangers that I'm aware of with electric cars are minimal compared to those of the gas tank itself- I wouldn't call them dangers, I'd call them significant safety improvements. If anyone can provide a better answer or thinks I'm wrong, I'd be happy to hear about it (really!).

As for conserving electricity, Sam Carana has written eloquently on this topic, showing that we can even run our houses off of car batteries or sell excess power from plug-in hybrids or electric cars back to the grid. This becomes even greener if we have our own solar or wind power systems (at home or at work). The fact remains that we'll use much less overall energy with electric cars than we will with gas-powered cars, and we'll generate much less pollution. The efficiency of the electric systems is much higher than that of the gasoline systems. As many buildings continue to install their own solar power or other renewable power systems, the drain on the grid will be diminished. Problems with the power grid in the summer are also somewhat local: California has them, most other places don't (NY occasionally, perhaps). California is increasing its installation of renewable power, and, with the help of electricity storage in large batteries, like the batteries in all the electric cars that will be on the road, the relationship between power generation and power usage can be managed better than it is today (coal plants and nuclear plants work at certain capacities and can't respond nimbly to changes in demand). Take a look at Sam's articles. I'll supply specific links shortly. I'm skimming over a lot of detail here- it is getting late. Best wishes!

James. I think I have written a partial answer for you and it is sitting on another computer, apparently not submitted yet. Tomorrow, I hope, I'll hit :submit" However, you are describing fuel cell technology, I presume. It doesn't work well enough yet to be practical, as far as I can recall. I'll read the article and have more to say later.

Thanks to all for the continued great discussion.

Thanks James- here is that other reply from my other computer that I thought I had already sent:

The technology is here, but not at that price. I just read a press release for a company that will convert any gas-powered vehicle into a plug-in hybrid vehicle for $8,700 (but not quite yet). Note that this company is claiming a 10-year battery life ("Based on 300 complete battery discharges per year, the useful life of the batteries would be about 10 years or 3,000 cycles or 120,000 electric miles.") Go to the links (above and below) for the charts mentioned in the quote below.

From the press release and company fact sheet:

"AFS Trinity Power has developed patent-pending technology that makes it possible for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to achieve 150 MPG, go 40 miles in all-electric mode, and use gasoline for additional unlimited miles in hybrid mode."

"How much will it cost to plug in the car if I only drive in the electric mode? About $1/day or $7.56/week. You can take a closer look at the numbers on our XH-150™ Performance Comparison chart available here.

What's the cost difference between electricity and gasoline? We estimate weekly gas cost, based on driving 340 miles per week, of $7.93 and weekly electricity cost of $7.56, for a total weekly fuel cost of $15.49. You can take a closer look at the numbers on our XH-150™ Performance Comparison chart available here.

Does it depend where I live and my other electric usage? Yes. Electricity prices and your other electric usage will determine your cost.

If I travel as you said, 40 miles per day during the week and 100 miles on the weekend, what is my mileage cost compared to an all gas car? Total fuel cost would be $15.49/week compared to roughly $50/week for comparable hybrid SUVs. You can take a closer look at the numbers on our XH-150™ Performance Comparison chart available here.

How much will a car like this cost? We estimate the XH™ drive train will add an additional $8,700 to the retail price of the vehicle without the drive train. In the case of the Saturn Vue, which is roughly $22,000, the XH™ version would cost about $31,000.

Will I have to replace the batteries? Based on 300 complete battery discharges per year, the useful life of the batteries would be about 10 years or 3,000 cycles or 120,000 electric miles. You would more likely elect to get a new car than replace the batteries."

James, thanks so much for your thoughtful explanations on the answers to my questions. Whether they suffice as definitive answers is not as important as that they give me a new perspective from which to further investigate the issues. I appreciate that so much, especially from someone whose opinions I respect.

James,

Did you read the link about the car that runs on water? If so, what are your thoughts?

James,

Appreciate the detailed answer and link!

Talking about safety of electric cars, I see them as very safe in general. They will be subject to the same problems as gasoline vehicles, crashes, running off the road, etc. They will be mostly small which makes them a little more dangerous in the actual crash but their maneuverability may actually prevent their being in the accident.

Talking about the gas tank and the battery, from a career in automotive mechanics, I'd personally rate them about the same, there are going to be very few incidents from either one. Batteries can and do explode but not with the force of a nearly empty gas tank. Gasoline must have the correct mixture of fuel and oxygen or it simply won't explode. A full tank cannot explode - not enough oxygen or fumes. The liquid gas can't explode and must be vaporized first. You can weld on a full gas tank if you can inert the air space in the tank, I've seen it done. I've personally soldered on one with a red hot iron. But in a crash, occasionally the tank is ruptured and fuel escapes and vaporizes and when it burns it is an explosion.

I cannot speak to the lithium ion batteries but the lead acid batteries are highly prone to explosion. While charging they give off hydrogen gas and any ignition source will ignite it violently. A mechanic friend of mine was grinding on something and producing great sparks when he forgot he had a battery charging there, big bang! But the total explosion is rarely for sufficient force to cause great injury. So, all in all, I'd rate the gas tank and the battery about the same and both are quite safe.

Thanks James. I appreciate having your experienced viewpoint on the safety of batteries and gas tanks.

I didn't mean for us to be frightened of our cars all of a sudden, just to point out the possible risks we live with comfortably vs. risks that people or regulators may be unwilling to take with new ideas and new products: what is assumed safe or deemed unsafe don't always make sense, at least to me.

However, I don't have any firsthand experience working on gas tanks or batteries the way you have, I was speaking more from the perspective of working with the component parts of these things in a chemistry lab, and remembering an old Drivers Ed demo (of a drop of gas exploding in a steel cylinder) that was done by a police officer (probably in 1973 or 4). There was a lot of air and vapor very little liquid in that case. It was nice to hear some additional and practical sides of the story.

The demonstration you saw was very accurate I'm sure. The story is that one gallon of gasoline has the explosive power of thirty two sticks of dynamite and I don't question it. But you've got to vaporize that gallon and get a mix with air between its lower explosive level (LEL) and upper explosive level (UEL). When that does occur, the power is tremendous. Exploding droplets of gasoline is what makes our cars run, etc. If they explode too fast you get pre-ignition (ping), and too slow robs power. Gasoline does have a fairly broad LEL to UEL range, much more than natural gas.

The lot of air and little fuel is what make for the correct level, that is why an empty fuel tank is more dangerous than a full one. I once steam cleaned a tank to remove all fuel and vapors and when I struck a torch to the tank there was still an explosion! Expanded the tank and scared the heck out of me but no harm done, just a good lesson.

It does sound like from reading these additional posts that the batteries are safer than some people have been telling me about them.