The recession needs to be called now and be taken care of now for any hope of a GOP win in the 2008 election.
The Federal Reserve Bank will soon drop the interest another 100 points soon to take care of the recession.
If the Federal Reserve Bank needs to raise the interest rate in the months just prior to the 2008 election and the people are doing ok then, the GOP will have some kind of chance to win, otherwise not.
And one can watch and expect for this to happen, it's called 'Playing with the economy'.
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Comments: 51
Politicians have to do these things to look important, but really at this point I do not see any easy ways out of the hole we have dug. Secretary Paulson himself admits that there is no easy escape from the subprime mortgage mess. He is still struggling to try to get mortgage victims and the loan industry to accept the limited freeze on ARMs that he cooked up.
This tho will have nothing to do with the political stand of the republican party or even help anyone that is running for president in 2008.
Why don't they make an effort to show that the invasion of Iraq and the 2 trillion dollars that is costing us has an equivalent return instead of neverending oil prices rises and recession.
Please. What tanked AMerica was an out of control Real Estate market. Everyone thought they were rich from the equities in their homes, and with record low rates, they refinanced, spent a ton of money, and even when that money was gone, they confidently loaded up their credit cards. And then as all things go through the cycles of up and down, the housing market crashed because it went way to high.
Clearly, both sides were drinking from the same well.
This is a regular pattern now in America as the gambler class has taken over the financial industry and runs from one area of the economy to the other manipulting it and looting it and in general causing lots of damage to the rest of the country who just wants a safe place to invest their money.
You mean the Real Estate BOOM. I know Real Estate agents and Mortgage brokers. They are YOU AND ME. They rode the wave just like everybody else. There were no fortune tellers.
Markets go up, markets go down. That was a huge up market and nobody thought it would crash the way it did. The losers are the ones who thought short term and signed adjustable rate mortgages and bought at the top of the market. The flippers are a huge part of the problem as are people who bought more than they could afford because they could get an initial low rate and felt they had a saftey margin in that they could sell, take a profit, then buy again. People aren't as stupid as you think -- they were gaming the system and they got burned on the down market.
Individual responsibility.
If one had no money down as stated their income high enough they could buy a new home. Appraisers were asked to appraise the house enough to get the necessary second or the first.
Then the prices of the real estate dropped.
This happens all the time in real estate buying as people do continually get excited. However, if one has 20% down and can afford a loan this is probably the best time to buy a new home for the next three or four years.
By my standards of justice unequal treatment or slander of someone is a greater trespass, since you did not see fit to call Don on the bed-wetter statement as name-calling ... if you really want to be fair, perhaps you should delete your own entire article.
I find name calling a childish thing that people do out of anger when they don't take the time to think about what they could write to get their point across. And I see no need for it.
I usually don't read all the posts that are in the articles I post, and I should do that prior to criticizing anyone.
However I feel that one can be courteous and still get their point across.
Apology accepted.
> And I see no need for it.
We differ here, I do see a need for name calling, when it is
justified. It is not justified for the right to constantly use
these terms, and then associate them mentally with the
left, and the left does nothing about it because they think
they are being above the argument. They are setting
a precedent of being dismissed and impotent.
Being above the argument, and non-responsive, and letting
morons call you names or be rude and doing nothing about
it is not standing up for yourself and encourages more of
the same.
Morons like Don are morons NOT because I want to call them
name to make them feel bad, they are morons because they
want to use hatred humiliation bullying and psychological
associative words tricks to sidetrack the discussion, and thus
are required NOT to be treated like a participant in a discussion
or a citizen partipating in democracy, until they can participate
according to the rules
You cannot just pretend a discussion is taking place when it
isn't, so I am trying to be logical and have a purpose in my
name calling.
As for the real estate bust, that was predictable and predicted. The subprime mortgage fiasco was a disaster waiting to happen and it did. There was never any reason for the Federal government to allow this type of disastrous loan aside from greed. Now we are reaping the whirlwind of scam artists and get rich quick schemes.
Bruce: I don't think that not engaging in name calling puts you "above" the argument. Rather it allows you to make your points without turning off the other person to the extent they stop listening. Now in Don's case, it probably won't do any good since he consistently engages in either direct name calling, or cutesy-poo spellings on people's names. To me their statements lose any validity the instant they start that.
