by Lori F.
Member since:
December 12, 2006

Transcript ofCHAT WITH MARK LYNAS, AUTHOR OF "SIX DEGREES: OUR FUTURE ON A HOTTER PLANET" ON MONDAY, FEBRUARY 4th from 2:30-3:30 p.m. ET.

February 01, 2008 03:37 PM EST (Updated: February 04, 2008 04:01 PM EST)
views: 321 | rating: 10/10 (6 votes) | comments: 75
 

What would happen if the earth's temperature increased by six degrees? 

It may not sound like a big change, but the results would completely reshape our world almost beyond recognition. On Sunday, February 10th at 8 p.m. ET, the National Geographic Channel is airing "Six Degrees Could Change The World." The program is based on Mark Lynas' (www.marklynas.gather.com) book "Six Degrees: Our Future On A Hotter Planet." 

We are fortunate to have Mark join us on Monday, February 4th from 2:30-3:30 p.m. ET to chat live with Gather members about the environment and global warming.  If you are unable to attend the chat, please feel free to leave Mark a question in the comment thread below.

More information about this episode can be found here. http://channel.nationalgeographic.com/channel/sixdegrees/

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Mark Lynas, a National Geographic Emerging Explorer, is a journalist, environmental activist, and the author of two books: High Tide: News from a Warming World and, most recently, The Carbon Calculator, which shows how people can calculate and reduce their carbon footprints.  His journalism has included regular contributions to the Guardian, Independent, and other newspapers.  he writes a biweekly column for the New Stateman magazine and blogs for the London Daily Telegraph. He is also a regular contributor to television and radio discussions and a well-known public speaker on the subject of climate change.  Lynas lives in Wolvercote, Oxford, with his wife, Maria; son, Tom; and daughter, Rosa.

During the Chat: How To Join The Conversation

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Comments: 75

Lori F. Feb 1, 2008, 4:03pm EST
Thanks Julie.
Renee (Pres of Baby James Foundation) ~. Feb 1, 2008, 11:32pm EST
This sounds really interesting thanks
Lori F. Feb 1, 2008, 11:38pm EST
Thanks Renee.
Mark Y. Feb 2, 2008, 12:53am EST
Nice work Lori! He has a first chapter up. This is the 1 degree description. 2 is tougher. six degrees is an extinction level catastrophe! Expect militant naysayers to come bearing false fruit.
Lori F. Feb 2, 2008, 11:28am EST
Thanks Kathleen.

Mark I am totally prepared I hope you come to the chat.
Cheryl R. Feb 2, 2008, 11:05pm EST
Lori, I don't have a question now, but I hope I can make the chat. Thanks for hosting.
Chris W. Feb 3, 2008, 11:58am EST
I hope that I may be able to join the chat. But if not, here is the thing on my mind after reading Six Degrees.
Mr. Lynas: You describe the expanding drought conditions in Australia which are now having a negative impact on agriculture, and convincing several coastal communities there to construct expensive desalination plants. After you wrote the book, public concern with climate change, among other things, resulted in John Howard's Conservative Party losing an election and Howard actually losing his legislature seat.

Here in the USA, we appear to have wide public concern about climate change, but not the degree of public urgency that is generated by a public perception that we are seeing negative effects now. How can we break through this opinion barrier without waiting for a disaster to mold public opinion?
Lori F. Feb 3, 2008, 1:52pm EST
Cheryl I hope you can make it too.

