HOW TO PREDICT THE OSCARS, part two

Okay, it's getting down to the time when the Oscars will take place. Hopefully you have not placed a bet or entered an offfce pool or even wagered with the S.O., because I've got some predictors. These predictors aren't foolproof, but they can offer you some insight on how to maximize your voting.

BEST PICTURE

The very first decision to be made is Best Picture. The Best Pic winner will accurately predict other category winners. For example, Best Editing has gone with the Best Picture winner 28 years in a row. How do you figure this baby out?  Check these factoids out. 

90% of the time the Best Director at the DGA wins the Oscar

The highest grossing film of the bunch usually wins.

The film with the most nominations wins nearly 85% of the time.

Dramas win 40% of the time, comedies only 16%.

Half the of the winners were the longest film of the bunch.

Here is a big key, if the director is NOT nominated the film will not win Best Picture. Only three times in Oscar history as the opposite occurred.

BEST DIRECTOR

 Look to the Director's Guild awards and the Golden Globes for clues. The Oscar Best Director winner is also the DGA winner 90% of the time.  No one who has won both the DGA award and the Golden Globe Award has ever lost the Oscar. Finally, of the 80 Oscars given to Best Picture, 60 also got Best Director. Although this has been changing of late, so be careful using that one.

BEST ACTOR/ACTRESS

There are a few predictors here. Portraying areal person tends to get an Oscar. Actors playing people with disabilities get Oscars. Older actors with long careers get better consideration and big name actors in supporting roles get preference. If those supporting roles are against type, well, that works too. Look for the best looking young actress to win Best Supporting Actress, this happens around 65% of the time.

BEST SCREENPLAY

The Best Picture usually gets the Best Screenplay award. Recently only four times has this NOT happened. A couple of other predictors are independent films get recognition, and actors who write also get consideration.

FOREIGN FILM 

This is tough, but the film which has grossed the most has done well. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY

This category has changed a lot in the past few years, but go with the highest gross, best recognition and something that it not too threatening to the Hollywood 's body politic.

BEST MAKEUP

Science Fiction or fantasy films dominate. No need to change unless you have seen something mind blowing.

COSTUME DESIGN

This category goes to the lavish production epics and is often considered a consolation prize. Look for the film that didn't do well at the box office, but had gorgeous people in outlandishly gaudy apparel.

Hopefully, this has helped you. I know for myself I won't make my final decision until about 15 minutes before show time. I'll review my own rules and mark my ballot. Then I'll put my tux on, roll out the red carpet, head to the couch with some popcorn and fantasize what I would say if I won an Oscar.

Garen has been sitting in the dark for over 30 years as an film exhibitor, consultant and reviewer. You may have seen him on NE Cable or some other Boston station.  More likely you heard him pontificating about films on NPR, TKK, RKO, New Hampshire Public Radio, or any number of other stations he's been on, but one thing is certain, he loves, and knows, film.