Oh please! The liberals on Gather are the worst name callers and exactly why I don't much give a damn what they think anymore. As for not adding to the discussion, I quote my last comment (sans the bed-wetting jab):
Markets go up, markets go down. That was a huge up market and nobody thought it would crash the way it did. The losers are the ones who thought short term and signed adjustable rate mortgages and bought at the top of the market. The flippers are a huge part of the problem as are people who bought more than they could afford because they could get an initial low rate and felt they had a saftey margin in that they could sell, take a profit, then buy again. People aren't as stupid as you think -- they were gaming the system and they got burned on the down market.
Individual responsibility.
-----------------------------
With that re-stated, I don't have ANY respect for those seeking to get the government to bail them out. Afterall, it is the taxpayers that will foot the bill for their stupidity.... and WE ALL KNOW that those 'poor' people who were 'victimized' (by their own stupidity/greed) will vote for who???? Obama/Clinton/Edwards. This is the liberal mindset in America -- the bed-wetting class.
Why is it that no matter what restaurant I go to during lunch I have to wait 20 minutes to get served? The lines are out the door. I went to Best Buy today at 3:30pm... and the store is doing great... everywhere I go I see a robust economy. The only people whining are the liberals and the driveby's... and we know their motive; they need something bad to report on for the election.
The economy is not fine when unemployment rises from 4.6% to 5.0% in one month and stock markets drop 6% in two weeks. The retailers are dead meat with nearly all of them down in sales. It is not a partisan issue. Both Democratic and Republican parties are equally innept when it comes to economic matters.
You seem to have no real understanding of the housing/subprime market situation. The problem is that so many of these loans were collateralized into CDOs and given high credit ratings. They were purchased by banks, investors and pension funds as higher rated securities than they actually were, with S&P, Fitch Ratings and Moody's Investors Services being either negligent or incompetent in determining the actual credit risk. It has undermined the financial security of all Americans and is causing more damage than the Savings & Loan and junk bond scandals of the past.
Dec/Jan are the months when companies that need to let go of employees pull the trigger... you always see a spike this time of year.
In my personal life I don't see any signs of recession. I clearly see an issue with the housing market, and many people are going to get hurt, but it's not going to bring the economy to a halt. This will be another bump in the road. One day though, if we are lucky, we can get a socialist and then the ecomony will forever boom and everybody will be happy. NOT.
The other thing is that even if you don't see any signs of recession in your own life, that doesn't mean that there isn't one. I'm fairly sure that the CEO of Exxon Mobile doesn't see any signs of recession in his personal life either. Simply because you personally don't see/feel something doesn't mean it doesn't exist.
I'm not saying that I've never insulted anyone, what I am saying is that your "put-on" Republican haughtiness makes you deserving of name-calling, and having your opinion being dismissed. That you cannot seem to stand without them. Both of them apparently bland rip-offs from Republican droning and right-wing radio. I do not do that.
You are demonstrably pathetic in that you cannot seem to stand on your own without using this macho dismissive contemptuous kind of insluting rhetoric, like bed-wetting, or Depends, some kind of blind adherence to the simple assumption that anyone who disagrees with you, or who is what you can characterize as Liberal is weak, lazy, immoral, senile, less-than-maschuline and worthy of making a joke, except you lack a sense of humor. You have to invoke the pseudo-terrorist kind of attitude in your argument because your whole world view is illogical and based on insults, trying to act tought and fit in and pretend you are strong at the expense of imagined critics.
The fact is that if you behaved this way in a real discussion you would be called out and your ass kicked. There are so many of you two-bit Rush wanna-bes that think you are clever because you can imitate this carefully crafted type of behavior. No, when I am insulting there is both a reason, and it is of my own crafting, and I am trying to say something other than, I'm a pretend member of this powerful "gang" that can act tough.
I would really think you were tough if you could exhibit some kind of ability of independent thought or action that was not some warmed over Rush caricature.
So, if Republicans can put on holier-than-thou airs by strutting to do things like making a national show of keep Teri Shiavo plugged in, or pretending that they are good by calling abortion murder in all cases and pretending to shed a tear over babies while doing everything they can to make millions of people's lives desolate, or like the Pharisees Republicans make a big show of being church going and trying to judge other people.
When you use your kind of rhetoric and insults you are saying you are not only holier than thou but you think you can judge things about other people by blithely running in with the herd and using the same language they do. Notice I haven't used any of the trademarked language of the left to attack you, I'm thinking for myself.
> going to happen with the subprime market. Many economists
> and other experts warned this was a bad idea and a train
> wreck waiting to happen from the very beginning.
Carolyn's right, Don you picked the really wrong issue to stand
up and do your Republican rant. Most of the other Republicans
have had the sense to look the other way on this issue and
just count their profits instead of drawing attention to themselves.