Chris excellent!
Austin Cushing Feb 3, 2008, 6:12pm EST
This comment is to let you know that this content has reached ten comments, and as such has been removed from Comment Speedway! Congratulations!
Lori F. Feb 4, 2008, 2:29pm EST
Welcome to gather Mark. Thank you for joining us today to talk about your book.
Baldy McBrennan Feb 4, 2008, 2:32pm EST
Welcome to Gather Mark. This was a very well written book. And scary as to what six degrees would do to our planet! Here is my question. Why can't we stop ourselves from tampering with the Earth's ecosystem? I think of it like smoking or eating too many fatty foods. We know it is bad for us, yet we don't seem to be taking the kind of measures that would start making a difference.
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 2:32pm EST
Hi there Lori. It's nice to have something to talk about other than the Superbowl.
Lori F. Feb 4, 2008, 2:35pm EST
Very true Mark. I read your book and must say how facinating. How long did it take you to write it?
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 2:38pm EST
Hi Baldy (though you look to have plenty of hair) - it's no so much a question of tampering with the Earth's system as learning to live within its confines. Like all other animals and plants, we eventually need to learn to live within a limited ecosystem, with limited resources. As part of that ecosystem - and we have just as much right to be here as anything else - we will always be tampering with it, but we need to do so in a way which isn't so wantonly destructive.
Lori F. Feb 4, 2008, 2:38pm EST
It is hard to imagine that what seems like a small change...6 degrees could have such a dramatic effect on so many aspects of life.
Linda H. Feb 4, 2008, 2:40pm EST
A while back, The New York Times had an article that explored why Europe is greener than we are. Do you think that America will ever catch up to European standards? What would we need to do to do in order to make head way in this area?
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 2:40pm EST
How long did it take? About 3 years, I guess, though earlier books meant that I already had most of the background. But I had to plough through dozens of journals and do it all by 'hand' - no keyword searches could subsitute for the breadth of information I was looking for. Most of the time I didn't even know what I was looking for, so no point in doing a search! I just had to find what the scientists had been writing about, and figure out where it fitted into the overall degree-by-degree picture.
Chris W. Feb 4, 2008, 2:41pm EST
Hi Mark- this is Chris W. I hope you enjoyed my review, if you have seen it. Have you seen my question up above in the thread? Do you have any thoughts on that topic?
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 2:43pm EST
Well, Linda, that's an interesting question - and I'll try to answer it as inoffensively as possible, given that I'm currently a guest in this country. I think the US has a culture which historically values consumption and consumerism higher than pretty much anything else - and there's been a kind of frontier mentality where the natural world has been seen as ours to exploit. In Europe we haven't had the luxury of a frontier with apparently unlimited resources for a long time, so we've perhaps had to think more about how to live a little more lightly. But I think there's a whole book in this - I'm just giving my ill-informed view!
Liz K. Feb 4, 2008, 2:43pm EST
I bought your book but haven't had a chance to read it yet. It is in the queue. We have done a lot of destructive things as a race. In your opinion, what are some of the positive things that we as a human race have contributed during our time here?
Lori F. Feb 4, 2008, 2:44pm EST
Mark you hear people say that global warming and things like that are all media hype...how do you respond to those individuals?
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 2:46pm EST
Yes Chris - I think that's another interesting puzzle. In Australia the global warming issue was really the key one which made John Howard look like a dinosaur and lost him the election - and it's notable that his closeness to Bush became a millstone around his neck on other issues too. You'll notice that both McCain and the Democratic candidates all have sensible policies on global warming, though it remains to be seen how much of a salient issue it is in the real election (as opposed to the primaries).
Linda H. Feb 4, 2008, 2:46pm EST
That was a great answer to my question and I think that you are spot on. I really try to be aware of my carbon footprint, and yet I am still amazed at how much garbage I produce each week. And I'm only one person!
Julia Schrenkler Feb 4, 2008, 2:48pm EST
Hi Mark, glad you're here for a live chat. Building on Lori's question, I'm curious about how you respond to the line of thought that this is just another cycle in the earth's evolving climate?
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 2:48pm EST
Lori asks what I respond to the contrarians. That's a difficult question because they all say different things. Some say it's the sun. Others say there's a conspiracy by the UN to run the world, and that environmentalism is the new communism. If there was anything coherent it would perhaps be easier to respond, but there is a tendency to latch on to whatever supports the preconceived ideology. So most of the time I just ignore it - no-one in science or policy-making takes this view particularly seriously.
Lori F. Feb 4, 2008, 2:48pm EST
I am with Linda I try and recycle and live as green as I can but I too am amazed the amount of garbage my family produces each week.
Karin Karhem Feb 4, 2008, 2:49pm EST
I'd love to know about your writing process for the book. What is a typical writing day like for you? Do you write in an office? Out in the field? By long hand or on a computer? Thanks!
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 2:51pm EST
...but since Julia makes a specific point, I'll deal with that one. Of course the planet has experience cycles of climate change before; my book is full of historical and geological detail about paleoclimate, because that's one of the best ways to try and understand what things will be like in a warmer future. But saying that natural climate change in the past means that current climate change is therefore natural is a logical non-sequiteur. It's like saying that because someone died of cancer that everyone who dies has cancer. Instead, the geological past can show us that hot periods in the Earth's past were invariably connected to higher CO2 levels - it's the planet's thermostat. And we're turning it up a lot faster than nature has ever done before.
Julia Schrenkler Feb 4, 2008, 2:53pm EST
Thanks for the follow up, Mark, and I'll add your book to my "to read" list.

