Let me try to answer that.
You remember the seventies? Going from Vinyl, to tape, to CD, to DVD. The Apple computer, Visi-Calc, Lotus 1-2-3, Microsoft programed the Commodore 64 computer, the integrated circuit, Corning Glass (made from rocket nose cones) and Fiber optics, don't ya? From that stuff of the seventies came what we see today in the Tech world, in the LCD, Plasma, Cell-phone, computer world, the DVD and such, that we all know and love today.
Well now in the financial world there are thousands of lay-offs in the big Investment Banks, because of financial missteps, and the need to keep profitable.
At the same time the financial world over the last several years has been packaging financial instruments, such as REIT's, ETF's and such which removes the thing from the investor. An Investor now doesn't need to buy the real estate, they can buy a REIT that buys real estate, or they can buy an ETF that buys the commodity therefore the investor doesn't need to buy the commodity and sell the commodity, as they can buy the ETF which does all that.
Then there are the people like Jimmy Rogers who up and moved his family to Singapore because the dollar isn't worth very much at all now and things he feels, will be better for him and his family in Singapore, living with a different currency than the dollar.
Now then the future, you wanted to know, well from the thousands that are currently being laid-off come the new Boutique Investment shops. These new Boutique Investment shops are being set up by the thousands by those folk that were laid off from the 'Big Old Investment Shops' like the folks from Bear Stearns. These folks have no rules, they aren't afraid to invest in currencies and in countries that you and I wouldn't touch with a ten foot pole. However, these folk took their phone numbers and clients and contacts with them and are doing in these thousands of New Boutique Investment shops what you and I would never do and that is to invest in projects in countries and currencies around the world.
From these thousands of New Boutique Investment shops will come the new investment companies of the world with names that will be as common thirty years from now as Citi and Goldman are today
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Comments: 7
Reits are not new. They have been around since at least the '70s. I have held them on and off since the 80s.
ETFs? I thank the financial industry for ETFs. I had long ago sworn off the expense bloated underperforming mutual fund industry. ETFs are an excellent vehicle for investors that want diversification without massive management fees.
And why are you against the boutique shops?? Its the american way to strike out on your own when the establishment no longer fits. There is even a term for it; 'creative destruction'. Its not unusual for the average retail investor to not be involved in the early stages.
I see your point about a lack of regulation, but regulation has always lagged in the financial industry.
I personally think that they are great and will bring the innovations in the financial area that will finance the needs of the world in the coming years.
The last several years as I see it easily includes the seventies, as I also have been investing in them off and on since those days.
I said these boutique investment shops have no rules. Meaning that when they invest in currencies other than dollars, and in countries other than the US, those rules, which I think you would call regulations, aren't written yet.
What percentage do you think will rise to that point, and how many will fail?
Yes Julia, from the thousands we will get from two to five if we're lucky.
The .5 - 2% range that will make it in the next 30 year time frame I feel would be somewhere around 50 - 200 financially viable investment firms with 2 to 5 that I feel will make it to a very large integrated investment, broker, dealer, banking firm.