But maybe you didn't make any profits, is carrying Republicans
water is volunteer work for you? Wearing the brown shirt is
payment enough I suppose?
What I meant was that in my experience of the things I see everyday, I don't see a recession worthy of the hype. The office building where I work, has a number of companies there, and they just filled the capacity after losing two, and all the people there are driving new SUV/trucks... and not cheap ones, but the higher end models. No matter where I go in Central Florida, restaurants are always very busy (I know people have to eat, but not at restaurants).
The only issue, and I think it's yet to hit bottom, is the housing market. There are some people that bought more house than they could afford, and with the prices going down, they are unable to sell without taking a huge loss. I think the ones that are in real trouble are the people who bought in the $300 - 500k range. The property taxes are around $500 to $700 month, and if they got a bad adjustable rate, they could be in trouble.
There are upsides to that problem to though. Housing DEFLATION is going to allow people who thought they missed out buy a house. Property taxes are going to go down with lower prices, etc.
I think that there is a lot of hype on this issue. We seem to be entering a recession, but the nay sayers have been saying that all along with Bush in power.
water is volunteer work for you?"
I'm not in that business, but I own a home that I bought 8 years ago. So, I think I did pretty well since I bought way before the boom. I am waiting for two things: the vote on Amendment 1 in Florida (Portable Save Our Homes) and the bottom to hit. Then I may get a new house. Thank God we have Republicans running the state ;)
Ok Ms Negativity. We just elected a new Repub Governor after Jeb Bush's term ended. Guess they were doing something right.
I bet anything you live in a blue state... and that explains alot about why you think everything has gone to shit. What does that tell you?
(and sure enough, you reside in Seattle, WA... blue as blue can be).
Our Ferry fleet is undergoing renovation, they are fixing the roads, and the 520 bridge is going to have to be repaired. I heard a couple new cruise lines are going to make ports of call here, and our evil government has made sure that they dump their sewage into pumping stations rather than into Puget Sound.
So all in all we're doing quite well, thank you. I hope it holds given the conditions in most of the rest of the country.
Oh yeah, we're also home to the Striker Brigade. Just recently the base commander had to reverse a decision he had made to hold funerals once a week enmass for the troops. There was such an outcry about that that he was forced to return to the individual funerals that were being held before.
This is what I hear all the time. When you ask someone how things are they say it's really bad, but then you ask how is it for THEM and all of a sudden the picture isn't so gloom.
Florida is doing fine. I just talked with a friend who has been in the Real Estate industry for 20 years in Florida and I told her I thought the market has not reached bottom, but she says that the market has been picking up such that all the offices she knows about are very busy and all agents are busy. I still stand by my beliefs, but she is in the field and knows first hand what is happening right now.
Chalk it up to hype from the drive-bys and nervousness on Wall St.
You cannot wish away a recession by pretending there is not a lot of bad happening in a lot of places across the country. It's not an all or nothing, zero sum game. The midwest is hurting as jobs flood overseas. Companies are firing people right and left. The housing market is imploding both in terms of the subprime crisis and new home starts which ripples across the economy in many areas connected to the two.
You simply cannot wish a recession away by sticking your fingers in your ears and yelling "la la la". Doesn't work. It's been tried. Recession is not an opinion. It is a measure of economic indicators.
That's Government as 'bidness'.....which it is not. The Government is a SERVICE a Public Service not in the 'bidness' of making money but rather of serving the people. That's why Republicans can't and have had nointention of running good government.
They are interested in privatizing as much as possible so they can raid the treasury as has been done under W and Cheney. Look at the track record.
Interest rates have lowered by less than 100 "basis points" since you wrote this, contrary to your prediction. The point where you "stumbled into the truth" is when you said that interest rates must rise. However, you bungled that by saying it will happen before the election. It will certainly happen within the first year (and a half?) of the next administration, regardless of who the president is.
Something interesting has happened, economically, over the last month or so. Oil prices have gone down dramatically. Will this benefit McCain, or Obama? Who will spin it better? BTW: here's an excerpt from my Aug 7 piece, titled "Congressional Ban on Offshore Drilling Expires on Sep. 30th: What Will Dems Do? "
I'll do some speculating of my own, here. Democrats will try to take credit for the recent decrease in oil prices, which probably will continue until the election. I see oil breaking 100/barrel, heading downward, before election day, if the ban expires. Oh, yeah, they'll blame "ending the ban" on Republicans, of course, to the MoveOn crowd.
I predicted positive change, and it happened! LOL! I'm "pulling your leg," Richard! A very good, and interesting post, even after 8 months!