'Idol' singers who sing first may not last

ORDERED ODDS Leadoff singers on American Idol are eliminated at a higher rate than if they were random: Order: 1 Expected exits: 12.9 Actual eliminations: 20 Order: 2 Expected exits: 12.9 Actual eliminations: 12 Order: 3 Expected exits: 9.9 Actual eliminations: 9 Order: 4 Expected exits: 7.9 Actual eliminations: 8 Order: 5 Expected exits: 6.4 Actual eliminations: 6 Order: 6 Expected exits: 5.4 Actual eliminations: 5 Order: 7 Expected exits: 4.3 Actual eliminations: 1 Order: 8 Expected exits: 3.3 Actual eliminations: 4 Order: 9 Expected exits: 2.4 Actual eliminations: 3 Order: 10 Expected exits: 1.8 Actual eliminations: 1 Order: 11 Expected exits: 1.0 Actual eliminations: 0 Order: 12 Expected exits: 0.5 Actual eliminations: 0 Source: WhatNotToSing.com analysis, based on 69 finals episodes, weighted by number of contestants in each episode

The leadoff performer on an Idol finals night stands a disproportionately greater chance of being eliminated than those who follow, according to an analysis of Idol's seven seasons.

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In 69 finals episodes, 20 singers in the No. 1 spot have been voted off, seven more than would be expected based on statistical probability, says Nick Straguzzi, co-founder of WhatNotToSing.com, which collects and analyzes Idol data. In four out of six weeks this season, the first finalist has been in the bottom three, twice being eliminated. "The No. 1 slot is by far the most dangerous for finalists," Straguzzi says.

Eliminations at the other slots came closer to what could be expected at random, except for lucky 7, a spot from which only one has been bounced. And no one in the 11th or 12th spot in a finals week has been eliminated; only one (Kristy Lee Cook) has been in the bottom three.

Producers decide the singing order except for the finale, which is a singer's choice after a coin flip. (Only one finale leadoff singer, Ruben Studdard, has won Idol.) They vary the order each week to be fair, but also try to arrange singers and their songs to make the most entertaining show, executive producer Ken Warwick says.

"It's worked out with two things in mind: where the kid (performed) last week, and if it's a slow, 'dirgey' ballad, I try not to open with that," he says.

Speculation about the danger of the leadoff spot, including fan chatter about a first-performer jinx, grew after the surprise elimination of Michael Johns, 29, who led off two weeks ago. Possible reasons (especially in weeks singers perform once):

• Fewer viewers at the start. Idol's ratings grow throughout each show, with more viewers - and potential voters - watching singers at the end than at the beginning. On April 8, Idol went from 22.8 million viewers in the first half-hour to 26.4 million in the second, a 16% increase.
• Judging standards. Viewers compare each singer to the one who preceded him, which helps if you follow a bad performance, says Olivia Fox Cabane of Spitfire Consulting. "The problem when you are first is people are comparing you to whatever abstract standards they were hearing before you, i.e., professional singers or whoever they heard on the radio that day," she says.

•The singing-voting gap. Many Idol watchers believe performances later in the show have a stronger hold on viewers than those earlier in the show.

Warwick acknowledges such factors create "a little bit" of a disadvantage. The order "is done as fairly as it could possibly be, but someone has to go first."

Enlarge Fox Shocking exit: Michael Johns was the first to sing on the performance night preceding his elimination.