Be in US Treasuries three months ago.
My solar company stock is up quite a lot, and the other stuff down some.
The future, as those with the British Pound, Euro, or Yen, see good buys in the States they will buy the stock. Therefore, I don't see much of a drop, except in the Dollar market. However, still it's not wise to try and time this current market, but outside investment will be growing. And Treasuries, which is where the money is at now won't be so hot either, for as you know when the bond rate goes down the value goes up, which is what has been going on the last few months. Want to make money? Be in bonds three months ago.
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Comments: 9
Maybe! But maybe not.
There are these things that are cycles in the financial market in the US. Basically the cycles are caused by cheep money and stopped with more expensive money, and at times are so over-board that the money needs to be really expensive to stop the cycle.
The last two Housing bubbles of 1985 or so when the ten year bond rate went from around 15% to around 7% in 1985 or so caused a bubble in the housing market as the rate to get a loan was less and less then around 1991 when the bond rate went to around 5% the housing market fell apart as the ten year bond rate started to rise up, in 1995 the rate for the ten year bond was at around 8% again and folks and people saw the price of their homes down quite a lot but in reality only around ten per cent. Now the same thing again in the year 2000 the ten year bond rate was almost 7% and from that the bond rate dropped and dropped step by step to below 4 % in 2005, this cheap money cause many homes to be sold in the US and caused many mortgage and loan companies to lend the money with little or even no money down, thus causing another housing bubble, or the current one.
Then to stop that, as the fed saw that as inflationary, and rightly so in my opinion, they started to raise the bond rate. Which occurred, and now after some time passed the fed needed to lower the bond rate in order to make the money flow easier, which also has occurred.
Now then the cycle tops and bottoms according to some are basically a bottom bond rate of around 1% and a top rate of around 5%. At the present time the economy is growing at around 2.8% and is one were to add the 1% sort of assumed bottom bond rate, then that about where the ten year bond is at now or 3.8%. For today the 13 week Treasury is 3.18%, the five year Treasury Note is at 3.75%, the ten year Treasury Note is at 4.21%. And using the 1% bond rate at around the low of where the cycle will go I'd say that we're around the low point now, however, it'll probably go a bit lower as we in the US usually over-do things.
So! Is the blood on the street? Not yet as the over-doing hasn't occurred yet. But close.
What to do next as the bond rate rises to that 5% + the economy rate? Well I would suggest equities, however, one needs to be careful in that at this time, as the others are still overdoing their thing.
Thanks anyway!