It is interesting to be in this situation, with both major political parties retaining some drama regarding their nominee for the presidential contest. But I have a feeling that the Republican nominee may get pretty much settled tomorrow. McCain's secret weapon is a rule difference in the Republican party- many of the primaries there, unlike those of the Dems, are winner-take-all. That structural element tomorrow might vastly magnify McCain's edge. McCain is only the first choice of 44% of Republican voters, but if he gets more votes than the other Republican contenders, he walks away with all the convention delegates.
The Republican party has 1,020 delegates at stake in the fifteen primaries and six caucuses tomorrow. To become the nominee, McCain needs 1,191 delegates. He may not go over the top, but it is likely that he will make enough progress to essentially settle things.
How about the Dems? Well, no such situation there. Obama and Clinton are locked in a seriously close race, and without the winner-take-all rules it is very unlikely that either will close the deal tomorrow. It is a nice change of pace that they are now speaking in a more civil mode and that Bill has been granted a vacation from playing attack dog, but I fear that the harsh words may return if neither can open up some daylight over their rival.
In terms of the cold numbers, a Democratic Party contender needs to line up 2025 delegates before he/she can declare the nomination his/hers. Sheesh, it's easier to write about the Republican contest, because that does not require gendering the sentences! Anyway, instead of winner-take-all, the Dem primaries have a proportional representation thing that is too complicated to explain in the space I have here. But I will mention that a candidate needs to get at least 15% of the popular vote to get any delegates at all. By the way, I doubt that any of this is in the Constitution-it just evolved with the political party system. Wikipedia mentions that tomorrow's voting will be the largest ever simultaneous state presidential primaries event. By comparison, only about 1% of delegates had been selected by early February in the 2000 election cycle, whereas Super Tuesday 2008 shall see 52% of the Democratic and 41% of the Republican delegates awarded. So, just as winters are getting shorter with climate change, so too is the primary season getting shorter by virtue of States struggling to cast their votes ahead of other States. Anyway, do your duty as a citizen and vote tomorrow if there is a primary of caucus in your State. I'll see you back on Gather tomorrow evening to yammer about the returns.
Could you bring the hot mulled cider & fresh baked cookies?
rate
email
print
link to this page
Comments: 19
I will be at the Democratic caucus for my state, Washington, on Saturday, Feb. 9th. In our state the party decides who gets the delegate, so it is really important for anyone living in the state of Washington to go to the caucus at 1:00 p.m., Saturday, Feb. 9th, in your precinct - which may not be where you normally vote, so check out the location. You get there late, you snooze, you lose.
It did have the unfortunate result in 2000 of electing the candidate who received fewer popular votes, due to the fact that the Electoral College, like the U.S. Senate, increases the voting power of citizens of the smaller States of the USA. Since, as stated, the Senate does over-represent the citizens of the smaller states, there is no way to get enought votes together to change that provision.
But I digress, we were talking about the primary system created by the political parties. Which is weird enough!
Interestingly, you can see the philosophical differences between the two parties in their primary rules. The Republicans like order, despise conflict amongst themselves (it shows "weakness," and love the heir-apparent concept...so they have winner take all primaries to settle on a nominee quicker. The Democrats like disorder, inclusion of multiple viewpoints, and "may the best man/woman win"...so they have proportional delegate apportioning.
As noted, the Republican race could very well be (essentially) over by Tuesday night. The Democratic race may go into March. While there is potential for a brokered convention, I personally don't see it happening. Either Hillary or Obama will likely pull away once the results of Super Tuesday are in - not that either will come away with a overwhelming lead, but it will set the stage for this weekends caucuses and primaries in several states and the following Tuesday's MD/DC/VA primaries. My guess is that if Hillary gets the momentum coming out of the Beltway votes she'll pick up delegates quickly after that. On the other hand, if Obama's recent surge can reach critical mass during the next two Tuesdays, I think he'll get a winning tailwind.
But, as they say, it really is the votes that count (not the pundits).
Tomorrow night may be too early, Chris. A certain public radio station here in California is predicting that, due to the extremely tight battle between Clinton and Obama, it may not be until Wednesday and possibly even Thursday that either be "declared". What a marvelous, exciting time in our history!
I ought not to get caught saying this out loud but. From the its exciting to watch standpoint. I hope the polls are right and we have a split of the delegates tomorrow.
it would means we get to enjoy several weeks if not months of both candidates slugging it out rhetorically speaking.
One possible sticky wicket is California, Lots of mail in ballots which may trend toward Hillary, since they went out before New Hampshire and Baracks surge in popularity.
Throw into the mix all the decertified electronic voting machines which means a hand count. It could confuse the results from exit polls the networks use to declare the expected winner.
Exciting stuff indeed
For the Republicans of course the logical guess is mcCain winning most states, ending up short of the delegate total needed for the nomination but with a commanding lead over his competition. Quite a change from back when he had to take out a loan to stayin the race.
I hope that it will be civil enough to keep all the disparate elements of the party together in November. The Republicans will duck that issue somewhat by getting it all over with earlier, but I think they clearly also face a challenge of keeping it together with tax cutters, anti-abortion people, religious anti-gay activists, libertarians, fiscal conservatives, and you name it under the same tent.
Both parties i believe face challenges in keeping the base energized without chasing independents or special constitutencies from jumping ship to a third party or just by staying home come election day.