________________
Julia Schrenkler
Interactive Producer, Minnesota Public Radio
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 2:54pm EST
Hi Karin - my life as a writer has not been very glamorous for the last book! I spent a lot of time sitting in a dimly-lit library basement, scanning through electronic journals on my laptop, and methodically saving PDF copies of relevant articles onto my hard drive. Then I'd cycle home and spend the rest of the week in my office/shed in the garden going through them all. Later on in the serious writing stage I'd figure out how to give each story some colour (a lot of internet work) without actually going there and writing it up in reasonably legible prose...
Bridget Riley Feb 4, 2008, 2:55pm EST
I read in your biography that you are a National Geographic Emerging Explorer. What responsibilities does this entail?
Lori F. Feb 4, 2008, 2:56pm EST
Mark I have heard the comment...on any given day you can make a case for either global warming or the coming of the next ice age...what would your response to that be?
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 2:57pm EST
E.K. asks what humans have done which is good. Where do I start? I love being a human. What can I say? We have parties, we fall in love, we go into space and look down at our wonderful planet... no other species has ever been able to see our Earth in all its glory before. I think James Lovelock or someone says that through human eyes Gaia (our living planet) sees herself. Amen to that.
Liz K. Feb 4, 2008, 2:57pm EST
Is it possible to pinpoint a period of time in human history when our actions majorly triggered a negative change in the Earth that has lead to its state today?
Chris W. Feb 4, 2008, 2:58pm EST
Mark, in my view the two largest obstacles to dealing with climate change are the USA and China. In recent years, I have come to see our relationship as a co-dependent one- which enables both of us to shrug off our leadership responsibility in this critical challenge, by blaming the other guy and saying "you first". Do you see this? Do you see a solution?
Brian R. Feb 4, 2008, 2:58pm EST
Hi Mark! I'm curious how your book will translate into the National Geographic special. How did that come about? Did you write the book thinking it will be made for TV eventually, or is this a pleasant surprise?
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 3:00pm EST
My response - to the claim that it can be global warming one day and a new ice age the next - would be that this is garbage. No-one can credibly make the case that we're going to see a new ice age, especially with CO2 levels higher than for a million years. It's physically impossible. I know that back in the 70s sometime there was supposedly a scare about global cooling, but it wasn't comparable with the solid scientific consensus that exists today on global warming. We understand the earth system today much better for a start. We've got data now - from satellites, isotopic records, ice cores etc - they could only have dreamt of then.
Jeffrey Martin Feb 4, 2008, 3:01pm EST
Hi Mark, Very cool to have you here on Gather. I have enjoyed your writing style and I am looking forward to the National Geographic special. Have you ever thought of crossing over into fiction and writing an "environmental thriller"? Maybe you have one collecting dust somewhere?
Lori F. Feb 4, 2008, 3:01pm EST
Jeffrey took the words out of my mouth. I was just about to ask you the same thing.
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 3:02pm EST
Chris - yes, it's true that the US has been hiding behind China, which is a bit unfair when you compare the per capita CO2 emissions of each country (19 tonnes in the US, 3 tonnes in China). The only way out is for the US to shift first - and hopefully this will happen with the next administration. The Chinese already have some good policies though: they have a strong strategy on renewable energy, higher standards on car mileage than US cars do, a rapidly-emerging solar power sector...
Chris W. Feb 4, 2008, 3:03pm EST
Other than here on Gather, the ranks of the climate change denial squad are getting thin. By all means, let's not waste time discussing their nonsense!
matt f. Feb 4, 2008, 3:04pm EST
Hi Mark- What areas of the world are most environmentally conscious? What areas of the world are more willing to change their habits to alter their ecological footprints? I see the U.S. as late getting out of the gate on this issue. Thanks.
