The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) just released its latest report on climate change, called OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030
The report projects that world gross domestic product (GDP) will almost double by 2030. OECD simulations shows that it would cost just over 1% of that growth to implement policies that can cut key air pollutants by about a third, and contain greenhouse gas emissions to about 12%, instead of a theoretical 37% growth under the scenario without new policies. The suggested measures would cost just over 1% of the predicted global GDP in 2030, meaning world wealth would grow on average 0.03% less per year over the next 22 years, the OECD report said.
The comparison is merely academic, though. If nothing is done, global greenhouse gas emissions could rise by over 50% by 2050, while "one billion more people will be living in areas of severe water stress by 2030 than today, and premature deaths caused by ground-level ozone worldwide would quadruple by 2030," the OECD report said.
"It has a positive cost-benefit result. Regardless of the ethical, of the moral, of the social, of the political consequences, simply looking at it from the business and the economic point of view, it is a better idea to start right away focusing on the environment," OECD Secretary General Angel Gurria told reporters, at the presentation of the report in Oslo.
OECD recommends use of policy mixes; to keep the costs of action low, policies should be heavily based on economic and market-based instruments. Examples are the use of green taxes, efficient water pricing, emissions trading, polluter-pay systems, waste charges, and eliminating environmentally harmful subsidies (e.g. for fossil fuels and agriculture). But more stringent regulations and standards (e.g. for transport and building construction), investment in research and development, sectoral and voluntary approaches, and eco-labelling and information are also needed.
Mr. Gurría said that technological developments will also contribute to the solution, but that the generalised application of breakthrough technologies poses important challenges in the area of intellectual property rights which will have to be confronted.
References:
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2030 - OECD
World can 'afford' to solve its environmental woes: OECD - Yahoo!
2008 OECD Environmental Outlook - How much will it cost to address today's key environmental problems? - OECD
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Comments: 22
I have a friend of mine right now that is in the process of getting patents on some revolutionary creations in the solar arena...he has invested everything he has, risked his home on his ideas...would hate to see someone like him end up not being justly rewarded for his efforts, his ideas and his risk.
One often-quoted example is that of oil companies buying up patents relating to car batteries, in an effort to stop the development of electric cars. Read more about this example at this Wikipedia page which quotes the book Plug-in Hybrids: The Cars That Will Recharge America by Sherry Boschert.
I just discussed the patent issue in a comment under my article on light, where I add that, in my view, we need legislation (perhaps as part of anti-trust and cartel legislation) to avoid such practices. Government needs to facilitate rapid development of such technologies, for the sake of reducing emissions, rather than to protect those who seek to hold back such developments.
Please read the POM Education group articles (http://pomeducation.gather.com/) in order to understand how and why money does these things to us. Then read "Invisible Hand". my novel published here on Gather, to see how money should be modified to prevent these problems and correct what's wrong. It isn't bad people, it's a bad money. Change the money and the people will act better.
"Invisible Hand" is also freely available at:
http://www.unc.edu/~mason/hand.html
with no ads.
I am not sufficiently knowledgeable about the OECD to accuse them of counterproductive activity. The World Bank, back in the day, all you had to do was say the word "development", and they would build a road into the middle of a rain forest that would be raped and burned within a couple years.
I guess what I am saying here is that I am grateful for a bit of logical analysis stating that dealing with climate change is more cost effective than pretending that it is not there. But when we undertake specific economic efforts, we have to make sure that hard-won realization does not fly out the window.
Thanks. I do understand that things are learned. However, are all the forests and crops and lawns out there still sucking in CO2 and converting it to O2? That is also what I learned in school. What is the percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere? And at what level does it cause human suffering? Does anyone know? Or is it just that they think that CO2 adds to the carbon component in the atmosphere? I believe these to be reasonable questions as I don't have the answers.
This OECD report looks into the economic aspects of global warming. Of course, you cannot put a price on catastrophic destruction of the environment. It's academic to calculate the cost of averting catastrophic climate collapse like desertification at planetary scale, loss of species that are vital to humanity's survival or a runaway greenhouse effect. It's imperative that we do avoid catastrophic destruction of the environment. It is within this context that we must read the conclusions of the report that we can reduce key air pollutants by about a third at almost insignificant costs if we act soon. Importantly, the longer we wait, the more expensive such action will become.
The report follows earlier studies such as the Stern Review, October 30, 2006. Stern estimated the global cost at an annual $450 billion, or 1% of a Gross World Product (GWP) of about $45 trillion. Note that these cost estimates were calculated on the basis that we started with immediate implementation of proposed measures and would continue to reduce emissions until greenhouse gas concentrations would be at a level that was deemed to be acceptable (550 ppm CO2 equivalent). Costs estimates included decarbonizing 60% the power sector, and the important conclusion was that cost would amount to a lot more the longer action was delayed.
There have been further studies, some actually pointing at a gain in average GDP as a result of action to combat global warming, e.g. see the studies mentioned by the World Resources Institute and this IPCC presentation.
In conclusion, we have no choice but to act against global warming and we must take action sooner rather than later. We now need to decide what measures can reduce emissions most effectively and as soon as possible. In my view, that is a FeeBate policy.
We need a reallocation of government resources, rather than extra expenditure. Right now, the cost of securing oil is horrific (Iraq!). Had we incorporated just a part of that cost in the price of oil, we would have had electric cars on the road everywhere years ago. Had coal-fired power plants been asked to incorporate the price of the harm they caused, renewables would have powered society years ago. Similarly, government spends huge amounts of money to subsidize biofuel, livestock and feed for livestock, while all this causes huge amounts of emissions, uses up massive amounts of water and other precious resources and comes at the expense of forests, food and of the better alternatives that we need instead.
Back in January 2007, on the eve of the State of the Union address, CEOs of 10 major U.S. companies urged President Bush to support mandatory industrial greenhouse gas emission cuts. Back in November 2007, the Bali communique was signed by more than 150 companies around the world, jointly worth nearly $4 trillion in market capitalization, including Shell UK, GE International, Coca-Cola Co., Dupont Co., United Technologies Corp., Rolls Royce, Nestle SA, Unilever, British Airways and Volkswagen AG.
As to trees and lawns, they do indeed absorb CO2 and release O2 for our waiting lungs. The bad thing is that a great deal of forest land around our planet is being converted either to grassland which performs much less carbon removal, or concrete and buildings, which perform zero carbon removal. And when the forest is cut and burned, vast quantities of carbon are actually released, especially in Brazil and Indonesia.
Carbon Dioxide as a 'greenhouse gas' was always and still a theory. It was adopted by the "scientific community" when the scientific community's ozone layer theory was proven wrong. But we are always going to be doomed. The scientific community depends on public funding so doom is the way to go. Just ask religions....
Chris you wouldn't have questioned the scientific community during the Ozone layer crisis so why would I expect you to question them now?
http://environment.newscientist.com/climatemyths
This is an article about the economic cost of acting on global warming, as opposed to sabotaging such action.
Yes I know that the myth of the sun's activity having an effect on temperature can be quite irritating to your cause. Noah built the arc and carbon dioxide traps heat. Styrofoam used to deplete the ozone layer and the Easter bunny used to deliver eggs to children.
I am opposed to America being beholden to crude oil and I am even more sickened by your types who have only increased it. You are opposed to the excessive use to crude oil as am I. But your reasons are based on a faith not a fact. We could end a lot of things but your belief unfortunately prolongs it.
We need solutions that are clean and safe, such as solar and wind energy, which can also produce electricity cheaper than fossil fuel or nuclear plants, while electricity can also power our fleet of cars much cheaper than oil. We could have ended the use of fossil fuel years ago.