Tuesday May 20 features another pimary contest between Clinton and Obama. The State of Oregon's contest features a prize of 65 delegates, and Kentucky features a total of 60. Obama expects to win in Oregon, and Clinton is definitely going to win in Kentucky. Depending on which poll you look at, Obama in Oregon can expect to gain 50 to 55% of the total. In Kentucky, it looks like Clinton will harvest from 55 to 65% of the vote, an even more convincing win.
As we know, the Democratic Party primaries differ from the Republican by virtue of being proportional to the vote totals, rather than winner-take-all. As a result of that reality, a split decision in Kentucky/Oregon does not figure to give either candidate a knockout punch. It is harder on Clinton simply because Obama currently holds a delegate lead of almost 200. Yes, Obama's delegate total is currently 1904, and Clinton can lay claim to 1717. So let's guess that each of them picks up around 60 delegates on Tuesday. Obviously that gets Obama to 1964, which is only 60 short of the 2026 number needed for the nomination. Clinton on the other hand, ends up with 1777, which is around 250 short of victory.
It is possible then that Obama could fail to close the deal once again on Tuesday. But he will certainly be in the driver's seat, and there will be considerable pressure put upon the remaining uncommitted superdelegates to face the facts and award him their votes in order to elimate the PR black eye of a public tussle at the approaching convention. Of course, that used to be the whole point of actually having a political convention, but times change and now we think it has to be resolved before then so everybody can be friendly and positive when the cameras start running.
If we make the assumption that Obama soon becomes the nominee, then we move on to the next phase of election 2008. Several elements of this future phase are already taking shape. Republican strategists clearly have concluded that one potent weapon against Obama is his sympathy for terrorists, his softness on military matters, and his disloyalty to our nation. By the way, I am typing that sentence in the Republican voice- I do not personally think any of those things about Obama. Bush's unusual step of raising this issue in front of the Israeli Knesset (on behalf of his heir apparent)telegraphs this punch, but it was obvious from the 2004 campaign that the fear card remains the trump in the Republican hand.
It is equally obvious that money will remain an issue in the campaign. Obama's powerful weapon of internet fundraising in small individual amounts so far has dwarfed McCain's ability to obtain large hunks of money from a much smaller pool of wealthy donors. If this trend should continue, McCain will face a challenge to getting his message out on television.
What else can we expect? Well, we can expect the unexpected. Each side will make efforts to ambush the other, each side will spin news events and campaign revelations. McCain will continue to wrestle with the issue of having campaign higher-ups who have been lobbyists, and who will jump back through the revolving door into even bigger money, should McCain win. There may be efforts to pander, or to avoid pandering, similar to that gas tax thing. Obama will continue to be accused of making inspirational speeches that are short on detail. My spin on that is that we probably cannot handle the truth and it may be therefore best for Obama to keep it to himself. Do I feel that way about McCain? Good question. McCain's position on climate change, which I consider truthful, seems to have cost him some support among Republicans, due to the existence of a large denial bloc in that political party on that topic.
Anyway, enjoy the primary on Tuesday, since there may not be much more drama within the Dems. We can however, look forward to plenty of drama in the general election. You might even get tired of it before November.
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Comments: 40
It was a race of the ages. Two formidable candidates. Hope to have such a race once again.
I wonder if Rove will be working the phones, even if he is not officially working for McCain?
Nervous? They're apoplectic. I heard one Republican politico quoted as feeling like the party had flown itself into a mountain in the dark. As the saying goes, "You can't fool all of the people all of the time....." and the people are, finally, coming around. They now understand how much damage the Neo-cons, evilgelicals and their ilk have inflicted on the country, and yes, they are ready for real, revolutionary CHANGE. (Are YOU better off than you were four, or eight, years ago? I think we all know the answer to that question.)
While McCain is no Bush--he is, at least, semi-rational, and a relative Sir Galahad where personal integrity is concerned--he is still dedicated to continuing our futile involvement in Bush/Cheney's illigitimate Iraq debacle. (Yes, our young men and women are STILL bleeding, being maimed, and losing their lives there.) And he remains pledged to preserving the Bush tax cuts for those who least need it, the fat-cat privileged class.
The economy is foundering, food and fuel prices are soaring, consumer confidence is at its lowest level in 28 years--and McCain admits that economics is not exactly his forte. He'll give you a summer gas-tax holiday band-aid to stop the hemorrhaging from your wallet. Thanks a lot Johnny Mac.
Obama drew a crowd of more than 70,000 to a rally in Portland, OR yesterday. That is just the most visible indication of the excitement and enthusiasm he has generated. MCain is collecting $30,000 a plate at his fundraising events, but even at that rate he's going to find himself swamped by the tsunami of contributions Obama is collecting.
The Republican party's last, desperate gambit will be resorting to their usual dirty-tricks and fearmongering. But because you truly can't fool all of the people all of the time, they are destined to fail--and it's going to be a long, long time before the American people will be willing to trust them again.
http://www.hahameter.com/HaHa/Content/List.aspx?fmt=4
"Republican strategists clearly have concluded that one potent weapon against Obama is his sympathy for terrorists, his softness on military matters, and his disloyalty to our nation. "
Until I read the one by you that immediately followed:
"By the way, I am typing that sentence in the Republican voice- I do not personally think any of those things about Obama."
Thank goodness, Chris!
I suppose pointing out the absurdity of this kind of attack on Obama early in the campaign has some validity, but it sickens me to see this smear campaign rear up on its hind legs. We know what the American people don't want is more Karl Rove-style slime. What we do want is transparency, no more, no less. Let's talk about the issues, the solutions, the sacrifice needed and how that's all gonna happen.
Yes, Elizabeth, and McCain's camp doesn't play dirty. Oh really? Mrs McCain may have eat her words before this is over or John will have to be disassociating himself from FoxNews.
By the way, I found out today that I have something in common with McCain. Really, we are both Melanoma survivors who had our surface skin tumors removed and biopsied around the year 2000. We are both probably in the clear- but with Melanoma unfortunately you can't be sure until you die of something else.
I'm not making this up, it's in the latest issue of Time magazine.
Congrats on the feature!
There is nothing wrong with being a Senator. Of course all 3 of them have that already!
Sen. Hillary is close but no brass ring this time.
Six more superdelegates declared for Obama yesterday, giving him a total of 1915 pledged delegates. By tomorrow night, additional superdelegate pledges plus delegates from Kentucky and Oregon could put him within 30 or so of victory.
If only Al Gore had not given in to that mentality of "enough already" - if Al Gore had only fought tooth and nail for what he really believed was best for the American people we may not be in this s@#t hole of a mess we are in today.
So I say, keep fighting Hillary and Obama till the fat lady sings, till all the votes are counted and the winner will be a stronger, not a weaker candidate in the end.
The Republicans are going to up the anty in fear mongering, and inuendo, because they truly have nothing else to go on.
Uncommitted superdelegates will continue to jump on Obama's bandwagon--or defect from Hillary's camp. The time has come for Hillary to acknowledge reality and concede. There is a point at which noble, determined perserverence turns into a pathetic and unbecoming display of whiny, stubborn desperation. This was something Al Gore realized when he finally gave up the fight over the 2000 election. The fat lady is standing in the spotlight.
Check the 'Politics' section, congrats!