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 3:04pm EST
Well Brian - I guess I though that it might make good TV one day, but it wasn't something I spent much time arranging - I knew that some day they would come to me, and National Geographic duly did! Being an 'emerging explorer' helped, but it's a pretty arms-length relationship - it's not like I've moved to Washington, I just go on and do my own thing.
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 3:06pm EST
Lori and Jeffrey mention the 'environmental thriller' - I don't think I could ever write fiction. I simply haven't got the imagination. Whenever I read I novels I think 'I could never do this'. That's the point - Six Degrees isn't fiction, it's projection. I'll leave fiction to the experts!
Lori F. Feb 4, 2008, 3:06pm EST
Mark what is you opinion of Al Gore?
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 3:08pm EST
Hi Matt - good question. Leading the pack out front at the moment is Germany in particular - they've got half a million solar panels on their roofs, and a rapidly-growing wind power sector too. Many other countries have strong CO2 targets, but they've yet to come up with policies to actually implement them. In the international negotiations the EU is really the good guy - at Bali they were arguing for cuts of up to 45% by 2020 amongst industrialised countries, with the aim of keeping global temperatures below 2 degrees. The US didn't even engage in this debate.
Baldy McBrennan Feb 4, 2008, 3:09pm EST
Mark, My brother and his wife live in a community that is not big on recycling. As a result, their children have no clue about how much waste they are producing. Do you have any thoughts on teaching kids about respecting the earth and pitching in? I'm a firm believer that every drop in the bucket counts.
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 3:09pm EST
I think Al Gore has done great work, and I won't hear a word said against him!
Lori F. Feb 4, 2008, 3:10pm EST
I am a Gore fan so you wont get any argument from me.
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 3:11pm EST
Yep, I agree, Mr McBrennan - teaching children right from wrong about how they treat the planet is as important as teaching them right from wrong about how they treat each other. We don't allow violence towards other people, so why allow it towards the biosphere?
Robin Noack Feb 4, 2008, 3:13pm EST
You mentioned earlier what a consumptive country the U.S. is. In your opinion, how much worse will our (meaning the U.S.) ecological footprint have to get before we start making more major changes in the right direction? When the wealthy oceanside home owners are underwater? Are you optimistic that we can turn it around or our we too selfish?
Karin Karhem Feb 4, 2008, 3:15pm EST
A lot of companies are now creating positions for sustainability managers, which I think is great! Can you tell me what are some of the less obvious suggestions (besides recycling soda cans) you give to businesses that help reduce their ecological footprint?
Chris W. Feb 4, 2008, 3:17pm EST
Mark- on the financial aspects of combatting climate change, many here in the USA cling to the Bush argument that our economic progress is too important to endanger by spending money on renewables or taxing carbon. Do you see the German experience of creating an entire new industry as a good counter-argument to this?
Jennifer Hodge Feb 4, 2008, 3:18pm EST
During your research for Six Degrees, did you stumble upon any piece of information or result that blew you away?
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 3:19pm EST
Robin, I seriously hope that changes will be underway pretty soon - I mean, they have to be. But there's already signs of it, in terms of the massive rise in awareness of these issues. They're being taken very seriously indeed, and that's the first step. This is going to need governments to work together though; it's not something individuals can do on their own. Nor do we all have to stop consuming everything - we need to try to close the production cycle though so that we throw out less stuff and recycle more and more.
Doyle ( IS SOOO 7 for 7 soon... ) C. Feb 4, 2008, 3:21pm EST
Welcome Mark and thanks for this Lori . . . I'm curious about the possibility of trend reversal . . . the exponential changes may have already tipped the scales . . . and we live in a divisive, consumer driven and arguably very selfish nation right now . . . meaning any change might be very slow as well . . . .

