WINNING THE OSCARS, Part One

It looks like the writer's strike is over. Let's hope so. Now we can pay attention to the Oscars. Who got nominated and who will win. Some folks will spend time figuring out who will wear what or who they will date. This does not concern me but, I do love to figuring out who will win. Over the years I have consistently scored 80% or better in ALL of the Oscar categories, even those I have no idea about. How do I do it? There are some tricks, and I will share a few with you.

If you are in an office pool, or maybe placing a friendly wager with friends, these tips will help. I always have a small bet with the wife. Usually it's a back rub or something like that. I always win and I never get my back rub, but that's another story.

The very first thing to remember, the Oscars have absolutely nothing to do with quality. The best film rarely gets nominated and if it does, the odds are it won't win the prize. This is a popularity contest not unlike voting for your high school prom queen. Of course, it is not purely popularity, change blows in and can alter everything. I'll get into that in a second. The most basic tenet is remember, don't vote for what you think is the best film, think what do the folks in Hollywood think is the best film.  

The second thing to remember is be patient. Never fill out a ballot until the last possible second. Like political elections, last minute shifts occur all the time. The pundits expected Brokeback Mountain to win Best Picture in 2005, but Crash came out of nowhere to score that statuette. It was a shocker, but if you had waited, it was apparent a shift was happening.  This shift happened at the last second. There is a lesson here.  Be patient, keep your ear to the ground, wait as long as you can and then fill out your ballot.

The third axiom is start with Best Picture. Everything flows from there. Remind yourself about the first axiom, think like a voter in Hollywood. What will be the Best Picture? Best Pictures winners usually get Best Editing, Best Screenplay and the like. So start there. 

Here's another tip, figure out the easy ones first. Sometimes, there are simply clear favorites. Best Animated Film is usually an easy one. Voting for Pixar is a safe bet. Scan the list of categories, find the easy ones and vote for them. The harder categories will come into view a little later.

Speaking of later, in my next article, I will show how other awards can give you a leg up on how the Academy members will vote. For example, if a film wins Best Film at the Director's Guild, how does that translate into an Oscar or does it?

Garen has been sitting in the dark for over 30 years as an film exhibitor, consultant and reviewer. You may have seen him on NE Cable or some other Boston station.  More likely you heard him pontificating about films on NPR, TKK, RKO, New Hampshire Public Radio, or any number of other stations he's been on, but one thing is certain, he loves, and knows, film.