Honestly . . . do you see a sunny future (pardon the pun) . . . or something a tad more dismal?

Regards,
Doyle I <~~~~~
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 3:21pm EST
Karin, some businesses are already doing some pretty major things. The first is to try and work out what their emissions actually are - a footprinting exercise. Then they can figure out the easiest reductions, which might well save them money. Switching to green power is another easy win, and there may be room to reduce employee travel and do more video-conferencing for meetings.
Bridget Riley Feb 4, 2008, 3:22pm EST
I vacation in an area where there is a real disagreement over wind farms. What is your opinion?
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 3:24pm EST
On the economics stuff, Chris, the Stern Report produced by the British Government is an invaluable resource. Nicholas Stern showed that it's far cheaper to reduce emissions now than to suffer the progressively more catastrophic impacts of climate change in the future. (1% of economic growth now, to avoid 20% loss in future). Most of the early changes would actually have negative cost - they're win-win scenarios, particularly energy efficiency stuff. It really is a no-brainer in economic terms - the people who argue against this are either vested interests of lack imagination.
Robin Noack Feb 4, 2008, 3:25pm EST
This has been a fascinating chat. Thanks for answering our questions Mark. If you had not pursued journalism/writing, what other field do you see yourself in?
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 3:25pm EST
Doyle - I'm pretty optimistic on this, because I've worked on it long enough to remember a time when no-one gave a fig, and it all felt rather lonely. Now it's the kind of issue that swings elections and wins Nobel prizes. Thinking of a clean energy future is no longer an act of faith - it seems to me to be much more likely than a future with more coal and oil.
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 3:28pm EST
Bridget, wind farms are a matter of subjective aesthetics. I happen not to mind them, and would be happy to live nearby them. But given that other people object so strongly (most wind farms are now held up in planning in the UK now because of this) it's probably better to build the biggest wind farms a certain distance offshore. You only have to go 30 miles or so offshore for them to be well over the horizon.
Lori F. Feb 4, 2008, 3:29pm EST
Mark looks like we are out of time. I would like to thank you so much for talking with us today.

I would urge anyone to read Marks book.
Linda H. Feb 4, 2008, 3:29pm EST
Thank you for hosting this Lori. And thanks Mark. This was extremely educational.
Julia Schrenkler Feb 4, 2008, 3:31pm EST
Thank you for joining us here on Gather Mark.
Lori F. Feb 4, 2008, 3:31pm EST
Mark I will leave this up if you care to check back from time to time for any questions from Gather members that werent able to make it.

Mark wonderful book.

Read it...this book will change your outlook on life.
Mark Lynas Feb 4, 2008, 3:32pm EST
Thank you!
Doyle ( IS SOOO 7 for 7 soon... ) C. Feb 4, 2008, 3:32pm EST
I tend to agree Mark. In fact, it's inescapable . . . just a matter of when really, in my opinion. The only problem is the deep pockets of those with vested interests in preventing progress . . . though I see more hybrid cars on the road and other signs here and there . . . and was encouraged by Denmark's ability after being 99% dependent on oil imports during the Arab Oil Embargo . . . transitioning to an oil and energy exporting nation . . . it CAN and WILL be done . . . just 'when'? As you so aptly pointed out, financially better for us sooner than later and for them (the vested interests) better later than sooner. My concerns are the time it will take and the costs we will pay for that time.

Regards,
Doyle I <~~~~~
Doyle ( IS SOOO 7 for 7 soon... ) C. Feb 4, 2008, 3:33pm EST
Thanks Lori! Mark! :)

Regards,
Doyle I <~~~~~
Chris W. Feb 4, 2008, 3:39pm EST
Yes, Lori thanks for hosting, Mark thanks for writing the book!
Mark Y. Feb 4, 2008, 10:01pm EST
Sorry I messed it, but I'm doing what what Mark Lynas says he can't do and write it as fiction. Stay tuned. For the details of the science check Realclimate These guys are the real deal.

You've done a good thing here Lori! Bravo!
Tina Coruth Feb 6, 2008, 9:47am EST
Very interesting. I wish I could get the National Geographic Channel. This book is going on my must read list. Thank you!

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